2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[Schiff for Senate]

Not sure if I showed it already, but I carved a 4-4 Democratic gerrymander in MO a month back (I just edited it to make it slightly cleaner). It successfully splits St Louis and suburbs 3 ways, but I was surprised at how hard it is to divide Kansas City and keep the maps somewhat clean, so I just left one Safe Democratic seat there.

 

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The loss of the supermajority in the State House is a gigantic embarrassment that will have real consequences for redistricting. As for Eigel, I remember him storming down the halls of the legislature at the end of session 2018 screaming about his bill getting killed (his fellow Republicans killed it because no one liked him). Since then he has been a thorn in the side of the Majority in the Senate, a notoriously dysfunctional body in the best of times. Four of six the members of the "Conservative Caucus" are sad losers that no one can standm hard to believe Denny Hoskins puts up with the rest of them but I suppose they have their uses.

It sounds a bit harsh that they'd kill a bill not because of its policies but because of a dislike of the author.

This ain’t unique, South Carolina has about the same guy. Our Eigel is Rep. Jon Hill

[Schiff for Senate]

The loss of the supermajority in the State House is a gigantic embarrassment that will have real consequences for redistricting. As for Eigel, I remember him storming down the halls of the legislature at the end of session 2018 screaming about his bill getting killed (his fellow Republicans killed it because no one liked him). Since then he has been a thorn in the side of the Majority in the Senate, a notoriously dysfunctional body in the best of times. Four of six the members of the "Conservative Caucus" are sad losers that no one can standm hard to believe Denny Hoskins puts up with the rest of them but I suppose they have their uses.

It sounds a bit harsh that they'd kill a bill not because of its policies but because of a dislike of the author.

This ain’t unique, South Carolina has about the same guy. Our Eigel is Rep. Jon Hill

If this is always true KS's might be Aaron Coleman (D), though he deserves it (his Wikipedia page explains why).

[Roll Roons]

The loss of the supermajority in the State House is a gigantic embarrassment that will have real consequences for redistricting. As for Eigel, I remember him storming down the halls of the legislature at the end of session 2018 screaming about his bill getting killed (his fellow Republicans killed it because no one liked him). Since then he has been a thorn in the side of the Majority in the Senate, a notoriously dysfunctional body in the best of times. Four of six the members of the "Conservative Caucus" are sad losers that no one can standm hard to believe Denny Hoskins puts up with the rest of them but I suppose they have their uses.

It sounds a bit harsh that they'd kill a bill not because of its policies but because of a dislike of the author.

This ain’t unique, South Carolina has about the same guy. Our Eigel is Rep. Jon Hill

Anthony Sabatini fits the bill in Florida.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The loss of the supermajority in the State House is a gigantic embarrassment that will have real consequences for redistricting. As for Eigel, I remember him storming down the halls of the legislature at the end of session 2018 screaming about his bill getting killed (his fellow Republicans killed it because no one liked him). Since then he has been a thorn in the side of the Majority in the Senate, a notoriously dysfunctional body in the best of times. Four of six the members of the "Conservative Caucus" are sad losers that no one can standm hard to believe Denny Hoskins puts up with the rest of them but I suppose they have their uses.

It sounds a bit harsh that they'd kill a bill not because of its policies but because of a dislike of the author.

This ain’t unique, South Carolina has about the same guy. Our Eigel is Rep. Jon Hill

Anthony Sabatini fits the bill in Florida.

Anthony Sabatini - helping pass fair maps in Florida through his mere existence. All the power to him!

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1483553784521531400?s=20\

Found this interesting.

[Schiff for Senate]

Not sure if I showed it already, but I carved a 4-4 Democratic gerrymander in MO a month back (I just edited it to make it slightly cleaner). It successfully splits St Louis and suburbs 3 ways, but I was surprised at how hard it is to divide Kansas City and keep the maps somewhat clean, so I just left one Safe Democratic seat there.

 

I see your 4-4 and raise you the following 6-2:

Yeah, but frankly (and I'm sure you are fully aware of this) your map is extremely bad-looking with random tendrils and very, very thin lines. My 4-4 map, while obviously less helpful, has one solidly Democratic seat (which isn't the case here) and, arguably more importantly, it still looks kind of clean - not nearly as bad as, say, IL or MD. Your map is much worse than either of those two states in terms of appearance, which matters.

