Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[YE]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1225314230183829504?s=20

[Holmes]

Oh Tender will be so disappointed when he wakes up.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If we go back to all the pages when Buttigieg was winning, you won't find a single person going "lol suck it Bernie Bros" or anything similar.  I didn't write anything like that.  None of the other anti-Sanders people did either.

85% in.

Pete’s lead expands to 45 delegate equivalents.

Pete won IA.

Lets go!

Suck it Bernie Bros!

I mean, how much more direct can it get?

Kudos, I forgot about that post.  Regardless of who wins, there's no point rubbing it in to the other side, no matter how they behave.

[Adam Griffin]

HOLY SH*T THEY PROJECT A F**KING TIE

hahahahahahahahahaha

Technically not (fractionals), but we all know the media will just say "IT'S A TIE" and show whole numbers on-screen, when in any other contest, a candidate winning by like 1 vote out of 500,000 cast would have the accurate emphasis placed on it over and over for days on end.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Buttigieg isn't an establishment candidate anyway.  Nobody wanted him to get in the race and he was polling at 1% for months.  He wasn't competitive when he ran for DNC chair.

LOL he was endorsed by Howard Dean for DNC chair... Howard Dean being, of course... the former DNC chair...

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/howard-dean-endorses-pete-buttigieg-dnc-235257

[GeneralMacArthur]

Hahahahahahaha my goodness this has a real chance of ending in a literal tie.

I wonder if the campaigns will spend the next few weeks litigating it when they literally both get 11 delegates no matter what, just to see who can claim victory, or if they'll move on.

[NOVA Green]

Had the roles been switched and it had been Sanders leading in SDEs up to the last minute, Twitter would have a literal meltdown as would a lot of users on here.

You mean that people are happy about their candidate winning and unhappy about their candidate losing? Shocking!

Nope, I don’t see any Buttigieg supporters complaining about these new developments being “rigging” by the DNC/whatever. The differences between Sanders supporters and normal candidate supporters grow each day.

Tbf there are very few Buttigieg supporters on Atlas so it's hard to evaluate. A could make a strong case that "Sanders supporters" are the new normal but that's for another thread.

FWIW, re: Buttigieg supporters.


https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1225296836266745857?s=20

Now THAT is 5D Chess

It's called "Vote Banking" Man....

Harvest the votes knowing that the Warren & Pete's & Biden's & Klobs are gonna be hitting hard to convince voters to arm wrestle, while meanwhile let's just make it a 30 Min or 1 Hr Caucus instead of a 3 Hr event, where so many voters will split after the tedium and boredom might cause many enthusiastic voters not to vote, especially the workers and the students with different shift structures, many of whom have younger children and families to attend to....

Let the Old Folks do their dance and a wranglin', do the strategic retreat to the Mountains, just like the Chinese did in WW II against Japanese Fascism and....

Ok---- Hyperbole aside... tactical and strategic strategy seems sound, although I am suspicious that this is a bit of a false narrative coming from Pete supporters somewhere on the "dark web conspiracy sites".....

[Antonio the Sixth]

I went over the state map and they project Pete to net 3.11 SDEs from the outstanding non-satellite precincts. Since he's currently leading by 3.43, that would take his margin up to 6.54. So Bernie needs to net 7 from the satellite caucus to win.

[YE]

Guys, can we get somewhat back on topic please?

Still conflicted on what exactly to do but I'll go ahead and clean up some of the above posts.

[We Live in Black and White]

MacArthur derangement syndrome strikes again.  Y'all just post lies about me being some lunatic and expect everyone to believe it.  Go ahead and post my most "deranged" take from the last ten pages of the Sanders thread.

I highly advise against making that challenge.

[n1240]

So here is where we are with 7 of the 13 caucus sites accounted for:

CD1 Satellite: Cedar Rapids Public Library, Whipple Auditorium: 24
CD1 Satellite: Hoover Elementary School: 121
CD1 Satellite: RWDSU Local 110: 20
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 838: 20
CD1 Satellite: Mayflower Retirement Community Carmen Center: 72
CD1 Satellite: Kirkwood Community College Recreation Center : at least 61
CD1 Satellite: Drake Library: 98

Might be mid sized
CD1 Satellite: University of Dubuque Blades Chapel; Charles and Romonda Myers Center

Union Halls
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 893
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 94

Retirement Homes
CD1 Satellite: Edgewood Convalescent
CD1 Satellite: Faith Luthern Home
CD1 Satellite: The Meth-Wick Community

There were at least 416 caucus attendees, so there need to be 185 more to reach 601 to double the number of delegates.

What's the source on 98 at Drake Library? Co-Chair of the Poweshiek Democratic Party claims 15; massive and crucial difference.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/209580075744899/permalink/2679596665409882/

[Florida Man for Crime]

HOLY SH*T THEY PROJECT A F**KING TIE

hahahahahahahahahaha

I told you all a few pages back it would be a tie.

And then there will be a coin toss.

Which Buttigieg will of course win.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Guys, can we get somewhat back on topic please?

People really need to stop responding to everything I post with a whole slew of personal attacks.

