U.S. House Redistricting 2020: Nevada

[Joe Republic]

The special session just ended a few minutes ago.  It's done.

[Joe Republic]

Why don't Dems do something like this? Really a Reno - Las Vegas district really isn't terribly ugly, especially compared to a lot of the other districts we've seen this cycle.

It's not really about that.  Putting the two major cities together in the same district would not be a popular move.  Reno already feels overshadowed and ignored by Clark county, and the latter usually forgets anywhere else in the state even exists.  Forcing them together with a thin stretch of empty desert connecting them would be akin to putting, say, Houston and El Paso together.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why don't Dems do something like this? Really a Reno - Las Vegas district really isn't terribly ugly, especially compared to a lot of the other districts we've seen this cycle.

It's not really about that.  Putting the two major cities together in the same district would not be a popular move.  Reno already feels overshadowed and ignored by Clark county, and the latter usually forgets anywhere else in the state even exists.  Forcing them together with a thin stretch of empty desert connecting them would be akin to putting, say, Houston and El Paso together.

Could the resentments produced by putting them both in the same district spill over into congressional elections?

[Joe Republic]

Could the resentments produced by putting them both in the same district spill over into congressional elections?

I can't see things going over very well for folks in Reno, especially if the nominee for this district is from Las Vegas, which they likely would be.

Again, imagine if the people of El Paso want to elect a representative who understands the needs of far-flung west Texas, and instead they get somebody from a Houston suburb who maybe visits them three times a year?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Could the resentments produced by putting them both in the same district spill over into congressional elections?

I can't see things going over very well for folks in Reno, especially if the nominee for this district is from Las Vegas, which they likely would be.

Again, imagine if the people of El Paso want to elect a representative who understands the needs of far-flung west Texas, and instead they get somebody from a Houston suburb who maybe visits them three times a year?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cb817aa0-a51d-4cfb-a0df-b45610a1b80d
Would a seat like this pass muster? Only about 28% of the population is in Clark.

[Brittain33]

Could the resentments produced by putting them both in the same district spill over into congressional elections?

I can't see things going over very well for folks in Reno, especially if the nominee for this district is from Las Vegas, which they likely would be.

Again, imagine if the people of El Paso want to elect a representative who understands the needs of far-flung west Texas, and instead they get somebody from a Houston suburb who maybe visits them three times a year?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cb817aa0-a51d-4cfb-a0df-b45610a1b80d
Would a seat like this pass muster? Only about 28% of the population is in Clark.

I don't think this is something that can be negotiated by degree. I think people would get on a gut level that putting parts of Reno with parts of Clark County is just wrong when you can draw NV-2 like it is now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I seriously doubt that a Democrat in Reno would prefer to be represented by a Republican from Reno (or from the Northern Rurals) than by a Democrat from Clark. This kind of localism almost never trumps partisanship in practice.

[Brittain33]

I seriously doubt that a Democrat in Reno would prefer to be represented by a Republican from Reno (or from the Northern Rurals) than by a Democrat from Clark. This kind of localism almost never trumps partisanship in practice.

True, but why would you expect the perspective of a Democrat in Reno to prevail over the views of Republicans and Independents from Reno and from Democrats all over the state who don't want to rock the boat or look sleazy?

[GALeftist]

I seriously doubt that a Democrat in Reno would prefer to be represented by a Republican from Reno (or from the Northern Rurals) than by a Democrat from Clark. This kind of localism almost never trumps partisanship in practice.

True, but why would you expect the perspective of a Democrat in Reno to prevail over the views of Republicans and Independents from Reno and from Democrats all over the state who don't want to rock the boat or look sleazy?

Well, for one thing, Democrats constitute a plurality of voters in Reno and Democrats are in charge of the redistricting process. The thing about not looking sleazy is more persuasive, and in all likelihood the rationale, but I think it's misguided; the current map already looks pretty sleazy to the trained eye, and to the untrained eye, I'm not even sure that a Clark to Washoe district looks that much worse than a Clark to Lyon district. It doesn't even have to look super ugly aesthetically, basically just needs to look like it's a simple geometric shape along the California border to accomplish its goal.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think TML  said this, but it's possible Sisolak is not crazy about gerrymandering and might not sign something aggressive like Clark to Reno

[lfromnj]

I think TML  said this, but it's possible Sisolak is not crazy about gerrymandering and might not sign something aggressive like Clark to Reno

True didn't he veto the National Popular vote bill?

