New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Nashua ward 3 results on CNN

Bernie wins with 590 votes, didn't get the others before they cut away from it, but it was a clear Bernie lead, 2nd place had like 400.

So similar to Manchester.

How is that even happening? Bernie is doing so poorly among the poorer white working class that was critical to him in 2016 but doing quite well among the super-progressive wealthier electorate. It's bizarre. Iowa was like that, too. Maybe he's just leaning really heavily into the youth vote, but the dynamics are so different this year. His base is far more Warren-esque than we thought, and far less Biden-y.

For one thing, Nashua has the most Hispanics of basically anywhere in NH. Which is not much of course, but helps to pad his margins a bit.

[NOVA Green]

Wow--- new vote dump from Nashua and Bernie leads Pete by 4%...

[junior chįmp]

After 5 decades in politics....Biden STILL hasn't wont a primary/caucus

Sad stuff folks

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bernie has totally lost the coalition of voters that supposedly made him strong against Trump, working class/rural whites.  This campaign is turning into Hillary 2016 but with less enthusiasm and infrastructure among the establishment.  Disaster.

Its indeed looking like the Corbyn coalition. I still think Bernie received lot of anti-Clinton vote in 2016, as Clinton did in 2008 where she got the anti-Obama vote which was also mainly rural. And these voters now abondon them.

Yes, it seems like rural areas are just anti-Democratic frontrunner rather than pro- whatever candidate they are voting for. Anyone pretending like Buttigieg would do noticeably better in rural areas than any other Democrat in a general election based on primary voting patterns is kidding themselves

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Bennet is dropping out - CNN

We hardly knew ye!

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/mollyhc/status/1227402560966926336

Remember that Warren endorsed Hillary Clinton despite being closer ideologically to Sanders. Does she now endorse another Liberal woman in Amy Klobuchar? What a big deal that would be if Warren does drop out.

People can't remember what didn't happen. She remained neutral during the primaries & only endorsed Hillary when she'd already won the nomination.

[Lourdes]

All I remember about Bennet is that he sounded like the teacher in South Park who says "mmmkay"

[Dorko Julio]

https://twitter.com/mollyhc/status/1227402560966926336

Dropout imminent? That's a pretty weird tweet from Warren.

It kinda sounded like a dropout speech to me, but apparently she's moving forward.

It would be HUGE if Warren endorsed Amy though. If that happened, she'd instantly become one of the favorites against Sanders.

It would definitely shake up the race and be really interesting if she did.

[Horsemask]

After 5 decades in politics....Biden STILL hasn't wont a primary/caucus

Sad stuff folks

5 decades and 3 presidential runs in 3 different decades

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

After 5 decades in politics....Biden STILL hasn't wont a primary/caucus

Sad stuff folks

He and Warren aren't even winning a town yet even though Bloomberg managed to win one.

[atheist4thecause]

Buttigieg seems to have separated enough from Klobuchar that the Top 3 candidates probably won't change. You never know for sure, but Buttigieg really ran it up on Klobuchar in the last 10'ish percent.

[MT Treasurer]

Nashua ward 3 results on CNN

Bernie wins with 590 votes, didn't get the others before they cut away from it, but it was a clear Bernie lead, 2nd place had like 400.

So similar to Manchester.

How is that even happening? Bernie is doing so poorly among the poorer white working class that was critical to him in 2016 but doing quite well among the super-progressive wealthier electorate. It's bizarre. Iowa was like that, too. Maybe he's just leaning really heavily into the youth vote, but the dynamics are so different this year. His base is far more Warren-esque than we thought, and far less Biden-y.

Well, Trends Are Real

[atheist4thecause]

Michael Bennet officially out.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/mollyhc/status/1227402560966926336

Dropout imminent? That's a pretty weird tweet from Warren.

It kinda sounded like a dropout speech to me, but apparently she's moving forward.

It would be HUGE if Warren endorsed Amy though. If that happened, she'd instantly become one of the favorites against Sanders.

LOL

[musicblind]

Why does the NYT's forecast needle keep dropping for Sanders when his lead is holding?

It just fell to a 58% chance of winning the state. It was at 70%.

What gives?

[Dorko Julio]

After 5 decades in politics....Biden STILL hasn't wont a primary/caucus

Sad stuff folks

He really is terrible at this, isn't he?

How much of an advantage does he need to start with to win something?

[NOVA Green]

Nashua ward 3 results on CNN

Bernie wins with 590 votes, didn't get the others before they cut away from it, but it was a clear Bernie lead, 2nd place had like 400.

So similar to Manchester.

How is that even happening? Bernie is doing so poorly among the poorer white working class that was critical to him in 2016 but doing quite well among the super-progressive wealthier electorate. It's bizarre. Iowa was like that, too. Maybe he's just leaning really heavily into the youth vote, but the dynamics are so different this year. His base is far more Warren-esque than we thought, and far less Biden-y.

For one thing, Nashua has the most Hispanics of basically anywhere in NH. Which is not much of course, but helps to pad his margins a bit.

Totally slipped under my radar... Puerto Ricans strike again!

Where is Arch when we need him?   


https://www.nhpr.org/post/after-maria-displaced-puerto-ricans-start-call-nh-home#stream/0

[The Free North]

I'll tell you one thing guys: its going to be a really fun month or two if you're a neutral. This has the potential to be one of the strangest primaries we've seen in forever.

[Walmart_shopper]

Bernie has totally lost the coalition of voters that supposedly made him strong against Trump, working class/rural whites.  This campaign is turning into Hillary 2016 but with less enthusiasm and infrastructure among the establishment.  Disaster.

Its indeed looking like the Corbyn coalition. I still think received lot of anti-Clinton vote in 2016, as Clinton did in 2008 where she got the anti-Obama vote which was also mainly rural

Yeah, I never liked the Corbyn comparison, especially since Americans and Democrats don't have the albatross of Brexit around their necks, but it certainly does feel a lot like Corbyn. You simply cannot win when you alienate working class whites AND suburban women. Warren would at least nail down one of those groups.

On the other hand, if Bernie's Hispanic support is really as strong as it may very well be, that's something, too. It would be amazing if Bernie ended up being more competitive in Texas and Arizona than Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

[Brittain33]

Why does the NYT's forecast monitor keep dropping for Sanders when his lead is holding?

It just fell to a 58% chance of winning the state. It was at 70%.

What gives?

Old data

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

What are the odds the Culinary Union endorses Klobuchar days before the Nevada Caucus now?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Kamala Harris currently has 14 votes in NH. I still believe she would be the best nominee and president our party could offer up this year, and I hope someday I can say President Harris.

[Dorko Julio]

I'll tell you one thing guys: its going to be a really fun month or two if you're a neutral. This has the potential to be one of the strangest primaries we've seen in forever.

I'm lovin' it!

[indietraveler]

Just tuning in. With Warren and Biden tanking I think it's safe to declare Sanders the solid frontrunner at this point, no matter what his margin of victory is tonight.

Biden is done.

Warren is done.

The "moderate" vote is going to be so split going forward now, I think the path easily gets cleared for Sanders.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What are the odds the Culinary Union endorses Klobuchar days before the Nevada Caucus now?

I could definitely see that happening, since Biden seems kaput.