COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[100% pro-life no matter what]

When are we going to be willing to have a conversation about whether we have massively overreacted without people saying that anyone who doesn't repeat the #StayAtHomeFor18Months #FlattenTheCurve mantra is wanting people to die?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246491967841882112

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1246468772002750469

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

 It's not just toilet paper and eggs, though. People are also panic buying surgical masks and rubbing alcohol. Things that are useful to help protect oneself from COVID. I have had to go grocery shopping without a mask more than once since the lockdown began because I simply did not have any on hand, and I am quite aware that I put myself (and consequently my elderly mother) at risk by doing so.

     As for the healthcare side, I am guessing that Del Tachi is referring to the strain on hospitals and not the actual immediate fact of people dying. I could be mistaken, however.

I might very well be totally wrong, but my understanding is that masks don't help you protecting yourself, unless you know how to use them, change them often etc. May be marginally.  But they help you to protect others if you are infected.

[GeorgiaModerate]

On a positive note:

Pet fostering takes off as coronavirus keeps Americans home

Shelters from California to New York have put out the call for people to temporarily foster pets. Thanks to an overwhelming response from people who suddenly found themselves stuck at home, shelters say they have placed record numbers of dogs, cats and other animals. If past trends hold, many of those who agree to temporarily care for a pet will ultimately decide they want the animal to stay for good.

[Badger]

So since this is a thread for essentially all things coronavirus related, another chapter in my business is ongoing quest to seek Financial relief. So my law partner , God bless him, first called our bank at 9 this morning as scheduled. He got an automated message to call back at 2. He did so and then got an automated message to call back at 2:30.

Upon doing so he got an automated message saying to call back later. He called every two to three minutes for over 45 minutes before they even put him on hold. Let me reiterate that in his words. What type of f****** timeline do we live in where one celebrates the accomplishment of being put on hold?

And then, then, after waiting on hold for an hour, he gets another automated message saying we are experiencing difficulties processing your call, please try back again later.

And hangs up on him. The fact that he did not throw his phone against the wall proves he's a much better man than I.

At least he was able to get immediately back on hold when he called back a minute later oh, so hooray for small victories. He's planning on ordering pizza and staying by the phone so that we don't have to wait until Monday which could put us further back in the line of applicants. What a trooper.

This is what small businesses across this country are dealing with. And we've been proactive as hell in jumping on relief applications. God help anyone that's been tied up doing actual, you know, work to earn money rather than my partner spending a significant part of his work day the last couple weeks, along with my office manager, filling out forms and reading online is to Avenues we can pursue.

Update. I took over after my partner threw in the towel, justifiably after the hours of garbage went through. Sat on hold for 20 minutes, got cut off at 6. Called back, no further calls outside of their 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. business hours. Pandemic? What pandemic?

Further update. We actually had to do an end-run around the 888 number and, as a desperation move, call our local branch manager. It worked! Our application was entered!

Now we need to wait up to a week before it is actually processed.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

For the people panicking, most of Europe currently has had similar restrictions on grocery stores for weeks. We have not fallen to anarchy yet.

In any case, I don't understand why blue avatars are complaining about it being difficult for them to get some particular things from stores. The Republican philosophy is "I've got mine."

If you don't have yours, you have nobody but yourself to blame. I've got mine. If you don't got yours, then maybe you should have been smarter. Rather than blaming others or blaming the system, blame yourself and for your failure to adequately provide for yourself and pull yourself up by your bootstraps. That is what the GOP is all about.

[Skill and Chance]

When are we going to be willing to have a conversation about whether we have massively overreacted without people saying that anyone who doesn't repeat the #StayAtHomeFor18Months #FlattenTheCurve mantra is wanting people to die?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246491967841882112

Places that have done (somewhat) randomized population testing have not found this.  San Miguel County, Colorado did randomized testing and found found 1% of their population tested positive, with another 2% ambiguous.  Iceland has tested 5% of their country's population, some of it random, and some of it directed at obviously sick people.  They had 1319 positives out of over 20,000 tests, and they said only 50% of those tested positive did not have symptoms when they were tested. Some of them later got sick enough to seek care, so that points to <50% being truly asymptomatic.  This also matches a study in Wuhan that tested for antibodies and found 43% of the people who tested positive for coronavirus antibodies never got sick enough to seek care.  

