2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[Tekken_Guy]

Would the main partisan impact of this be taking the black majority areas out of SD-11 and SD-12?  I can't really see anything else on the map that would change in any meaningful way. 

They can make either SD-1 or SD-2 closer to black majority at the expense of the other, but that doesn't really change either away from Safe D (not even close really).

No, the black areas are very small portions of SD-11 and SD-12. It’s likely they touch districts like 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10 more, all of which have large black areas yet none are black majority.

[Nyvin]

Would the main partisan impact of this be taking the black majority areas out of SD-11 and SD-12?  I can't really see anything else on the map that would change in any meaningful way. 

They can make either SD-1 or SD-2 closer to black majority at the expense of the other, but that doesn't really change either away from Safe D (not even close really).

No, the black areas are very small portions of SD-11 and SD-12. It’s likely they touch districts like 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10 more, all of which have large black areas yet none are black majority.

I can't see any of the those districts in/around Detroit becoming competitive (even Likely D level) with any kind of changes. 

The most they could do is make a district in the southeastern part of Oakland County to make the remaining districts have larger black populations, but that new district would still have voted for Biden by around ~25%.

If they leave 11 and 12 alone, the overall partisan impact of striking down the map will be absolutely minimal.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting to see if this succeeds.

I really do not like the way the Commission tried to "unpack" black voters - however a very good handful of said seats failed in 2022. The commission argues it's what their VRA lawyers told them to do, but there def seemed to be some level of underlying partisan incentives.

The thing is in MI, you don't even have to excessively "unpack" black voters to make a partisan equitable map so that argument is weak as well. A lot of the map just "unpacks" black voters into already D-leaning suburbs.

Really hope these issues are fixed.

Yes, I think to be consistent with the principles laid out in the AL, LA, and now GA section 2 cases, the MI state senate map has to go.

Yeah especially the when it comes to the Senate districts. The thing to remember with this case is it effects the inner Detroit region, and therefore has nothing to do with partisanship. All the adjacent areas are varying hues of Blue. It instead has everything to do with the Dem Primary, and I would not be surprised if the commission's VRA analyst just didn't do that side of the equation. Because from a D v R perspective, all the districts they drew should function. But things in some of the seats don't work from a D v D primary RPV perspective.

I'm convinced the "VRA-lawyers" on the commission that had a heavy hand in the Detroit area had other motivations.

Overall I think the MI Commission was successful but having the same block of people doing all 3 maps lead to time crunches on the State House and State Senate maps leading to weird districts. Next time I would recommend there is just a separate slate of commissioners for each map that needs to be drawn.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/yeargain/status/1737964827824312446?t=8gjqgz_b-xUzxQHKhtEckg...

The inevitable outcome given primary outcomes.  Note, as stated here previously,  all districts listed are somewhere between Safe D and will remain reliability D after shifts given their geography. It's the primary demographics that matter.

The only part of this that doesn't make sense is the listing of the Inkster districts which are geographically separate from Detroit,  and not in a position to change without the Dearborn seats, that are not mentioned.

[Nyvin]

It'll be interesting to see how SD-11 is changed.  It seems they want that southern little chunk taken out of it to increase the black population in neighboring districts (probably 10?).  

It'll become more R no matter what (it's losing most of the black population), but by how much is the real question.   If they just expand it north it probably becomes borderline safe R, if it just swaps territory with 10 it might stay at around Lean R or so.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It'll be interesting to see how SD-11 is changed.  It seems they want that southern little chunk taken out of it to increase the black population in neighboring districts (probably 10?).  

It'll become more R no matter what (it's losing most of the black population), but by how much is the real question.   If they just expand it north it probably becomes borderline safe R, if it just swaps territory with 10 it might stay at around Lean R or so.

SD-11 especially matters given how narrow Dems 20-18 majority is, and how many of the other State Senate seats they hold are quite narrow. Furthermore, Dems honestly don't have all that much room for growth in the State Senate, with SD-09 and SD-30 being the only two realistic pickups - maybe an outside chance at SD-32.

[Oryxslayer]

Today the commission voted today 8 to 1 (2 abstain) to give their lawyers power to appeal, request stays, and generally try to fight against the suit.

Yesterday the two commissioners who resigned rather than potentially revisit their work were replaced with substitutes, 1 Dem 1 Rep.

Lower court has also solicited appeals to the plaintiffs and commission for a list of recommendations for a master and VRA experts to advise/guide the commission in corrective work.

https://twitter.com/DNBethLeBlanc/status/1743269262070849932?t=RTSsj1dk_ztbmsmsu...

In truth though, the commission doesn't have to do much work. On both plans they can just cut one of existing seats with large share of minority voters in Detroit, and that provides enough to bring every other seat well within the performance percentages. That cut seat is then reconstituted in the precincts dropped from the dropped precincts, almost entirely in inner Dem voting suburbs, meaning the initial partisan balance is not adjusted. As long as the commission stay by it's motives from last time, the changes similarly need not dramatically disrupt the partisan balance: some seats may get redder, but the dropping of Blue precincts from the innermost seats mean there is room to easily balance or maintain the existing partisan goals of the plans.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1744479812092068284

[Oryxslayer]

Supreme Court denies the appeal, no noted dissents. There will be a adjusted House map for 2024, and senate map for 2026.

Again, given the area in question, and the commissions seeming commitment to its previous goals, massive changes to overall chamber partisanship should not be a issue. Instead, it will be the creation of 1-2 White Dem seats to make the rest in the region reliably majority AA, and actually allow Detroit to be represented by more than a handful of her residents.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1752122946632786249?s=20

Commission activity on House maps. No images but here is the report from one of the advisory experts. Notable charts:







Immediate takeaways:

Map Daisy 2 is the only one that this expert recommends which the commission adopted as a potential place to build off. Which seems like a very loaded decision. Especially since Daisy 2 seems tailor made to respect the commissions previous intentions by maintaining the overall partisanship of the seats. Additionally, a large number of districts all seemingly are bunched up on the chart at like 55% BVAP, a number likely given by a expect and then targeted with care. All the maps with absurd BVAP districts that would qualify as packing, or not much change and seeming to maintain the cracking based on percentages got chucked.

Meanwhile this part of this experts advice seemed to be ignored since he was pushing for more compact lines, and noted Daisy 2  has continuity with the previous plan.

[Oryxslayer]

10 maps are submitted to the website for public comment. There are many maps up there, but these are the advanced ones:

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1753236619123888158?t=TVOfDHZ4S-VUMKa3ahVH_A&am...

Daisy 2 is very much the minimal change map which creating the necessary access seats. 

In fact, only it and Tulip seen to make an attempt to unpack Detroit into seats that are not going to run afoul of racial packing claims, but still are majority-minority and would satisfy the court order. Which to me suggests the commission already has their ideal design, they just have to put up more maps that are perhaps purposfully designed to fail.