2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)
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Author Topic: 2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)  (Read 41699 times)
Pericles
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« on: January 30, 2020, 09:47:19 PM »
« edited: August 16, 2020, 05:55:01 PM by President Pericles »

Seems like time for a thread on this. A few days ago Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern named September 19 as the date for the next general election, along with referendums on euthanasia and marijuana legalization. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/01/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-confirms-2020-general-election-date.html

The election looks competitive, with a National Party led government, a Labour-Greens government and a continuation of the Labour-NZ First-Greens government all looking plausible. The most recent poll was taken in November and had National on 46%, Labour on 39%, Greens 7%, NZ First 4.3% and ACT 1.6% (which would have barely gotten a National led government), but Jacinda Ardern has much higher personal popularity, beating Opposition Leader Simon Bridges by 26 points in the preferred Prime Minister stakes. The cannabis referendum looks very competitive right now, so far the euthanasia referendum looks like it will pass (though I haven't seen much polling on that).
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2020, 10:43:31 PM »

Petition to change thread title to “2020 New Zealand general election and reefer-end-them (19 September)”

x Fubart Solman

Sounds like NZ First is the one to watch. Will they break 5%? Also, I’m surprised that Labour is so low given how popular Jacinda is.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2020, 10:47:56 PM »

I think a lot will depend on economy.  If New Zealand dips into recession could favour National, but if economy says strong slight advantage Ardern but lots of variables.

In favour of Labour

- Ardern is a lot more popular than Bridges on a personal level and often leader # are lead indicators
- Marijuana referendum should help bring out more younger voters who generally tend to vote Labour, see Canada 2015 as Trudeau's promised to legalize marijuana
- Real chance NZ First falls below 5% thus increasing odds Labour + Greens get majority of seats

In favour of National

- More National voters than Labour by default and also tend to show up
- ACT has one seat and high enough in polls even without crossing 5% line, could get an extra seat and that helps make National getting a majority more likely

Off course major events as we saw with Christchurch shooting between now and election could swing things.  For example if Coronavirus hits NZ and government handles it badly could sink them, just as well a strong handling could help them.  I've also heard National may dump Bridges and bring in a more popular leader as Labour last time around looked like they had no chance with Andrew Little, but changing leaders changed all that.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2020, 11:14:20 PM »

Off course major events as we saw with Christchurch shooting between now and election could swing things.  For example if Coronavirus hits NZ and government handles it badly could sink them, just as well a strong handling could help them.  I've also heard National may dump Bridges and bring in a more popular leader as Labour last time around looked like they had no chance with Andrew Little, but changing leaders changed all that.

Who does National have that would be better than Bridges?
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Pericles
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« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2020, 11:56:54 PM »

Off course major events as we saw with Christchurch shooting between now and election could swing things.  For example if Coronavirus hits NZ and government handles it badly could sink them, just as well a strong handling could help them.  I've also heard National may dump Bridges and bring in a more popular leader as Labour last time around looked like they had no chance with Andrew Little, but changing leaders changed all that.

Who does National have that would be better than Bridges?

The main alternative is Judith Collins. Whether she'd be better than Bridges, well that's debatable.
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2020, 03:02:41 AM »

The background to this election is the 2017 result. My sense is the public mood then was essentially that National had managed the economy well and Labour weren't fully trustworthy there, but National had neglected other areas like housing, public services and the environment. So that and of course Jacinda Ardern's personal popularity led to the mixed result. Since then, Jacinda Ardern has if anything become even more popular (while Simon Bridges lacks the gravitas of Bill English). The economy has not gone into recession yet and the budget is in great shape, but gl obal economic uncertainty is a worry for Labour and National likes to highlight low business confidence (how much this matters is unclear).