[Oryxslayer]

I think TML  said this, but it's possible Sisolak is not crazy about gerrymandering and might not sign something aggressive like Clark to Reno

True didn't he veto the National Popular vote bill?

That's different though. A swing state has zero potential benefit from the NPV compact, so why stick the neck out?

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/RileySnyder/status/1460765530118254596

[Antonio the Sixth]

Stupidest state Democratic party in this redistricting cycle so far.

[David Hume]

Stupidest state Democratic party in this redistricting cycle so far.

It seems to me they just give up 2022 since almost no chance for D to keep the House. But this map may give them 3 seats in 2024, which is not a bad deal.

The real threat is VRA. And if they lose the case, which in my opinion is likely, and if they lose the governorship, they need to negotiate with R for a fair map after 2022.

[GALeftist]

Stupidest state Democratic party in this redistricting cycle so far.

I agree that leaving Reno in the vote sink was dumb, but I saw people on Twitter comparing it to Arkansas 2010, which, like, come on, people, let's be realistic here. 3/4 seats are like Biden+7-8 in a state Biden won by 2.5ish. Unless the state is voting for the Republican by like 5 point (which isn't impossible but is definitely not the modal outcome) Democrats should be favored in all three of those districts.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Stupidest state Democratic party in this redistricting cycle so far.

I agree that leaving Reno in the vote sink was dumb, but I saw people on Twitter comparing it to Arkansas 2010, which, like, come on, people, let's be realistic here. 3/4 seats are like Biden+7-8 in a state Biden won by 2.5ish. Unless the state is voting for the Republican by like 5 point (which isn't impossible but is definitely not the modal outcome) Democrats should be favored in all three of those districts.

Regardless of the partisanship of these seats, diluting minority influence for partisan purposes is also generally Bad, Actually, regardless of whether or not Titus' seat was ever VRA-protected as such. Racial gerrymandering isn't any less heinous when the Dems do it, as some Bitecoferian types have cynically suggested.

[GALeftist]

Stupidest state Democratic party in this redistricting cycle so far.

I agree that leaving Reno in the vote sink was dumb, but I saw people on Twitter comparing it to Arkansas 2010, which, like, come on, people, let's be realistic here. 3/4 seats are like Biden+7-8 in a state Biden won by 2.5ish. Unless the state is voting for the Republican by like 5 point (which isn't impossible but is definitely not the modal outcome) Democrats should be favored in all three of those districts.

Regardless of the partisanship of these seats, diluting minority influence for partisan purposes is also generally Bad, Actually, regardless of whether or not Titus' seat was ever VRA-protected as such. Racial gerrymandering isn't any less heinous when the Dems do it, as some Bitecoferian types have cynically suggested.

Definitely agree with this. If they wanted three D-leaning seats so bad they should have just bitten the bullet and used Reno. I'm sympathetic to the unilateral disarmament argument obviously but racial gerrymandering is a bridge too far in my opinion. Anyway, my statement was intended to be descriptive rather than normative, it's not the same as Arkansas from a partisan perspective.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Stupidest state Democratic party in this redistricting cycle so far.

I agree that leaving Reno in the vote sink was dumb, but I saw people on Twitter comparing it to Arkansas 2010, which, like, come on, people, let's be realistic here. 3/4 seats are like Biden+7-8 in a state Biden won by 2.5ish. Unless the state is voting for the Republican by like 5 point (which isn't impossible but is definitely not the modal outcome) Democrats should be favored in all three of those districts.

Regardless of the partisanship of these seats, diluting minority influence for partisan purposes is also generally Bad, Actually, regardless of whether or not Titus' seat was ever VRA-protected as such. Racial gerrymandering isn't any less heinous when the Dems do it, as some Bitecoferian types have cynically suggested.

Yeah, exactly. This is the rare map that is actually worse, on nonpartisan grounds, than EITHER the most extreme Democratic or the Republican gerrymanders (since both of them probably at least keep most of Las Vegas contained within two districts and thus will have at least one be a Hispanic opportunity seat). The Reno-Clark connection and the 2D-2R plan that the GOP proposed are both more defensible CoI-wise.

