2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[catographer]

Though away from National's troubles just for the moment, Labour's immigration minister has been axed by the PM after admitting a year long relationship with a staff member may have been an "abuse of power". As with the last government departure, swift action by Ardern might limit the damage.

From an objective nonpartisan perspective, Ardern sounds like she’s handling the situation exactly how someone should: take responsibility and hold folks accountable. What’s a better way to handle it?

To take her part of responsibility and resign.

Maybe I’m misinformed, but as I understand it there was no wrongdoing on her part, only of her minister. Is there info I’m missing?

[Pericles]

Though away from National's troubles just for the moment, Labour's immigration minister has been axed by the PM after admitting a year long relationship with a staff member may have been an "abuse of power". As with the last government departure, swift action by Ardern might limit the damage.

From an objective nonpartisan perspective, Ardern sounds like she’s handling the situation exactly how someone should: take responsibility and hold folks accountable. What’s a better way to handle it?

To take her part of responsibility and resign.

Maybe I’m misinformed, but as I understand it there was no wrongdoing on her part, only of her minister. Is there info I’m missing?

Yeah, I don't see any reason why Jacinda Ardern should resign. She handled this pretty well, and tbh Collins did too (though she may have ignored the Falloon issue for a few days to avoid overshadowing some of her infrastructure announcements).

[CumbrianLefty]

Though away from National's troubles just for the moment, Labour's immigration minister has been axed by the PM after admitting a year long relationship with a staff member may have been an "abuse of power". As with the last government departure, swift action by Ardern might limit the damage.

From an objective nonpartisan perspective, Ardern sounds like she’s handling the situation exactly how someone should: take responsibility and hold folks accountable. What’s a better way to handle it?

To take her part of responsibility and resign.

Red hot take, sir.

[Polkergeist]

When Bridges was leader of National, he ruled out forming government with New Zealand First.

Has Collins retained this position?

[Pericles]

When Bridges was leader of National, he ruled out forming government with New Zealand First.

Has Collins retained this position?

Yes, she has.

On the latest poll, that isn't really relevant though. This is yet another shockingly good result for Labour.
Labour-60.9%
National-25.1%
Green-5.7%
ACT-3.3%
NZ First-2.0%

Preferred Prime Minister is Jacinda at 62% and 14.5% for Judith Collins.

[brucejoel99]

[The latest poll] is yet another shockingly good result for Labour.
Labour-60.9%
National-25.1%
Green-5.7%
ACT-3.3%
NZ First-2.0%

Preferred Prime Minister is Jacinda at 62% and 14.5% for Judith Collins.

Oh. my. god. Good lord, this is disastrous for National.

Y'know, democracy is a cruel mistress. Sometimes, the public rewards the villains instead of the heroes. This isn't one of those times. Collins & the backstabbing party of dirty tricks are getting exactly what they deserve.

[Polkergeist]

When Bridges was leader of National, he ruled out forming government with New Zealand First.

Has Collins retained this position?

Yes, she has.

On the latest poll, that isn't really relevant though. This is yet another shockingly good result for Labour.
Labour-60.9%
National-25.1%
Green-5.7%
ACT-3.3%
NZ First-2.0%

Preferred Prime Minister is Jacinda at 62% and 14.5% for Judith Collins.

Yes.... I am aware it is a hypothetical at this point

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I really wish we had a leader like Jacinda here in America. She's one of the best, if not the best, world leader right now (in my opinion).

NZ is lucky to have her. Hopefully, we can restore some decency here in America by electing Joe Biden in November.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On the one hand, when polls show leads of 'this meteorite will destroy all life on Earth' proportions they are nearly always massive exaggerations. On the other, well, such polling does tend to mean the only question is the scale of the landslide not whether it will happen or not.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

we, in America, need a leader who's going to call Jacinda and say "Girlfriend, you are so on" because we need to make America the best place for a kid to grow up. Right now it's NZ but we can change that.

[brucejoel99]

On the one hand, when polls show leads of 'this meteorite will destroy all life on Earth' proportions they are nearly always massive exaggerations. On the other, well, such polling does tend to mean the only question is the scale of the landslide not whether it will happen or not.

Yeah, this might be a one-off extreme low poll, & National could bounce back (a bit). Anything could happen on Election Day. A sudden economic "oh f**k!" event (on top of the current sh*tty economy), a 2nd wave, more scandals, etc. could easily see Labour crash down to the 40s-zone.