Castiglione d'Adda was one of the earliest and hardest hit towns in Northern Italy.  There was a report that 70% of people who showed up to donate blood last week had antibodies, so that town may have herd immunity now if that is verified.  But, crucially, they have already lost about 2% of their total 2017 population to coronavirus.  Many other people there are still very sick and at risk of dying from it.  That's what any jurisdiction that goes for herd immunity is risking.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

When are we going to be willing to have a conversation about whether we have massively overreacted without people saying that anyone who doesn't repeat the #StayAtHomeFor18Months #FlattenTheCurve mantra is wanting people to die?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246491967841882112

Maybe when we have evidence (not self-reported speculation) from actual scientists along the lines of what is listed in the tweet. The 50x number you're quoting is drawn out of thin air. Your confirmation bias is showing.

San Miguel County, CO (Telluride) is trying to test everyone in the county (giving a much better idea of what asymptomatic infection rates are). They're only about 15% of the way there but preliminary results show, at most, 4% infection, with only 1% absolute positives.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

When are we going to be willing to have a conversation about whether we have massively overreacted without people saying that anyone who doesn't repeat the #StayAtHomeFor18Months #FlattenTheCurve mantra is wanting people to die?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246491967841882112

Maybe when we have evidence (not self-reported speculation) from actual scientists along the lines of what is listed in the tweet. The 50x number you're quoting is drawn out of thin air. Your confirmation bias is showing.

San Miguel County, CO (Telluride) is trying to test everyone in the county (giving a much better idea of what asymptomatic infection rates are). They're only about 15% of the way there but preliminary results show, at most, 4% infection, with only 1% absolute positives.

11 million people would only be about 3% of the US.

[Skill and Chance]

When are we going to be willing to have a conversation about whether we have massively overreacted without people saying that anyone who doesn't repeat the #StayAtHomeFor18Months #FlattenTheCurve mantra is wanting people to die?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246491967841882112

Maybe when we have evidence (not self-reported speculation) from actual scientists along the lines of what is listed in the tweet. The 50x number you're quoting is drawn out of thin air. Your confirmation bias is showing.

San Miguel County, CO (Telluride) is trying to test everyone in the county (giving a much better idea of what asymptomatic infection rates are). They're only about 15% of the way there but preliminary results show, at most, 4% infection, with only 1% absolute positives.

This.  There is absolutely no evidence for these theories that half the population already got it as a mild cold.  It's also unclear if people who survive it are conclusively safe from future reinfection to begin with.  

[100% pro-life no matter what]

When are we going to be willing to have a conversation about whether we have massively overreacted without people saying that anyone who doesn't repeat the #StayAtHomeFor18Months #FlattenTheCurve mantra is wanting people to die?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246491967841882112

Maybe when we have evidence (not self-reported speculation) from actual scientists along the lines of what is listed in the tweet. The 50x number you're quoting is drawn out of thin air. Your confirmation bias is showing.

Mina is also saying that's the upper bound of what he would consider an unsurprising result — if you scroll up two tweets he says it could be 2 million, 4 million, somewhere in that range. Travis is cherry-picking the highest figure he threw out and treating it like he's making a much more specific claim than he is.

I recognize that it's a high estimate, and I don't agree that it's less deadly than influenza.  My argument for weeks has been that it's slightly more deadly than the flu (probably 0.25-0.5% vs. 0.1%), but that it's not deadly enough to justify drastic changes to daily life, except perhaps for the most vulnerable.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

When are we going to be willing to have a conversation about whether we have massively overreacted without people saying that anyone who doesn't repeat the #StayAtHomeFor18Months #FlattenTheCurve mantra is wanting people to die?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246491967841882112

Maybe when we have evidence (not self-reported speculation) from actual scientists along the lines of what is listed in the tweet. The 50x number you're quoting is drawn out of thin air. Your confirmation bias is showing.

San Miguel County, CO (Telluride) is trying to test everyone in the county (giving a much better idea of what asymptomatic infection rates are). They're only about 15% of the way there but preliminary results show, at most, 4% infection, with only 1% absolute positives.

11 million people would only be about 3% of the US.

Extrapolating from a (nonrandom) sample of 1000 tests out to 330 million people is statistical malpractice.

With that said, out of the ~1000 tests they've performed, they have 9 positives. Extrapolating that out to the US population gives only 3 million. Of course, there's (relatively) massive uncertainty in that estimate, and San Miguel is not representative of the rest of the US.

