2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[Sol]

What areas of Wayne besides Dearborn have the highest concentrations of Arab-Americans? 

IIRC there are fair few Yemenis in Hamtramck.

[Sol]

Here's a link to a possible map; too lazy rn to screenshot, my apologies

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1f84b5fd-62f4-4f75-8320-484b0288b314

[Sol]

I don't care for the Ann Arbor-Livingston thing either, but my hand was kind of forced by drawing two majority (not plurality) Black districts, which will probably be done by the commission since it's still possible. That means the Dingell district has to take more of Wayne, and that's too much to still include Ann Arbor. I'd be happy to hear your suggestions, but I didn't want to f[inks] up the balance I got in the other part of the state by drawing Ann Arbor into 6th or whatever.

 I'd be happy to see a recommendation which has two majority Black districts and does nicer things with Ann Arbor though

Here's a link to a possible map; too lazy rn to screenshot, my apologies

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1f84b5fd-62f4-4f75-8320-484b0288b314

GR should stay whole

Grand Rapids is whole..

[Sol]

Tbf Ann Arbor doesn't really go well anywhere, the closest county in a cultural term is probably Ingham which splits 2 metroes and is also a GOP gerrymander.

It does have a certain Detroit metro aspect to it though, no? That said the closest cultural companions to Ann Arbor are Ferndale and co., who aren't exactly easy to put in a Washtenaw district either...

[Sol]

Obviously violates the VRA but this is my non partisan map of the detroit metro that fits almost perfectly
Creates a nice downriver WWC+arab seat thats Clinton +4 but trending R. Lean D
Ann Arbor College town and upscale Wayne county suburbs. Clinton +25(Safe D)
Titanium D Clinton +90 Detroit seat.
Livingston + exurban oakland and Macomb(Trump +24) Safe R
Inner Oakland(Clinton +25) Safe D
Most of Macomb +7 Trump = lean to Likely R and trending right.

If you combine the Downriver and Detroit districts, what's the black population? Just wondering if there's a viable east-west split there that keeps them both as VRA districts.

The Black population in that yellow seat is essentially negligible outside of River Rouge, Ecorse, Inkster, and Romulus, and none of those are a huge percentage of the population. So yeah, I'd imagine it may even be majority white? The Oakland county district might actually be Blacker since it has Southfield and Pontiac.

[Sol]

Obviously violates the VRA but this is my non partisan map of the detroit metro that fits almost perfectly
Creates a nice downriver WWC+arab seat thats Clinton +4 but trending R. Lean D
Ann Arbor College town and upscale Wayne county suburbs. Clinton +25(Safe D)
Titanium D Clinton +90 Detroit seat.
Livingston + exurban oakland and Macomb(Trump +24) Safe R
Inner Oakland(Clinton +25) Safe D
Most of Macomb +7 Trump = lean to Likely R and trending right.

If you combine the Downriver and Detroit districts, what's the black population? Just wondering if there's a viable east-west split there that keeps them both as VRA districts.

The Black population in that yellow seat is essentially negligible outside of River Rouge, Ecorse, Inkster, and Romulus, and none of those are a huge percentage of the population. So yeah, I'd imagine it may even be majority white? The Oakland county district might actually be Blacker since it has Southfield and Pontiac.

sending both VRA seats into Oakland would be interesting.  But they can both be kept within Wayne, I think that's the best configuration

I just question to what extent one of two VRA seats which just stays in Wayne actually works as a performing seat. I'd be a little concerned about a legal challenge if the Black % in both seats isn't as high as reasonably possible; even under the current district Tlaib managed to win a primary in 2018 where she was not the Black candidate of choice IIRC.

As far as the Pointes go, I don't see anything wrong with putting them in a Black-majority seat.. They aren't exactly a great fit for working-class and increasingly diversifying Macomb either, and you avoid a county split.

[Sol]

Here's another shot at Michigan--IMO this is my favorite map I've made yet. Here's the DRA link.





The only town or township split is Clinton Charter Township, in Macomb County, which has such humongous municipalities that it makes not splitting something rather difficult.

MI-11 and MI-12 are both majority-Black.

Let me know if there any issues with the image displays.

[Sol]

That is a very nice map.  About the only thing I'd quibble with is the 8th's long western tail. 

Yeah, not my favorite. Though it's kind of forced if you want to put Battle Creek in with Kalamazoo. Forumites, are those two particularly connected?

[Sol]

How about this?



Still had to split Calhoun, but I do agree that the 8th is nicer when conciser.

[Sol]

Not VRA compliant.

[Sol]

Not VRA compliant.

Do I need to make a second AA seat in Detroit?

Bit of a bummer, I was surprised that Detroit could be fit into a nice, neat district. I suppose it can be rearranged without really changing the outcome of the map though.

What qualifies as VRA compliant? I was able to make both Detroit CDs around 45% black. Should I shoot for 50?



