COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: Masks

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1246015654689476608


Re: Singapore

https://twitter.com/JohnSpringford/status/1246015702894608385
If even they failed...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: Singapore

https://twitter.com/JohnSpringford/status/1246015702894608385
If even they failed...

They didn't fail.

Failed to put it under control without close-downs that is. Stop misinterpret.

No, Trump didn't slow down testing. Didn't cut CDC, either.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Highest testing states:
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1245838887135481857
Lowest testing states:
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1245838564404998144

These stats is by the way fairly misleading, too.

As far as I know most states have similar policy — test only people with symptoms. So states with more infected people per capita will test more per capita. It should be very strong correlation there.

Death is very good (but lagging) proxy for infected people. So take a look
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/coronavirus-maps-charts-states-testing-deaths



See the correlation with your stats?


For instance New York test 10 more people per capita than Alabama, but also has 20 more deaths per capita (https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/). Then you can say that AL test 2 more than NY per dead person.

As I said death is lagging proxy. About 2-4, perhaps. Therefore, NY, perhaps or even likely, test more than AL per infected but not a lot more. 100% not 10 less per infected as your highly misleading stat might have suggested for people who not good at stats and logic.

Hopefully, you understand what I mean. From Russia with Stats Explaining! 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

FWIW, studies done on voting behavior and the economy do show time and again that voters really only base their decisions on the economy as it exists during election year. How good or bad it was before that is not all that relevant.

Isn't it the perception of where economy is going (near election) day that matters?
Most economist think that economy will start to rebound in Q3
+ Trump's Job Approval of Economy is still solid (per RCP  
+ more voters trust Trump/GOP than Biden/Dems in H2H polls (as I remember)
+ good reception of TRUMP POPULIST BOOMER STIMULUS.

Obviously, a lot will change in 7 months. Obviously, predictions of economy rebounding in Q3 has huge uncertainty. We'll see.


I'm curious what voters will give Trump on economy in coming weeks, because true unemployment is already ~13% per Upshot/Wolfer estimation. What will voters that have already lost job give Trump?



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-rate-great-depression.html
The Unemployment Rate Is Probably Around 13 Percent
It’s almost certainly at its highest level since the Great Depression. Here’s how we estimated it.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Highest testing states:
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1245838887135481857
Lowest testing states:
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1245838564404998144

These stats is by the way fairly misleading, too.

As far as I know most states have similar policy — test only people with symptoms. So states with more infected people per capita will test more per capita. It should be very strong correlation there.

Death is very good (but lagging) proxy for infected people. So take a look
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/coronavirus-maps-charts-states-testing-deaths



See the correlation with your stats?


For instance New York test 10 more people per capita than Alabama, but also has 20 more deaths per capita (https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/). Then you can say that AL test 2 more than NY per dead person.

As I said death is lagging proxy. About 2-4, perhaps. Therefore, NY, perhaps or even likely, test more than AL per infected but not a lot more. 100% not 10 less per infected as your highly misleading stat might have suggested for people who not good at stats and logic.

Hopefully, you understand what I mean. From Russia with Stats Explaining! 

Except your entire "misleading" criticism is also misleading-- because the only way a "death" can be confirmed as due to COVID19 is from testing.

Don't test -- death not due to COVID19 = low deaths per capita.

Simple and obvious. If you have lower tests per capita you will also have lower deaths per capita. The only way to be sure is either to test broadly, or compare total mortality statistics compared to a normal baseline.

Ok. I've tried to explain and lost. If you really don't think, there is no very strong correlation between # of people seeking help with corona symptoms and # of testing, I give up.

By the way -- this criticism of my post is also misleading.

The data looks like it correlates, but actually doesn't.

One of the biggest food deserts is West Virginia/Eastern Kentucky -- but you see strong social distancing practices being put forward in those areas. West Virginia issued a statewide lockdown on March 24. Kentucky Gov. signed a similar order on March 25.

Therefore "Food Deserts" are no excuse.

