Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[tagimaucia]

Sanders: Probably wins first caucus.

Sanders supporters: Why would Pete Buttigieg do this to us?

Pete Buttigieg declared victory before any of the results were made public.

last i saw, he's claiming that he only meant "victory" for his campaign relative to expectations, not that he's stating that he won iowa definitively.  but i do think he's being intentionally vague to plant the idea in peoples heads that he won the state, regardless of what the final official results end up being (because who knows when those will actually be announced...)

[Heebie Jeebie]

Marcos Moulitsas has done a pretty good job summing up the "Eleven Key Takeaways from Last Night's Iowa Debacle":

What a night, huh? Here are the big takeaways:

1) Ever since there was a Daily Kos in 2002, I’ve railed against the Iowa caucus system. It is unfair (who made Iowa king?), unrepresentative (91% white and mostly rural), and undemocratic. With turnout expected to be around the same as 2016’s, and well off the 2008 mark, it means that only about 6% of Iowa voters turned out. And yet it’s this small group of people that’s supposed to shape the field for us? Enough is enough. The first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus is a disgrace, and finally everyone else sees it.

2) There is no conspiracy theory that explains away the incompetence of Iowa’s Democratic Party. That’s what happens when an unelected elite thinks it deserves an unearned gift—complacency and unresponsiveness.

3) That said, Joe Biden benefits the most, given what seems to be, by all indications, a dismal night. In our world of media micro-cycles, we’ll be moving on to chattering about whether Donald Trump will mention impeachment in tonight’s State of the Union address, the New Hampshire debate, and New Hampshire’s looming primary (another unrepresentative state with an unearned pole position in the primary).

4) The biggest loser, conversely, is the person who appears to have won the night—Bernie Sanders. He loses his prime-time victory speech. Ironically, it was his campaign’s insistence that Iowa count actual votes that led to last night’s disaster, but don’t blame him—he was right. While Hillary Clinton won the delegate counts in the 2016 caucuses, chances are very good that Sanders would’ve won a count of the popular vote. And why are we recreating everything that is wrong with the Electoral College at the state level? The obvious answer was to ditch the stupid delegate counts and just declare the popular vote winner the winner, right? But the Sanders camp didn’t push that.

5) The biggest asshole of the night was small-liberal-college-town Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who gave a victory speech utterly divorced from the reality on the ground. His pretend “I won and shocked the nation” speech was everything we hate about politics—a Trumpian attempt to create reality by merely declaring it so.

6) It’s hard to see how Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar continue forward from here. Sure, there’s no reason to quit before New Hampshire, but they’ve got no juice left. They bet all on Iowa, and Iowa said, “We suck,” and that was that.

7) Republicans are taking a victory lap, with a “If they can’t run a caucus, how can they run a country?” tour. Let them have it. We’d do the same if they were in these shoes. Luckily for everyone, the Iowa Democratic Party isn’t on the presidential ballot. I think we could agree to vote for the other candidates instead. And you can always ask them about the raging success of their “repeal and replace” strategy.

8 ) The cable networks pretty much all cut away from Elizabeth Warren’s speech, for reasons that make zero sense. Now, Klobuchar was smart enough to go onstage when the cable network pundits were all staring at each other with nothing to say or do. But really, with all that dead air to fill, just play the candidate speeches. All of them. I mean, CNN cut away from Warren to put on RICK ING SANTORUM. Unacceptable.

9) Given last night’s mess, it’s extrafortuitous that our new national pre-primary primary (aka “2019”) whittled down the field before Iowa could get its grubby hands on it. As a result, candidates spent less time in Iowa than they had in prior cycles.

Now I’m looking forward to seeing that number go down to single digits in future cycles.

10) Another note on turnout: The big news here is TURNOUT. They say it's on pace for 2016, which is LOW. 172,000 turned out in then, down from the record-high of 240,000 in 2008.

