COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Calthrina950]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1249865253803954176
Peak Florida.

Ron DeSantis is a buffoon. I take back everything good that I said about him.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How are today's numbers looking?

The number of new U.S. cases is dropping like a rock.

[T'Chenka]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1249865253803954176
Peak Florida.

Ron DeSantis is a buffoon. I take back everything good that I said about him.

Good for you (not sarcasm).

I love seeing blue avatars that aren't mindless GOP cultists.

[Storr]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/13 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>

3/29: <Sunday>

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | Δ Change: ↓4.48% | Σ Increase: ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | Δ Change: ↓47.30% | Σ Increase: ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | Δ Change: ↑13.66% | Σ Increase: ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | Δ Change: ↑143.22% | Σ Increase: ↑26.73%)

3/31:

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | Δ Change: ↑14.62% | Σ Increase: ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | Δ Change: ↑12.80% | Σ Increase: ↑22.84%)

4/1:

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | Δ Change: ↑10.89% | Σ Increase: ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | Δ Change: ↑66.89% | Σ Increase: ↑31.94%)

4/2:

• Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | Δ Change: ↑8.65% | Σ Increase: ↑13.69%)
• Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | Δ Change: ↓21.62% | Σ Increase: ↑18.97%)

4/3:

• Cases: 276,965 (+32,532 | Δ Change: ↑10.54% | Σ Increase: ↑13.31%)
• Deaths: 7,391 (+1,321 | Δ Change: ↑36.47% | Σ Increase: ↑21.76%)

4/4:

• Cases: 311,357 (+34,392 | Δ Change: ↑5.72% | Σ Increase: ↑12.42%)
• Deaths: 8,452 (+1,061 | Δ Change: ↓19.68% | Σ Increase: ↑14.36%)

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9:

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10:

• Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
• Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)

4/11:

• Cases: 532,879 (+30,561 | Δ Change: ↓9.45% | Σ Increase: ↑6.08%)
• Deaths: 20,577 (+1,852 | Δ Change: ↓8.95% | Σ Increase: ↑9.89%)

4/12 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13 (Today):

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

Just one more death than yesterday? That's an interesting fact.

[Calthrina950]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1249865253803954176
Peak Florida.

Ron DeSantis is a buffoon. I take back everything good that I said about him.

Good for you (not sarcasm).

I love seeing blue avatars that aren't mindless GOP cultists.

As I've said many times before, I am a registered independent (or unaffiliated voter, as we're known in Colorado), not a Republican. I adopted this avatar before my hiatus for reasons I won't hash out here.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1249865253803954176
Peak Florida.

Ron DeSantis is a buffoon. I take back everything good that I said about him.

Good for you (not sarcasm).

I love seeing blue avatars that aren't mindless GOP cultists.

As I've said many times before, I am a registered independent (or unaffiliated voter, as we're known in Colorado), not a Republican. I adopted this avatar before my hiatus for reasons I won't hash out here.

How will you be voting in the general (not that Colorado is any particular danger for Biden?)

[jimrtex]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1249865253803954176
Peak Florida.

Apparently at the request of Jerry Demings, mayor of Orange County, and husband of Rep. Val Demings.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s looking better, but let’s wait two more days just to establish this isn’t a result of an Easter anomaly (I don’t think it is but it could be)

[Calthrina950]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1249865253803954176
Peak Florida.

Ron DeSantis is a buffoon. I take back everything good that I said about him.

Good for you (not sarcasm).

I love seeing blue avatars that aren't mindless GOP cultists.

As I've said many times before, I am a registered independent (or unaffiliated voter, as we're known in Colorado), not a Republican. I adopted this avatar before my hiatus for reasons I won't hash out here.

How will you be voting in the general (not that Colorado is any particular danger for Biden?)

I'm honestly leaning towards Biden at this point, though I may still go third-party. I long ago resolved never to vote for Trump under any circumstances, and I didn't vote for him last time.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1249712413219397632

Northeast Democratic Governors say "nah"

https://twitter.com/GovMurphy/status/1249765507131232257?s=20

West Coast Governors also say "nah"

https://twitter.com/CAgovernor/status/1249780469421338624?s=20

Holy based

I need a Pritzker/Walz/Whitmer/Evers/DeWine alliance ASAP!

