2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[Gass3268]

Eid proposes an all-around better map, though I personally never like Ottawa-Grand Rapids.

Seems to be a vocal contingent in the committee that is not a fan of this map, which is concerning. Saying that Eid's map doesn't respect the Bangladeshi COI.

[Gass3268]

This is a very fair map.  Im surprised the Democrat members allowed something so fair to be released.

Everything they say or do is public and available on YouTube.

[Nyvin]

Eid proposes an all-around better map, though I personally never like Ottawa-Grand Rapids.

This is a much better map.   I think even Republicans would like the 6, 7, 8 configuration better really.

[GALeftist]

Eid proposes an all-around better map, though I personally never like Ottawa-Grand Rapids.

What's the partisan breakdown of this map? I'm pretty sure that would be 8-5 Biden-Trump in 2020; would it be 8-5 Trump-Clinton in 2016?

[Oryxslayer]

Eid proposes an all-around better map, though I personally never like Ottawa-Grand Rapids.

What's the partisan breakdown of this map? I'm pretty sure that would be 8-5 Biden-Trump in 2020; would it be 8-5 Trump-Clinton in 2016?

Dems win the two Detroit seats and the Ann Arbor seat obviously, his version of 9 appears concise and safe, others have already shown that this mid-cities seat goes blue, 4 should be tight and marginal Biden just looking at numbers, and I ran the dra on 3 and its essentially a tie, I think with Biden up.

So 6-1-6, but the Macomb seat lacks some of the very red areas so that seat is probably marginal, along with 6. So more 4-2-1-2-4 between safe/competitive seats for either party.

Trump definitely won 3 and 4 in 2016 here, so 5-8 for the topline under that election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Eid proposes an all-around better map, though I personally never like Ottawa-Grand Rapids.

Seems to be a vocal contingent in the committee that is not a fan of this map, which is concerning. Saying that Eid's map doesn't respect the Bangladeshi COI.

What is even the "Bangladeshi CoI"?

[Oryxslayer]

Eid proposes an all-around better map, though I personally never like Ottawa-Grand Rapids.

Seems to be a vocal contingent in the committee that is not a fan of this map, which is concerning. Saying that Eid's map doesn't respect the Bangladeshi COI.

What is even the "Bangladeshi CoI"?

A seat winnable by Tlaib that gets Muslins from the Dearborns, Hamtramck, and a few suburbs to their west all together.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Eid proposes an all-around better map, though I personally never like Ottawa-Grand Rapids.

Seems to be a vocal contingent in the committee that is not a fan of this map, which is concerning. Saying that Eid's map doesn't respect the Bangladeshi COI.

What is even the "Bangladeshi CoI"?

A seat winnable by Tlaib that gets Muslins from the Dearborns, Hamtramck, and a few suburbs to their west all together.

I see.
How likely is it we see Debbie Dingell and Tliab forced into a primary?

[lfromnj]

Wait the commission is actually worried about VRA stuff outside of Wayne and Oakland and Macomb lol.

[Nyvin]

So the four proposals that the commission released yesterday all look like total nightmares

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/michigan/first_proposal/

Map 4 isn't even contiguous, I don't know why they even put that out.

The other three might as well have been drawn by the Republican legislature (especially the first).  

They all pack Ann Arbor with the Detroit suburbs, put Levin in an unwinnable seat, most likely doom Kildee (although that's expected anyway), and give all the R incumbents safe seats (even Upton) except Meijer, whose in the Grand Rapids district.

The median seat in all three workable maps is at least R+5.3, where Biden won the state by 2.78%.  

If they pass the first map, Michigan could very well end up with a 9R-4D delegation in 2023.

Why are the worst maps of this cycle coming from two Ind Commission states (Michigan and Colorado)?

[ProgressiveModerate]

So the four proposals that the commission released yesterday all look like total nightmares

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/michigan/first_proposal/

Map 4 isn't even contiguous, I don't know why they even put that out.

The other three might as well have been drawn by the Republican legislature (especially the first).  

They all pack Ann Arbor with the Detroit suburbs, put Levin in an unwinnable seat, most likely doom Kildee (although that's expected anyway), and give all the R incumbents safe seats (even Upton) except Meijer, whose in the Grand Rapids district.

The median seat in all three workable maps is at least R+5.3, where Biden won the state by 2.78%.  