I didn't say there is 100% correlation or that lock-downs didn't help...

The data looks like it correlates, but actually doesn't.
There is no correlation there?

 JFC. 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

WSJ: BREAKING NEWS The CDC is recommending Americans voluntarily wear nonmedical masks in public to limit coronavirus transmission, Trump says

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Data as of Apr. 4 at 4:41 a.m from https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/

Deaths, Raw

Deaths, Per Capita


All the states sorted by deaths per capita

Data as of Apr. 4 at 4:41 a.m   
State   Confirmed cases per 100k   Deaths per 100k   New deaths since Apr. 02            

Code:

New York	525	15	562	24%
Louisiana	221	8	60	19%
New Jer	337	7	109	20%
Michigan	128	5	62	15%
Washingt	96	4	24	9%
Connecti	137	4	19	17%
Massach	152	3	38	25%
Vermont	62	3	—	
Guam	53	3	—	
DC		111	2	3	25%
Colorado	75	2	31	39%
Georgia	58	2	35	21%
Mariana Is	15	2	—	
Illinois	69	2	47	29%
Indiana	52	2	24	31%
Delaware	47	1	2	17%
Nevada	53	1	5	13%
Rhode Isl	67	1	2	17%
Mississippi	45	<1	3	12%
Oklahoma	25	<1	4	12%
Wisconsin	35	<1	13	34%
Kentucky	19	<1	6	19%
Florida	50	<1	6	4%
Pennsy	67	<1	12	13%
Ohio		28	<1	10	12%
Alabama	32	<1	6	19%
Maryland	46	<1	7	19%
California	32	<1	40	17%
South Car	34	<1	3	10%
Maine	32	<1	—	
Kansas	22	<1	6	50%
Tennessee	46	<1	5	14%
Idaho	60	<1	1	11%
Arizona	28	<1	9	28%
Virginia	24	<1	5	12%
Missouri	35	<1	11	50%
Oregon	22	<1	1	5%
New Ham	40	<1	—	
Montana	25	<1	—	
New Mex	26	<1	4	67%
Puerto Ric	11	<1	3	25%
Alaska	21	<1	—	
Arkansas	25	<1	—	
North Dakota	23	<1	—	
Minnesota	14	<1	4	22%
Texas	22	<1	27	35%
Iowa	22	<1	—	
Nebraska	15	<1	—	
North Car	23	<1	8	38%
South Dak	22	<1	—	
Utah	41	<1	—	
Hawaii	22	<1	—	
West Virg	13	<1	—	
U.S. Virgi	36	0	—	
Wyoming	28	0	—	
Samoa	0	0	—	

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: testing.


I've said it many times, but US has more and better targeted (better Doctors?) testing that most Western Countries. If you don't believe me, listen to Nate Silver >>>

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1246454777736843269


"Our testing is better than much of Europe, and we're picking up a higher share of infections than they are."

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: Food Deserts and haha, Trump's base will die.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1246201843375648771


Location Data Says It All: Staying at Home During Coronavirus Is a Luxury

As I said, some people don't have a choice.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

 It's not just toilet paper and eggs, though. People are also panic buying surgical masks and rubbing alcohol. Things that are useful to help protect oneself from COVID. I have had to go grocery shopping without a mask more than once since the lockdown began because I simply did not have any on hand, and I am quite aware that I put myself (and consequently my elderly mother) at risk by doing so.

     As for the healthcare side, I am guessing that Del Tachi is referring to the strain on hospitals and not the actual immediate fact of people dying. I could be mistaken, however.

I might very well be totally wrong, but my understanding is that masks don't help you protecting yourself, unless you know how to use them, change them often etc. May be marginally.  But they help you to protect others if you are infected.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Castiglione d'Adda was one of the earliest and hardest hit towns in Northern Italy.  There was a report that 70% of people who showed up to donate blood last week had antibodies, so that town may have herd immunity now if that is verified.  But, crucially, they have already lost about 2% of their total 2017 population to coronavirus.  Many other people there are still very sick and at risk of dying from it.  That's what any jurisdiction that goes for herd immunity is risking.

