COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1247241845387735043

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is now acting-PM.

Ugh.

I obviously don't need to break down "intensive care" for you, Torrain. 

[It’s so Joever]

Turning central park into a graveyard seems like something out of a SciFi movie.  Surely they can find something to do with the bodies that's less damaging to morale?

Soylent Green?

[It’s so Joever]

   Any one have thoughts about what states might become the next NYC/NJ area, not in terms of total deaths of course, but in per capita terms?  For the worst case scenario overall to play out this will need to start happening. I'm cautiously optimistic that thats not occuring. In Louisiana for instance deaths have been in the mid two figures for many days now, and the rise in ventilators, at least according to the state wide website is unfortunatly going up every day, but not by alot.
   Michigan is also concerning, but I wonder if deaths there are plateauing or if its a false calm.
On the whole I'm starting to lean more optimistic overall that we are heading for the lower side of deaths due to the virus.

Indiana, Maryland, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida are my picks. Most of the cases will be in the largest cities of these States.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Step 1. There are projections that a huge number of people will die if no action is taken, but if certain actions are taken then the number will be much less.

Step 2. Those actions are taken.

Step 3. The number of deaths is close to the smaller number above.

Step 4.  Some people say "see, we didn't need to do this after all!  It was all fear mongering."

Conclusion: some people don't understand cause and effect.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MarshallCohen/status/1247236706773995522

[wbrocks67]

There are still states that won't even do a stay at home order. There's no way things are just "going back to normal" by May 1 and anyone who thinks that is naive.

[Badger]

Newsweek just released an article titled FDR, REAGAN AND OBAMA WON RE-ELECTION WITH MORE THAN 7% UNEMPLOYMENT. AMID CORONAVIRUS, COULD TRUMP?



but what they forgot to point out is that every one of those presidents entered office when things were already going bad but by time the election came around the economy improved enough for all 3 of them to be reelected

Trump on the other hand entered office when things were going good but now the economy has fallen off a cliff and many have now died because of his lackluster response to the virus at the start

So good luck trying to sell a record like that to voters in November because at the rate things are currently going Trump is going to need all the luck he can get lol  

A couple of stray observations:

1. Trump's entire selling point was bringing jobs back. 15% unemployment kind of undermines that, regardless of its cause. Very bad for Trump.

2. The complete binary ideological sorting of our country means Trump voters are predisposed to crediting him for positive economic numbers and blaming forces outside his control for negative economic numbers. Good for Trump.

3. When you're out of work, you don't really care why. You're mad and you want change. Bad for Trump.

4. How you view the state of the economy when Trump took office is also determined by how you've been sorted. Trump voters thought Obama made a mess of things in his second term, while Hillary voters thought things were great. Good for Trump.

I think the sum total still comes out very poorly for Trump's re-election prospects, but so many things could happen in the next seven months. Trump gets constant, non-stop press coverage, Biden can't even hold rallies. And the halt to the primary season completely knocks Biden out of the 24-hour news cycle. That alone gives Trump a huge edge.

I take your point that negative partisanship will likely give Trump a higher floor -- but being on the news 24/7 for catastrophically failing to contain a virus is not going to help Trump with Democrats or independents.

This. To any extent that Obama Trump voters in places like Northeast Ohio and West Pennsylvania warrant actually, as 538 hypothesized, just Obama Republicans / conservatives, he's going to have a hell of a time keeping those voters in his foal. Obviously though he still has a very high floor just like blue cat said which will save him from a Hooveresque or even Carter level of drubbing.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Roommate has tested positive. 

Not really much more to say on that other than hoping that there's some avenue to make those with whom she came into contact on her way from Philly to Montana aware of it. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1247255221560053761

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The model https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Here is the explanations of what and why changed in their model and their predictions.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

Here is comparisons across model updates for all states, that is their predictions of
March 26
vs
April 2
vs
April 5
per state and for US totally.
http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/comparing_dailydeathpredictions_byrelease_all_0.pdf

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1247262950425079808

First statement from Dominic Raab, the acting PM.

[Badger]

Roommate has tested positive. 

Not really much more to say on that other than hoping that there's some avenue to make those with whom she came into contact on her way from Philly to Montana aware of it. 

That sucks.

