2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Pericles]

In the two MMP elections where the governing party was polling at majority government levels, they ended up losing enough support in the campaign to fall short.
2011 election (not seen on this graph is a big NZ First surge at the end)

2002 election


The noticeable thing here is that the governing party lost support to the minor parties, rather than the other main party. However, it might be that the minor parties are too weak this time for that to occur again (the Greens only have limited ideological appeal, NZ First is shedding a lot of support and ACT has a very low starting point-0.5%-and might lose some momentum from Judith Collins being leader). The main precedent for a major party having a big campaign surge is of course Labour in 2017, and maybe Judith Collins will get a boost from having more cut-through than Bridges and Muller. However, she doesn't have Jacinda-level charisma and there isn't anything close to the pre-existing mood for change that there was in 2017.

[CumbrianLefty]

Things will invariably tighten.  National Party has a strong base so I think odds are they get over 35% and my guess is they probably get in upper 30s.  Most elections National gets over 40% so just getting under 40% let alone under 30% is a bad showing.  Main question is does Labour get a majority on its own or have to rely on Greens.  Yes stranger things can happen but the gap is big enough that National winning outright seems unlikely.  Although if a swing similar to 2017 happened (note National had a 20 point lead at this point), it would be a lot closer.

Of course one must expect *some* National recovery from their present all-time lows, but as things stand getting to the upper 30s is far from "inevitable" I would say.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/07/newshub-reid-research-poll-voters-want-minor-parties-in-parliament.html

fwiw voters (including Labour voters) are still far more keen on a continued coalition/minority government than a majority Labour government (remarkable how quickly the majoritarian mindset created by FPTP has inverted); although it  many voters aren't presently taking the bait on offer from the minors. I imagine a competent Green campaign could raise them closer to their ceiling, as they offer guaranteed support for Jacinda while not actually voting Labour. Aside from them, Maori-Mana still exist (well the latter is a paper organization now, but Hone is supporting the Maori Party candidates) but from what I can't tell they aren't exactly doing much, given Jacinda has not walked into any of the old traps.

also I really should note that Winston Peters and ACT's leader are extremely dignified politicians, who would never call each other cucks:

"Peters himself will soon be retired and will require a care worker to help him get dressed and go for a walk. He'll discover that such facilities can't function without migrant workers," Seymour tweeted.

Peters fired back, promising if he and Seymour ever got in the ring, he'd put him in an ambulance with a single punch. He followed that up the next day by calling Seymour a "political cuckold".

[Polkergeist]

Things will invariably tighten.  National Party has a strong base so I think odds are they get over 35% and my guess is they probably get in upper 30s.  Most elections National gets over 40% so just getting under 40% let alone under 30% is a bad showing.  Main question is does Labour get a majority on its own or have to rely on Greens.  Yes stranger things can happen but the gap is big enough that National winning outright seems unlikely.  Although if a swing similar to 2017 happened (note National had a 20 point lead at this point), it would be a lot closer.

Of course one must expect *some* National recovery from their present all-time lows, but as things stand getting to the upper 30s is far from "inevitable" I would say.

This Newshub poll will give Collins cover for a bad election result if she can bring the National party vote into the 30's.

Sure its a ~ -10% swing, but Collins can say she saved the furniture.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, not unlike Mike Moore being able to stay on as Labour leader after the 1990 drubbing.

Btw, the 1989-90 period is the previous time when the polls have been as lopsided as now (though in the opposite direction) the difference, of course, being that the trailing party was then in government.

[Pericles]

Colmar Brunton poll (last poll was during Todd Muller's leadership)

[Polkergeist]

Flicking through the wikipedia polling pages, the last time ACT was polling higher than today's CB poll was in Dec 2003.

[Pericles]

Flicking through the wikipedia polling pages, the last time ACT was polling higher than today's CB poll was in Dec 2003.

That's roughly when the National Party was as weak as it is right now too. Of course, Seymour has also boosted his profile this term by being the lone pro-gun voice and pushing for euthanasia.

[Polkergeist]

Flicking through the wikipedia polling pages, the last time ACT was polling higher than today's CB poll was in Dec 2003.

