2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[CumbrianLefty]

So what would replace the National Party if they completely collapse. I doubt that Labour would take all the gains. NZ First? ACT?

I doubt that will happen, even now.

There is about 25% who would vote NP with the proverbial dog with a rosette as its leader.

(same with the GOP, British Tories etc etc)

[crals]

What caused NZ First to collapse so hard as well? Was it a mistake to form a coalition with the left?

[Pericles]

Not another one-
First term National MP to retire due to scandal

Rangitata MP Andrew Falloon is quitting politics, after it seems that he sent "inappropriate material" of a pornographic nature to a university student (female, btw). Falloon and Collins offered up mental health as the explanation this afternoon (the above details came out afterwards). Falloon said he had "unresolved grief" from the past suicides of 3 friends which was brought up by the recent suicide of another friend. The details are murky at this stage, so it might get worse tomorrow.

[CumbrianLefty]

Blimmin heck, did they collectively walk under a ladder or something?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Just waiting for the scandal when it turns out their campaign chief has National down to win under 30 seats on PredictIt.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a chain of scandals. I mean, National were already dead in the water three months ago and yet, here we are. I wouldn’t put it beyond them to get under 30% at this rate. It’s just astonishing. At this rate, Maureen Pugh will be the leader. At least she’s so useless that she might not do anymore harm to the Nats.

[JerryArkansas]

Has there been another case of a major party imploding this badly before an election, save Greece? I know there's a few there but that's special circumstances.

[brucejoel99]

The best thing Labour can do right now is sit on their hands & let National do its own hole-digging. Short of something going very bad (like a further major COVID screw-up at the border leading to a recurrence of community spread), Labour is looking very good so far.

[Pericles]

Update;
Falloon has resigned from Parliament now, rather than just retiring which would have gotten him 5 more months of taxpayer-funded salary. It now appears that 3 women (so far) were sent inappropriate material by Falloon. Judith Collins basically said Falloon had lied to her, as he did not disclose additional incidents.

[Former President tack50]

Has there been another case of a major party imploding this badly before an election, save Greece? I know there's a few there but that's special circumstances.

Well, in Spain there is the infamous case of UCD in 1982 (much worse than National and on par with PASOK), though that was more of a gradual collapse throughout their entire 3 year term as the party gradually dissolved in a spiral of infighting. Though looking at the super old polling in Wikipedia it seems the collapse accelerated quite a bit in early 1982.

[Oryxslayer]

Has there been another case of a major party imploding this badly before an election, save Greece? I know there's a few there but that's special circumstances.

There is also an argument that since National is expecting a loss now, they have decided that it is time to clean up the place, toss out all the dirty laundry, and take the L so that they are better prepared for a future contest. Of course this assumes that there is a floor to their declining vote (probably, but where?) and that they have control of the situation on the inside, two things that are very much uncertain.

Earlier in this thread I noted that once everyone's Coronavirus bump faded, new issues would pop up that could push Jacinda under 50. Well, Corona is not the main thing on the governments plate (though I do think Jacinda is setting herself up to be dragged down to earth with these 'virus free' declarations) and new issues have arisen, but they are in Labour's favor rather than against it. By the time National sorts out it's house, the election will likely have concluded and they will be reduced to safe and list seats.

[Pericles]

I still think Judith Collins can prevent the bottom falling out of the National Party vote and she has a greater connection with the public than Bridges and Muller, perhaps a certain level of charisma (though she has plenty of baggage and is a divisive politician). The right-wing vote also has nowhere to go, except for ACT which can only peel off a few points at most.

On the Falloon scandal, he now has four accusers, and a police investigation into him has been reopened. It also seems that he lied to the police.

www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12349831

Winston Peters is going hard on the attack against Labour and the Greens, saying a Labour-Green government would be a "nightmare for NZ". This comes just days after he boasted about stopping "woke pixie dust" from them. He clearly wants to position himself as a handbrake on Labour and the Greens. It does sound a bit excessive some of the stuff he said, for instance saying that "I've been in this game a long time, and I've never had three years so difficult" and ""manage circumstances when you're surrounded by plain inexperience". If that's the case though, doesn't that tell people that his decision to go with Labour in 2017 was a mistake?

[CumbrianLefty]

Collins could end up in a similar situation to Mike Moore in 1990.