That would truly be awesome, but unfortunately, as outright brilliant as his leadership in this crisis has been, I just don't see the wine being willing to cross party lines to do so. He has such overwhelming popularity from having handled this crisis near perfectly, other than making the decision to postpone the primary election only at the very last minute, that he Bears enough widespread trust that he won't take much of a hit politically by declining to join. Conversely, the most vindictive SOB in the country happens to be in the Oval Office right now, and considering he has used the shipment of ventilators to highlight the candidacies of endangered Republican senators in the last week, you can bet better than even money he would take it out on dewine and thus all of Ohio.

[Badger]

VERY SMART PRESS BRIEFING TODAY BY TRUMP

OWNED.

Please tell me this is Ironic.

You are apparently not familiar with this guy's posting history.

[Ogre Mage]

Interesting article in Fortune -- "What Do Countries With The Best Coronavirus Reponses Have In Common? Women Leaders":  

Looking for examples of true leadership in a crisis? From Iceland to Taiwan and from Germany to New Zealand, women are stepping up to show the world how to manage a messy patch for our human family. Add in Finland, Iceland and Denmark, and this pandemic is revealing that women have what it takes when the heat rises in our Houses of State. Many will say these are small countries, or islands, or other exceptions. But Germany is large and leading, and the UK is an island with very different outcomes. These leaders are gifting us an attractive alternative way of wielding power. What are they teaching us?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/?fbclid=IwAR28sXmEZPWr6rSMQIFYtajL0T8MFnIbcwrgWGMSESeh-dKFSTOSd7xqG8A#42b1473d3dec

[It’s so Joever]

Interesting article in Fortune -- "What Do Countries With The Best Coronavirus Reponses Have In Common? Women Leaders":  

Looking for examples of true leadership in a crisis? From Iceland to Taiwan and from Germany to New Zealand, women are stepping up to show the world how to manage a messy patch for our human family. Add in Finland, Iceland and Denmark, and this pandemic is revealing that women have what it takes when the heat rises in our Houses of State. Many will say these are small countries, or islands, or other exceptions. But Germany is large and leading, and the UK is an island with very different outcomes. These leaders are gifting us an attractive alternative way of wielding power. What are they teaching us?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/?fbclid=IwAR28sXmEZPWr6rSMQIFYtajL0T8MFnIbcwrgWGMSESeh-dKFSTOSd7xqG8A#42b1473d3dec

South Korea? Vietnam? Singapore?
It’s not a matter of gender, it’s simply a matter of competence.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1249712413219397632

Northeast Democratic Governors say "nah"

https://twitter.com/GovMurphy/status/1249765507131232257?s=20

The whole area has high infection rates.

You can see the spread from NYC into NJ and CT, and now eastern Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts, likely through community infection.

Other areas can more easily impose quarantines on these areas. To avoid truckers and the like spreading the virus, food can airdropped

[jimrtex]

Why was Nevada left out of the West Coast compact? It's a D trifecta that's pretty typically progressive aside from Sisolak. Is it because Sisolak was sluggish in getting started with emergency responses?

Nevada doesn't want California dictating about Las Vegas. Newsom probably hates people moving to Nevada because of high taxes and living costs. There is also a nasty puritanical streak in some progressives.

[jimrtex]

I need a Pritzker/Walz/Whitmer/Evers/DeWine alliance ASAP!

Minnesota has among the lowest infection rates. Why would they want to looped in with Michigan?

[Grassroots]

I need a Pritzker/Walz/Whitmer/Evers/DeWine alliance ASAP!

Minnesota has among the lowest infection rates. Why would they want to looped in with Michigan?

They aren't peaking out until much later in the month. Letting the TrumpFeds bend them over would be disastrous for them.