Nonetheless, I must profess I'm still quite surprised that in any way a 6-2 Democratic map in MO is even possible. I'd imagine 5-3 would be the absolute maximum.

[bagelman]

Not sure if I showed it already, but I carved a 4-4 Democratic gerrymander in MO a month back (I just edited it to make it slightly cleaner). It successfully splits St Louis and suburbs 3 ways, but I was surprised at how hard it is to divide Kansas City and keep the maps somewhat clean, so I just left one Safe Democratic seat there.

 

I see your 4-4 and raise you the following 6-2:

DRA link?

[BoiseBoy]

House approved the map 86-67, but voted against the emergency clause 95-55 (needed 100). Unless votes switch on a subsequent version of the bill, courts will probably have to get involved.

Involved as in map drawing?

[GALeftist]

What is even the point of this? This map is pretty good, MO Democrats should honestly just take what they can get here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The current buzz is that the Senate Conservative Caucus is going to try to filibuster the Congressional map, this should be fun.

Amazing. Just amazing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This really might come down to Dems and whether they join with some Rs to survive the fillibuster. Very interesting redistricting cycle in MO overall

[GALeftist]

If Missouri Democrats screw up a guaranteed fair map two cycles in a row I will be very unhappy.

[lfromnj]

If Missouri Democrats screw up a guaranteed fair map two cycles in a row I will be very unhappy.

Technically speaking the current map is probably somewhat close to what a Federal court would have drawn atleast in St.Louis .White Democrats wanted to keep splitting St.Louis which was unlikely at this point. Overall very similar to Wisconsin losing its 9th seat in 2000. The biggest city lost its split seat and the white Dem seat was the one that had to go. I guess if you told Democrats they couldn't split St.Louis their map likely would have kept all of JeffCo instead of St Charles.

[MillennialModerate]

This really might come down to Dems and whether they join with some Rs to survive the fillibuster. Very interesting redistricting cycle in MO overall

Why would they not?

The alternative option is to see a 7-1 map.

The MO Supreme Court is 4-3 Republican

[Tintrlvr]

That 5 is such a ridiculous shape. I mean, I'm glad it's getting bluer, but no proper KC district should include Lone Jack but not Independence.

The proposed MO-05 includes Independence (all but the empty northeastern corner of the city limits, anyway). The main town in Jackson County that was carved into MO-06 is Blue Springs, which seems to be just because it was the right size to achieve population balance.

[MarkD]

State Rep. Peter Meredith (HD-80; St. Louis)(I've performed with him - singing-wise - and spoken to him in the statehouse) posted the following on Facebook three days ago:

So… the new maps for the House were (amazingly) passed unanimously by the bipartisan commission. Nobody expected that. But here’s the thing: Dems have a LOT to be optimistic about going into the next election.

Under the current maps, 49 districts voted for Biden in 2020 and 50 voted for McCaskill in 2018. Dems currently hold 49 seats.

Under the new maps, 57 districts voted for Biden and 60 for McCaskill. We have every reason to believe we can grow our caucus significantly this year.

But it will take work, candidates and money. More districts than ever before are close and competitive. 14 of these districts were within 5pts last election, and 27 were within 10 pts. And even when we had a slight advantage, it’s usually harder for us to compete down ballot, where the Rs typically outspend us by 2-1 or 3-1 or worse, with a couple billionaires footing the bill, incumbents with name recognition, and institutional donors giving them much more simply because they are in power.

If you’ve thought about running, now is the time to contact us and step up. The new map is below in comments, and our website to find out how to get help running.

If you’ve thought about volunteering, now is the time to connect. Sign up to connect with our field director Alex Johnson on our website linked in the comments.

If you’ve thought about giving money before to support dems running for the MO House, NOW is the time to start. Again, go to our website.

Our Missouri House Dems started this cycle with infrastructure that we’ve never had before - full time staff, a network of volunteers across the state, and a more professional approach to messaging than we’ve ever had. We’ve got candidates already recruited in many districts, and provide every one with free websites, headshots, field plans, campaign plans, access to the voter database and so much more (our “campaign in a box”).

