2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[brucejoel99]

Turns out that UMR poll was no outlier.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/newshub-reid-research-poll-jacinda-ardern-goes-stratospheric-simon-bridges-is-annihilated/_jcr_content/par/image_737964642.dynimg.full.q75.jpg/v1589779636440/PARTY_STANDINGS_1.jpg

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/newshub-reid-research-poll-jacinda-ardern-goes-stratospheric-simon-bridges-is-annihilated/_jcr_content/par/image_1833564311.dynimg.full.q75.jpg/v1589779724934/SEATS_IN_THE_HOUSE.jpg

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/592767112557232149/711823806334763088/unknown.png?width=1041&height=595

ACT is on 1.8% in this poll.

Labour have to be very, very strongly favoured to win the upcoming election now. It's very well deserved too, the government's response to Covid-19 has been excellent (another day of 0 new cases today and life is almost normal again) and Jacinda Ardern generally has been a great leader overall. 

jacinda SLAMS simon into a CONCRETE PILLAR

[brucejoel99]

The leadership challenge to Simon Bridges seems to be finally here.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/121566701/simon-bridges-faces-challenge-to-his-leadership-from-mps-todd-muller-and-nikki-kaye--source

Despite Bridges' claims, it appears he does not currently have a majority in his caucus, but nor does any single challenger (Todd Muller, Judith Collins and Mark Mitchell being the current names considered).

The Colmar Brunton poll expected tomorrow will be interesting. I kind of hope it has National at like 36% to suck some momentum from the challenge. None of them come close to matching Jacinda, but the others would probably do a little better than Bridges.

The confidence vote is next Tuesday, so that'll be a fun day to watch.

After having watched Labour undermine their leaders for years, this has become quite entertaining.

[brucejoel99]

I’m honestly torn on this one. Do I want to see Simple Simon get humiliated now or in September? I’m not sure that Simon is the problem here tbh. Sure, he’s not that great, but Covid has really thrown it to Jacinda at this point. I’m not sure anyone who replaces Bridges would do measurably better.

If National replaces Bridges and still lost (with low 30s in the party vote), would they get another leader, or would Bridges’s replacement stay for the next three years?

All they need is somebody who can be somewhat likable: not a superstar or anything, but just a reliable person. Their policies can then be expressed properly, & they can look at a mid-high 30's result. Whoever that person is, if they can drag polling back up to the high 30's, then they would've earned the right to keep the job through to 2023; if not, then it's Christopher Luxon's for the taking come September (with the leader he'd be replacing ending up as a core cabinet member in their next government).

It turns out we don't even have to wait until next Tuesday, the leadership vote is on Friday.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300016914/national-caucus-will-meet-on-friday-to-decide-simon-bridges-fate?rm=a

This seems like a smart move on Bridges' part to stop the challenge getting too much momentum.

Todd Muller has also publicly confirmed that he is challenging Bridges, saying in an email to the National caucus that "It is essential that National wins this election" and "I share the view of the majority of my colleagues that this is not possible under the current leadership." (The article is already out of date on this).

Dear National caucus: Simon Bridges is New Zealand's best hope for its post-election future. Please don't screw this up!

(Yes, this is a "don't get rid of him because it's great for Labour" sh*tpost.)

[brucejoel99]

This result would literally be more seats for Labour than their entire party list last election.

Full credit to the NZ National Party for providing everybody with free entertainment in these dark times.

[brucejoel99]

Todd Muller has been elected leader with Nikki Kaye as deputy.

Lmao Muller is no different than Bridges: he lacks experience, isn't likable, & doesn't resonante with the public too well. I wouldn't be surprised if National's vote somehow tanks even further.

Worse, he looks like Luxon, so when he fails, their backup plan isn't gonna look so hot either. Everybody will confuse them!