[brucejoel99]

www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12349831

Winston Peters is going hard on the attack against Labour and the Greens, saying a Labour-Green government would be a "nightmare for NZ". This comes just days after he boasted about stopping "woke pixie dust" from them. He clearly wants to position himself as a handbrake on Labour and the Greens. It does sound a bit excessive some of the stuff he said, for instance saying that "I've been in this game a long time, and I've never had three years so difficult" and ""manage circumstances when you're surrounded by plain inexperience". If that's the case though, doesn't that tell people that his decision to go with Labour in 2017 was a mistake?

A "nightmare for NZ First," Winston. Not NZ. Important distinction.

[crals]

Has there been another case of a major party imploding this badly before an election, save Greece? I know there's a few there but that's special circumstances.

The Canadian Progressive Conservatives going from a majority government to 2 seats in 1993

[JerryArkansas]

Has there been another case of a major party imploding this badly before an election, save Greece? I know there's a few there but that's special circumstances.

The Canadian Progressive Conservatives going from a majority government to 2 seats in 1993

I can't believe I forgot about them.  Oof

[Frodo]

The speed with which the Nationals have descended from NZ's "natural" (and indeed seemingly almost unassailable) party of government to little more than a rabble, is genuinely astonishing.

It's quite a step-down from its (relatively) halcyon days under Prime Minister John Philip Key.  Remind me, why did he stand down rather than run again in 2017?  Could he have won at least one more term if he had stayed like everyone was expecting him to?

[Pericles]

The speed with which the Nationals have descended from NZ's "natural" (and indeed seemingly almost unassailable) party of government to little more than a rabble, is genuinely astonishing.

It's quite a step-down from its (relatively) halcyon days under Prime Minister John Philip Key.  Remind me, why did he stand down rather than run again in 2017?  Could he have won at least one more term if he had stayed like everyone was expecting him to?

Probably, though he was becoming a bit less popular by the end. I think it was a quit while you're ahead situation, as he said at one point that he didn't want to outlast his welcome with the electorate. He'd had a pretty successful career in politics of course, being PM for 8 years.

[Pericles]

Now there is yet another scandal, this time with Labour. Jacinda Ardern just fired Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway (also Minister of Workplace Relations) for an "inappropriate relationship" with a former staffer, and he will be standing down too at this election. This comes after Judith Collins said yesterday that she received a complaint about a Labour minister, which she passed on to Jacinda. This is really ridiculous and frustrating, there have been so many scandals and Parliament needs to clean up its act.

[brucejoel99]

This election is so good. Is it always this spicy, or am I just paying more attention this time?

[Pericles]

This election is so good. Is it always this spicy, or am I just paying more attention this time?

This seems unusually spicy, though 2017 was also a really volatile and exciting race so it could be two crazy elections in a row. 2014 did have the Dirty Politics saga and Kim Dotcom taking a high profile. That culminated in the 'Moment of Truth' where Kim Dotcom, Glenn Greenwald, Edward Snowden and Julian Assange all accused the government of mass surveillance and tried to get people to vote against National. Predictably, that was a flop.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though away from National's troubles just for the moment, Labour's immigration minister has been axed by the PM after admitting a year long relationship with a staff member may have been an "abuse of power". As with the last government departure, swift action by Ardern might limit the damage.

[mileslunn]

Has there been another case of a major party imploding this badly before an election, save Greece? I know there's a few there but that's special circumstances.

Yes, Canada 1993.  The Progressive Conservatives entered the election with a slight lead in the polls, on election night fell to only 2 seats and never come back as they existed then although did in 2006 finally come back after merging with the Reform Party, so it has happened before.  Another was Liberals in Canada in 2011 who imploded pretty badly.  Ironically four years later they were able to bounce back and are now in government.

[catographer]

Though away from National's troubles just for the moment, Labour's immigration minister has been axed by the PM after admitting a year long relationship with a staff member may have been an "abuse of power". As with the last government departure, swift action by Ardern might limit the damage.

From an objective nonpartisan perspective, Ardern sounds like she’s handling the situation exactly how someone should: take responsibility and hold folks accountable. What’s a better way to handle it?

[mgop]

Though away from National's troubles just for the moment, Labour's immigration minister has been axed by the PM after admitting a year long relationship with a staff member may have been an "abuse of power". As with the last government departure, swift action by Ardern might limit the damage.

From an objective nonpartisan perspective, Ardern sounds like she’s handling the situation exactly how someone should: take responsibility and hold folks accountable. What’s a better way to handle it?

To take her part of responsibility and resign.