It there more data about Castiglione? In Kirkland's nursing home ~50% died. With other words, if a nursing homes with 100 people in Castiglione would get infected, it'd be enough to get 2% of whole population. 5k town can become anecdotal evidence. Italy has also 4-6 times less ventilators per capita then US I think.

The bad news is that recent news show that Western World keep failing protecting places like nursing homes, so we can, indeed, follow Castiglione...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

What the CDC and most of the public health establishment was saying up until yesterday was that there is no reason to wear a mask unless you are sick.  That would imply that if you aren't sick then you can't spread the virus.

They were only saying that because there was (is) a huge shortage of proper masks (both N95s and surgical masks) and they made a judgment that it was better (not good, but less bad) to lie and tell people that they didn't need masks and that masks don't do anything in the hopes that it would make it easier to get more masks into the hands of health care providers. And also, it was easier to communicate than it was to spell out the differences between different types of masks and the varying effectiveness of them in different settings, which doesn't fit so easily into a simple soundbite and which people would have a hard time understanding. Moreover, at the time they said that you didn't need to wear a mask or be particularly worried on the individual level, that *was* true. On an individual level, current risk *was* low (and in most parts of the country, current individual risk is quite low even now!

This was a bad judgment IMO, but it is not hard to see why they made it. It is not that they didn't know that asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic people could spread the virus.

I don't believe, they knew, but lied. You can't cover up lies like that. I believe that they really underestimated the transmission rate of pre/a symptotical cases. As far as I know WHO and ECDC made similar assumptions and gave similar recommendations as CDC.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Castiglione d'Adda was one of the earliest and hardest hit towns in Northern Italy.  There was a report that 70% of people who showed up to donate blood last week had antibodies, so that town may have herd immunity now if that is verified.  But, crucially, they have already lost about 2% of their total 2017 population to coronavirus.  Many other people there are still very sick and at risk of dying from it.  That's what any jurisdiction that goes for herd immunity is risking.

It there more data about Castiglione? In Kirkland's nursing home ~50% died. With other words, if a nursing homes with 100 people in Castiglione would get infected, it'd be enough to get 2% of whole population. 5k town can become anecdotal evidence. Italy has also 4-6 times less ventilators per capita then US I think.

The bad news is that recent news show that Western World keep failing protecting places like nursing homes, so we can, indeed, follow Castiglione...

That I don't know.

If it turns out to be Italy's version of The Villages, that would be somewhat reassuring.  If it's a college town, that would be terrifying. 

https://www.citypopulation.de/en/italy/lombardia/lodi/098014__castiglione_dadda/


That comes out to 23.4% age 65+ in Castiglione d'Adda.

By comparison, in Italy as a whole, "In 2020, 23.1 percent of the Italian inhabitants were estimated to be aged 65 years and older."

https://www.statista.com/statistics/569201/population-distribution-by-age-group-in-italy/

So looks like it is fairly representative in terms of age of Italy as a whole.

I wasn't talking about demographics of town, but demographics of first deaths. One thing if it happened in "regular" basis, the opposite is that outbreak happened in unprepared nursing homes or hospitals. As I said in Kirkland 50% died.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

What can we do in the period of 30 days to 60 days that can bolster our position relative to the virus?

1. Rapid and antibody testing (They exist, they need to be mass produced)
2. Mass Production of supplies, ventilators and so forth.
3. Therapies

 Everything you want done takes massive government coordination with the public and private sector, organization and a huge labor force(that you also have to protect form getting sick), and competence to plan and direct all these actions. Good luck with that from this administration.

 Red avatars were also calling for some of these measures weeks ago.