There's no actual evidence that there are 11 million people infected.

[Mr. Morden]

De Blasio (like Kemp) thinks we only learned within the last 48 hours that asymptomatic people could spread the virus:

https://www.mediaite.com/news/bill-de-blasio-rejects-claim-u-s-knew-asymptomatic-people-could-spread-the-virus-only-learned-that-in-the-last-48-hours/

“The city’s position used to be that healthy people don’t need masks because they’re not very effective at preventing the virus from coming in, they’re mostly from keeping you from spreading it, so explain this new recommendation,” Lehrer said.

“Exactly, it’s still the fundamental truth, so we have, you know, a renowned health department here in New York City… only in the last really 48 hours or so do they feel they’ve seen evidence around the world, particularly a new study coming out of Singapore, that shows more evidence that this disease can be spread by asymptomatic people,” de Blasio responded.
.
.
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When Lehrer asked, “Didn’t we know weeks and months ago that asymptomatic people can spread this disease?” The mayor insisted we did not.

“No, the fact is I’ve been at so many press conferences where our top doctors for New York City addressed this and they said ‘we just didn’t have evidence from all the global medical community that was studying this issue,” de Blasio told Lehrer. “There was suspicion, but there was not evidence.”

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Some people on Atlas are underestimating how much live sports would be a morale boost for tens of millions of people.  Being able to watch sports every day would take my pain level in this from a 9/10 to a 6.5/10 just like that.

Hopefully they can figure out a strategy to bring back sports, even without crowds.

My God, Americans have really gone soft.

Imagine just for a moment that you are in the 1st Infantry Division on the morning of June 6, 1944 and are storming Omaha Beach. You would not be complaining that you can't watch sports on TV every day.

Or imagine that it is 1350, you are a European peasant, and the plague has just made its way into the next village.

Truly, we are a decadent society.

Get some perspective, you have it good. If you want sports, watch a re-run game or play a simulated sports video game on your computer/personal entertainment system of choice.

[Torrain]

When are we going to be willing to have a conversation about whether we have massively overreacted without people saying that anyone who doesn't repeat the #StayAtHomeFor18Months #FlattenTheCurve mantra is wanting people to die?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246491967841882112

Maybe when we have evidence (not self-reported speculation) from actual scientists along the lines of what is listed in the tweet. The 50x number you're quoting is drawn out of thin air. Your confirmation bias is showing.

Mina is also saying that's the upper bound of what he would consider an unsurprising result — if you scroll up two tweets he says it could be 2 million, 4 million, somewhere in that range. Travis is cherry-picking the highest figure he threw out and treating it like he's making a much more specific claim than he is.

I recognize that it's a high estimate, and I don't agree that it's less deadly than influenza.  My argument for weeks has been that it's slightly more deadly than the flu (probably 0.25-0.5% vs. 0.1%), but that it's not deadly enough to justify drastic changes to daily life, except perhaps for the most vulnerable.

I understand that is your argument, but it goes against all prevailing science.

The COVID-19 death rate appears to be between 1-2%, but given China's manipulation of the data, and the underreporting of home deaths in Europe, we're still confirming that. I don't want to assume that the 1-2% ballpark is spot on, it certainly seems the best guess. And I'll take journals like the Lancet, and outlets like the Economist over Twitter users any day.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30245-0/fulltext
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/03/covid-19s-death-toll-appears-higher-than-official-figures-suggest

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's also very likely that deaths from COVID-19 are being significantly under-reported due to lack of confirmation of infection.  If this is the case, and numerous articles support that it is, then comparing the actual number of deaths to any estimated number of cases is inherently flawed, and will certainly underestimate the fatality rate.  For consistency, you need to either compare actual deaths to actual reported cases, or estimated deaths to estimated total cases.

It's likely that we won't be able to estimate the true death toll until after the fact, by calculating excess deaths over the number that would have been expected in a typical population during the same period.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just because my brain is incredibly small:  Badger, every time I see your current username iteration, I think that I'm getting yelled at for a half second

--

And just because nobody has told me to stop or to shut up (and y'all are free to), here's a quick update on my condition for today:

Still having some respiratory discomfort (particularly upon inspiration), but it's still nowhere near what I've heard described in other accounts -- our own #TSA stated that it was almost impossible for him to lie down.  

