2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/K_Schallhorn/status/1486512411217649668

It appears the that Senate Leadership is going to try to extend an olive branch to the Conservative Caucus (some of whom were providing an exit ramp to this by saying "we need at least a more solid 6-2")

Not sure what could be changed with CD01. It's pretty optimized as a pack(tbf its a fairly natural pack although some cherry picking was done)

[S019]

Well given Wagner was the one pushing for a more competitive MO-02, one wonders if her allies can derail this effort.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Even if MO-2 becomes safer, the fact KS-05 was kept in tact is really what matters for Dems. Sure, MO-02 could be nice to win down the road but that’s def not a given and would prolly not be part of their core path to a majority

[TML]

Even if MO-2 becomes safer, the fact KS-05 was kept in tact is really what matters for Dems. Sure, MO-02 could be nice to win down the road but that’s def not a given and would prolly not be part of their core path to a majority

I wonder if Cleaver’s race was a factor in him retaining a politically favorable district - does anyone here think this district would be on shakier grounds if its representative were a White person instead of a person of color?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Even if MO-2 becomes safer, the fact KS-05 was kept in tact is really what matters for Dems. Sure, MO-02 could be nice to win down the road but that’s def not a given and would prolly not be part of their core path to a majority

I wonder if Cleaver’s race was a factor in him retaining a politically favorable district - does anyone here think this district would be on shakier grounds if its representative were a White person instead of a person of color?

I think it both has to do in part with his race and the fact he’s relatively inoffensive and well liked. If someone more offensive held MO-05, white or black, and they underperformed Biden, I think the GOP might’ve felt more pressure to go ahead with a crack.

[Roll Roons]

Even if MO-2 becomes safer, the fact KS-05 was kept in tact is really what matters for Dems. Sure, MO-02 could be nice to win down the road but that’s def not a given and would prolly not be part of their core path to a majority

I wonder if Cleaver’s race was a factor in him retaining a politically favorable district - does anyone here think this district would be on shakier grounds if its representative were a White person instead of a person of color?

I think it both has to do in part with his race and the fact he’s relatively inoffensive and well liked. If someone more offensive held MO-05, white or black, and they underperformed Biden, I think the GOP might’ve felt more pressure to go ahead with a crack.

Wow, I did NOT realize Cleaver ran so far ahead of Biden in the rural parts of the district. He's also been in office for a while so he's had the chance to build up relationships with Republicans in the state. I agree that Cori Bush would not be getting the same treatment if she was in this district rather than the VRA-protected MO-01.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like Dems played themselves by not voting for the original map. Congratulations guys.

[lfromnj]

I dont know who are dumber, the Republicans thinking a Trump +35 seat is at risk or Democrats refusing to support the mildest gerrymander ever because muh fairness means 3 biden seats is required.

[jamestroll]

Just saying.. I do not think Suburban Missouri are exactly the type of suburbs that will keep trending Democratic without Trump in office..

[Skill and Chance]

I dont know who are dumber, the Republicans thinking a Trump +35 seat is at risk or Democrats refusing to support the mildest gerrymander ever because muh fairness means 3 biden seats is required.

New levels of dumb being reached on both sides here.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I dont know who are dumber, the Republicans thinking a Trump +35 seat is at risk or Democrats refusing to support the mildest gerrymander ever because muh fairness means 3 biden seats is required.

A nonpartisan map based on 2020 census and election data likely has 2 Biden seats by the way, then a Trump + 1 seat as the 3rd most Democratic.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I dont know who are dumber, the Republicans thinking a Trump +35 seat is at risk or Democrats refusing to support the mildest gerrymander ever because muh fairness means 3 biden seats is required.

New levels of dumb being reached on both sides here.

Amateur Hour.  Except this time it's professional politicians acting like amateurs.

[BoiseBoy]

We were expecting a new draft map tonight, but gubernatorial appointments took too long - next Monday is now the target.

Why does it take a week to get a draft map? They could release it tomorrow.

[BoiseBoy]

Sen. Mike Bernskoetter has confirmed that the Senate draft will differ from the House plan, and that the third district will be changed in a way that alters the second, but has provided no further elaboration.

Based on the language used, and how he has characterized the Conservative Caucus's demands, I think this will just be an intact St. Charles inside of MO-2 fix. Even though it would be really smart for the GOP to add an additional county (because it means MO-3 can take Kirkwood), its unclear if that will happen.

So still not a 7-1 plan?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sen. Mike Bernskoetter has confirmed that the Senate draft will differ from the House plan, and that the third district will be changed in a way that alters the second, but has provided no further elaboration.

Based on the language used, and how he has characterized the Conservative Caucus's demands, I think this will just be an intact St. Charles inside of MO-2 fix. Even though it would be really smart for the GOP to add an additional county (because it means MO-3 can take Kirkwood), its unclear if that will happen.