It already happens. I think it is fairly likely that US will be one of few nations that will succeed in testing/vaccine/ventilators. Thanks to Big Farma and Tobacco! You don't think so?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere
Abbott Launches 5-Minute Virus Test for Use Almost Anywhere

Abbott Laboratories is unveiling a coronavirus test that can tell if someone is infected in as little as five minutes, and is so small and portable it can be used in almost any health-care setting.

The medical-device maker plans to supply 50,000 tests a day starting April 1, said John Frels, vice president of research and development at Abbott Diagnostics. The molecular test looks for fragments of the coronavirus genome, which can quickly be detected when present at high levels. A thorough search to definitively rule out an infection can take up to 13 minutes, he said.

https://www.ft.com/content/15834a3a-9efb-48ba-a426-45919ee37b45
US companies launch rapid antibody test
Point-of-care examination set to detect evidence of virus in as little as 15 minutes

Two US companies have launched a rapid antibody test for the coronavirus, which can be used to detect if a person’s immune system has Covid-19 or has recovered from it.

BD, a large medical technology company, and BioMedomics, a North Carolina-based clinical diagnostics company, announced a new point-of-care test that can detect evidence of past or present exposure to the virus in as little as 15 minutes.

The so-called serological tests are important because they could be used to assess who may be immune and can therefore be allowed to leave lockdown to return to normal life — or to help others, in the case of healthcare workers.

Public health officials can also use them to track the spread of the disease. But they are less accurate for diagnosis and cannot detect the disease in the earlier stages. 

https://www.ft.com/content/e3737752-6147-4c0e-82f2-e7df9eb9f6f8
BAT joins race to develop Covid-19 vaccine
Cigarette maker’s biotech unit tests potential antigen in genetically engineered tobacco plants

British American Tobacco, the maker of Lucky Strike and Camel cigarettes, has entered the fray of companies trying to develop a vaccine against Covid-19 — by growing a potential antigen in genetically engineered tobacco plants. 

The tobacco group on Wednesday said its US biotech subsidiary Kentucky BioProcessing was using “proprietary, fast-growing tobacco plant technology” in pre-clinical testing on animals, making it one of dozens of companies and public sector organisations worldwide racing to develop a vaccine.

BAT hopes to produce up to 3m doses a week from June to begin clinical testing. 

Ford Motor and GE promise to produce 50k ventilators by June.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1246509718249656320
Nate Silver agrees with me RE: misleading stats


"differences aren't actually that big and may largely be explained by other variables (e.g. urbanization)."


538 posted an article (which I didn't read yet) about case counts

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/
Coronavirus Case Counts Are Meaningless*
*Unless you know something about testing. And even then, it gets complicated.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I wasn't talking about demographics of town, but demographics of first deaths. One thing if it happened in "regular" basis, the opposite is that outbreak happened in unprepared nursing homes or hospitals. As I said in Kirkland 50% died.

Kirkland Washingon has 90,000 people. 50% of the population there did not die. 50% of the confirmed cases there died, I would assume that is what you mean.

But Skill and Chance said that 2% of the entire *population* in Castiglione died.

2% of the population of Kirkland WA dying would be 1,800 deaths.

Which (God forbid) would be entirely consistent with 50% of the people in a single nursing home dying.

I mean 50% died in Kirkland nursing home. The one that was hit first.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

(snip)

Current death rate in the United States is pushing 3%. Far far far deadlier than the common flu. Please do not wrap yourself up in disinformation, or at least at the minimum do not spread it to others. Practice social distancing, not factual distancing.

Best line of the thread.  This should be on T-shirts.

If it is 3% in US, what is it in Italy/Spain/France then? 10%?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

(snip)

Current death rate in the United States is pushing 3%. Far far far deadlier than the common flu. Please do not wrap yourself up in disinformation, or at least at the minimum do not spread it to others. Practice social distancing, not factual distancing.

Best line of the thread.  This should be on T-shirts.

If it is 3% in US, what is it in Italy/Spain/France then? 10%?

No. Closer to 5%. And those are very elderly populations.