That's roughly when the National Party was as weak as it is right now too. Of course, Seymour has also boosted his profile this term by being the lone pro-gun voice and pushing for euthanasia.

It was also just before Brash's Orewa Speech.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2005_New_Zealand_general_election

[CumbrianLefty]

There has also been a seeming outlier poll putting Labour "only" about 10 points ahead?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

There has also been a seeming outlier poll putting Labour "only" about 10 points ahead?

Curia (National’s in house pollster) has a poll out from a few days ago with Labour at 47, National at 36, Greens at 6, and ACT at 3. Funny how that’s 1% above the result Collins had previously said would be the end of her leadership.

[CumbrianLefty]

There has also been a seeming outlier poll putting Labour "only" about 10 points ahead?

Curia (National’s in house pollster) has a poll out from a few days ago with Labour at 47, National at 36, Greens at 6, and ACT at 3. Funny how that’s 1% above the result Collins had previously said would be the end of her leadership.

I'm sure that is a complete coincidence. Not

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

There has also been a seeming outlier poll putting Labour "only" about 10 points ahead?

Curia (National’s in house pollster) has a poll out from a few days ago with Labour at 47, National at 36, Greens at 6, and ACT at 3. Funny how that’s 1% above the result Collins had previously said would be the end of her leadership.

I'm sure that is a complete coincidence. Not

Always good to treat internals with a bit of skepticism!

[skbl17]

Roy Morgan numbers for July are out. Slight dips in vote shares for Labour, National, and the Greens; ACT continues their rise; Labour still able to govern alone.

- LAB: 53.5% (-1%)
- NAT: 26.5% (-0.5%)
- GRN: 8% (-1%)
- NZ First: 1.5% (-)
- ACT: 6.5% (+1.5%)
- TOP: 1.5% (-)
- Maori: 0.5% (-0.5%)

Translated into seats, Parliament would look like this:

- Labour: 68
- National: 34
- Green: 10
- ACT: 8

[brucejoel99]

Roy Morgan numbers for July are out. Slight dips in vote shares for Labour, National, and the Greens; ACT continues their rise; Labour still able to govern alone.

- LAB: 53.5% (-1%)
- NAT: 26.5% (-0.5%)
- GRN: 8% (-1%)
- NZ First: 1.5% (-)
- ACT: 6.5% (+1.5%)
- TOP: 1.5% (-)
- Maori: 0.5% (-0.5%)

Translated into seats, Parliament would look like this:

- Labour: 68
- National: 34
- Green: 10
- ACT: 8

Time to pull out all the stops, Judith! I'm thinking many beautiful, multi-story highways!!

[Pericles]

With recent cases of community transmission of Covid-19 in Auckland, there is now doubt over whether the election will go ahead as planned on 19 September. Judith Collins has called for the election to be delayed until November or even next year. In a development that suggests this isn't entirely impossible, the dissolution of parliament that was scheduled for today got delayed for several days. However, this outbreak is pretty tame so far (4 confirmed community transmission cases in one household and 4 linked probable cases), and it should be contained pretty quickly. If it does escalate into a second wave like in Victoria, then there might need to be a delay. However, this looks like National is just trying to buy time due to their bad polls, and it reflects badly on them that their first reaction to the new cases was to call for an election delay. There are some more legal mechanisms for a delay than countries like the US-this article explains how it could work.

If the election goes ahead as planned, these new cases could impact the campaign. The worst-case scenario, both for public health and politically, is that it is a second wave. That could be a game changer. If it's handled well, then the effect is just to compress the campaign period. Even though community transmission is a blot on Jacinda's record, taking out at least a week of the election campaign with Covid news is hardly bad for Labour. Hopefully-for the country most importantly-the outbreak is quickly contained and things can go back to normal.