11) For all the talk about Sanders reshaping the electorate, it’s just not happening. If he eventually gets 25%, which seems about right, he will have lost half his support from 2016, without managing to increase the number of caucus-goers. Fact is, only Barack Obama has managed to “reshape the electorate” in recent history, and we have no one of his caliber on the line. Michelle Obama would’ve done it. Hard to see anyone else. And that’s tragic, because Obama made everything so much easier.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2/4/1916494/-Eleven-takeaways-from-last-night-s-Iowa-debacle

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/us/politics/iowa-democrats-new-hampshire.html

“Any campaign saying they won or putting out incomplete numbers is contributing to the chaos and misinformation,” said Joe Rospars, a top adviser to Ms. Warren, alluding to Mr. Sanders and Mr. Buttigieg.

But Mr. Sanders’s campaign made no apologies for the projection of strength, arguing that it would be reflected in the final results.

“We feel very confident about our performance in Iowa,” said Ari Rabin-Havt, a senior adviser to Mr. Sanders.

It was not only the top-tier candidates who clashed as Monday gave way to Tuesday, however. The campaign manager for Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota posted on Twitter that their data suggested that Ms. Klobuchar could overtake Mr. Biden in the vote count — an unverifiable claim for outside observers, but one that could be debilitating for Mr. Biden if it came to pass. Ms. Klobuchar has been running well behind the four leaders in both national polls and surveys of Iowa.

“With the numbers we’ve seen internally and publicly, we’re running even or ahead of Vice President Biden,” wrote Justin Buoen, Ms. Klobuchar’s top aide. “Wheels up to New Hampshire!”

Mr. Biden’s campaign released no data of its own and appeared eager to turn the page on the contest. In brief remarks to supporters on Monday, Mr. Biden raised an eyebrow at the disorder; both he and his campaign manager, Greg Schultz, said little about what they expected, other than Mr. Biden would win his “fair share” of delegates in Iowa.

[Diabolical Materialism]

https://twitter.com/mooncult/status/1224736815275315200

LMAO

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Iowa Democratic Party plans to release the majority of caucus results by 4pm Tuesday, Chairman Troy Price tells presidential campaigns on call.

[Skye]

(Bloomberg) -- Iowa Democratic Party plans to release the majority of caucus results by 4pm Tuesday, Chairman Troy Price tells presidential campaigns on call.

NYT says 5pm EST.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Looking back at last night, it's hard to believe something like this could happen. Like this wasn't some small congressional district or local election (not that it would be acceptable either way), this is the Democratic nomination process for President. Makes you appreciate states that have their act together and get results out in a timely manner a lot more.

Looking at you, Arizona!

Weren't the "emergency voting centers"open for several days after nov 6?  Really makes you think...

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

Not sure if this was posted, but here's a video of a woman asking to change her first vote after finding out Pete's gay: https://twitter.com/annabelpark/status/1224593999232630784?s=20

Gross

What a dumbass, you are not choosing your sex partner, you are choosing who is going to lead the country.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

(Bloomberg) -- Iowa Democratic Party plans to release the majority of caucus results by 4pm Tuesday, Chairman Troy Price tells presidential campaigns on call.

Fantastic.

Anybody wanna grab lunch?

[Thunder98]

(Bloomberg) -- Iowa Democratic Party plans to release the majority of caucus results by 4pm Tuesday, Chairman Troy Price tells presidential campaigns on call.

NYT says 5pm EST.

Iowa is in Central Time

[Crumpets]

Sanders: Probably wins first caucus.

Sanders supporters: Why would Pete Buttigieg do this to us?

Pete Buttigieg declared victory before any of the results were made public.

Yeah. Certainly a dick move, but not a conspiracy and/or cheating.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So last night before I went to bed at about 12 EST, I took a look at the NYT results, which are gone now. Sanders was narrowly leading Warren. Buttigieg in third. Klobuchar was in fourth and Biden was in fifth. Idk why NYT removed results from the site now though.

[Gass3268]

Key word being “majority.”