One thing's for certain: this is gonna get the political reporting, attack pieces, opinion section (aka attack pieces) flowing. Winston's probably gonna take it to 11 & throw everything that he can at the polling.

we, in America, need a leader who's going to call Jacinda and say "Girlfriend, you are so on" because we need to make America the best place for a kid to grow up. Right now it's NZ but we can change that.

We unfortunately lost our chance of that when Marianne willingly sacrificed herself for our sins

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Assuming ACT wins Epsom, here’s the seat calculation:

Labour 77
National 32
Greens 7
ACT 4

Labour needs 61 to govern alone. No party has gained a majority of seats in parliament since the introduction of MMP in the 1996 election.

[brucejoel99]

Assuming ACT wins Epsom, here’s the seat calculation:

Labour 77
National 32
Greens 7
ACT 4

Labour needs 61 to govern alone. No party has gained a majority of seats in parliament since the introduction of MMP in the 1996 election.

National currently has ~38 electorate MPs, so we may see some overhang &/or them not have any list MPs.

And Paul Goldsmith's gonna have to actually fight for Epsom to stay in, because losing it could push ACT out entirely.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Assuming ACT wins Epsom, here’s the seat calculation:

Labour 77
National 32
Greens 7
ACT 4

Labour needs 61 to govern alone. No party has gained a majority of seats in parliament since the introduction of MMP in the 1996 election.

National currently has ~38 electorate MPs, so we may see some overhang &/or them not have any list MPs.

And Paul Goldsmith's gonna have to actually fight for Epsom to stay in, because losing it could push ACT out entirely.

Given how poorly National is doing, I don’t expect overhangs to be an issue on their end. I think that Seymour should be fairly safe in Epsom for that reason as well.

I wouldn’t be shocked if National only get something like 3 or 4 list seats though.

[Pericles]

There were some other findings from the poll that were also really bad for National. Firstly, the issue of trust for the two main party leaders. The net trust ratings are as follows (link);
Jacinda Ardern +62.4%(79.4%-17.0%)
Judith Collins -18.9% (30.8%-49.7%)

That is brutal, and shows that Collins is by no means a perfect choice, bringing a lot of baggage to her new role. There's also this part of the article;

Ardern, when asked by Newshub if it's ever okay for a politician to lie, said, "No."

But Collins takes a different view on lying.

When asked the same question, Collins said, "I think it is occasionally going to be one of those things where you just can't tell everything about something."

She's totally out of step with voters on this in the latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll.

Voters were asked if it's ever okay for politicians to lie, and 86.3 percent said "no" while just 9.9 percent said "yes".

Bad move from Collins. Given Bill English got tripped up on that, she should have just lied that she doesn't think politicians should lie.

Side-note, Newshub being salty about National calling their poll a "rogue poll" is hilarious, I don't think "the constant lashing out at accurate scientific polling" is the cause of National's trust problems.

Here is the second finding, and this is perhaps even more damaging. On which party is most trusted to run the economy (link):
"A Labour-led government under Jacinda Ardern" 62.3%
"A National-led government under Judith Collins" 26.5%

This is absolutely devastating for National's election hopes. Their slogan is "Strong Team [lol] More Jobs, Better Economy". I was thinking they were arrogant to think people would just presume they're better at running the economy. National's main strategy seems to be announcing new roads.

[Polkergeist]

A bit of speculation about Greens aiming for Auckland Central

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/07/nz-election-2020-greens-throwing-everything-at-auckland-central-to-ensure-place-back-in-parliament.html

[EastAnglianLefty]

If current polling resembles the actual results, which electorate seats would National be likely to hold on to?

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, this might be a one-off extreme low poll, & National could bounce back (a bit). Anything could happen on Election Day. A sudden economic "oh f**k!" event (on top of the current sh*tty economy), a 2nd wave, more scandals, etc. could easily see Labour crash down to the 40s-zone.

One thing's for certain: this is gonna get the political reporting, attack pieces, opinion section (aka attack pieces) flowing. Winston's probably gonna take it to 11 & throw everything that he can at the polling.

Its nearly August, time for any major polling turnaround is fast running out now.

[Mike88]

Yeah, this might be a one-off extreme low poll, & National could bounce back (a bit). Anything could happen on Election Day. A sudden economic "oh f**k!" event (on top of the current sh*tty economy), a 2nd wave, more scandals, etc. could easily see Labour crash down to the 40s-zone.

One thing's for certain: this is gonna get the political reporting, attack pieces, opinion section (aka attack pieces) flowing. Winston's probably gonna take it to 11 & throw everything that he can at the polling.

Its nearly August, time for any major polling turnaround is fast running out now.