If they pass the first map, Michigan could very well end up with a 9R-4D delegation in 2023.

Why are the worst maps of this cycle coming from two Ind Commission states (Michigan and Colorado)?

Honestly map 4 wouldn't be too bad if it weren't for the fact it weren't contiguous. I feel like technically from a COI standpoint Ann-Arbor fits better with white Detroit burbs but from a partisanship standpoint, "unpacking" the Detroit metro is the right thing to do.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Map 4 is the least bad.

[Sol]

I don't think those maps are really too bad? There are other ways to make it more competitive of course--and like a lot of commission maps this cycle they're all sort of untidy--but tbh those maps aren't totally nonsensical wrt:CoI.

Actually I'd argue that the 4th is the worst, not just because of the noncontiguity but also because tbh imo Muskegon+GR is a Dem gerrymander. Kent and Ottawa are the most obvious county combo in existence.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Map 3 seems the best by all accounts. I understand why it'd be frustrating for Democrats, but Michigan's political geography is just not great for them in the state and has become worse since 2016. Map 3 is fairly compact and preserves COIs (in fact it unpacks the Detroit area somewhat).

Map 1 is an obvious R gerrymander (splitting Flint and Saginaw is pure trolling), and Map 4 is non-contiguous so I'm not even sure how they released it. Maps 2 and 3 are acceptable, though hopefully some shifts can be made to shore up Dems further while respecting COIs.

[Virginiá]

Map 3 seems the best by all accounts. I understand why it'd be frustrating for Democrats, but Michigan's political geography is just not great for them in the state and has become worse since 2016. Map 3 is fairly compact and preserves COIs (in fact it unpacks the Detroit area somewhat).

Map 1 is an obvious R gerrymander (splitting Flint and Saginaw is pure trolling), and Map 4 is non-contiguous so I'm not even sure how they released it. Maps 2 and 3 are acceptable, though hopefully some shifts can be made to shore up Dems further while respecting COIs.

Maps are likely going to have to be adjusted anyway. Partisan fairness has a higher priority than compactness and splits in the criteria.

[lfromnj]

Map 3 seems the best by all accounts. I understand why it'd be frustrating for Democrats, but Michigan's political geography is just not great for them in the state and has become worse since 2016. Map 3 is fairly compact and preserves COIs (in fact it unpacks the Detroit area somewhat).

Map 1 is an obvious R gerrymander (splitting Flint and Saginaw is pure trolling), and Map 4 is non-contiguous so I'm not even sure how they released it. Maps 2 and 3 are acceptable, though hopefully some shifts can be made to shore up Dems further while respecting COIs.

The first map was just a draft plan they drew up and ran out of space.

[Gass3268]

They are discussing right now combining Grand Rapids with either Kalamazoo or Muskegon in the Congressional map.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1443279923477684230?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

They are discussing right now combining Grand Rapids with either Kalamazoo or Muskegon in the Congressional map.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1443279923477684230?s=20

I personally always like the "lakeshore" version of 9 (CD02) in this proposal, mainly cause Ottawa is so culturally distinct from Grand Rapids, despite their commuter ties. Not sure about the rest, there are more compact ways to do the Kent County Seat and make it swing.

[Skill and Chance]

The same Obama era status quo bias that helped Republicans in CO and will likely help them in VA should help Democrats in MI. There's going to be a lot of pressure for Dems to have a majority of the delegation.  You could see a similar thing in court in PA.

[Stuart98]

Prefer Grand Rapids-Muskegon to Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo should go in a district with Battle Creek.

Fair map:


Pres 2020:

[Adam Griffin]

I don't know le Michigan but I played around and came up with this. It could be anywhere from 9-4 D & 9-4 R depending on candidates/climate.

Stabenow won 7, Biden won 8, Whitmer won 9 (almost 10; CD-9), and Trump ('16) won 9 (almost 10; CD-7).

[Stuart98]

Looks like you've only got one black VRA district, which is illegal.

[It’s so Joever]

They are discussing right now combining Grand Rapids with either Kalamazoo or Muskegon in the Congressional map.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1443279923477684230?s=20

Based?

[😥]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1443606945236148225?s=19

[Antonio the Sixth]

WTF, they went back to the drawing board in Detroit and made the Dem packing worse??