2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Pericles]

It looks like their meeting is still going, I'm not sure when we'll know who won.

[Pericles]

Todd Muller has been elected leader with Nikki Kaye as deputy.

[Pericles]

Todd Muller's leadership has already gotten off to a rocky start.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/national-mps-already-leaking-as-new-leadership-team-of-todd-muller-and-nikki-kaye-suffers-disastrous-first-sitting-day.html

In particular, deputy leader Nikki Kaye inaccurately saying that a frontbench MP was of Maori descent to rebut criticism over an all-white frontbench was a dumb move.

[Pericles]

That's pretty interesting, I hadn't heard of this poll earlier. It makes sense now that it's Roy Morgan, polls outside the big two (Colmar Brunton and Newshub Reid Research) don't get much attention. Roy Morgan polls traditionally do seem to have a larger minor party vote, in particular a Green Party vote, relative to other polls. It does seem like a good sign if National isn't increasing their support since Muller became leader. However I'm seeing that it has the field dates as 27 Apr–24 May 2020, the vast majority of that time was when Simon Bridges was leader and part of that was when National was in the middle of a messy leadership contest. So sadly it can't be proof that Muller-mentum is not a thing.

[Pericles]

Now we do seem to have some proof that Mullermania is not a thing. There is another leaked UMR poll, and these are the results:
Labour-54%
National-30%
NZ First-5%
Greens-4%

No numbers given for ACT.

Labour is down just 1 point and National up 1 point from the last leaked shock poll. The Greens and NZ First both lost a point. It is hard to give parliamentary seats without numbers for ACT, but it is certain that these numbers would result in an overall Labour majority. The one bright side for Muller is that he is on 13% for preferred Prime Minister, notably better than Simon Bridges' numbers. However, Jacinda Ardern remains on a whopping 65% for preferred Prime Minister.

UMR is of course Labour's internal pollster, but its numbers recently and in the past have matched with public polls. So the assumption now has to be that Labour retains a lead of over 20% over National (remember National was 7 points ahead of Labour in the 2017 election), and the governing parties remain above 60% (they got 50.36% combined in 2017). So a resounding win for the Labour Party, perhaps with an overall majority (which has not been achieved so far under MMP) remains likely.

[Pericles]

A new Colmar Brunton poll has been released. Here are the numbers
Labour: 50% (-9% on previous poll, +13% on 2017 election)
National: 38% (+9%, -6%)
Green: 6% (+1%, no change)
ACT: 3% (+1%, +2%)
NZ First: 2% (-1%, -5%)

Labour + Greens= 56% (-8%, +13%)
Labour + Greens + NZ First= 58% (-9%, +8%)
National + ACT= 41% (+10%, -4%)

On preferred Prime Minister it is Jacinda Ardern at 54% and Todd Muller at 13%. His approval rating is net +9% though, much better than Simon Bridges' -40% in the last poll. That point is probably part of the reason why National has surged, the other reason being the government's rally around the flag effect beginning to wear off. There has also been controversy about the border protection measures, as people have been let out of quarantine early on compassionate exemptions without getting tested, and people haven't been tested at the end of the 14 day isolation. It doesn't seem like there has been any actual spread into the community though and so the risk of going back up the alert levels is low.

[Pericles]

The Colmar Brunton poll results for the cannabis referendum were just released. Sadly, legalisation is narrowly down right now. It is 49% No, 40% Yes and 11% Don't Know.

[Pericles]

The National Party caucus is leaking again. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/06/national-party-s-internal-polling-revealed-as-caucus-springs-another-leak.html

Apparently their internal polling has them at 34% to Labour's 55%, when it was at 35% in their polls just before Simon Bridges was ousted. This is notably worse for them than the Colmar Brunton poll. Perhaps more importantly, it suggests the party is still deeply divided.