There is however a widespread sense that Labour has overpromised and underdelivered, and that it hasn't actually accomplished much domestically. Soundbites like 'a transformational government' and 'the year of delivery' have come back to haunt Labour. This isn't entirely fair-Labour has made a major accomplishment on climate change, has boosted education and health spending, invested in mental health and generally are doing a better job than National imo. That said, Labour has so far failed to address the housing crisis, with its Kiwibuild program being a massive flop and Labour ditching the idea of a capital gains tax due to it being a political liability. On poverty Labour has also struggled to go as far as it probably should be, with the political will not being apparent so far for recommended changes like an increase in welfare benefits. On infrastructure, the government had been under attack previously, but recently announced a $12 billion investment there (the timing is good due to low borrowing costs, but also of course it is good timing politically).

Still, New Zealanders are usually pretty generous to first-term governments-the last one that lost was in 1975. Leadership is also a big factor, and Labour has a big advantage over National there. So far, with sparse and volatile polling, it's hard to predict the election result.

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Pericles
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« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2020, 12:14:10 AM »

National Party leader Simon Bridges has ruled out working with NZ First after the election, saying "I don't trust NZ First and I don't believe New Zealanders can either." It's a bit of a bold move, since it ensures that if NZ First has the balance of power again National won't form the government. ACT currently is National's only ally, and they got 0.5% of the party vote and 1 MP last election. However, NZ First was probably always going to choose Labour. I think this is the right move by National and their best move is to try and drive NZ First under the 5% threshold-which this does by ensuring a vote for NZ First is seen as a vote for a Labour government.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119215711/simon-bridges-rules-out-working-with-nz-first-after-election
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Polkergeist
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« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2020, 12:34:36 AM »

Pericles,

What's happened to the Conservatives. They were a threat to passing the threshold in 2014 and then imploded.

I think they have reformed as "New Conservatives", however are they a viable force this year?
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Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: February 02, 2020, 12:46:09 AM »

Pericles,

What's happened to the Conservatives. They were a threat to passing the threshold in 2014 and then imploded.

I think they have reformed as "New Conservatives", however are they a viable force this year?

Yeah they got 0.24% in the last election. There's some chatter about them being a contender this year, and National is looking for allies. However it is unlikely at this stage, in the most recent poll they were on just 1%, and have been stuck polling at 0-1%. Most likely National takes virtually all the right-wing vote, while ACT gets 1 or 2%. National's ceiling is probably 47% (what they got in their 2011 and 2014 landslides) while them falling below 40% is unlikely (and would be a nightmarish election result for them).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #9 on: February 02, 2020, 06:47:38 PM »

National Party did get below 40% in 2005 although that was a different era and that was at the height of third way social democracy.  Today that coalition for Labour probably not feasible as there is a much stronger left wing base amongst millennials who will go elsewhere if Labour moves that close to centre, but at same time being left of that ensures they will struggle outside big cities and amongst older voters who would go for a centrist Labour, but not left of centre (Ardern may not be Third way, but she isn't either hard left like Jeremy Corbyn either).

My guess is National party wins popular vote, but Labour ends up forming government, but wouldn't be surprised if Labour narrowly wins the popular vote or National forms government.  If my prediction happens, it would mean 3 of the 5 Anglosphere countries have leaders who lost popular vote (Trudeau and Trump the other two).
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Pericles
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« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2020, 08:51:46 PM »

National Party did get below 40% in 2005 although that was a different era and that was at the height of third way social democracy.  Today that coalition for Labour probably not feasible as there is a much stronger left wing base amongst millennials who will go elsewhere if Labour moves that close to centre, but at same time being left of that ensures they will struggle outside big cities and amongst older voters who would go for a centrist Labour, but not left of centre (Ardern may not be Third way, but she isn't either hard left like Jeremy Corbyn either).

My guess is National party wins popular vote, but Labour ends up forming government, but wouldn't be surprised if Labour narrowly wins the popular vote or National forms government.  If my prediction happens, it would mean 3 of the 5 Anglosphere countries have leaders who lost popular vote (Trudeau and Trump the other two).