[brucejoel99]

Yeah, it's definitely not a sure bet for Labour. They're in a strong position, but when the recession starts to hit, people will be disheartened & angry. National (for some reason) are generally held up as the better party when it comes to running an economy, so that'll be a strong election factor on which they can potentially run very strongly.

For all of the crap I gave Muller earlier in this thread, I actually thought that he gave a pretty good speech after he won. He's seemingly - at least, in the short term - appeared to have learned from Bridges' mistakes in terms of saying that he won't focus on criticizing every governmental decision but will instead be looking at new ideas, which, to be fair, is Labour's current big achilles heel.

Also, now that Bridges is gone, NZ First is open to working with National.

Hopefully Labour can stay on the ball & nail things up to September, but at least on the basis of his first speech, I'm actually now starting to think - contrary to my earlier thoughts of him - that he might be more of a threat than Bridges was, assuming National doesn't end up managing to tear themselves apart from infighting.

[brucejoel99]

Todd Muller's leadership has already gotten off to a rocky start.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/national-mps-already-leaking-as-new-leadership-team-of-todd-muller-and-nikki-kaye-suffers-disastrous-first-sitting-day.html

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters joked: "I hadn't heard of Paora Heke Goldsmith until this morning."

New Zealand First MP Shane Jones described it as "sloppy" and said he found it "very rude".

He even delivered a mihi in Parliament on Goldsmith's behalf, "ko te Sky Tower toku whare", which roughly translates to "the Sky Tower is my home".

There’s a part of me that will miss WINston when he’s gone.

It's a part of me I hate, but it is a part of me.

[brucejoel99]

New polling:

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1267420166788431873

Wow, ACT is on 3.5%! I wonder how many years it's been since they were that high?

[brucejoel99]

Now we do seem to have some proof that Mullermania is not a thing. There is another leaked UMR poll, and these are the results:
Labour-54%
National-30%
NZ First-5%
Greens-4%

No numbers given for ACT.

Labour is down just 1 point and National up 1 point from the last leaked shock poll. The Greens and NZ First both lost a point. It is hard to give parliamentary seats without numbers for ACT, but it is certain that these numbers would result in an overall Labour majority. The one bright side for Muller is that he is on 13% for preferred Prime Minister, notably better than Simon Bridges' numbers. However, Jacinda Ardern remains on a whopping 65% for preferred Prime Minister.

UMR is of course Labour's internal pollster, but its numbers recently and in the past have matched with public polls. So the assumption now has to be that Labour retains a lead of over 20% over National (remember National was 7 points ahead of Labour in the 2017 election), and the governing parties remain above 60% (they got 50.36% combined in 2017). So a resounding win for the Labour Party, perhaps with an overall majority (which has not been achieved so far under MMP) remains likely.

Not a good start, Todd.

[brucejoel99]

A new Colmar Brunton poll has been released. Here are the numbers
Labour: 50% (-9% on previous poll, +13% on 2017 election)
National: 38% (+9%, -6%)
Green: 6% (+1%, no change)
ACT: 3% (+1%, +2%)
NZ First: 2% (-1%, -5%)

Labour + Greens= 56% (-8%, +13%)
Labour + Greens + NZ First= 58% (-9%, +8%)
National + ACT= 41% (+10%, -4%)

On preferred Prime Minister it is Jacinda Ardern at 54% and Todd Muller at 13%. His approval rating is net +9% though, much better than Simon Bridges' -40% in the last poll. That point is probably part of the reason why National has surged, the other reason being the government's rally around the flag effect beginning to wear off. There has also been controversy about the border protection measures, as people have been let out of quarantine early on compassionate exemptions without getting tested, and people haven't been tested at the end of the 14 day isolation. It doesn't seem like there has been any actual spread into the community though and so the risk of going back up the alert levels is low.

Shows that Labour's bounce was almost 100% off swing voters.

[brucejoel99]

Jacinda Ardern and her joke Government! Bragging about being corona-free and then having numerous cases over the last week, lol.

