2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[BoiseBoy]

It seems that HB 2117 is going to be brought to the floor without changes. The expectation is there will be amendments proposed, but its at least possible now that the map passed by the House could make it through the Senate.

When is the vote?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not sure if this is just signaling or an honest statement of belief about what type of map they will push for, but nonetheless:
https://twitter.com/MoSenDems/status/1490736991276703745

Shhh stay quiet while your opponents are in the middle of making a mistake.

[Roll Roons]

I knew 7-1 was never really in the cards. The only real question is what they do with MO-02, but that district is surely not flipping in 2022.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/BobOnderMO/status/1490898473452855300

Good riddance. How many times are these asshole jerks going to keep putting this crap 7-1 idea up?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1490919136838717441

Interesting that the suburban Republicans seemed to be more in favor of 7-1 than the rural Republicans.  I think this might be another example of how suburban Republicans are, in some respects, actually more ideologically conservative than rural Republicans, especially in a "movement conservative" sense.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1490919136838717441

Interesting that the suburban Republicans seemed to be more in favor of 7-1 than the rural Republicans.  I think this might be another example of how suburban Republicans are, in some respects, actually more ideologically conservative than rural Republicans, especially in a "movement conservative" sense.

The ones closest to KC obviously would be favorable to 7-1 since it gives them/their regional allies a seat to run in that they didn’t before. St. Louis suburbs as well to a certain extent since I assume this plan also shored up MO-02.

Rural GOPers on the other hand generally would feel much more pressure (whether from constitutents or US Hose Reps/candidates to keep their district “pure rural” rather than dilute it with more suburban areas (or especially, in the west, with a piece of a cracked KC.) Reps in areas that are already more suburban in nature don’t have that same complaint in general.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/K_Schallhorn/status/1491046227579785218?s=20&t=YfSCbMCPR...

Even though this shores up MO-02, is still cuts St. Charles Lol.

[jamestroll]

Dirty little secret: Wagner's district is like literally ZERO danger without Trump in office.

St. Louis metro is one of the most segregated metros in the country,

[lfromnj]

Seems to be Trump +15 but also perhaps a false flag to call out the St.Charles caucus.

[lfromnj]

Seems to be Trump +15 but also perhaps a false flag to call out the St.Charles caucus.

There's no way that district is Trump +15. Given the changes made to MO-1 its probably only a point or two better

Even just a 2 county  Missouri 2nd with all of St. Louis and  JeffCo is Trump +7. This is definetely atleast a few points better although not Trump +15.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/BillEigel/status/1491063737864044545?cxt=HHwWgoDSjbqkqbEpAAA...
lol

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not sure if this is just signaling or an honest statement of belief about what type of map they will push for, but nonetheless:
https://twitter.com/MoSenDems/status/1490736991276703745

Morons.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not sure if this is just signaling or an honest statement of belief about what type of map they will push for, but nonetheless:
https://twitter.com/MoSenDems/status/1490736991276703745

Morons.

Who needs Shakespeare when you have the feuding and moronic behaviors and maneuvering and plotting that happens underneath the MO State Capitol dome?

[Tekken_Guy]

The house seems pretty set on having Jefferson County in 3, though.

https://twitter.com/missouri_mapper/status/1489242013480402946?s=21

[Tekken_Guy]

The house seems pretty set on having Jefferson County in 3, though.

https://twitter.com/missouri_mapper/status/1489242013480402946?s=21

Yeah, this is going to be a big issue during conference committee. This process isn't done by a longshot.

That and the St. Charles split. Also, a St. Louis 3 way split. 

If I were Republicans I’d draw MO-2 like this.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/34e9703f-f07b-4352-b779-53e163934516

It’s Trump+11.5, has all of St. Charles, keeps Jefferson in 3, has no rurals, and has no 3-way split of St. Louis County. It would probably please everyone.

[Oryxslayer]

The house seems pretty set on having Jefferson County in 3, though.

https://twitter.com/missouri_mapper/status/1489242013480402946?s=21

Yeah, this is going to be a big issue during conference committee. This process isn't done by a longshot.