It's still possible, look what happened last year here in Portugal: the PS had leads of 17-20% over the PSD in the polls in early September/late August, but by election day they were polling ahead in single digits, 7-8%.

[Astatine]

Yeah, this might be a one-off extreme low poll, & National could bounce back (a bit). Anything could happen on Election Day. A sudden economic "oh f**k!" event (on top of the current sh*tty economy), a 2nd wave, more scandals, etc. could easily see Labour crash down to the 40s-zone.

One thing's for certain: this is gonna get the political reporting, attack pieces, opinion section (aka attack pieces) flowing. Winston's probably gonna take it to 11 & throw everything that he can at the polling.

Its nearly August, time for any major polling turnaround is fast running out now.

It's still possible, look what happened last year here in Portugal: the PS had leads of 17-20% over the PSD in the polls in early September/late August, but by election day they were polling ahead in single digits, 7-8%.

PSD was not in a complete state of disarray having had three different leaders in the last six months before the election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If current polling resembles the actual results, which electorate seats would National be likely to hold on to?

Current polling suggests a swing of about 21pts (!) so not many.

National seats with majorities over 40pts last time were Hunua (47.8), East Coast Bays (47.0), Selwyn (45.1), Rodney (43.9), Pakuranga (41.9), Taranaki-King Country (41.8), Tāmaki (40.7)

Those just under 40pts: Clutha-Southland (39.4), Waikato (38.6), Helensville (37.8), Botany (37.0).

Hunua has been abolished: most of it has gone to the new Port Waikato (which would presumably have a similarly mountainous notional lead), most of the rest to Papakura (which should consequentially be a bit 'safer'). Waikato is also significantly different, though the majority probably isn't hugely different.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean national could probably get up to the mid-30s by running a 'check on the labour govt' style campaign. This is what Corbyn's 2017 campaign (an obvious example) began as, and then it started paying big dividends after a majority of the country turned against Theresa May. This midterm-style campaign allows your voters to ignore what you are offering and instead focus more criticality on the governing party. The downside of course is that you are accepting that the governing party will retain the leavers of control. National is in no way able to build itself into an organization that can seriously push even with Labour this cycle, so it might be best to not even try.

So yeah, there are ways national can regain some dignity when campaigning gets serious. However, we are past the point of Labour losing their ability to form a government, be it majority or a Lab+Green coalition.

[Mike88]

Yeah, this might be a one-off extreme low poll, & National could bounce back (a bit). Anything could happen on Election Day. A sudden economic "oh f**k!" event (on top of the current sh*tty economy), a 2nd wave, more scandals, etc. could easily see Labour crash down to the 40s-zone.

One thing's for certain: this is gonna get the political reporting, attack pieces, opinion section (aka attack pieces) flowing. Winston's probably gonna take it to 11 & throw everything that he can at the polling.

Its nearly August, time for any major polling turnaround is fast running out now.

It's still possible, look what happened last year here in Portugal: the PS had leads of 17-20% over the PSD in the polls in early September/late August, but by election day they were polling ahead in single digits, 7-8%.

PSD was not in a complete state of disarray having had three different leaders in the last six months before the election.

True, however, and to not prolong a discussion about another country in this thread, the PSD had a leadership coup in January 2019 in which the leader survived but showed divisions in the party, a former PM and leader left the party to form his own party, and the party suffered in May their worst result ever in an election in democracy, plus a lot of stupid mistakes made them look silly. So the situation was a bit grim.

My point is, Jacinda will win but two months is a long time in politics. The National party can still recover part of its base and rise to around 34-35% and that seems not that difficult as this election seems it will be a very bipolarized one between Labour and National.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

A bit of speculation about Greens aiming for Auckland Central

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/07/nz-election-2020-greens-throwing-everything-at-auckland-central-to-ensure-place-back-in-parliament.html

If I were to amend my signature slightly, I would add that I support Swarbrick for the electorate vote in AC. At this point, I think that the Greens will still eke out 5% or more, but I think it will be close. (I’m thinking 5.5% or so.

[mileslunn]

Things will invariably tighten.  National Party has a strong base so I think odds are they get over 35% and my guess is they probably get in upper 30s.  Most elections National gets over 40% so just getting under 40% let alone under 30% is a bad showing.  Main question is does Labour get a majority on its own or have to rely on Greens.  Yes stranger things can happen but the gap is big enough that National winning outright seems unlikely.  Although if a swing similar to 2017 happened (note National had a 20 point lead at this point), it would be a lot closer.