How did you guys calculate 3% for US and just 5% for the Italy/Spain/France?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: haha Trump's base is going to die.

https://twitter.com/TrevonDLogan/status/1246553898577518593


As I said old poor will be overreprested.

First wave is urban >>> old poor = skewed blacks (and latinos? overcrowded homes?)
Second wave is rural >>> old poor  = skewed whites

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1246547983581286403


A taste of what could happen, if Hillary won. Reducing of flights from China likely would be considered xenophobic and US would have gotten (ten?) thousands of additional imported cases. A 1,000 new cases become a 1,000,000 in a month under the assumption that doubling rate time is ~3 days.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Truly, Mr. Trump and his Republicans have made America First!

If you think, it is fair to compare Spain (47mln) and US (327 mln), you should also think it's fair to compare NY (20 mln) and Kansas (3 mln). Kidding, I know, it's bad-faith from ya.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Truly, Mr. Trump and his Republicans have made America First!

If you think, it is fair to compare Spain (47mln) and US (327 mln), you should also think it's fair to compare NY (20 mln) and Kansas (3 mln). Kidding, I know, it's bad-faith from ya.

I think irony has just died

Cool story, bro. You think Ghosts interpretation of data is fair and is not of bad-faith nature?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/

Data as of Apr. 5 at 3:01 a.m. Published March 27, 2020



New Jersey +31% deaths and now is 2nd by deaths per capita.


Totals Updated April 5, 2020, 9:10 AM E.T.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

We still would have had hundreds, maybe thousands of deaths.

So top 5 populous European Countries have already almost 50k deaths, but you really think that with Hillary US "would have had hundreds, maybe thousands of deaths"? You can't be serious.


I agree, though, that Pr. Hillary would never got as good Economical Stimulus as Trump did, because evil GOP would push against it. Frankly, I don't think that Pr. Cruz or even Pr. Rubio would have managed this, either, but likely they'd get more than Hillary. Luckily, (R) Populist Trump won.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1246547983581286403
A taste of what could happen, if Hillary won. Reducing of flights from China likely would be considered xenophobic and US would have gotten (ten?) thousands of additional imported cases. A 1,000 new cases become a 1,000,000 in a month under the assumption that doubling rate time is ~3 days.

Probably the only thing he got right. That was not enough, as the data shows. The closing of travel to Europe was bungled since people rushed back to the states and airports in cities like New York and Chicago were absolutely crushed by people returning from Europe. Perfect place for the virus to spread into multiple other communities across the US. Looking at the places that are most affected, I would say more cases came from Europe rather than China.

And I won't even go into the testing failure.......that is the main reason why the US is in the predicament it is in.

Obviously, it wasn't enough. Had he gotten credit for that, then, perhaps, he would ban Europe sooner as well. As late as it was, it was controversial according to MSM and Dems, even though Europe followed it in a week or so. In the beginning, it was undoubtfully most effective measure, and Democrats should press Trump to do it EARLIER and MORE, not LATER and LESS. Trump should have restricted flights between states. Really stupid.

Testing? How's that Trump's fault? My understanding that CDC did as they usually do and tried to make their own test instead of relying on WHO and was too late to let private firms start it. It't not like it was Trump's idea or that he ordered them not to. Trump followed CDC's expertise (https://www.cdc.gov/about/leadership.htm), didn't he? You think that Hillary would press the experts of CDC to go private? Perhaps, she could, but I doubt it'd be significant diff.

Lock-downs and social distancing as Brittain33 suggested? Sure, Trump should've been quicker, but per NyT https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage




84% reduction travel distance in Counties with stay-at- home orders by March 27
vs
67% reduction travel distance in Counties without stay-at-home orders by March 27

But as you see, those without stay-at-home orders are often little rural counties, that is Food Desert effect kicks in.


It is per Nate Silver

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1245743315938574340
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1246509718249656320

IMO, plain simple fear made a big diff, too. If you leave in NYC, you don't need an order to stay home. Fear will make you.