[CumbrianLefty]

With recent cases of community transmission of Covid-19 in Auckland, there is now doubt over whether the election will go ahead as planned on 19 September. Judith Collins has called for the election to be delayed until November or even next year

As you say, absolutely no self-interest involved there

[brucejoel99]

With recent cases of community transmission of Covid-19 in Auckland, there is now doubt over whether the election will go ahead as planned on 19 September. Judith Collins has called for the election to be delayed until November or even next year

As you say, absolutely no self-interest involved there

National is honestly just such a clown car at the moment. They're gonna get murdered in the polls, as this sort of sh*t just doesn't fly in NZ. If they don't pull their heads from out of their asses, then they're gonna go under 20%. They need to "read the room" of the country's response to this: NZ overwhelmingly wants unity & leadership, not bullsh*t & division.

[CumbrianLefty]

Latest virus outbreak is now up to around 15 cases and climbing.

Hopefully the swift action taken will stop it spreading that much further.

[brucejoel99]

ASHLEY BLOOMFIELD MADE COVID COME BACK ON PURPOSE SO JACINDA STAYS PRIME MINISTER BECAUSE HE'S SCARED OF JUDY COLLINS, I JUST KNOW IT !!!!1!

[Pericles]

The election has been delayed until 17 October due to the new Covid-19 outbreak, and that a majority of MPs supported a delay to the election with National and NZ First demanding it. Even though their demands are clearly politically motivated, sticking with 19 September did risk a political and constitutional crisis. I would have liked her to tell them to go to hell, but it's probably the safer choice to just delay the election and turnout might be higher than it would have been.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I saw that there was a poll of the Northland Electorate on Wiki that hasn’t been mentioned here:

Q+A Colmar Brunton
29 July - 4 August

Matt King (National) 46%
Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) 31%
Shane Jones (NZ First) 15%
Darleen Hoff-Nielsen (Green) 3%
Mel Taylor (New Conservative Party) 2%
Mark Cameron (ACT) 1%

Not looking good for NZ First.

Source

[brucejoel99]

The election has been delayed until 17 October due to the new Covid-19 outbreak, and that a majority of MPs supported a delay to the election with National and NZ First demanding it. Even though their demands are clearly politically motivated, sticking with 19 September did risk a political and constitutional crisis. I would have liked her to tell them to go to hell, but it's probably the safer choice to just delay the election and turnout might be higher than it would have been.

How kind of Jacinda to give National the chance for another leadership change or 2.

[Pericles]

I saw that there was a poll of the Northland Electorate on Wiki that hasn’t been mentioned here:

Q+A Colmar Brunton
29 July - 4 August

Matt King (National) 46%
Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) 31%
Shane Jones (NZ First) 15%
Darleen Hoff-Nielsen (Green) 3%
Mel Taylor (New Conservative Party) 2%
Mark Cameron (ACT) 1%

Not looking good for NZ First.

Source

Oh yeah, that basically confirms my instinct that this race is overrated and NZ First won't be saved by an electorate if they get below 5%. Also interesting were the party vote numbers, 41% Labour-38% National (it was 46% National-30% Labour in 2017). On a uniform swing that implies 48% Labour nationwide to 36% National. I'm not sure whether the swing to Labour would be higher or lower than nationwide in this relatively rural conservative electorate. It's probably lower given that if these uniform swing numbers were in a nationwide poll, it would be considered a good poll for National.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I saw that there was a poll of the Northland Electorate on Wiki that hasn’t been mentioned here:

Q+A Colmar Brunton
29 July - 4 August

Matt King (National) 46%
Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) 31%
Shane Jones (NZ First) 15%
Darleen Hoff-Nielsen (Green) 3%
Mel Taylor (New Conservative Party) 2%
Mark Cameron (ACT) 1%

Not looking good for NZ First.

Source

Oh yeah, that basically confirms my instinct that this race is overrated and NZ First won't be saved by an electorate if they get below 5%. Also interesting were the party vote numbers, 41% Labour-38% National (it was 46% National-30% Labour in 2017). On a uniform swing that implies 48% Labour nationwide to 36% National. I'm not sure whether the swing to Labour would be higher or lower than nationwide in this relatively rural conservative electorate. It's probably lower given that if these uniform swing numbers were in a nationwide poll, it would be considered a good poll for National.

I wonder if part of the good numbers for National are from folks who had been NZ First voters. NZ First did almost twice as well in Northland as their nationwide average.

Speaking of NZ First, I think even WINston would have troubles winning the electorate with 2% in the national party vote.