Well I don't think the NZ example is quite the same as those two because of our proportional electoral system. National received a plurality of seats and votes in the last election, but the governing parties combined got both a majority of the party vote (50.36%, and 5% higher than the pro-National bloc) and a majority of seats. It'd be like Trump and Trudeau if National got more votes but got less seats than Labour-which of course can't happen under our current electoral system.
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Pericles
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« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2020, 12:19:46 AM »

A new poll from Newshub came out the other day (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/02/national-and-labour-neck-and-neck-in-new-newshub-reid-research-poll.html).
The results were National 43.3%, Labour 42.5%, Green 5.6%, NZ First 3.6%, ACT 1.8%. So that results in 56 seats for National (no change from 2017), 55 seats for Labour (+9), 7 seats for the Greens (-1), 2 seats for ACT (+1) and 0 seats for NZ First (-9). Therefore, it results in a Labour-Greens government with 62 seats to 58 for the Opposition (for comparison, Labour-NZ First-Greens right now has 63 seats to 57 for National and ACT). Those seat projections assume that NZ First or other minor parties like the Maori Party don't gain an electorate seat, which is pretty likely but not certain. In that poll, preferred Prime Minister ratings are Jacinda Ardern on 38.7% and Simon Bridges on 10.6%.

As the previous Newshub poll was not as favourable to National as the Colmar Brunton one, the changes in this poll from the last are only small. For preferred Prime Minister that is virtually no change for Jacinda but an increase of around 4 points for Bridges, so he isn't doing as badly as before. However he is still way behind Jacinda and 10.6% is pretty low, so that remains a big disadvantage for him.
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Pericles
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« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2020, 04:48:30 AM »

Colmar Brunton released a new poll (https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-national-and-act-hold-numbers-form-government). It was pretty similar to their last one, National still has the numbers to form a government. Here are the party vote numbers;
National- 46%
Labour-41%
Green Party-5%
New Zealand First-3%
ACT-2%

Due to New Zealand First falling below the 5% threshold and their vote therefore being wasted, National and ACT on these numbers would have a majority-59 seats for National (+3), 52 seats for Labour (+6), 7 seats for the Greens (-1), 2 seats for ACT (+1), 0 seats for NZ First (-9). The preferred Prime Minister numbers have Jacinda Ardern's lead growing even larger, with her on 42% (a 6-point increase from the last poll) to Bridges on 11% (up 1% from the last poll).

So I'm not quite sure what to make of this, at the moment I do think National will underperform this poll (the Newshub poll seems more accurate and was better in the last election).
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DL
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« Reply #13 on: February 13, 2020, 11:12:41 AM »

Doesnt Labour get a bit of a cushion because they and their allies always sweep the 7 (?) Maori seats?
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #14 on: February 13, 2020, 05:05:08 PM »

Doesnt Labour get a bit of a cushion because they and their allies always sweep the 7 (?) Maori seats?

Not always. NZ First was strong in the Māori seats in the late 90’s IIRC. The Māori Party split off in the early 2000s due to disagreements over the interpretation of the Treaty of Waitangi in respect to the foreshore or something like that. The Māori Party propped up National for a fair amount of the Key/English years. Mana was basically just Hone Harawira (he’s a fascinating fellow) trying to be relevant; it was also pretty far to the left. Labour did sweep the Māori seats in 2017, meaning that there are no Māori based parties in the Māori seats (or in parliament). Mana has crumbled and I’m somewhat doubtful that the Māori Party can win any of the Māori seats this time around.
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Pericles
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« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2020, 04:29:04 AM »

Doesnt Labour get a bit of a cushion because they and their allies always sweep the 7 (?) Maori seats?

If somehow National won the Maori seats (of course this is not happening), that would make no difference to the overall seat result due to the electoral system being proportional. The Maori seats (or any electorate seat result for that matter) only change the results when the party winning that seat would not have otherwise gotten representation in parliament (because they would be below the 5% party vote threshold).