That and the St. Charles split. Also, a St. Louis 3 way split. 

If I were Republicans I’d draw MO-2 like this.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/34e9703f-f07b-4352-b779-53e163934516

It’s Trump+11.5, has all of St. Charles, keeps Jefferson in 3, has no rurals, and has no 3-way split of St. Louis County. It would probably please everyone.

Except you have encircled 172K more people than necessary in MO-01 and left little room for another seat to snake in and grab it. Now this is still the obvious solution, we have all seen it, it just involves MO-03 taking in south St. Louis County via Jefferson.

[Tekken_Guy]

The house seems pretty set on having Jefferson County in 3, though.

https://twitter.com/missouri_mapper/status/1489242013480402946?s=21

Yeah, this is going to be a big issue during conference committee. This process isn't done by a longshot.

That and the St. Charles split. Also, a St. Louis 3 way split.  

If I were Republicans I’d draw MO-2 like this.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/34e9703f-f07b-4352-b779-53e163934516

It’s Trump+11.5, has all of St. Charles, keeps Jefferson in 3, has no rurals, and has no 3-way split of St. Louis County. It would probably please everyone.

Except you have encircled 172K more people than necessary in MO-01 and left little room for another seat to snake in and grab it. Now this is still the obvious solution, we have all seen it, it just involves MO-03 taking in south St. Louis County via Jefferson.

My apologies, there is meant to be a three-way split. I added MO-01 and MO-03 to show how the new seat works.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Currently not a ton of interest in the Rowden compromise map - some Conservative Caucus members are predicting the filibuster will last at least a week, so I suspect there might be some sort of backroom dealing going on right now to try to come up with a different compromise map.

Dems would be utter morons not to reach out to the GOP with an offer for 2 Safe D seats and one reasonably compact Likely R one. It would be a perfectly fait setup for a state like MO, and it's guaranteed to be better than anything a unified GOP caucus would come up with.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Currently not a ton of interest in the Rowden compromise map - some Conservative Caucus members are predicting the filibuster will last at least a week, so I suspect there might be some sort of backroom dealing going on right now to try to come up with a different compromise map.

Dems would be utter morons not to reach out to the GOP with an offer for 2 Safe D seats and one reasonably compact Likely R one. It would be a perfectly fait setup for a state like MO, and it's guaranteed to be better than anything a unified GOP caucus would come up with.

Well the current HB2117 is about as good a map for them as once can expect with unified GOP control. They could have avoided the current predicament by just supporting that, but they didn't (I don't really know what their play was - were they trying to get the courts to draw it, did they expect to get a minor concession out of MO-2 and then vote for it?). Now it looks like MO-2 could get shored up.

Yeah, they should just support that honestly. Really stupid that they didn't.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/K_Schallhorn/status/1491183598330081280

[Oryxslayer]

And so we see that the Dem's are fine voting for these 6-2/5-2-1 maps, they just won't say so publicly and will let the GOP waste ink and time.

[BoiseBoy]

Currently not a ton of interest in the Rowden compromise map - some Conservative Caucus members are predicting the filibuster will last at least a week, so I suspect there might be some sort of backroom dealing going on right now to try to come up with a different compromise map.

Spoke too soon - amendment was just in a standing vote: 22-5. Onder, Hoskins, Weiland, Brattin, and Eigel vote no.

https://twitter.com/K_Schallhorn/status/1491183598330081280

So that amendment is done because it was an amendment to Roberts' amendment which he later withdrew?

[lfromnj]

And so we see that the Dem's are fine voting for these 6-2/5-2-1 maps, they just won't say so publicly and will let the GOP waste ink and time.

So why not just support the original 5-2-1 map?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EmilyManleyTV/status/1491184704996978691?s=20&t=b0BZ_8Uo...

Appears to be some procedural confusion.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And so we see that the Dem's are fine voting for these 6-2/5-2-1 maps, they just won't say so publicly and will let the GOP waste ink and time.

So why not just support the original 5-2-1 map?

Yeah. This map is more of a 6-2 and less of a 5-2-1 than the previous.