[Grassroots]

Interesting article in Fortune -- "What Do Countries With The Best Coronavirus Reponses Have In Common? Women Leaders":  

Looking for examples of true leadership in a crisis? From Iceland to Taiwan and from Germany to New Zealand, women are stepping up to show the world how to manage a messy patch for our human family. Add in Finland, Iceland and Denmark, and this pandemic is revealing that women have what it takes when the heat rises in our Houses of State. Many will say these are small countries, or islands, or other exceptions. But Germany is large and leading, and the UK is an island with very different outcomes. These leaders are gifting us an attractive alternative way of wielding power. What are they teaching us?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/?fbclid=IwAR28sXmEZPWr6rSMQIFYtajL0T8MFnIbcwrgWGMSESeh-dKFSTOSd7xqG8A#42b1473d3dec

Great, using a pandemic to promote p***y power.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It doesn’t seem like there has been any continued growth of the virus in Sweden; cases and deaths are way down there in the past 3-4 days, even more dramatically than other European countries.

[Smeulders]

It doesn’t seem like there has been any continued growth of the virus in Sweden; cases and deaths are way down there in the past 3-4 days, even more dramatically than other European countries.

Thanks for posting this I guess, because it links straight into a post I was planning to make about the USA. The main point is simply, "What am I missing? Am I even missing something, or don't the numbers make sense."

There is, at the moment, 1 way to keep the number of cases down. Make sure infected people do not come into contact with non-infected people. If you're well prepared (and a bit lucky), you identify all infected and isolate them. If you're not, you implement some level of stay-at-home or lockdown and just keep everyone away from everyone else. The more severe the lockdown, the quicker new cases should go down. Deaths will lag, but again the more severe the lockdown, the quicker they should peak.

The above is, I believe, completely non-controversial. It's not what I am seeing though. Italy and Spain have been in pretty severe lockdowns for a while now yet cases and deaths needed weeks after implementation to top out. The downward slope after the peak has also been very flat. I am seeing the same thing in Belgium*. Maybe the patchwork of state measures has confused me, but I get the impression that the USA started their lockdowns later than Europe and they are less severe. Even so, the numbers of deaths are down almost 25% from their peak already. The quoted post is talking about the Swedish numbers, which are looking pretty good the last few days even though their lockdown measures are among the most lenient in Europe.

So, what am I missing? Are we seeing huge effects of social structure (larger households which allow infection even under lockdown)? Is there some impressive contact tracing going on in the USA that I am unaware off? Are lockdowns simply stricter on that side of the pond (and what about Sweden then)?

Or am I not missing anything and is this just the next example of all numbers being wrong in this pandemic? Maybe Italy has improved massively from their peak, but they just undercounted deaths massively at the peak as they were overwhelmed? Maybe the patchwork reporting in the USA makes wild swings inevitable and we'll see a more consistent slow drop over time?

Feel free to give your thoughts on this.

*From daily trackers, it may seem Belgium has had a recent spike in deaths. This is mainly due to expanded reporting. Whereas we first only counted deaths of positively identified cases, this has recently been expanded to suspected cases. If a doctor believes someone had Covid-19 at time of death, they are added to the numbers. A backlog of such cases (mainly from retirement homes) have been added to the numbers in recent days. It doesn't make the numbers look good, but it does mean we are probably among the least under-counting countries.

[FrancoAgo]

The italian lock down left open many activities,
this is the list, is in italian

    Ipermercati
    Supermercati
    Discount di alimentari
    Minimercati ed altri esercizi non specializzati di alimentari vari
    Commercio al dettaglio di prodotti surgelati
    Commercio al dettaglio in esercizi non specializzati di computer, periferiche, attrezzature per le telecomunicazioni, elettronica di consumo audio e video, elettrodomestici
    Commercio al dettaglio di prodotti alimentari, bevande e tabacco in esercizi specializzati (codici ateco: 47.2)
    Commercio al dettaglio di carburante per autotrazione in esercizi specializzati
    Commercio al dettaglio apparecchiature informatiche e per le telecomunicazioni (ICT) in esercizi specializzati (codice ateco: 47.4)
    Commercio al dettaglio di ferramenta, vernici, vetro piano e materiale elettrico e termoidraulico
    Commercio al dettaglio di articoli igienico-sanitari
    Commercio al dettaglio di articoli per l’illuminazione
    Commercio al dettaglio di giornali, riviste e periodici
    Farmacie
    Commercio al dettaglio in altri esercizi specializzati di medicinali non soggetti a prescrizione medica
    Commercio al dettaglio di articoli medicali e ortopedici in esercizi specializzati
    Commercio al dettaglio di articoli di profumeria, prodotti per toletta e per l’igiene personale
    Commercio al dettaglio di piccoli animali domestici
    Commercio al dettaglio di materiale per ottica e fotografia
    Commercio al dettaglio di combustibile per uso domestico e per riscaldamento
    Commercio al dettaglio di saponi, detersivi, prodotti per la lucidatura e affini
    Commercio al dettaglio di qualsiasi tipo di prodotto effettuato via internet
    Commercio al dettaglio di qualsiasi tipo di prodotto effettuato per televisione
    Commercio al dettaglio di qualsiasi tipo di prodotto per corrispondenza, radio, telefono
    Commercio effettuato per mezzo di distributori automatici
    Commercio di carta, cartone e articoli di cartoleria
    Commercio al dettaglio di libri
    Commercio al dettaglio di vestiti per bambini e neonati