So still not a 7-1 plan?

7-1 seems to be dead unless the GOP wants a last minute plot twist

[Tekken_Guy]

Sen. Mike Bernskoetter has confirmed that the Senate draft will differ from the House plan, and that the third district will be changed in a way that alters the second, but has provided no further elaboration.

Based on the language used, and how he has characterized the Conservative Caucus's demands, I think this will just be an intact St. Charles inside of MO-2 fix. Even though it would be really smart for the GOP to add an additional county (because it means MO-3 can take Kirkwood), its unclear if that will happen.

Why Kirkwood?

[lfromnj]

Sen. Mike Bernskoetter has confirmed that the Senate draft will differ from the House plan, and that the third district will be changed in a way that alters the second, but has provided no further elaboration.

Based on the language used, and how he has characterized the Conservative Caucus's demands, I think this will just be an intact St. Charles inside of MO-2 fix. Even though it would be really smart for the GOP to add an additional county (because it means MO-3 can take Kirkwood), its unclear if that will happen.

Why Kirkwood?

It's basically the only heavily dem suburb that can't fit into Missouri 1 as its a bit further away and on the southside .

[Torie]

I wonder how much of the fuss is due to trying to effect district coherence for MO-02, to avoid having more upscale suburban Pubs with low brow exurban or rural MAGA types that would drive the former to the exits and discommode Ann Wagner?  You certainly don't want the latter to be controlling Pub primaries.

[lfromnj]

I wonder how much of the fuss is due to trying to effect district coherence for MO-02, to avoid having more upscale suburban Pubs with low brow exurban or rural MAGA types that would drive the former to the exits and discommode Ann Wagner?  You certainly don't want the latter to be controlling Pub primaries.

As far as I can tell its actually the suburban legislators who are more conservative than the rural ones.

[Tekken_Guy]

I wonder how much of the fuss is due to trying to effect district coherence for MO-02, to avoid having more upscale suburban Pubs with low brow exurban or rural MAGA types that would drive the former to the exits and discommode Ann Wagner?  You certainly don't want the latter to be controlling Pub primaries.

While that might explain why they don't move into Warren or Lincoln County (not that either of those counties would make up more than 10% of a primary anyways), it doesn't really explain why they wouldn't unify St. Charles (and cede South County to MO-3). South County is less affluent than the remainder of St. Charles County, and in terms of college attainment both areas are about the same. The only reason you'd split St. Charles is to keep St. Louis County as the dominant share of votes in the primary - which is I think is what's going on here.

During a radio interview on 97.1 FM Talk, Dan Shaul slipped up a bit and implicitly admitted that there was pressure from some stakeholder to keep St. Louis County "as the center" of MO-2. Whether that's from Wagner, or some St. Louis County area person eying a run when she leaves is unclear, though he didn't make the comment out like it was some uncrossable red line. If the Senate amends the map to unify St. Charles, I cannot imagine the House would try to undo it. They want to move onto other legislative items.

I’d assume there are a lot of St. Louis County republicans eyeing MO-2 when Wagner leaves, like Andrew Koenig, Jean Evans, and Shamed Dogan. But there are also a lot of St. Charles legislators, like Bob Onder, Bill Eigel, and Nick Schroer, who’d want that seat as well.

[vileplume]

Sen. Mike Bernskoetter has confirmed that the Senate draft will differ from the House plan, and that the third district will be changed in a way that alters the second, but has provided no further elaboration.

Based on the language used, and how he has characterized the Conservative Caucus's demands, I think this will just be an intact St. Charles inside of MO-2 fix. Even though it would be really smart for the GOP to add an additional county (because it means MO-3 can take Kirkwood), its unclear if that will happen.

Why Kirkwood?

It's basically the only heavily dem suburb that can't fit into Missouri 1 as its a bit further away and on the southside .

Correct, and it's also very White, so you probably don't want to put too much of it in MO-1, otherwise the district will no longer be plurality Black Voting Age Population.

Anyways, swapping the remainder of St. Charles for Southern STL County leaves the 3rd district just a little shy of Kirkwood. Adding another county into MO-2 would allow the 3rd to expand to take Kirkwood, which makes MO-2 from a lean R district to a pretty strong Trump double digit seat.