In related news, two National MPs in close succession-Anne Tolley and former deputy Paula Bennett announced they are retiring at this election. Bennett announced her decision on the same day as an economic speech from Todd Muller, so maybe that was deliberate on her part.

[Pericles]

The Colmar Brunton poll results for the cannabis referendum were just released. Sadly, legalisation is narrowly down right now. It is 49% No, 40% Yes and 11% Don't Know.

Great shame if that fails.

A proud recipient of the David Cameron Referendum Loser Award.

What was her reason for calling a referendum instead of passing it in parliament, anyway? Winston's opposition?

That is part of it. The reason the referendum is being held to begin with is because it was a Green Party policy. Labour only promised decriminalisation at the 2017 election.

[Pericles]

The Colmar Brunton poll results for the cannabis referendum were just released. Sadly, legalisation is narrowly down right now. It is 49% No, 40% Yes and 11% Don't Know.

Great shame if that fails.

A proud recipient of the David Cameron Referendum Loser Award.

What was her reason for calling a referendum instead of passing it in parliament, anyway? Winston's opposition?

That is part of it. The reason the referendum is being held to begin with is because it was a Green Party policy. Labour only promised decriminalisation at the 2017 election.

I feel like it'll inevitably come down to the government in the end anyway, regardless of the result. There's a lot of tax dollars to be made on legal weed, not to mention the savings on police spending, & given the current economic climate, it's gonna be needed.

I think a No vote would kill legalization for a few years. Unfortunately a Yes vote doesn't mean it's all done either. Again due to NZ First, the vote is just on a draft bill and the details need to be worked out by the next parliament. If Labour wins hopefully that will be done relatively smoothly, though there'll be some disputes about what exactly the Yes vote meant. A National win makes it more problematic. Simon Bridges hadn't committed to enacting a Yes vote at all but Muller has. However the National Party as a whole is strongly on the No side, so I expect that it would be watered down quite a lot and this could be seen as a betrayal of what people voted for.

[Pericles]

And Clark has resigned. Interesting to see what effect this will have on Labour. I think it'll be a positive to them, Clark was never particularly popular with their base anyway.

David Clark's resignation definitely helps (or more accurately, removes a bleeding liability for Labour). He's been toxic since his lockdown breaches, and him blaming beloved Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield for border botchups and taking no responsibility himself (while Bloomfield stood behind him) was a nail in the coffin.

He is staying in parliament it seems, and his Dunedin North electorate is safe-he got a majority of over 30% last time and Labour beat National by 20 points in the party vote there. This is especially the case given that the National Party was 7 points ahead of Labour in 2017, Labour is more likely to beat National by double digits this year. I pity the people of that electorate, the other candidate is National MP Michael Woodhouse who made up a story about a homeless man getting a free 14-day stay in managed isolation. Still, it will be interesting to see what the margin is, whether it swings against Clark or the nationwide swing gives him an even bigger majority.

[Pericles]

There is a new scandal with National MP for Clutha-Southland Hamish Walker having leaked the personal details of Covid-19 patients to the media. Former National Party President Michelle Boag is also implicated, she was the one who originally found the information and passed it onto Walker. This seems to have been some dumb plot to expose "shortcomings" in the government's response. Walker is already under fire for complaining about arrivals from India, Pakistan and Korea, which seemed pretty racist. Todd Muller has stripped Walker of his shadow portfolios in response. Health Minister Chris Hipkins had threatened criminal charges in response to the leak before the identities of the leakers were revealed. In extra irony, Walker's predecessor as Clutha-Southland MP was Todd Barclay who also ended up being plagued by scandal. This is bound to be unhelpful for the National Party.

[Pericles]

And Hamish Walker will not be standing at the coming election.

[Pericles]

Labour won Mount Albert in 2014 after all, an election where National beat Labour by 22 points in the party vote.

[Pericles]

This is crazy. The last thing National needs is another leadership contest.