Allegato 2

    Servizi per la persona
    Lavanderia e pulitura di articoli tessili e pelliccia
    Attività delle lavanderie industriali
    Altre lavanderie, tintorie
    Servizi di pompe funebri e attività connesse

Allegato 3

    1 Coltivazioni agricole e produzione di prodotti animali
    2 Silvicoltura ed utilizzo aree forestali
    3 Pesca e acquacoltura
    5 Estrazione di carbone
    6 Estrazione di petrolio greggio e di gas naturale
    09.1 Attività dei servizi di supporto all’estrazione di petrolio e di gas naturale
    10 Industrie alimentari
    11 Industria delle bevande
    13.96.20 Fabbricazione di altri articoli tessili tecnici ed industriali
    13.95 Fabbricazione di tessuti non tessuti e di articoli in tali materie (esclusi gli articoli di abbigliamento)
    14.12.00 Confezioni di camici, divise e altri indumenti da lavoro
    16 Industria del legno e dei prodotti in legno e sughero (esclusi i mobili); fabbricazione di articoli in paglia e materiali da intreccio
    17 Fabbricazione di carta (ad esclusione dei codici: 17.23 e 17.24)
    18 Stampa e riproduzione di supporti registrati
    19 Fabbricazione di coke e prodotti derivanti dalla raffinazione del petrolio
    20 Fabbricazione di prodotti chimici (ad esclusione dei codici: 20.12 – 20.51.01 – 20.51.02 – 20.59.50 – 20.59.60)
    21 Fabbricazione di prodotti farmaceutici di base e di preparati farmaceutici
    22.2 Fabbricazione di articoli in materie plastiche (ad esclusione dei codici: 22.29.01 e 22.29.02)
    23.13 Fabbricazione di vetro cavo
    23.19.10 Fabbricazione di vetrerie per laboratori, per uso igienico, per farmacia
    25.21 Fabbricazione di radiatori e contenitori in metallo per caldaie per il riscaldamento centrale
    25.73.1 Fabbricazione di utensileria ad azionamento manuale; parti intercambiabili per macchine utensili
    25.92 Fabbricazione di imballaggi leggeri in metallo
    26.1 Fabbricazione di componenti elettronici e schede elettroniche
    26.2 Fabbricazione di computer e unità periferiche
    26.6 Fabbricazione di apparecchi per irradiazione, apparecchiature elettromedicali ed elettroterapeutiche
    27.1 Fabbricazione di motori, generatori e trasformatori elettrici e di apparecchiature per la distribuzione e il controllo dell’elettricità
    27.2 Fabbricazione di batterie di pile e di accumulatori elettrici
    28.29.30 Fabbricazione di macchine automatiche per la dosatura, la confezione e per l’imballaggio
    28.95.00 Fabbricazione di macchine per l’industria della carta e del cartone (incluse parti e accessori)
    28.96 Fabbricazione di macchine per l’industria delle materie plastiche e della gomma (incluse parti e accessori)
    32.50 Fabbricazione di strumenti e forniture mediche e dentistiche
    32.99.1 Fabbricazione di attrezzature ed articoli di vestiario protettivi di sicurezza
    32.99.4 Fabbricazione di casse funebri
    33 Riparazione e manutenzione installazione di macchine e apparecchiature (ad esclusione dei seguenti codici: 33.11.01, 33.11.02, 33.11.03, 33.11.04, 33.11.05, 33.11.07, 33.11.09, 33.12.92,
    35 Fornitura di energia elettrica, gas, vapore e aria condizionata
    36 Raccolta, trattamento e fornitura di acqua
    37 Gestione delle reti fognarie
    38 Attività di raccolta, trattamento e smaltimento dei rifiuti; recupero dei materiali
    39 Attività di risanamento e altri servizi di gestione dei rifiuti
    42 Ingegneria civile (ad esclusione dei seguenti codici: 42.99.09 e 42.99.10)
    43.2 Installazione di impianti elettrici, idraulici e altri lavori di costruzioni e installazioni
    45.2 Manutenzione e riparazione di autoveicoli