When I came into office, we didn’t even have a campaign committee, while the Rs raised and spent $5mil or more a year from theirs. My first cycle as chair we raised and spent over $500k and the second cycle we reached over a million. We flipped four districts blue, and were one of the only states in the country to manage to pick up a blue seat even in this very difficult last election. This year we’re looking to double that million raised, and we’ll need it if we want to flip a whole bunch more seats this cycle and this decade.

HELP US MAKE 2022 A BLUE WAVE.

Here was the link to the district map: https://redistrictmo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/basic/index.html?appid=b30ec69d8b0f46ebaf6e080ca54b8ed1&fbclid=IwAR2Hgz6RT0ddqCzFC96GwTvxzr9CL2T9noo7HgEOPxGIaeuU3xNuQLxqg2w

Here was the link to the Dems' website: https://www.mohousedems.com/?fbclid=IwAR0qo4a6ZtZjWvgLj9ms-EeKdNTt_GCks3ty3xr8gfTZCfz17t01o6Rx2B8

Districts that will be made up of 1 or more whole counties, and no partial counties:
1 - Atchison, Gentry, Holt, Nodaway
2 - Caldwell, Daviess, Grundy, Harrison, Worth
5 - Marion, Ralls
120 - Crawford, Dent
145 - Perry, Ste. Genevieve
148 - Scott
157 - Lawrence

Counties that will be made up of 2 or more whole districts, and no partial districts:
Cole - 2 districts (59-60)
Boone - 5 districts (44-47, 50)
Jefferson - 6 districts (97, 111-115)
Greene - 8 districts (130-137)
St. Louis City - 8 districts (76-82, 84)
St. Charles - 11 districts (63-65, 69, 102-108)
Jackson - 19 districts (19-37)
St. Louis - 27 districts (66-68, 70-75, 83, 85-96, 98-101, 110)
(Combined population of those 8 counties = 3,214,712 -- which is 52.23% of the state's population. Those 8 counites will have 86 seats in the House, which is 52.76% of the 163 seats in the House.)
Three districts in this map have the appearance of being severely gerrymandered districts: #76 (spread out across more than 3/4s of St. Louis's riverfront), #78 (spreading from as far north as Herbert St. in St. Louis to as far south as Gasconade St.), and #88 (Southwest St. Louis County).
(The system for numbering districts on this map is just as bad as it had been ten years ago! Districts 39 and 40 are over 150 miles apart from each other; districts 62 and 63 are roughly 200 miles apart. Districts 61 and 63 are much closer to each other than either of them are to district 62. Districts 48 and 49 are separated from each other by all of Boone County; district 49 is surrounded by 43, 44, 60, and 61. Districts 68 and 70 are in St. Louis County, but 69 is a few miles away, across the MO river, in St. Charles County, and doesn't share a boundary with either of them. District 99 has been plucked out of West St. Louis County (where it was for the last ten years) and plunked down in Mid St. Louis County; 99 is surrounded by districts 71, 72, 83, 86, 89-91. District 75 is several miles away from either 74 or 76, and 74 sits in between 85 and 86 (comparing the old map to the new one, they seem to have decided to switch district numbers 74 and 85 with one another; it would have been far more logical to switch the numbers 74 and 85 on this map). As I noted above, in St. Charles County, the districts are numbered 63-65, 69, and 102-108, but 102 and 103 do not share a mutual boundary, neither do 103 and 104, and neither do 106 and 107 (which are several miles apart). The two districts that lay wholly within Franklin County, with a long mutual boundary, are 109 and 119. Such silly choices where to put district numbers!)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

State Rep. Peter Meredith (HD-80; St. Louis)(I've performed with him - singing-wise - and spoken to him in the statehouse) posted the following on Facebook three days ago:

So… the new maps for the House were (amazingly) passed unanimously by the bipartisan commission. Nobody expected that. But here’s the thing: Dems have a LOT to be optimistic about going into the next election.

Under the current maps, 49 districts voted for Biden in 2020 and 50 voted for McCaskill in 2018. Dems currently hold 49 seats.

Under the new maps, 57 districts voted for Biden and 60 for McCaskill. We have every reason to believe we can grow our caucus significantly this year.