[Pericles]

The National Party emergency caucus meeting starts in less than 3 hours, and MPs seem eager to resolve the leadership issue then and there. Judith Collins, Nikki Kaye and Simon Bridges are not ruling out leadership bids. There's a few other names going around too like Mark Mitchell, Paula Bennett, Amy Adams, and Gerry Brownlee, but these are unlikely.

It does appear Muller's resignation is related to mental health issues, and that he had a breakdown.

[Pericles]

A crazy new Roy Morgan poll came out today, done for the month of June.
Labour-54.5%
National-27.0%
Green-9.0%
ACT-5.0%
NZ First-1.5%

The even crazier thing is that the Labour margin has actually decreased slightly from their previous poll. To be fair, this pollster isn't very accurate and in particular overrates the Greens quite a bit, but whoever gets picked has an incredibly tough job ahead.

[Pericles]

Simon Bridges is not running according to a Newshub source. Might be wrong but that probably boosts Judith Collins (who knows what is going on in there though).

[Pericles]

Judith Collins has been elected National Party leader, with Gerry Brownlee as her deputy.

[Pericles]

Labour should sail to reelection.

In a just world, for sure. And probably ours too. But I'm still nervous until Election Night September 19 (and maybe until two weeks later when all the special votes come in too).

[Pericles]

Two senior National MPs announced their retirements. Nikki Kaye, who just a few days ago was deputy leader, is retiring from politics. That also means her electorate probably won't be held by National. Also, Amy Adams is retiring. Her situation is absolutely ridiculous as she retired last year under Simon Bridges, then un-retired as soon as Muller was elected and now right after this leadership change she is re-retiring.

[Pericles]

Not another one-
First term National MP to retire due to scandal

Rangitata MP Andrew Falloon is quitting politics, after it seems that he sent "inappropriate material" of a pornographic nature to a university student (female, btw). Falloon and Collins offered up mental health as the explanation this afternoon (the above details came out afterwards). Falloon said he had "unresolved grief" from the past suicides of 3 friends which was brought up by the recent suicide of another friend. The details are murky at this stage, so it might get worse tomorrow.

[Pericles]

Update;
Falloon has resigned from Parliament now, rather than just retiring which would have gotten him 5 more months of taxpayer-funded salary. It now appears that 3 women (so far) were sent inappropriate material by Falloon. Judith Collins basically said Falloon had lied to her, as he did not disclose additional incidents.

[Pericles]

I still think Judith Collins can prevent the bottom falling out of the National Party vote and she has a greater connection with the public than Bridges and Muller, perhaps a certain level of charisma (though she has plenty of baggage and is a divisive politician). The right-wing vote also has nowhere to go, except for ACT which can only peel off a few points at most.

On the Falloon scandal, he now has four accusers, and a police investigation into him has been reopened. It also seems that he lied to the police.

www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12349831

Winston Peters is going hard on the attack against Labour and the Greens, saying a Labour-Green government would be a "nightmare for NZ". This comes just days after he boasted about stopping "woke pixie dust" from them. He clearly wants to position himself as a handbrake on Labour and the Greens. It does sound a bit excessive some of the stuff he said, for instance saying that "I've been in this game a long time, and I've never had three years so difficult" and ""manage circumstances when you're surrounded by plain inexperience". If that's the case though, doesn't that tell people that his decision to go with Labour in 2017 was a mistake?

[Pericles]

The speed with which the Nationals have descended from NZ's "natural" (and indeed seemingly almost unassailable) party of government to little more than a rabble, is genuinely astonishing.

It's quite a step-down from its (relatively) halcyon days under Prime Minister John Philip Key.  Remind me, why did he stand down rather than run again in 2017?  Could he have won at least one more term if he had stayed like everyone was expecting him to?

Probably, though he was becoming a bit less popular by the end. I think it was a quit while you're ahead situation, as he said at one point that he didn't want to outlast his welcome with the electorate. He'd had a pretty successful career in politics of course, being PM for 8 years.