LOL what are you even talking about? The 2 cases that caused all of the uproar have recovered. Over 10,000 tests in a single day. No sign of community transmission. NZ is just fine.

You wanna talk about a joke government? Why don't you talk about the government which has seemingly decided that COVID just isn't a thing anymore? Which government is that again? Oh yeah, the United States of America, whose incumbent President you continue to fully support. Florida tested 27,602 people on Tuesday, & of those, 5,511 tested positive. And yet, you think it's NZ that's the joke here?

Get your f**king priorities straight.

[brucejoel99]

The Colmar Brunton poll results for the cannabis referendum were just released. Sadly, legalisation is narrowly down right now. It is 49% No, 40% Yes and 11% Don't Know.

Hopefully the tide can turn for legalization as September approaches.

[brucejoel99]

The National Party caucus is leaking again. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/06/national-party-s-internal-polling-revealed-as-caucus-springs-another-leak.html

Apparently their internal polling has them at 34% to Labour's 55%, when it was at 35% in their polls just before Simon Bridges was ousted. This is notably worse for them than the Colmar Brunton poll. Perhaps more importantly, it suggests the party is still deeply divided.

In related news, two National MPs in close succession-Anne Tolley and former deputy Paula Bennett announced they are retiring at this election. Bennett announced her decision on the same day as an economic speech from Todd Muller, so maybe that was deliberate on her part.

Yeah, this isn't surprising given that the poll before last had Labour governing alone during a period that saw the highest amount of media scrutiny on them, while Muller has still yet to do anything of significance &/or release any form of reasonable policy so close to an election.

Labour has fixed any issues that have been raised on their end, while National have only dug themselves into a deeper hole by calling for open borders, & it's quite possible they'll continue to dip even further towards the election.

With only a month on the job, Muller has already proven himself to be somebody who is weak, unlikable, tone deaf on the issues, unable to control his members (e.g., the outgoing deputy leader literally doing a resignation revenge dance in response to being rolled), spreads lies & fear-mongers, & isn't committed to any values that New Zealanders believe in. The "opposition for the sake of opposition" line was just a fluffy statement that he himself stopped following after 3 days.

Even Bridges had better control of his party when he was leader, which is surprising because he was awful too. You can't lead a country if you can't even get your own house in order.

[brucejoel99]

The Colmar Brunton poll results for the cannabis referendum were just released. Sadly, legalisation is narrowly down right now. It is 49% No, 40% Yes and 11% Don't Know.

Great shame if that fails.

A proud recipient of the David Cameron Referendum Loser Award.

What was her reason for calling a referendum instead of passing it in parliament, anyway? Winston's opposition?

That is part of it. The reason the referendum is being held to begin with is because it was a Green Party policy. Labour only promised decriminalisation at the 2017 election.

I feel like it'll inevitably come down to the government in the end anyway, regardless of the result. There's a lot of tax dollars to be made on legal weed, not to mention the savings on police spending, & given the current economic climate, it's gonna be needed.

[brucejoel99]

This has been a wild f**king ride.

Calling it, Nikki Kaye will be made the new leader in an attempt to create their own desperate version of Jacindamania.

[brucejoel99]

Jacindamania vs Collinsoscopy, let's go!

[brucejoel99]

Two senior National MPs announced their retirements. Nikki Kaye, who just a few days ago was deputy leader, is retiring from politics. That also means her electorate probably won't be held by National. Also, Amy Adams is retiring. Her situation is absolutely ridiculous as she retired last year under Simon Bridges, then un-retired as soon as Muller was elected and now right after this leadership change she is re-retiring.

Jesus, this is a full-on implosion at this point. I wonder how many more rats will manage to flee the sinking ship before the election.

[brucejoel99]

The best thing Labour can do right now is sit on their hands & let National do its own hole-digging. Short of something going very bad (like a further major COVID screw-up at the border leading to a recurrence of community spread), Labour is looking very good so far.