    45.3 Commercio di parti e accessori di autoveicoli
    45.4 Per la sola attività di manutenzione e riparazione di motocicli e commercio di relative parti e accessori
    46.2 Commercio all’ingrosso di materie prime agricole e animali vivi
    46.3 Commercio all’ingrosso di prodotti alimentari, bevande e prodotti del tabacco
    46.46 Commercio all’ingrosso di prodotti farmaceutici
    46.49.1 Commercio all’ingrosso di carta, cartone e articoli di cartoleria
    46.49.2 Commercio all’ingrosso di libri riviste e giornali
    46.61 Commercio all’ingrosso di macchinari, attrezzature, macchine, accessori, forniture agricole e utensili agricoli, inclusi i trattori
    46.69.91 Commercio all’ingrosso di strumenti e attrezzature ad uso scientifico
    46.69.94 Commercio all’ingrosso di articoli antincendio e infortunistici
    46.71 Commercio all’ingrosso di prodotti petroliferi e lubrificanti per autotrazione, di combustibili per riscaldamento
    46.75.01 Commercio all’ingrosso di fertilizzanti e di altri prodotti chimici per l’agricoltura
    49 Trasporto terrestre e trasporto mediante condotte
    50 Trasporto marittimo e per vie d’acqua
    51 Trasporto aereo
    52 Magazzinaggio e attività di supporto ai trasporti
    53 Servizi postali e attività di corriere
    55.1 Alberghi e strutture simili
    j (DA 58 A 63) Servizi di informazione e comunicazione
    K (Da 64 a 66) Attività finanziarie e assicurative
    69 Attività legali e contabili
    70 Attività di direzione aziendali e di consulenza gestionale
    71 Attività degli studi di architettura e d’ingegneria; collaudi ed analisi tecniche
    72 Ricerca scientifica e sviluppo
    74 Attività professionali, scientifiche e tecniche
    75 Servizi veterinari
    78.2 Attività delle agenzie di lavoro temporaneo (interinale) nei limiti in cui siano espletate in relazione alle attività di cui agli allegati 1, 2 e 3 del presente decreto
    80.1 Servizi di vigilanza privata
    80.2 Servizi connessi ai sistemi di vigilanza
    81.2 Attività di pulizia e disinfestazione
    81.3 Cura e manutenzione del paesaggio, con esclusione delle attività di realizzazione
    82.20 Attività dei call center limitatamente alla attività “di call center in entrata (inbound), che rispondono alle chiamate degli utenti tramite operatori, tramite distribuzione automatiche delle chiamate, tramite integrazione computer-telefono, sistemi interatttivi di risposta a voce o sistemi in grado di ricevere ordini, fornire informazioni sui prodotti, trattare con i clienti per assistenza o reclami” e, comunque, nei limiti in cui siano espletate in relazione alle attività di cui agli allegati al presente decreto
    82.92 Attività di imballaggio e confezionamento conto terzi
    82.99.2 Agenzie di distribuzione di libri, giornali e riviste
    82.99.9 Altri servizi di sostegno alle imprese limitatamente all’attività relativa alle consegne a domicilio di prodotti
    84 Amministrazione pubblica e difesa; assicurazione sociale obbligatoria
    85 Istruzione
    86 Assistenza sanitaria
    87 Servizi di assistenza sociale residenziale
    88 Assistenza sociale non residenziale
    94 Attività di organizzazioni economiche, di datori di lavoro e professionali
    95.11.00 Riparazione e manutenzione di computer e periferiche
    95.12.01 Riparazione e manutenzione di telefoni fissi, cordless e cellulari
    95.12.09 Riparazione e manutenzione di altre apparecchiature per le comunicazioni
    95.22.01 Riparazione di elettrodomestici e di articoli per la casa
    97 Attività di famiglie e convivenze come datori di lavoro per personale domestico
    99 Organizzazioni e organismi extraterritoriali

