COVID-19 Mega thread

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's worse than either for the aforementioned reason of it affecting the entire country rather than being localized and being as incompetent, if not more. But the fact that Maria was considered Trump's Katrina at a time, and has gone on to be forgotten about, doesn't make me optimistic about this being what Americans finally wake up and choose to reject him about. It definitely could be, don't get me wrong, but at the very least he is not losing the 38-45% of the country's voters that he brainwashed.

[Gass3268]

Things are starting to slow down in South Korea. Almost everyone who has it knows they do and won’t be around anyone else until they’ve recovered. Schools are re-opening without a problem.

The outbreak started late last month and the US could follow the same trajectory.

Problem is they test in a day what we've tested in totality so far. I expect our trajectory to be more like Italy.

[Tekken_Guy]

Things are starting to slow down in South Korea. Almost everyone who has it knows they do and won’t be around anyone else until they’ve recovered. Schools are re-opening without a problem.

The outbreak started late last month and the US could follow the same trajectory.

Problem is they test in a day what we've tested in totality so far. I expect our trajectory to be more like Italy.

Why not just ramp up testing?

[GoTfan]

For those wanting math explained, and those doubting the severity of this situation, please read this whole article. It's long, but it explains things in easy to digest ways.

This whole thing has triggered a major flare-up in my anxiety and depression. I'm struggling to stay hpeful.

The article was written by the author of other noted classics in the field of epidemiology such as '8 Reasons Why Your Ad Attribution Approach Is Wrong' and 'What I Learned Building a Horoscope That Blew Up On Facebook'.

Anyway, if following this causing a major flare-up of serious mental health issues, then I would urge you to stop following this.

Yeah, here's the thing: stopping following something does not make it go away.

I've stopped going out of my house for really anything now.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

In terms of age groups, a 'normal' baseline distribution of age within the USA is illustrated from a Census conducted in 1960.



Back in 1960, not many people were alive after the age of 85. Seemingly, Americans were having lots of children.

In the year 2060, a much larger population of people will exist over the age of 80.

So are the Corona-virus and Influenza virus epidemics simply producing a higher mortality rate in older citizens because modern medicine is providing extra 'artificial' immunity for this age group?

Without the protection of modern medicine, would this age distribution chart have a similar 'shape'
in 2060 as evidenced in 1960?

Biology in action.

Here is a model from the University of Bern of the deaths from Corona-virus in the Chinese epidemic made on February 10 2020.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v1.full.pdf

This person(s) correctly predicted the drop in Chinese cases using a model developed from previous influenza viral pandemics. They correctly predicted that China would fade to almost nothing by the beginning of April 2020.

What does the actual field data look like?



Despite the inconsistency of the Chinese data set, and the fact that one is deaths and the other is cases (related by a proportionality constant called the mortality rate), this is an exceptionally good fit. This person also made predictions for mortality rates by age:



As a corollary, the active cases in the USA are, predictably, about to move in time through a mathematical curve with a positive skewed bell-distribution.

So where is the USA on this bell distribution curve?

Growth rate in the USA is about 350 new cases. Active cases now = 1,600.



From a mathematical perspective, the number of new people infected on that curve matched closely the formula from yesterday on the "up-slope" of this curve.

24 hours ago, a mathematical estimation of the number of new cases we would report today in the USA was not only possible, but quite accurate.

And it is therefore feasible that modelling can give a rough prediction as to:

(i) how many new cases you will have in total;
(ii) the "peak case" date;
(iii) the mortality rate in each age group;
(iv) when it will end.

Tomorrow, I will post up some modelling parameters and how to use them to learn about the pandemic.

[Badger]

Went to the grocery store just now and it was packed. Toilet paper was completely sold out.

[Badger]

The 40-45% of the country that is in the Trump cult will just blame the Dems/everyone but Trump. There is no hope for their kind.