[brucejoel99]

www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12349831

Winston Peters is going hard on the attack against Labour and the Greens, saying a Labour-Green government would be a "nightmare for NZ". This comes just days after he boasted about stopping "woke pixie dust" from them. He clearly wants to position himself as a handbrake on Labour and the Greens. It does sound a bit excessive some of the stuff he said, for instance saying that "I've been in this game a long time, and I've never had three years so difficult" and ""manage circumstances when you're surrounded by plain inexperience". If that's the case though, doesn't that tell people that his decision to go with Labour in 2017 was a mistake?

A "nightmare for NZ First," Winston. Not NZ. Important distinction.

[brucejoel99]

This election is so good. Is it always this spicy, or am I just paying more attention this time?

[brucejoel99]

[The latest poll] is yet another shockingly good result for Labour.
Labour-60.9%
National-25.1%
Green-5.7%
ACT-3.3%
NZ First-2.0%

Preferred Prime Minister is Jacinda at 62% and 14.5% for Judith Collins.

Oh. my. god. Good lord, this is disastrous for National.

Y'know, democracy is a cruel mistress. Sometimes, the public rewards the villains instead of the heroes. This isn't one of those times. Collins & the backstabbing party of dirty tricks are getting exactly what they deserve.

[brucejoel99]

On the one hand, when polls show leads of 'this meteorite will destroy all life on Earth' proportions they are nearly always massive exaggerations. On the other, well, such polling does tend to mean the only question is the scale of the landslide not whether it will happen or not.

Yeah, this might be a one-off extreme low poll, & National could bounce back (a bit). Anything could happen on Election Day. A sudden economic "oh f**k!" event (on top of the current sh*tty economy), a 2nd wave, more scandals, etc. could easily see Labour crash down to the 40s-zone.

One thing's for certain: this is gonna get the political reporting, attack pieces, opinion section (aka attack pieces) flowing. Winston's probably gonna take it to 11 & throw everything that he can at the polling.

we, in America, need a leader who's going to call Jacinda and say "Girlfriend, you are so on" because we need to make America the best place for a kid to grow up. Right now it's NZ but we can change that.

We unfortunately lost our chance of that when Marianne willingly sacrificed herself for our sins

[brucejoel99]

Assuming ACT wins Epsom, here’s the seat calculation:

Labour 77
National 32
Greens 7
ACT 4

Labour needs 61 to govern alone. No party has gained a majority of seats in parliament since the introduction of MMP in the 1996 election.

National currently has ~38 electorate MPs, so we may see some overhang &/or them not have any list MPs.

And Paul Goldsmith's gonna have to actually fight for Epsom to stay in, because losing it could push ACT out entirely.

[brucejoel99]

Roy Morgan numbers for July are out. Slight dips in vote shares for Labour, National, and the Greens; ACT continues their rise; Labour still able to govern alone.

- LAB: 53.5% (-1%)
- NAT: 26.5% (-0.5%)
- GRN: 8% (-1%)
- NZ First: 1.5% (-)
- ACT: 6.5% (+1.5%)
- TOP: 1.5% (-)
- Maori: 0.5% (-0.5%)

Translated into seats, Parliament would look like this:

- Labour: 68
- National: 34
- Green: 10
- ACT: 8

Time to pull out all the stops, Judith! I'm thinking many beautiful, multi-story highways!!

[brucejoel99]

With recent cases of community transmission of Covid-19 in Auckland, there is now doubt over whether the election will go ahead as planned on 19 September. Judith Collins has called for the election to be delayed until November or even next year

As you say, absolutely no self-interest involved there

National is honestly just such a clown car at the moment. They're gonna get murdered in the polls, as this sort of sh*t just doesn't fly in NZ. If they don't pull their heads from out of their asses, then they're gonna go under 20%. They need to "read the room" of the country's response to this: NZ overwhelmingly wants unity & leadership, not bullsh*t & division.