[Middle-aged Europe]

Interesting article in Fortune -- "What Do Countries With The Best Coronavirus Reponses Have In Common? Women Leaders":  

Looking for examples of true leadership in a crisis? From Iceland to Taiwan and from Germany to New Zealand, women are stepping up to show the world how to manage a messy patch for our human family. Add in Finland, Iceland and Denmark, and this pandemic is revealing that women have what it takes when the heat rises in our Houses of State. Many will say these are small countries, or islands, or other exceptions. But Germany is large and leading, and the UK is an island with very different outcomes. These leaders are gifting us an attractive alternative way of wielding power. What are they teaching us?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/?fbclid=IwAR28sXmEZPWr6rSMQIFYtajL0T8MFnIbcwrgWGMSESeh-dKFSTOSd7xqG8A#42b1473d3dec

Great, using a pandemic to promote p***y power.

To be fair, coronavirus did produce a couple of male state leaders (Trump, Bolsonaro...) whose response to the pandemic mainly consisted of bragging on TV and social media how badass they are while at the same time promoting false medication which might kill you.

The Guardian did a piece on that yesterday too:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/13/leaders-trump-bolsonaro-coroanvirus-toxic-masculinity

It's true though that not all male presidents are bad. Moon Jae-in did perfectly fine, for instance.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So, what am I missing? Are we seeing huge effects of social structure (larger households which allow infection even under lockdown)? Is there some impressive contact tracing going on in the USA that I am unaware off? Are lockdowns simply stricter on that side of the pond (and what about Sweden then)?

This is the most likely answer. Much of continental Europe is densely populated and have multi-generational households that increase contact between at-risk groups and the general population. Furthermore, countries like Italy, Spain, and France have top-heavy population pyramids. They also have less trust in government (esp. Italy), which is why you hear so many stories of people not taking lockdown seriously.

Countries like Germany and Sweden also skew older, but have less multi-generational households and have much stronger trust in government and people are more likely to follow social distancing directives.

Meanwhile, the U.S. skews much younger than virtually every European country (IIRC?), has fewer multi-generational households, and the American lifestyle (lack of public transit, high use of personal automobiles, more single-family homes) also inherently has a degree of social distancing built-in. This is despite a relative lack of trust in government like southern European countries, which helps explain why deaths per million have been lower. Finally, the U.S. was hit much later than most European countries, giving Americans some time to prepare and think about how to change their lives and learn what social distancing means.

And of course, statistics are not perfectly comparable due to the different methods used.

Every country is completely different.

[parochial boy]

I wouldn't rule out counting methods as having a pretty dramatic impact either. Just eyeballing the data being released by some of the Swiss cantons, about half of all recorded fatalities have been outside of hospitals, mostly in care homes, and this has been a proportion that has been growing since the start of the epidemic. Over the last few days, a majority of recorded fatalities have been amongst non-hospitalised victims, and that has been the reason that the total number of deaths has only just started to decline a couple of weeks after the peak in new infections and even after a steady decline in the number of hospitalised deaths. I am getting the impression that this picture has basically been replicated amongst other countries that have been reporting both hospitalised and non-hospitalised deaths.

The upshot of that is clearly that jurisdictions that are only recording deaths of people in hospital who have tested positive (thinking New York and the UK in particular here) are going to be pretty dramatically understating the real impact of the disease with their official figures.

[rosin]

It doesn’t seem like there has been any continued growth of the virus in Sweden; cases and deaths are way down there in the past 3-4 days, even more dramatically than other European countries.

Nah, today there are 114 new deaths, close to the absolute maximum recorded - so the most likely reason for the dip the previous days seems to be underreporting due to weekend/easter holidays (and the missing cases/deaths then giving the spike today)