[Ljube]

It will depend on the outcome.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

My boss is being tested for Covid-19 after having some bizarre symptoms after interacting with a biker who tested positive for it here thanks to BIKE WEEK

[Progressive Pessimist]

Went to the grocery store just now and it was packed. Toilet paper was completely sold out.

People are literally s****ing themselves in fear.

In all seriousness, I get why cleaning supplies are often sold out, but I will never understand why toilet paper is sold out all the time in events like this. Is it because people are fearing a quarantine?

[Badger]

Does anybody else find this thread gratuitous and gruesome?

Not to mention ghoulish, yes.

Seriously, it's one thing to soberly discuss population spreads and anticipated mortality rates, but quite another to enter a betting pool is to the number of deaths arising from a worldwide pandemic.

[Lourdes]

My dad texted me saying someone at his workplace tested positive today.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Things are starting to slow down in South Korea. Almost everyone who has it knows they do and won’t be around anyone else until they’ve recovered. Schools are re-opening without a problem.

The outbreak started late last month and the US could follow the same trajectory.

Problem is they test in a day what we've tested in totality so far. I expect our trajectory to be more like Italy.

Why not just ramp up testing?

I don’t know, we should all be asking the Donald that

[Bojack Horseman]

What makes me angriest about this whole thing is the wave of racism and xenophobia this has unleashed, particularly on the Chinese community. A Trump-loving former friend of mine from high school had this to say on the matter this morning:

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1238214465822371843?s=20

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1238214465822371843?s=20

Please cut down the size of your signature


Also, given that there are only 120k confirmed cases in the world, that figure seems a bit high, particularly given the experiences of high density countries like South Korea and China.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Went to the grocery store just now and it was packed. Toilet paper was completely sold out.

People are literally s****ing themselves in fear.

In all seriousness, I get why cleaning supplies are often sold out, but I will never understand why toilet paper is sold out all the time in events like this. Is it because people are fearing a quarantine?

Yeah mean neither, I don't even utilize toilet paper, bidets are better.

[kyc0705]

Does anyone else feel like this is, for lack of a better term, a massive sociocultural shift/moment, because of how it's impacting just about every facet of daily life in some way? As in, one of those events where we'll think about certain times around now in the future as "before COVID-19" and "after COVID-19"?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Please don't derail, folks.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Does anyone else feel like this is, for lack of a better term, a massive sociocultural shift/moment, because of how it's impacting just about every facet of daily life in some way? As in, one of those events where we'll think about certain times around now in the future as "before COVID-19" and "after COVID-19"?

Didn't the Apocalyptic-Survival-Horror film genre get you ready for this day?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmlYYbmRgMc

I always laughed at them, but the Montana Militia Doomsday Prepper Brigade actually don't look so stupid now.

[Badger]

Does anybody else find this thread gratuitous and gruesome?

Not to mention ghoulish, yes.

Seriously, it's one thing to soberly analyze population spreads and anticipated mortality rates, but quite another to enter a betting pool as to the number of deaths anticipated from an ongoing worldwide pandemic.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

At the end of the decade, we are going to be really embarrassed with how we began 2020.

[Torrain]

My dad texted me saying someone at his workplace tested positive today.

I’m sorry. Stay safe.

[Person Man]

Does anybody else find this thread gratuitous and gruesome?

Not to mention ghoulish, yes.

Seriously, it's one thing to soberly analyze population spreads and anticipated mortality rates, but quite another to enter a betting pool as to the number of deaths anticipated from an ongoing worldwide pandemic.

No worse than the typical Cold War discussion about it going hot.

[emailking]

Does anyone else feel like this is, for lack of a better term, a massive sociocultural shift/moment, because of how it's impacting just about every facet of daily life in some way? As in, one of those events where we'll think about certain times around now in the future as "before COVID-19" and "after COVID-19"?

I don't know. I mean, there used to be a before 9/11 and after 9/11, but I stopped thinking about the past that way a long time ago.