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1489241774627467266

If I was the Missouri GOP I would give MO-02 both Warren and Lincoln and strip it of any strongly Democratic City in St Louis County (except for Creve Coeur which I've left for neatness purposes). Then shove the strongly Dem cities south of St Louis that don't fit into MO-01 into MO-03 (Webster Groves, Shrewsbury, Kirkwood etc.)  and drown them out with blood-red rural areas stretching along the Southern Bank of the Missouri River out to Morgan County.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e598195f-f1ac-4c2e-80ce-4abff963e386

-All incumbents live in their current districts
-MO-02 is dragged up to Trump+15.4%
-The other 5 R districts are kept above 60% Trump, so as not to upset the incumbents
-No counties are split other than the 2 necessary ones (St Louis and Clay)
-No city in St Louis County is split

[Tekken_Guy]

Sen. Mike Bernskoetter has confirmed that the Senate draft will differ from the House plan, and that the third district will be changed in a way that alters the second, but has provided no further elaboration.

Based on the language used, and how he has characterized the Conservative Caucus's demands, I think this will just be an intact St. Charles inside of MO-2 fix. Even though it would be really smart for the GOP to add an additional county (because it means MO-3 can take Kirkwood), its unclear if that will happen.

Why Kirkwood?

It's basically the only heavily dem suburb that can't fit into Missouri 1 as its a bit further away and on the southside .

Correct, and it's also very White, so you probably don't want to put too much of it in MO-1, otherwise the district will no longer be plurality Black Voting Age Population.

Anyways, swapping the remainder of St. Charles for Southern STL County leaves the 3rd district just a little shy of Kirkwood. Adding another county into MO-2 would allow the 3rd to expand to take Kirkwood, which makes MO-2 from a lean R district to a pretty strong Trump double digit seat.

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1489241774627467266

If I was the Missouri GOP I would give MO-02 both Warren and Lincoln and strip it of any strongly Democratic City in St Louis County (except for Creve Coeur which I've left for neatness purposes). Then shove the strongly Dem cities south of St Louis that don't fit into MO-01 into MO-03 (Webster Groves, Shrewsbury, Kirkwood etc.)  and drown them out with blood-red rural areas stretching along the Southern Bank of the Missouri River out to Morgan County.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e598195f-f1ac-4c2e-80ce-4abff963e386

-All incumbents live in their current districts
-MO-02 is dragged up to Trump+15.4%
-The other 5 R districts are kept above 60% Trump, so as not to upset the incumbents
-No counties are split other than the 2 necessary ones (St Louis and Clay)
-No city in St Louis County is split

The only reason that map is unlikely is because Ann Wagner doesn’t want it. Otherwise MO-2 would have been heavily shored up in the first draft.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sen. Mike Bernskoetter has confirmed that the Senate draft will differ from the House plan, and that the third district will be changed in a way that alters the second, but has provided no further elaboration.

Based on the language used, and how he has characterized the Conservative Caucus's demands, I think this will just be an intact St. Charles inside of MO-2 fix. Even though it would be really smart for the GOP to add an additional county (because it means MO-3 can take Kirkwood), its unclear if that will happen.

Why Kirkwood?

It's basically the only heavily dem suburb that can't fit into Missouri 1 as its a bit further away and on the southside .

Correct, and it's also very White, so you probably don't want to put too much of it in MO-1, otherwise the district will no longer be plurality Black Voting Age Population.

Anyways, swapping the remainder of St. Charles for Southern STL County leaves the 3rd district just a little shy of Kirkwood. Adding another county into MO-2 would allow the 3rd to expand to take Kirkwood, which makes MO-2 from a lean R district to a pretty strong Trump double digit seat.

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1489241774627467266

If I was the Missouri GOP I would give MO-02 both Warren and Lincoln and strip it of any strongly Democratic City in St Louis County (except for Creve Coeur which I've left for neatness purposes). Then shove the strongly Dem cities south of St Louis that don't fit into MO-01 into MO-03 (Webster Groves, Shrewsbury, Kirkwood etc.)  and drown them out with blood-red rural areas stretching along the Southern Bank of the Missouri River out to Morgan County.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e598195f-f1ac-4c2e-80ce-4abff963e386

-All incumbents live in their current districts
-MO-02 is dragged up to Trump+15.4%
-The other 5 R districts are kept above 60% Trump, so as not to upset the incumbents
-No counties are split other than the 2 necessary ones (St Louis and Clay)
-No city in St Louis County is split

The only reason that map is unlikely is because Ann Wagner doesn’t want it. Otherwise MO-2 would have been heavily shored up in the first draft.

I really don't get why Wagner is so scared of rurals, especially since they could bring her seat to a place where she doesn't even need to worry about campaigning in the General election. She's a relatively quiet but inoffensive member of the GOP so shouldn't lose her primary, especially as long as the burbs stay a significant chunk of her district but idk why she's so insistant on not going past St. Charles County, especially when it could make her seat a bajillioin times safer.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Even though I support a 7-1 map (particularly in light of what's happened in other states), the idea of a pro-gerrymandering rally is hilarious!

[bagelman]

I don't understand why state house dems are so stupid that they didn't just try and get on board for a 6-2.

If I lived in KCMO I would be seething right now.