But it will take work, candidates and money. More districts than ever before are close and competitive. 14 of these districts were within 5pts last election, and 27 were within 10 pts. And even when we had a slight advantage, it’s usually harder for us to compete down ballot, where the Rs typically outspend us by 2-1 or 3-1 or worse, with a couple billionaires footing the bill, incumbents with name recognition, and institutional donors giving them much more simply because they are in power.

If you’ve thought about running, now is the time to contact us and step up. The new map is below in comments, and our website to find out how to get help running.

If you’ve thought about volunteering, now is the time to connect. Sign up to connect with our field director Alex Johnson on our website linked in the comments.

If you’ve thought about giving money before to support dems running for the MO House, NOW is the time to start. Again, go to our website.

Our Missouri House Dems started this cycle with infrastructure that we’ve never had before - full time staff, a network of volunteers across the state, and a more professional approach to messaging than we’ve ever had. We’ve got candidates already recruited in many districts, and provide every one with free websites, headshots, field plans, campaign plans, access to the voter database and so much more (our “campaign in a box”).

When I came into office, we didn’t even have a campaign committee, while the Rs raised and spent $5mil or more a year from theirs. My first cycle as chair we raised and spent over $500k and the second cycle we reached over a million. We flipped four districts blue, and were one of the only states in the country to manage to pick up a blue seat even in this very difficult last election. This year we’re looking to double that million raised, and we’ll need it if we want to flip a whole bunch more seats this cycle and this decade.

HELP US MAKE 2022 A BLUE WAVE.

Here was the link to the district map: https://redistrictmo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/basic/index.html?appid=b30ec69d8b0f46ebaf6e080ca54b8ed1&fbclid=IwAR2Hgz6RT0ddqCzFC96GwTvxzr9CL2T9noo7HgEOPxGIaeuU3xNuQLxqg2w

Here was the link to the Dems' website: https://www.mohousedems.com/?fbclid=IwAR0qo4a6ZtZjWvgLj9ms-EeKdNTt_GCks3ty3xr8gfTZCfz17t01o6Rx2B8

Districts that will be made up of 1 or more whole counties, and no partial counties:
1 - Atchison, Gentry, Holt, Nodaway
2 - Caldwell, Daviess, Grundy, Harrison, Worth
5 - Marion, Ralls
145 - Perry, Ste. Genevieve
148 - Scott
157 - Lawrence

Counties that will be made up of 2 or more whole districts, and no partial districts:
Cole - 2 districts (59-60)
Boone - 5 districts (44-47, 50)
Jefferson - 6 districts (97, 111-115)
Greene - 8 districts (130-137)
St. Louis City - 8 districts (76-82, 84)
St. Charles - 11 districts (63-65, 69, 102-108)
Jackson - 19 districts (19-37)
St. Louis - 27 districts (66-68, 70-75, 83, 85-96, 98-101, 110)
(Combined population of those 8 counties = 3,214,712 -- which is 52.23% of the state's population. Those 8 counites will have 86 seats in the House, which is 52.76% of the 163 seats in the House.)
Three districts in this map have the appearance of being severely gerrymandered districts: #76 (spread out across more than 3/4s of St. Louis's riverfront), #78 (spreading from as far north as Herbert St. in St. Louis to as far south as Gasconade St.), and #88 (Southwest St. Louis County).

Well, this is great news!

[lfromnj]

State Rep. Peter Meredith (HD-80; St. Louis)(I've performed with him - singing-wise - and spoken to him in the statehouse) posted the following on Facebook three days ago:

So… the new maps for the House were (amazingly) passed unanimously by the bipartisan commission. Nobody expected that. But here’s the thing: Dems have a LOT to be optimistic about going into the next election.

Under the current maps, 49 districts voted for Biden in 2020 and 50 voted for McCaskill in 2018. Dems currently hold 49 seats.

Under the new maps, 57 districts voted for Biden and 60 for McCaskill. We have every reason to believe we can grow our caucus significantly this year.

But it will take work, candidates and money. More districts than ever before are close and competitive. 14 of these districts were within 5pts last election, and 27 were within 10 pts. And even when we had a slight advantage, it’s usually harder for us to compete down ballot, where the Rs typically outspend us by 2-1 or 3-1 or worse, with a couple billionaires footing the bill, incumbents with name recognition, and institutional donors giving them much more simply because they are in power.