[Meatball Ron]

Why did they make NV-02 so much less red? Was the thinking that Dems could get 4-0 in a really good year (feels unlikely)? Just feels like an inefficient use of GOP votes to unpack that district.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Stupidest state Democratic party in this redistricting cycle so far.

I agree that leaving Reno in the vote sink was dumb, but I saw people on Twitter comparing it to Arkansas 2010, which, like, come on, people, let's be realistic here. 3/4 seats are like Biden+7-8 in a state Biden won by 2.5ish. Unless the state is voting for the Republican by like 5 point (which isn't impossible but is definitely not the modal outcome) Democrats should be favored in all three of those districts.

Regardless of the partisanship of these seats, diluting minority influence for partisan purposes is also generally Bad, Actually, regardless of whether or not Titus' seat was ever VRA-protected as such. Racial gerrymandering isn't any less heinous when the Dems do it, as some Bitecoferian types have cynically suggested.

Yeah, exactly. This is the rare map that is actually worse, on nonpartisan grounds, than EITHER the most extreme Democratic or the Republican gerrymanders (since both of them probably at least keep most of Las Vegas contained within two districts and thus will have at least one be a Hispanic opportunity seat). The Reno-Clark connection and the 2D-2R plan that the GOP proposed are both more defensible CoI-wise.

This was my own map, though surely Horsford and Lee would never let it pass:



Most of Las Vegas itself is combined with Sunrise Manor and the most minority-heavy parts of Paradise and North Las Vegas in NV-01 (44% Hispanic VAP, Biden +27), while NV-04 (Biden +2) stretches a bit further southwest to Spring Valley and NV-03 (Biden +0.5) takes in whiter parts of Paradise. NV-02 (Trump +11) has no county splits, as in one of the earlier legislative proposals that was then mutilated for unknown reasons.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Stupidest state Democratic party in this redistricting cycle so far.

I agree that leaving Reno in the vote sink was dumb, but I saw people on Twitter comparing it to Arkansas 2010, which, like, come on, people, let's be realistic here. 3/4 seats are like Biden+7-8 in a state Biden won by 2.5ish. Unless the state is voting for the Republican by like 5 point (which isn't impossible but is definitely not the modal outcome) Democrats should be favored in all three of those districts.

Regardless of the partisanship of these seats, diluting minority influence for partisan purposes is also generally Bad, Actually, regardless of whether or not Titus' seat was ever VRA-protected as such. Racial gerrymandering isn't any less heinous when the Dems do it, as some Bitecoferian types have cynically suggested.

Yeah, exactly. This is the rare map that is actually worse, on nonpartisan grounds, than EITHER the most extreme Democratic or the Republican gerrymanders (since both of them probably at least keep most of Las Vegas contained within two districts and thus will have at least one be a Hispanic opportunity seat). The Reno-Clark connection and the 2D-2R plan that the GOP proposed are both more defensible CoI-wise.

This was my own map, though surely Horsford and Lee would never let it pass:



Most of Las Vegas itself is combined with Sunrise Manor and the most minority-heavy parts of Paradise and North Las Vegas in NV-01 (44% Hispanic VAP, Biden +27), while NV-04 (Biden +2) stretches a bit further southwest to Spring Valley and NV-03 (Biden +0.5) takes in whiter parts of Paradise. NV-02 (Trump +11) has no county splits, as in one of the earlier legislative proposals that was then mutilated for unknown reasons.

I don't really like this map tbh (the rurals split feels really artificial, and the two swingy districts are de-facto Lean R in a neutral years) but it's definitely better than what we got, can't argue with that.

Really, I guess the problem will not fully solved until Nevada gets a 5th seat and we can have a district properly anchored in Reno.

[Sol]

Stupidest state Democratic party in this redistricting cycle so far.

I agree that leaving Reno in the vote sink was dumb, but I saw people on Twitter comparing it to Arkansas 2010, which, like, come on, people, let's be realistic here. 3/4 seats are like Biden+7-8 in a state Biden won by 2.5ish. Unless the state is voting for the Republican by like 5 point (which isn't impossible but is definitely not the modal outcome) Democrats should be favored in all three of those districts.