The Maori Party and Mana Party never got close to the 5% threshold, there are also minor parties like ACT and previously United Future that got given an electorate by the National Party so they would stay in parliament and this slightly boosts National's chances of forming a government.

For this election, Epsom will almost certainly affect the results by again letting ACT get into parliament without getting 5% of the vote, and perhaps ACT will get enough of the party vote to get one or two list MPs too. There is also the possibility that NZ First falls below the 5% threshold but due to Labour support wins an electorate seat such as Northland, and so remains in parliament, but this is unlikely. Labour perhaps should do an electorate deal with the Greens to ensure there isn't a situation where they get 4.9% of the vote and so have 0 seats, while the wasted vote boosts National and leads to a National government. The Greens probably won't win an electorate though, a deal with Labour doesn't seem to be on the agenda.

There is also a slim possibility the Maori Party stages a comeback and wins a Maori seat, but that probably won't happen either. Even if it did, the Maori Party might back Labour this time, backing National again would be political suicide. The Maori Party have never been in a position where if they chose to support the other major party, that would have actually changed which government was formed (however if they had been re-elected in the 2017 election, it does seem pretty likely they would have backed Bill English and the National Party).
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« Reply #16 on: February 17, 2020, 08:43:03 AM »

weren't Labour going to get rid of that silly coat-tailing rule? Seems much better for proportionality if they ditch it and lower the threshold a bit to 4 or 3 percent.
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Pericles
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« Reply #17 on: March 19, 2020, 01:30:15 AM »

Coronavirus seems like it will have a big impact on the upcoming election. The government has had a strong response to it so far-with Jacinda Ardern taking some of the strongest measures in the world such as requiring all new arrivals in NZ to self-isolate a few days ago and just closed New Zealand's borders outright. The government announced a $12 billion stimulus package (as a sidenote, that package managed to slip in a 25% permanent increase in welfare benefits that in normal times would have been a big political story on its own and very controversial but got hardly any attention now). Simon Bridges got criticised a bit for coming across as too negative and politicising the issue too much. New Zealand so far has had a light impact from coronavirus, with 28 cases that are all overseas arrivals and no evidence of community transmission yet. However it will get worse and the Finance Minister has acknowledged there will be a recession.

The political impact of this is unclear. So far Jacinda Ardern's response has been very well-received from the public and yet again she has excelled in a crisis. A family member of mine who voted Labour last time was leaning National beforehand and now is very supportive of how Jacinda has handled it and is saying they'll definitely vote Labour. However, it's not clear if that sentiment will last until September with the economy going into recession. It's also possible that the election is delayed, here is an article on how that could work-https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/18-03-2020/the-nz-election-is-a-big-event-could-it-be-delayed-in-a-covid-19-world/ Given a lot of the voting is not in person on the day voting, sticking with the current date may be viable. Politically, it seems to me that the further we go the more memories of Jacinda's strong handling of this crisis fade and dissatisfaction with the now in recession economy come to the fore, so it could be better for Labour to have the election soon. However, public health and saving lives always comes first.
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Pericles
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« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2020, 09:44:18 PM »

There has been renewed speculation of a leadership change in the National Party this week. The spark was Simon Bridges' response to the government extending the level 4 lockdown through the weekend, basically he said the government "hasn't done the groundwork" on issues such as contact tracing and New Zealand's lockdown is too strict-he claims Australia has gotten similar health outcomes with a more relaxed lockdown but the economic cost is less there (honestly it's probably too early to tell and New Zealand's strategy of elimination seems slightly different from Australia's strategy of suppression). People did not take kindly to perceived political posturing right now. His Facebook post received unprecedented engagement by his standards, the problem for him was the vast majority of that engagement was negative (and often apparent National Party supporters claiming they supported Jacinda Ardern over Bridges on this). Bridges has often struck the wrong tone and said the wrong thing at the wrong time, and generally people just don't like him, this reinforces that pattern.