If you’ve thought about running, now is the time to contact us and step up. The new map is below in comments, and our website to find out how to get help running.

If you’ve thought about volunteering, now is the time to connect. Sign up to connect with our field director Alex Johnson on our website linked in the comments.

If you’ve thought about giving money before to support dems running for the MO House, NOW is the time to start. Again, go to our website.

Our Missouri House Dems started this cycle with infrastructure that we’ve never had before - full time staff, a network of volunteers across the state, and a more professional approach to messaging than we’ve ever had. We’ve got candidates already recruited in many districts, and provide every one with free websites, headshots, field plans, campaign plans, access to the voter database and so much more (our “campaign in a box”).

When I came into office, we didn’t even have a campaign committee, while the Rs raised and spent $5mil or more a year from theirs. My first cycle as chair we raised and spent over $500k and the second cycle we reached over a million. We flipped four districts blue, and were one of the only states in the country to manage to pick up a blue seat even in this very difficult last election. This year we’re looking to double that million raised, and we’ll need it if we want to flip a whole bunch more seats this cycle and this decade.

HELP US MAKE 2022 A BLUE WAVE.

Here was the link to the district map: https://redistrictmo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/basic/index.html?appid=b30ec69d8b0f46ebaf6e080ca54b8ed1&fbclid=IwAR2Hgz6RT0ddqCzFC96GwTvxzr9CL2T9noo7HgEOPxGIaeuU3xNuQLxqg2w

Here was the link to the Dems' website: https://www.mohousedems.com/?fbclid=IwAR0qo4a6ZtZjWvgLj9ms-EeKdNTt_GCks3ty3xr8gfTZCfz17t01o6Rx2B8

Districts that will be made up of 1 or more whole counties, and no partial counties:
1 - Atchison, Gentry, Holt, Nodaway
2 - Caldwell, Daviess, Grundy, Harrison, Worth
5 - Marion, Ralls
145 - Perry, Ste. Genevieve
148 - Scott
157 - Lawrence

Counties that will be made up of 2 or more whole districts, and no partial districts:
Cole - 2 districts (59-60)
Boone - 5 districts (44-47, 50)
Jefferson - 6 districts (97, 111-115)
Greene - 8 districts (130-137)
St. Louis City - 8 districts (76-82, 84)
St. Charles - 11 districts (63-65, 69, 102-108)
Jackson - 19 districts (19-37)
St. Louis - 27 districts (66-68, 70-75, 83, 85-96, 98-101, 110)
(Combined population of those 8 counties = 3,214,712 -- which is 52.23% of the state's population. Those 8 counites will have 86 seats in the House, which is 52.76% of the 163 seats in the House.)
Three districts in this map have the appearance of being severely gerrymandered districts: #76 (spread out across more than 3/4s of St. Louis's riverfront), #78 (spreading from as far north as Herbert St. in St. Louis to as far south as Gasconade St.), and #88 (Southwest St. Louis County).

Well, this is great news!

Missouri also avoided the  Nicole Galloway gerrymander after trickery by all sides.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Missouri also avoided the  Nicole Galloway gerrymander after trickery by all sides.

You mean, a efficiency gap-driven map?

[lfromnj]

Missouri also avoided the  Nicole Galloway gerrymander after trickery by all sides.

You mean, a efficiency gap-driven map?

Along with the tendrils that were required with a composite score. The fact the auditor was chosen for this job instead of the SOS clearly shows the original agenda was just a Democratic made agenda to get better maps.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1485756192924307459?s=20

The House map might have passed successfully, but the senate map did not.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1485756192924307459?s=20
The House map might have passed successfully, but the senate map did not.

What would a court-drawn Senate map look like? Is this a possibility for the congressional map?

[BoiseBoy]

Missouri Senate Redistricting Committee advanced the map (SB663) 9-5. SB663 is identical to the map passed by the house. It has an emergency clause that passed, allowing it to go into effect quicker. It will now go to the full senate for debate and a vote on Wednesday.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/K_Schallhorn/status/1486512411217649668
It appears the that Senate Leadership is going to try to extend an olive branch to the Conservative Caucus (some of whom were providing an exit ramp to this by saying "we need at least a more solid 6-2")

Amazing that a small number of people can effectively bully and stall a good map from passing. Assholes.