New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems in disarray is real.

[Pericles]

The needle thinks Sanders wins by about 2-3 points. That would be a good result for Bernie and set him up well going forward. It could be a slight overperformance by Buttigieg. However, Buttigieg probably needed an outright win to have a real shot at the nomination (though maybe if nobody wins a majority on the first convention ballot and he already has a significant amount of delegates, he might be able to win it on a later ballot-this basic scenario is still unlikely though).

[jman123]

Is Joe Biden done for? His numbers are atrocious

Nope....its part of Bidens 4,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5, plan

If he can just make it to June 2nd, New Jersey is really gonna turn things around for him.

At this rate would Biden even be on the NJ ballot?

[Gass3268]

The needle thinks Sanders wins by about 2-3 points. That would be a good result for Bernie and set him up well going forward. It could be a slight overperformance by Buttigieg. However, Buttigieg probably needed an outright win to have a real shot at the nomination (though maybe if nobody wins a majority on the first convention ballot and he already has a significant amount of delegates, he might be able to win it on a later ballot-this basic scenario is still unlikely though).

I mean a win is a win, but a 2 point win would be embarrassing.

[Brittain33]

Is Joe Biden done for? His numbers are atrocious

No, but he could become the Jesse Jackson of the race.  He basically wins the black vote.  If so, he stays in and becomes influential at the convention.

That is a remarkable take.

[SN2903]

Bernie only up 4% 42.4% in

[Dorko Julio]

Is Joe Biden done for? His numbers are atrocious

Nope....its part of Bidens 4,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5, plan

If he can just make it to June 2nd, New Jersey is really gonna turn things around for him.

At this rate would Biden even be on the NJ ballot?

Good point. Probably not.

Looks like the Virgin Islands will have to be his new firewall.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1227409848205217793

Turnouts gonna be high folks.

[Walmart_shopper]

With nearly 40% reporting, DDHQ now sees less than a 1 pt lead between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.

Because I live in the Middle East Minnesota Nice strikes me as sociopathic and odd and hot dish strikes me as inedible gruel. But let me just say that Amy is a far, far more sensible candidate than Buttigieg.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Buttigieg looks like he's gunning for a 1-2-3-4 strategy before Super Tuesday

[Adam Griffin]

Just tuning in. With Warren and Biden tanking I think it's safe to declare Sanders the solid frontrunner at this point, no matter what his margin of victory is tonight.

Biden is done.

Warren is done.

The "moderate" vote is going to be so split going forward now, I think the path easily gets cleared for Sanders.

Where is Bernie going to inrease his vote share?  Iowa and NH should have been some of his best states.  A heavily white, liberal electorate.  Its not going up from here for him.  The field is totally muddled.

As you yourself pointed out, Sanders' coalition isn't what it was in 2016. He is more reliant on people of color and educated people, and less so on rural white voters. As such - by your own previous argument - this isn't the concern it would have been in 2016.

[Gass3268]

Steyer Out. Lifeline out there for Biden.

https://twitter.com/abbyfridmannTV/status/1227407255303327747?s=20

[n1240]

Noticed that the model that the needle is based on is double counting votes that are already counted.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Just tuning in. With Warren and Biden tanking I think it's safe to declare Sanders the solid frontrunner at this point, no matter what his margin of victory is tonight.

Biden is done.

Warren is done.

The "moderate" vote is going to be so split going forward now, I think the path easily gets cleared for Sanders.

Where is Bernie going to inrease his vote share?  Iowa and NH should have been some of his best states.  A heavily white, liberal electorate.  Its not going up from here for him.  The field is totally muddled.

His national polls have shown hispanics and urban areas as being more friendly to him than working class whites. A flip of his 2016 coalition

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/abbyfridmannTV/status/1227407255303327747

THIS IS BIG, BIG, BIG !!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Florida Man for Crime]

Is Joe Biden done for? His numbers are atrocious

Neither Biden nor Warren are going to be viable. Biden can still put up a fight in SC and perhaps NV, but it is hard to see where Warren really goes from here.

[cvparty]

this is probably gonna be closer than people expect. a lot of towns in the southeast still have yet to report, and most of manchester/nashua are in

[Lumine]

What

Steyer? Really?

[Tender Branson]

44% in:

27.1% Bernie
23.1% Pete
19.6% Amy

Turnout now projected down to 286.000

[cvparty]

https://twitter.com/abbyfridmannTV/status/1227407255303327747

THIS IS BIG, BIG, BIG !!!!!!!!!!!!!

PRAISE THE GODS

[The Free North]

Steyer Out. Lifeline out there for Biden.

https://twitter.com/abbyfridmannTV/status/1227407255303327747?s=20

PRAISE THE LORD TOM IS GONE!

[jimrtex]

If Klobuchar nips Buttigieg in one of the CD's it could give the overall delegate win to Sanders.

The two CD's will each give 3 delegates to first and second, two to third.
Pledged LEO's will divide 1 each for top 3.
The AL will go 2 delegates to first and second, one to third.

If Buttgieg or Klobuchar finish second in both CD's, and therefore second state wide, it will be

Sanders 9
Second 9
Third 6

If Buttigieg and Klobuchar split the CD's, the statewide second will

Sanders 9
Second statewide 8
Third statewide 7

I'm assuming that Sanders will finish 1st in both CD's.

[indietraveler]

Just tuning in. With Warren and Biden tanking I think it's safe to declare Sanders the solid frontrunner at this point, no matter what his margin of victory is tonight.

Biden is done.

Warren is done.

The "moderate" vote is going to be so split going forward now, I think the path easily gets cleared for Sanders.

Where is Bernie going to inrease his vote share?  Iowa and NH should have been some of his best states.  A heavily white, liberal electorate.  Its not going up from here for him.  The field is totally muddled.

It doesn't have to go up a ton for him to win with the field being so split.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Steyer Out. Lifeline out there for Biden.

https://twitter.com/abbyfridmannTV/status/1227407255303327747?s=20

Whoa...

[Pericles]

Buttigieg looks like he's gunning for a 1-2-3-4 strategy before Super Tuesday

If that's the case, him losing the popular vote in Iowa would get raised to discount the 1 and after SC people would point out he hasn't gotten the most votes in any contest.