Hope you're doing okay?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AndyShain/status/1247258999239708676

There are now 7 states left, I think?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Roommate has tested positive. 

Not really much more to say on that other than hoping that there's some avenue to make those with whom she came into contact on her way from Philly to Montana aware of it. 

That sucks.

Hope you're doing okay?

Pretty uncomfortable, sore, and sweating like crazy, but I'll get through it -- thank you, Badger.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Roommate has tested positive. 

Not really much more to say on that other than hoping that there's some avenue to make those with whom she came into contact on her way from Philly to Montana aware of it. 

That sucks.

Hope you're doing okay?

Pretty uncomfortable, sore, and sweating like crazy, but I'll get through it -- thank you, Badger.

Sweating is good. It means your temperature is falling.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Roommate has tested positive. 

Not really much more to say on that other than hoping that there's some avenue to make those with whom she came into contact on her way from Philly to Montana aware of it. 

That sucks.

Hope you're doing okay?

Pretty uncomfortable, sore, and sweating like crazy, but I'll get through it -- thank you, Badger.

 

Have you lost any sense of smell or taste? I lost both around day 6

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AndyShain/status/1247258999239708676

There are now 7 states left, I think?

The Governors dragging their feet on this is the reason that the lockdowns are gonna end up lasting way longer than they had to.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/AndyShain/status/1247258999239708676

There are now 7 states left, I think?

The Governors dragging their feet on this is the reason that the lockdowns are gonna end up lasting way longer than they had to.

Thankfully our government acted swiftly when there were still a handful of cases and now we are doing pretty good. There is even word that by June we may see a considerable relaxation of the lockdown.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Roommate has tested positive. 

Not really much more to say on that other than hoping that there's some avenue to make those with whom she came into contact on her way from Philly to Montana aware of it. 

That sucks.

Hope you're doing okay?

Pretty uncomfortable, sore, and sweating like crazy, but I'll get through it -- thank you, Badger.

 

Have you lost any sense of smell or taste? I lost both around day 6

No anosmia or dysgeusia, fortunately. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Roommate has tested positive. 

Not really much more to say on that other than hoping that there's some avenue to make those with whom she came into contact on her way from Philly to Montana aware of it. 

That sucks.

Hope you're doing okay?

Pretty uncomfortable, sore, and sweating like crazy, but I'll get through it -- thank you, Badger.

Sweating is good. It means your temperature is falling.

My body's trying to get things under control.  Temperature has remained pretty steady at around 102.2-102.5*F. 

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/AndyShain/status/1247258999239708676

There are now 7 states left, I think?

The Governors dragging their feet on this is the reason that the lockdowns are gonna end up lasting way longer than they had to.

Thankfully our government acted swiftly when there were still a handful of cases and now we are doing pretty good. There is even word that by June we may see a considerable relaxation of the lockdown.

In America there's a 99% chance the lockdown is going to flat out end before June. How bad is it there!?

[MasterJedi]

https://twitter.com/AndyShain/status/1247258999239708676

There are now 7 states left, I think?

The Governors dragging their feet on this is the reason that the lockdowns are gonna end up lasting way longer than they had to.

Thankfully our government acted swiftly when there were still a handful of cases and now we are doing pretty good. There is even word that by June we may see a considerable relaxation of the lockdown.

In America there's a 99% chance the lockdown is going to flat out end before June. How bad is it there!?

Lol, the second they open everything back up there's going to be another wave going out, this is Murica after all.

[Bidenworth2020]

Apparently Trump and Biden called each other today to discuss steps forward. All disagreements aside, I am glad that Trump got the opportunity to discuss the intricacies of this with someone who dealt with something similar with SwineFlu, particularly from the standpoint of a non-medical professional.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Truly, Mr. Trump and his Republicans have made America First!

If you think, it is fair to compare Spain (47mln) and US (327 mln), you should also think it's fair to compare NY (20 mln) and Kansas (3 mln). Kidding, I know, it's bad-faith from ya.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1247251363148554245
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1247252854877949952

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think it is now reasonable to conclude that the -exponential- growth period of the virus, or at least the first wave of it, is now over.  It may still be growing, but it definitely seems like the rate of that growth, at least expressed as a percentage, is slowing.