COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/npratc/status/1247988083376549888?s=19

That's one way to try to hide the numbers: quit supporting tests all together. So, in what way would our handling be better than China's at that point?

F**ked up move.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The issue here is that Germany is very restrictive in assigning deaths to COVID-19.  The US and Italy use a method that appears to cover all deaths of patients who tested positive.  Germany does not and appears to only count patients who were otherwise healthy with no/minimal underlying conditions before getting COVID-19.  The numbers are not simply not comparable.

Source?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Another member of Congress tests positive:

https://mobile.twitter.com/abc27/status/1248291910000750593

[Grassroots]

Another member of Congress tests positive:

https://mobile.twitter.com/abc27/status/1248291910000750593

Dude looks so bad ass. He will beat covid to a pulp.

Breaking news: Coronavirus tests positive with Neal Dunn.

[Virginiá]

Dude looks so bad ass. He will beat covid to a pulp.

Breaking news: Coronavirus tests positive with Neal Dunn.

Breaking News: Grassr00ts tests positive with Florida Man crush

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

799 (+20) new deaths in NY today, all-time high. Bu #s are of new hospitalization way down.





US will probably to hit 2000+ today and certainly will overtaken Italy's totals in 2-3.

[FrancoAgo]

Italy has been testing since February, so they'll have tested the most just by virtue of doing it longer than anyone else has.  Reporting tests/million doesn't capture changes in testing capacity, which have a deterministic effect on the "new case" curve. 

today, or best from the 5 p.m. of yesterday to 5 p.m. of today (CEST)
we did 767 test per million

[Sbane]

Is there anyone here who still maintains that the US is on an Italy-type disease trajectory?  Or can we all reasonably agree that the United States looks like it will be one of the "success stories" of the global pandemic?  If so, can we talk about what factors have influenced the U.S. emerging relatively unscathed from this?  Better testing, more docs/ventilators, lower population density, younger demographics, warm weather, etc.

Social distancing occurring all across the US once the horrendous NYC data started rolling in a few weeks back. Places like California and Washington which got hit first did a great job starting social distancing early (since they didn't have tests). That avoided a disaster there. Places like NYC and LA which didn't socially distance and got early cases got hit hard. The rest of the country seems to be avoiding a similar fate by changing their behavior while the infection is not as prevalent in their communities. Hopefully this trajectory continues.

We could have possibly avoided social distancing and the resulting economic armageddon if we had tested early and aggressively. Not just people who went to China. We missed people bringing it from Europe. And we just pretended community spread wasn't occurring in the US until it was too late. Our best bet is to ramp up testing capability to such a high level that we can open up the country and control local epidemics as they pop up using aggressive testing, contact tracing and surveillance.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AngrierWHStaff/status/1248299586600517632

[Sbane]

Seems like really discouraging numbers out of Italy, with new cases and death up again.  I realize they still down from their actual peak, but how have they not made more progress after being under national lockdown for a full month?  Maybe the deaths will still lag by a month, but how can they still be getting so many new infections?

Likely because they are testing more. The testing failure was a world wide problem, not just here in the US. Only a few countries got it right from the beginning like South Korea.

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/AngrierWHStaff/status/1248299586600517632

[Absolution9]

I don’t see how the US reaches only 60k deaths from Covid in this first wave (to June 15).  20k+ are almost guaranteed in NYS alone based on the latest figures and how gently sloping the backside of the curve has proven in Italy.  It seems like the US is headed for 75-100k deaths.  

That’s still better than any major country in Central/Western Europe on a per capita basis aside from Germany.  Maybe it’s a result of overall population being less concentrated in our largest metro areas compared to almost every country in Europe.  The NYC metro area is roughly 6% of our population, by comparison Milan/Madrid/London/Paris metros range from roughly 10% to 18% of national population.

It doesn’t explain Canada’s excellent performance though, despite being a huge country the population is even more concentrated in its largest metros than in France/UK.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1247979820144889857https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1248035366914994181

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1248315719214825472

[Del Tachi]

I dont think Australia, Germany, USA and South Korea got the lesser version compared to Italy, France, UK and Spain.