Regardless of the partisanship of these seats, diluting minority influence for partisan purposes is also generally Bad, Actually, regardless of whether or not Titus' seat was ever VRA-protected as such. Racial gerrymandering isn't any less heinous when the Dems do it, as some Bitecoferian types have cynically suggested.

Yeah, exactly. This is the rare map that is actually worse, on nonpartisan grounds, than EITHER the most extreme Democratic or the Republican gerrymanders (since both of them probably at least keep most of Las Vegas contained within two districts and thus will have at least one be a Hispanic opportunity seat). The Reno-Clark connection and the 2D-2R plan that the GOP proposed are both more defensible CoI-wise.

This was my own map, though surely Horsford and Lee would never let it pass:



Most of Las Vegas itself is combined with Sunrise Manor and the most minority-heavy parts of Paradise and North Las Vegas in NV-01 (44% Hispanic VAP, Biden +27), while NV-04 (Biden +2) stretches a bit further southwest to Spring Valley and NV-03 (Biden +0.5) takes in whiter parts of Paradise. NV-02 (Trump +11) has no county splits, as in one of the earlier legislative proposals that was then mutilated for unknown reasons.

I don't really like this map tbh (the rurals split feels really artificial, and the two swingy districts are de-facto Lean R in a neutral years) but it's definitely better than what we got, can't argue with that.

Really, I guess the problem will not fully solved until Nevada gets a 5th seat and we can have a district properly anchored in Reno.

I'm curious what rural split you'd prefer--it's hard to draw anything radically different from what she made in the center of the state.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Stupidest state Democratic party in this redistricting cycle so far.

I agree that leaving Reno in the vote sink was dumb, but I saw people on Twitter comparing it to Arkansas 2010, which, like, come on, people, let's be realistic here. 3/4 seats are like Biden+7-8 in a state Biden won by 2.5ish. Unless the state is voting for the Republican by like 5 point (which isn't impossible but is definitely not the modal outcome) Democrats should be favored in all three of those districts.

Regardless of the partisanship of these seats, diluting minority influence for partisan purposes is also generally Bad, Actually, regardless of whether or not Titus' seat was ever VRA-protected as such. Racial gerrymandering isn't any less heinous when the Dems do it, as some Bitecoferian types have cynically suggested.

Yeah, exactly. This is the rare map that is actually worse, on nonpartisan grounds, than EITHER the most extreme Democratic or the Republican gerrymanders (since both of them probably at least keep most of Las Vegas contained within two districts and thus will have at least one be a Hispanic opportunity seat). The Reno-Clark connection and the 2D-2R plan that the GOP proposed are both more defensible CoI-wise.

This was my own map, though surely Horsford and Lee would never let it pass:



Most of Las Vegas itself is combined with Sunrise Manor and the most minority-heavy parts of Paradise and North Las Vegas in NV-01 (44% Hispanic VAP, Biden +27), while NV-04 (Biden +2) stretches a bit further southwest to Spring Valley and NV-03 (Biden +0.5) takes in whiter parts of Paradise. NV-02 (Trump +11) has no county splits, as in one of the earlier legislative proposals that was then mutilated for unknown reasons.

I don't really like this map tbh (the rurals split feels really artificial, and the two swingy districts are de-facto Lean R in a neutral years) but it's definitely better than what we got, can't argue with that.

Really, I guess the problem will not fully solved until Nevada gets a 5th seat and we can have a district properly anchored in Reno.

What would a less "artificial" split of the rurals entail, short of a Reno snake and a rural pack? This is, as I said, the neatest configuration possible without county splits.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll just bite the bullet and say that I think a Reno snake and rural pack is the fairest configuration we can have with the current number of districts. The Rurals are a natural CoI that is about right for one district. Reno + parts of Clark would not be a natural CoI of course, but neither is Reno + Northern rurals, and I don't think it should be preferred just because it looks neater. I'd go with the option that minimized the Bad CoI districts - in the current map that's basically all 4, in yours it would be 2 or 3 our of 4, while in the Reno snake option it would be just 1.