The next day, speculation arose in the media that a leadership coup was in the works with a ticket of Mark Mitchell (Rodney MP and 2018 leadership contender)/Paula Bennett (the current deputy leader).  This did originate from a left-wing blogger though, so it might not be true, but it's never a good sign. Reportedly, internal polls right now have National in the mid to low 30s, with Labour having received a big bounce from their handling of the pandemic (which is unsurprising given most governments are getting a bounce).

It doesn't seem like a coup will actually go ahead right now since playing internal politics in the middle of a pandemic is a bad look, but I wouldn't rule out Simon Bridges not making it to the election. And if he does, while the National Party brand so far remains strong the Simon Bridges brand is weak so it will be tough for him to win, especially given he's totally outmatched by his opponent on likability and personal popularity.
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Pulaski
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« Reply #19 on: April 26, 2020, 09:42:55 AM »

The spark was Simon Bridges' response to the government extending the level 4 lockdown through the weekend, basically he said the government "hasn't done the groundwork" on issues such as contact tracing and New Zealand's lockdown is too strict-he claims Australia has gotten similar health outcomes with a more relaxed lockdown but the economic cost is less there (honestly it's probably too early to tell and New Zealand's strategy of elimination seems slightly different from Australia's strategy of suppression).

He's not wrong, really; media here have been saying similar things - Australia seems to have achieved very similar results with slightly less restrictive measures. The strategy may be different, but that's a minor concern as far as I'm concerned; neither country is likely to eradicate the virus any time soon.

I'm cautiously optimistic about the cannabis referendum - I was planning on looking into a trip to NZ next year to celebrate. Obviously that may not happen now.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #20 on: April 26, 2020, 10:17:04 AM »

Seeming overly eager to lift virus lockdowns generally does not appear to be terribly popular.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #21 on: April 26, 2020, 05:45:00 PM »

Lol, the Greens might run an 18 year old against Jacinda. https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN21Y1LI

Seems like this kid doesn’t understand that politics requires compromise. That being said, I’d love to see Labour shedding NZ First and going into C&S with the Greens (if they even need it). Have there been any public polls since February? If National is in the low 30’s, I could see Labour polling 50%.
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« Reply #22 on: April 26, 2020, 11:28:50 PM »

What happened to TOP? They were the highest polling party to not enter parliament last time and now their numbers are like, 1/10 of their 2017 result.
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« Reply #23 on: April 27, 2020, 08:41:54 AM »

Any chance the government parties make a deal not to run in every constituency so that NZ First and the Greens are guaranteed to enter the parliament by getting a safe FPTP seat?
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #24 on: April 27, 2020, 01:40:57 PM »

What happened to TOP? They were the highest polling party to not enter parliament last time and now their numbers are like, 1/10 of their 2017 result.

They had something of a Perot situation. They were about to deregister, but stayed together at the last minute. As far as I know, their leader, Gareth Morgan, won’t have anything to do with the party this time. Their current leader, Geoff Simmons was the deputy leader under Morgan.

Lots of NZ parties have pretty much collapsed after they lost their final seats or failed to win any seats at all. See (Internet-)Mana, the Conservatives, the Progressives, the Alliance, United Future, etc. Some of these were more personality based than others, but the minor parties generally don’t do too well if they didn’t get any seats in the previous election.

The Maori Party and NZ First are the ones to watch, imo. The Maori party probably still has a ceiling just north of 2%, but the real question is whether they can win electorates or not. They didn’t last time. NZ First doesn’t really have a good electorate base (Northland, 2015 was more of a fluke, imo) and has been polling below 5%. The Greens could have reason to worry, but they’ve at least been polling higher than NZ First.

Any chance the government parties make a deal not to run in every constituency so that NZ First and the Greens are guaranteed to enter the parliament by getting a safe FPTP seat?

I doubt it myself, but if Labour does make a deal with the Greens, I think it will be in Nelson. National holds it and the Greens broke 20% in the electorate race; still behind Labour though, which is part of why I doubt it would happen.

Pericles would probably have better insight than I would.
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