[TWTown]

"Price said the backup phone lines crashed because internet trolls got the number and flooded the lines Monday night.
There were no calls for his resignation, a person on the call said, with more people expressing apology to him than outrage."

https://www.kezi.com/content/national/567611922.html

[Florida Man for Crime]

I wonder if Pete will retract his victory tweet.

This would be a good debate question if he ends up just short on the SDEs (as well, as course on the actual votes!).

[GeneralMacArthur]

HOLY SH*T THEY PROJECT A F**KING TIE

hahahahahahahahahaha

I told you all a few pages back it would be a tie.

And then there will be a coin toss.

Which Buttigieg will of course win.

CNN will make the coin toss an hour-long special and have a bunch of coin toss experts on air to cross-examine the guy flipping the coin for any hint of bias.

All to determine who can claim victory in a contest where they're both getting 11 delegates.

[Walmart_shopper]

I think it's better for Biden if Pete does end up losing Iowa especially because his dismal results haven't been on display. This has gone from a disaster to something that can be managed for the Biden campaign.

One tenth of a percentage point in an arbitrary metric between Pete and Bernie is not gonna make this any better than Joe Biden, the worst frontrunner of all time.

Biden has run a terrible campaign but I think his campaign isn't too unhappy at the prospect of Pete being pushed into second.

To the contrary, Biden is competing for Sanders' voters much more than for Butigieg's.  Sanders' coalition is basically young radicals plus Hispanics and older, culturally conservative white voters (who may very well vote Trump). Biden will never get the young radicals, but he needs the older conservatives and Hispanics to get the nomination. The more Buttigieg preens in front of cameras the less Sanders can steal Hispanic and older white voters away fr Biden. Biden just needs to keep Sanders from launching off as prohibitive front runner before South Carolina. Buttigieg winning Iowa would have been massively good for Biden.

Fortunately for him, nobody will likely ever realize thar Pete, in fact, lost Iowa.

[Ebsy]

What's the source on 98 at Drake Library? Co-Chair of the Poweshiek Democratic Party claims 15; massive and crucial difference.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/209580075744899/permalink/2679596665409882/

Thanks for pointing that out, I have corrected it in my numbers. Some guy on twitter said it was 98, working with what I can find here lol.

[TWTown]

All I can say is that I am very relieved that my state has transitioned into using a primary for this year.

[Florida Man for Crime]

HOLY SH*T THEY PROJECT A F**KING TIE

hahahahahahahahahaha

I told you all a few pages back it would be a tie.

And then there will be a coin toss.

Which Buttigieg will of course win.

CNN will make the coin toss an hour-long special and have a bunch of coin toss experts on air to cross-examine the guy flipping the coin for any hint of bias.

All to determine who can claim victory in a contest where they're both getting 11 delegates.

Another MacArthur post that I can wholeheartedly endorse. I think you are improving, very good!

[Mehmentum]

What's the source on 98 at Drake Library? Co-Chair of the Poweshiek Democratic Party claims 15; massive and crucial difference.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/209580075744899/permalink/2679596665409882/

Thanks for pointing that out, I have corrected it in my numbers. Some guy on twitter said it was 98, working with what I can find here lol.

Damn, that makes it much harder.

[Walmart_shopper]

What exactly is still out and who is it more likely to favor just based on raw vote totals?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What exactly is still out and who is it more likely to favor just based on raw vote totals?

I went over the state map and they project Pete to net 3.11 SDEs from the outstanding non-satellite precincts. Since he's currently leading by 3.43, that would take his margin up to 6.54. So Bernie needs to net 7 from the satellite caucus to win.

See for yourself.

[NOVA Green]

Do my eyes deceive me or does NYT have Yang at 4th place in Adair County-- ahead of Biden and Warren?

Your eyes are blind my friend... (or possibly mine).

Yang is only at 12% of 1st Alignment, 13% of 2nd Alignment, and 14% of SDE's....

*** Wait frantically reviews precinct results... 5/5 IN check.... wait scroll down***

Damn Yang placed it....

Jokes aside.... briefly ran the numbers on the County and Couldn't figure it out....

Def race to the bottom kinda county in terms of MHI, where Universal Income Might play well...

It does have a much higher % of Occupations in both mgmt and Production, so maybe that plays a roll along with an extremely high % of United Methodists and Lutherans and relatively few Roman Catholics???

IDK

[Ebsy]

So updated counts with better sourced data:

CD1 Satellite: Cedar Rapids Public Library, Whipple Auditorium: 24
CD1 Satellite: Hoover Elementary School: 121
CD1 Satellite: RWDSU Local 110: 20
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 838: 20
CD1 Satellite: Mayflower Retirement Community Carmen Center: 72
CD1 Satellite: Kirkwood Community College Recreation Center : 77
CD1 Satellite: Drake Library: 15


Likely to be mid sized
CD1 Satellite: University of Dubuque Blades Chapel; Charles and Romonda Myers Center

Union Locals
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 893
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 94

Retirement Homes
CD1 Satellite: Edgewood Convalescent
CD1 Satellite: Faith Luthern Home
CD1 Satellite: The Meth-Wick Community


We have sadly dropped down to at least 349 attendees, leaving 252 to make up from the 7 remaining precincts. Definitely an uphill climb, though a picture I saw on twitter did seem to show UAW Local 893 to have quite a few people there.