[RI]

So last night before I went to bed at about 12 EST, I took a look at the NYT results, which are gone now. Sanders was narrowly leading Warren. Buttigieg in third. Klobuchar was in fourth and Biden was in fifth. Idk why NYT removed results from the site now though.

The NYT numbers were literally just the AP's numbers.

[Tender Branson]

So last night before I went to bed at about 12 EST, I took a look at the NYT results, which are gone now. Sanders was narrowly leading Warren. Buttigieg in third. Klobuchar was in fourth and Biden was in fifth. Idk why NYT removed results from the site now though.

Because those numbers were only based on 2% of the expected vote.

NYT probably posts the whole new vote dump now.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Iowa Democratic Party plans to release the majority of caucus results by 4pm Tuesday, Chairman Troy Price tells presidential campaigns on call.

NYT says 5pm EST.

Most likely Bloomberg news meat 4pm central

[Grassroots]

Looks like this might end, for the most part, pretty well. Can't wait to see who wins.

[BlueSwan]

Chalian noted something interesting on CNN just now:

It was actually Bernie Sanders who emphasized to change to a more "modern" reporting system after 2016, which led the Iowa Dem. Party to purchase this app.

So it seems the IA Dems + Bernie are to blame the most for this fail, Buttigieg certainly the least ...

You can't blame Bernie, because the modernization of reporting systems is a rightful demand and makes sense. The electoral process is not conducted by Bernie supporters, unless the party's organization has been coopted by 'radical socialists' and I haven't noticed. It's the party establishment the one who has failed miserably. Hopefully this fiasco will provoke a revolution in the Democratic base and Bernie supporters will take the Winter Palace in St Petersburg (sorry, I meant the White House in Washington)

Nobody is blaming Bernie for f**ks sake. It was the BernieBros who were quick to cook up some Buttigieg conspiracy theory.

Tender Branson did that a page ago. Most of the subsequent posts are people responding to that ya dingus.

No he didn’t, he pointed out an overlooked fact. He didn’t blame Sanders.

Quote from: Tender Branson on Today at 11:34:12 am

"So it seems the IA Dems + Bernie are to blame the most for this fail, Buttigieg certainly the least ..."

Ever heard of tongue-in-cheek or sarcasm? I would be extremely surprised if Tender actually thought Sanders was behind this fiasco. It was clearly a jab at the Buttigieg accusing Sandernistas.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1224746209253974016

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1224746209253974016

"Luck" is an interesting way to spell "money."

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1224746209253974016

I would argue that Buttigieg is also a winner given how much he over-performed pre-election expectations 

[The Free North]

Really hope Bloomberg keeps up the good work. He would be a fantastic candidate, he was a successful mayor and an (actual) successful business man.

Go Mike Go!

[n1240]

Nevada Democratic Party saying they won't be using the reporting app employed in Iowa.

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1224749061539938314

[GeneralMacArthur]

So to summarize the results from the different camps:

Biden:  Wow you guys really screwed this up, we demand an explanation.  But yeah, our guy probably did pretty bad, really counting on that southern firewall.

Buttigieg:  Based on our data, we're pretty sure we won.  Hope it's confirmed soon.

Warren:  Whatever, we're on to New Hampshire.

Klobuchar:  Whatever, we're on to New Hampshire.

Sanders:  The DNC made this happen to disguise a huge Sanders victory.  We are going to release a hand-picked 40% of the results and tell people we won.  Mayor Pete made the app, in coordination with the Clinton campaign, to rig the election in his favor.  The DNC rigged the caucuses because one out of the 1700 precincts rounded the delegate distribution in Pete's favor.  #MayorCheat

[jaichind]

Wait. It seems what the Iowa Democratic Party is saying is that a "majority" of the presidential caucus results by 5 p.m. Eastern but not 100% of results.  So if it is close between Sanders and Buttigieg and/or if it is close between Biden and Klobuchar we might not know the exact ranking even at 5pm Eastern.