Clearly testing rates in the latter countries are much lower as Dr Birx hinted yesterday.

test per million

Australia 12,946
Germany 15,730
USA 6,872
South Korea 9,310
Italy 14,114
France 3,436
UK 4,155
Spain 7,593


We have town with 2-3% of mortality, it's not possible a fatality rate of 0.37%

Italy has been testing since February, so they'll have tested the most just by virtue of doing it longer than anyone else has.  Reporting tests/million doesn't capture changes in testing capacity, which have a deterministic effect on the "new case" curve. 

The issue here is that Germany is very restrictive in assigning deaths to COVID-19.  The US and Italy use a method that appears to cover all deaths of patients who tested positive.  Germany does not and appears to only count patients who were otherwise healthy with no/minimal underlying conditions before getting COVID-19.  The numbers are not simply not comparable.

From an epidemiological standpoint, I'd just like to point out there's no "correct" way to attribute deaths in the midst of a pandemic that is particularly hard on older, sicker people.  If an 87-year old New Yorker with CHF develops severe pneumonia and dies is it COVID-19?  Even without positive tests, the CDC is recommending that it might be.  We won't know the true story until several years from now, when we can look at the all-cause mortality figures in confidence.  The media's fixation on deaths counts is understandable, but these numbers are likely to be significantly off (in either direction).  The CDC typically doesn't report mortality from recent seasonal flu pandemics with a high-degree of precision, but it looks like they're making an effort to do exactly that with COVID-19. 

[Skill and Chance]

I dont think Australia, Germany, USA and South Korea got the lesser version compared to Italy, France, UK and Spain.

Clearly testing rates in the latter countries are much lower as Dr Birx hinted yesterday.

test per million

Australia 12,946
Germany 15,730
USA 6,872
South Korea 9,310
Italy 14,114
France 3,436
UK 4,155
Spain 7,593


We have town with 2-3% of mortality, it's not possible a fatality rate of 0.37%

Italy has been testing since February, so they'll have tested the most just by virtue of doing it longer than anyone else has.  Reporting tests/million doesn't capture changes in testing capacity, which have a deterministic effect on the "new case" curve. 

The issue here is that Germany is very restrictive in assigning deaths to COVID-19.  The US and Italy use a method that appears to cover all deaths of patients who tested positive.  Germany does not and appears to only count patients who were otherwise healthy with no/minimal underlying conditions before getting COVID-19.  The numbers are not simply not comparable.

From an epidemiological standpoint, I'd just like to point out there's no "correct" way to attribute deaths in the midst of a pandemic that is particularly hard on older, sicker people.  If an 87-year old New Yorker with CHF develops severe pneumonia and dies is it COVID-19?  Even without positive tests, the CDC is recommending that it might be.  We won't know the true story until several years from now, when we can look at the all-cause mortality figures in confidence.  The media's fixation on deaths counts is understandable, but these numbers are likely to be significantly off (in either direction).  The CDC typically doesn't report mortality from recent seasonal flu pandemics with a high-degree of precision, but it looks like they're making an effort to do exactly that with COVID-19. 

Germany's method is defensible, but it means that comparing their numbers to our numbers is apples and oranges.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1248315818854748160

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1248035366914994181

Very confusing graph for an even more confusing model.  So on April 2, the model predicted that infections in Georgia would peak on April 5, and then on April 5 they changed the peak to April 25??  I don’t really see how that can be trusted at all.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1246146713523453957

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/insulinth0t/status/1248090270953951232?s=20

[Fritz]

This has probably been discussed somewhere already, but can someone explain what is happening in China?  Their caseload has been stuck at 81,000 for over a month now, it appears to be over.  Of course, the Chinese government could be lying about the numbers, but how could they keep secret large numbers of new cases and deaths?  Has China actually beaten this thing, and if so, how?  Is it because they instituted draconian lockdowns that would not be done in a democracy?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1248316823302483969?s=19

ANTIFA JOSH

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1248316823302483969?s=19

Happening never, lol

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1248316823302483969?s=19

ANTIFA JOSH

He's so based holy crap.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1248336179575115776