The east Detroit is now down to 50% Black and the West Wayne is now 42% Black. DRA has minority rating at 98.

You can definitely get over 50% pretty easily and compactly. It does require dipping into Southfield and Pontiac, and you do have to do a little careful work to avoid splitting municipalities, but it's very doable.

[Sol]

You have to draw two Black districts in Detroit, suck it up.

[Sol]

Tbh Livingston County isn't a good fit with either Lansing or Washtenaw--the obvious pairing for it is Western Oakland. That does force a Macomb-Oakland district, but also can allow for a fairly attractive Flint-Saginaw-Bay City-Midland seat which seems like a decent CoI.

[Sol]

I gotta say, the reluctance to put Southfield in a Detroit based district from some of y'all baffles me. Not so much from the folks who have been consistently on the record opposing VRA districts or obsessing about county contiguity, but moreso from people who will usually dismiss county considerations in favor a California-style CoI approach. Southfield is literally right there and is prime fodder for a thoughtful map's 2 VRA districts.

I actually do understand not wanting to go to Pontiac, but IMO it's not too different from going to Romulus, which will probably happen if you keep both seats in Wayne County.

[Sol]

You can't draw two Black majority districts in Wayne, at least not without getting really ugly and splitting municipalities (was just playing around with it myself) but I think it's possible to draw plurality Black districts there, which of course raises the whole thorny issue of what counts as performing, etc. etc.

What is possible actually is to draw two Black majority districts in Wayne which only go into Southfield and Easpointe (and Bingham Farms for population). It's not pretty IMO; it forces weird contortions, but here's the link.

[Sol]

Ultimately my view is is that the question of performing is a thorny one, but if you look at the effects of drawing a Black seat into Oakland it becomes a lot easier. As a consequence of that choice, a map drawer is thus able to draw a Livingston+Oakland seat, a Thumb-Detroit exurbia seat, and a Flint-Saginaw-Bay City-Midland seat, which are all excellent CoI and avoid ugly stuff like forcing Livingston in with Lansing.

It's not like a Pontiac-Detroit seat is even that hideous either--it's more compact and attractive than basically any other VRA seat outside of Chicago and Atlanta.

[Sol]

Ultimately my view is is that the question of performing is a thorny one, but if you look at the effects of drawing a Black seat into Oakland it becomes a lot easier. As a consequence of that choice, a map drawer is thus able to draw a Livingston+Oakland seat, a Thumb-Detroit exurbia seat, and a Flint-Saginaw-Bay City-Midland seat, which are all excellent CoI and avoid ugly stuff like forcing Livingston in with Lansing.

It's not like a Pontiac-Detroit seat is even that hideous either--it's more compact and attractive than basically any other VRA seat outside of Chicago and Atlanta.

MS?

Don't like the split of Metro Jackson.

[Sol]

I guess you will post your map in due course.

I drew one way upthread, though it has some flaws I'm working on now.

Here's another shot at Michigan--IMO this is my favorite map I've made yet. Here's the DRA link.





The only town or township split is Clinton Charter Township, in Macomb County, which has such humongous municipalities that it makes not splitting something rather difficult.

MI-11 and MI-12 are both majority-Black.

Let me know if there any issues with the image displays.

[Sol]

Ok, here's my counterproposal. Fairly similar to my earlier map, but with a more compact Detroit area. Not in love with the boundary between the 1st and 2nd but not sure of the best way to improve it.


Sorry for the absence of images, not able to screenshot presently.

[Sol]

Ok, here's my counterproposal. Fairly similar to my earlier map, but with a more compact Detroit area. Not in love with the boundary between the 1st and 2nd but not sure of the best way to improve it.


Sorry for the absence of images, not able to screenshot presently.

You probably should try to avoid a West to East MI district in central north. Trade between 1 and 2.

Yeah that makes sense. Doing a full on Traverse City-Holland district is pretty dang sensible, but I felt weird about putting the UP with the Huron shore--probably not justified, but it looks awfully odd.

Plus I think I was a bit tired after endlessly massaging the Detroit area seats to avoid municipal splits.

[Sol]

For that 7th, is it possible to swap St. Joseph County for bits of Calhoun outside Battle Creek?

I think so but it cuts a little tight.

[Sol]

Does this look better?

[Sol]

Does this look better?

i’m curious, how would you draw a map without the second VRA district going north of southfield?

not sure yet, but have been playing with this.

[Sol]

Gotta say, I'm not a big fan of tossing Midland and Bay City into a district with the UP. Ideally they'd go with Saginaw since they seem to be a common region, but I understand that isn't always feasible. A little more questionable to me is linking Midland and Bay City to the UP--it's a bit odd IMO to put industrial and urban Bay City with some of the most rural territory in the lower 48.

Also don't love the split of Kalamazoo.

[Sol]

In any case, sorry for being so persnickety. I know I keep on nitpicking others' maps--just trying to move closer to the Ideal Map. Apologies however if I'm causing offense.