The fever is still raging, but hasn't seen any significant increase across the past few days.  My vitals are also relatively stable, though I saw an unusual and rapid-onset drop in my blood pressure this morning that required me to lie down for a little while.  As I've mentioned, my blood pressure tends to run on the low end of the acceptable spectrum, but it's definitely something that I'll be monitoring.  

My pulse-ox is lower than it should be, but not in the zone where I would require extra O2.  I'm not experiencing any significant shortness of breath or difficulty breathing.  

Overall, I'd say that my case isn't a necessarily a mild one.  In short, it HURTS.  But it's certainly nowhere near the nightmarish cases about which I've read.  

--

As a footnote: I mentioned yesterday that my roommate (in the state of Montana) is currently awaiting her test results.   For those unfamiliar, the origin of both my case and her potential case was her ex-boyfriend.  She'd been in contact with him (while he was asymptomatic) just before leaving Philadelphia to drive back home to Billings.  A few days later, he made an unexpected visit at my apartment to try to patch things up with her, not aware that she had left.  I should have been more careful and, looking back on it, he had a chesty, non-productive cough that he claimed was "just allergies".  

Besides her health, the biggest concern right now is that her travels took her through at least six states not including PA and MT: OH, IN, IL, WI, MN, and ND.  She stopped at numerous gas stations and at least one hotel.  

It just shows how easily these things can spread.  

--

Be safe, everybody!

[Fuzzy Bear]

When are we going to be willing to have a conversation about whether we have massively overreacted without people saying that anyone who doesn't repeat the #StayAtHomeFor18Months #FlattenTheCurve mantra is wanting people to die?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246491967841882112

Hopefully soon.  I'm a 63 year old in an essential occupation.  I have come to believe that this is an overreaction that has arisen out of good and bad motives.

The medical and scientific "experts" (and I'm not denying their expertise) have, indeed, been repeatedly wrong about this issue, and that includes the now Iconic Dr. Fauci.  John Kerry was for the Iraq war before he was against it and Anthony Fauci thought this would be a minor deal before it came the Bubonic Plague Lite.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/17/nih-disease-official-anthony-fauci-risk-of-coronavirus-in-u-s-is-minuscule-skip-mask-and-wash-hands/4787209002/

If that testing shows the virus has slipped into the country in places federal officials don't know about, "we've got a problem," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told USA TODAY's Editorial Board Monday.

Short of that, Fauci says skip the masks unless you are contagious, don't worry about catching anything from Chinese products and certainly don't avoid Chinese people or restaurants.

That was February 19, 2020.  Here's what he said April 2:

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/fauci-national-lockdown-stay-at-home-orders-152802623.html

As more U.S. states issue stay-at-home orders and the federal government recommends a 30-day period of social distancing, Dr. Anthony Fauci on Thursday suggested the need for a national lockdown, while acknowledging he does not have the authority to order one.

Fauci has lectured Americans about how people will die and how we need to stay at home longer, or "people will die".  And I get that.  I get it about "lowering the curve".  But will people not die if we tank the economy and they cannot maintain basic necessities?  Tucker Carlson stated last night in pondering the issue that we can go on like this long enough to where we become a poorer nation going forward.  Is he wrong?  Is that an outcome that can happen.  Carlson also suggested that poorer nations are less healthy than richer nations.  Is he wrong?

Our system of government is not an "expertocracy".  There's a place for experts, and Fauci is indeed that, but it's easy for him to talk how others need to hang in there because he's not losing his job and he's got the means to ride out whatever comes.  The same can't be said for millions of Americans' their entire future can be altered for the worse, and permanently so, if they have to do without doing business for 3-4 months (or even longer).  Business "experts" predict all sorts of 1929 scenarios should this go on for 5-6 months; are they to just be blown off?

There does become a point where the cure is worse than the disease.  That needs to be honestly discussed.  I'm not convinced that locking down America to the extreme degree we have is a solution that is smaller than the problem.  Perhaps it IS necessary.  But I'm not willing to blindly listen to "experts" uncritically.  It was the foreign policy Anthony Faucis that advised LBJ prior to the Gulf of Tonkin resolution all the way up through the Tet Offensive.  

[Skill and Chance]

When are we going to be willing to have a conversation about whether we have massively overreacted without people saying that anyone who doesn't repeat the #StayAtHomeFor18Months #FlattenTheCurve mantra is wanting people to die?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246491967841882112

Maybe when we have evidence (not self-reported speculation) from actual scientists along the lines of what is listed in the tweet. The 50x number you're quoting is drawn out of thin air. Your confirmation bias is showing.

