2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

If Ardern loses her Mount Albert electorate, something's gone horribly wrong for Labour.

Uh, yeah. She won’t lose her electorate. I assume New Frontier is talking about her (in effect Labour) winning enough for her to stay as PM. Unless the Greens go under 5% and National has a surge, I don’t see Ardern losing in September.

[Please delete this account. :)]

Yeah, National don't even seem to be trying at the moment. I think it's basically certain that Labour either gets a majority, or forms a coalition with the Greens, especially since we haven't defeated a first-term government since the 70s.

[Pericles]

Labour won Mount Albert in 2014 after all, an election where National beat Labour by 22 points in the party vote.

[DL]

WTF the National leader Muller just resigned effective immediately!

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

WTF the National leader Muller just resigned effective immediately!

He lasted 53 days.

Cracked up when I saw the headline that he was quitting. Although reading the article, apparently it’s for health reasons, so I hope that he does get better.

[Pericles]

This is crazy. The last thing National needs is another leadership contest.

[brucejoel99]

This has been a wild f**king ride.

Calling it, Nikki Kaye will be made the new leader in an attempt to create their own desperate version of Jacindamania.

[Pericles]

The National Party emergency caucus meeting starts in less than 3 hours, and MPs seem eager to resolve the leadership issue then and there. Judith Collins, Nikki Kaye and Simon Bridges are not ruling out leadership bids. There's a few other names going around too like Mark Mitchell, Paula Bennett, Amy Adams, and Gerry Brownlee, but these are unlikely.

It does appear Muller's resignation is related to mental health issues, and that he had a breakdown.

[Pericles]

A crazy new Roy Morgan poll came out today, done for the month of June.
Labour-54.5%
National-27.0%
Green-9.0%
ACT-5.0%
NZ First-1.5%

The even crazier thing is that the Labour margin has actually decreased slightly from their previous poll. To be fair, this pollster isn't very accurate and in particular overrates the Greens quite a bit, but whoever gets picked has an incredibly tough job ahead.

[Pericles]

Simon Bridges is not running according to a Newshub source. Might be wrong but that probably boosts Judith Collins (who knows what is going on in there though).

[Pericles]

Judith Collins has been elected National Party leader, with Gerry Brownlee as her deputy.

[CumbrianLefty]

It does appear Muller's resignation is related to mental health issues, and that he had a breakdown.

Well that is never nice to hear - I hope he gets better soon.

[warandwar]

Judith Collins has been elected National Party leader, with Gerry Brownlee as her deputy.

Both people who were brought in after Don Brash's two Orewa Speeches - Brownlee replaced the spokesperson on Maori affairs after Orewa I and Collins replaced the Social Welfare spokesperson after Orewa II. In both cases, the prior figure didn't support Brash's boomer pakeha politics.

[brucejoel99]

Jacindamania vs Collinsoscopy, let's go!

[DL]

Judith Collins has been elected National Party leader, with Gerry Brownlee as her deputy.

So what is the low-down on her as a leader? Would she be any more or less appealing than the guy who quit?

I presume parties in NZ pick their leaders by a simple caucus vote otherwise how could they choose someone that quickly. Is there any presssure on NZ parties to open up their leadership selection process to give card carrying members a say?

[libertpaulian]

Labour should sail to reelection.

[Pericles]

Labour should sail to reelection.

In a just world, for sure. And probably ours too. But I'm still nervous until Election Night September 19 (and maybe until two weeks later when all the special votes come in too).

[Pericles]

Two senior National MPs announced their retirements. Nikki Kaye, who just a few days ago was deputy leader, is retiring from politics. That also means her electorate probably won't be held by National. Also, Amy Adams is retiring. Her situation is absolutely ridiculous as she retired last year under Simon Bridges, then un-retired as soon as Muller was elected and now right after this leadership change she is re-retiring.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Two senior National MPs announced their retirements. Nikki Kaye, who just a few days ago was deputy leader, is retiring from politics. That also means her electorate probably won't be held by National. Also, Amy Adams is retiring. Her situation is absolutely ridiculous as she retired last year under Simon Bridges, then un-retired as soon as Muller was elected and now right after this leadership change she is re-retiring.

I don’t want to get off Mr National’s Wild Ride.

[CumbrianLefty]

The speed with which the Nationals have descended from NZ's "natural" (and indeed seemingly almost unassailable) party of government to little more than a rabble, is genuinely astonishing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The speed with which the Nationals have descended from NZ's "natural" (and indeed seemingly almost unassailable) party of government to little more than a rabble, is genuinely astonishing.

Another point against the default political analyst assumption that tomorrow will always and inevitably look exactly like today.

[brucejoel99]

Two senior National MPs announced their retirements. Nikki Kaye, who just a few days ago was deputy leader, is retiring from politics. That also means her electorate probably won't be held by National. Also, Amy Adams is retiring. Her situation is absolutely ridiculous as she retired last year under Simon Bridges, then un-retired as soon as Muller was elected and now right after this leadership change she is re-retiring.

Jesus, this is a full-on implosion at this point. I wonder how many more rats will manage to flee the sinking ship before the election.

[PSOL]

So what would replace the National Party if they completely collapse. I doubt that Labour would take all the gains. NZ First? ACT?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

What is really shocking to my American perspective is how close all of this is happening to the election. There’s just over 2 months until the election and seat candidates are still dropping out and getting replaced. Here, the ballots would probably already have been printed. This doesn’t really factor in to leadership changes though.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

So what would replace the National Party if they completely collapse. I doubt that Labour would take all the gains. NZ First? ACT?

I know that ACT has had better polling than they’ve had in the last decade or so. NZ First has been dropping like a rock and will likely not make it into parliament this election. They’re at something like 2%.