Mina is also saying that's the upper bound of what he would consider an unsurprising result — if you scroll up two tweets he says it could be 2 million, 4 million, somewhere in that range. Travis is cherry-picking the highest figure he threw out and treating it like he's making a much more specific claim than he is.

I recognize that it's a high estimate, and I don't agree that it's less deadly than influenza.  My argument for weeks has been that it's slightly more deadly than the flu (probably 0.25-0.5% vs. 0.1%), but that it's not deadly enough to justify drastic changes to daily life, except perhaps for the most vulnerable.

Does anyone know if the widely reported 0.1% normal influenza death rate includes some estimate of people who get mildly sick and recover at home?  Or is the denominator just the number of people who get sick enough to seek formal care and test positive?

[GeorgiaModerate]

De Blasio (like Kemp) thinks we only learned within the last 48 hours that asymptomatic people could spread the virus:

https://www.mediaite.com/news/bill-de-blasio-rejects-claim-u-s-knew-asymptomatic-people-could-spread-the-virus-only-learned-that-in-the-last-48-hours/

“The city’s position used to be that healthy people don’t need masks because they’re not very effective at preventing the virus from coming in, they’re mostly from keeping you from spreading it, so explain this new recommendation,” Lehrer said.

“Exactly, it’s still the fundamental truth, so we have, you know, a renowned health department here in New York City… only in the last really 48 hours or so do they feel they’ve seen evidence around the world, particularly a new study coming out of Singapore, that shows more evidence that this disease can be spread by asymptomatic people,” de Blasio responded.
.
.
.
When Lehrer asked, “Didn’t we know weeks and months ago that asymptomatic people can spread this disease?” The mayor insisted we did not.

“No, the fact is I’ve been at so many press conferences where our top doctors for New York City addressed this and they said ‘we just didn’t have evidence from all the global medical community that was studying this issue,” de Blasio told Lehrer. “There was suspicion, but there was not evidence.”

I guess they don't listen to Dr. Fauci:

https://twitter.com/OKnox/status/1246493897712418827

[Torrain]

You know, GOP posters.

You belong to one of the only political parties in the western world that denies the existence of climate change as a real and man-made threat. Your party has overruled doctors, nurses and healthcare experts to impose bizarre restrictions on abortion. Your party has demeaned and belittled the scientific community as shills and liars for decades, in an astonishing display of projection.

Now, we're seeing, in frustrating detail what happens when a party indoctrinates its voters to ignore the experts on a range of scientific issues and instead trust the Trumps and DeSantis types of the world.

It doesn't surprise me that Extreme Republican and Fuzzy Bear believe they know more about epidemiology than Dr Fauci, or a suite of European doctors.

I just wish there was a way to prove them wrong that didn't involve the loss of further life.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Do we know when things will be back to normal? (meaning: large gatherings, multiple people shopping, non-essential businessis open, no National Gaurd at state boarders, not having to wear masks, etc)?

[Fuzzy Bear]

You know, GOP posters.

You belong to one of the only political parties in the western world that denies the existence of climate change as a real and man-made threat. Your party has overruled doctors, nurses and healthcare experts to impose bizarre restrictions on abortion. Your party has demeaned and belittled the scientific community as shills and liars for decades, in an astonishing display of projection.

Now, we're seeing, in frustrating detail what happens when a party indoctrinates its voters to ignore the experts on a range of scientific issues and instead trust the Trumps and DeSantis types of the world.

It doesn't surprise me that Extreme Republican and Fuzzy Bear believe they know more about epidemiology than Dr Fauci, or a suite of European doctors.

I just wish there was a way to prove them wrong that didn't involve the loss of further life.

I've never said to blow the "experts" off.  But "experts" often disagree, and the "expert" that is currently front and center was pretty much wrong 2 months ago.

Do we just leave the military to the "experts" (the Generals)?  Do we just leave Law Enforcement to the "experts" (the Police)?  We don't do that any more than we just leave everything to business "experts".  Experts see life through THEIR area of expertise, but their expertise is only one area of life.  Our civilian government's job is to balance these competing worldviews as much as possible.

I'm not anti-science, by the way.  I do live in the real world, however, and that real world is a world where there are alternatives for fossil fuels, but no substitute for fossil fuels.  Without fossil fuels, our way of life would be drastically impacted if we stopped using them all now.  That's another issue, but it illustrates the fact that this problem, as well as the climate problem, involves choices that have negative impacts that are significant, whichever way we choose.

[Skill and Chance]

When are we going to be willing to have a conversation about whether we have massively overreacted without people saying that anyone who doesn't repeat the #StayAtHomeFor18Months #FlattenTheCurve mantra is wanting people to die?

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1246491967841882112

Hopefully soon.  I'm a 63 year old in an essential occupation.  I have come to believe that this is an overreaction that has arisen out of good and bad motives.

The medical and scientific "experts" (and I'm not denying their expertise) have, indeed, been repeatedly wrong about this issue, and that includes the now Iconic Dr. Fauci.  John Kerry was for the Iraq war before he was against it and Anthony Fauci thought this would be a minor deal before it came the Bubonic Plague Lite.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/17/nih-disease-official-anthony-fauci-risk-of-coronavirus-in-u-s-is-minuscule-skip-mask-and-wash-hands/4787209002/

If that testing shows the virus has slipped into the country in places federal officials don't know about, "we've got a problem," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told USA TODAY's Editorial Board Monday.

Short of that, Fauci says skip the masks unless you are contagious, don't worry about catching anything from Chinese products and certainly don't avoid Chinese people or restaurants.

That was February 19, 2020.  Here's what he said April 2:

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/fauci-national-lockdown-stay-at-home-orders-152802623.html

As more U.S. states issue stay-at-home orders and the federal government recommends a 30-day period of social distancing, Dr. Anthony Fauci on Thursday suggested the need for a national lockdown, while acknowledging he does not have the authority to order one.

Fauci has lectured Americans about how people will die and how we need to stay at home longer, or "people will die".  And I get that.  I get it about "lowering the curve".  But will people not die if we tank the economy and they cannot maintain basic necessities?  Tucker Carlson stated last night in pondering the issue that we can go on like this long enough to where we become a poorer nation going forward.  Is he wrong?  Is that an outcome that can happen.  Carlson also suggested that poorer nations are less healthy than richer nations.  Is he wrong?

Our system of government is not an "expertocracy".  There's a place for experts, and Fauci is indeed that, but it's easy for him to talk how others need to hang in there because he's not losing his job and he's got the means to ride out whatever comes.  The same can't be said for millions of Americans' their entire future can be altered for the worse, and permanently so, if they have to do without doing business for 3-4 months (or even longer).  Business "experts" predict all sorts of 1929 scenarios should this go on for 5-6 months; are they to just be blown off?

There does become a point where the cure is worse than the disease.  That needs to be honestly discussed.  I'm not convinced that locking down America to the extreme degree we have is a solution that is smaller than the problem.  Perhaps it IS necessary.  But I'm not willing to blindly listen to "experts" uncritically.  It was the foreign policy Anthony Faucis that advised LBJ prior to the Gulf of Tonkin resolution all the way up through the Tet Offensive.  

Well, it depends on whether it's a hard or soft shutdown and for how long.  A soft shutdown until summer 2021 is probably more manageable than a hard shutdown for 3 months, so we need to be thinking about what intermediate measures will look like and how to prepare for them.  

But I think there is too much economic doomsaying in general.  The market crash is less severe than 2000 or 2008 so far.  There is evidence that the most aggressively responding local governments in 1918 had the most V-shaped recoveries afterward.  The healthcare and manufacturing innovation that is needed to get out of this will attract displaced workers and capital and drive some new growth in its own right.  The jobs that have been lost are disproportionately the least specialized.  Retraining is eminently viable.  

I also think many are overstating the impact of the government mandates.  Knowing everything we do about the risks of the virus, how many people would go out to eat or to the movies tomorrow, let alone get on a flight to go to a convention even if everything was still legally open?  Virtually no one vs. how many did those things in December!  The formal regulations are about getting the last ~20% of the population in line.  The great majority already altered their behavior voluntarily.  There may be a permanent decline in the share of US GDP occupied by restaurants, 3rd party childcare, and international meetings, but relax, the US was one of the most prosperous countries in the world for nearly a century before any of those were even a blip on our cultural map.  

[PSOL]

U.S. dairy farmers dump milk

Such a waste!