U.S. House Redistricting 2020: Nevada

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I made a fair, compact map with no county splits besides the obvious Clark.


https://davesredistricting.org/join/75ee5e27-afaa-4a3e-bda6-d19daf7b887b

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's a NV map that's road contiguous (barely). Wonder if Dems will try for a map like this that connects Reno with Las Vegas. This would be Clarke county county be split 4 ways. This map holds up on any DRA dataset; the closest Republicans come to winning any district is Attorney Gen 2018 where they come within 9 points of NV-4.

In 2020, this map is:

NV-1: Biden + 18.29
NV-2: Trump + 24.34
NV-3: Biden + 11.13
NV-4: Biden + 13.53

According to my calculations, on average Ds would win about 2.7 districts and Rs 1.3, giving the map a D + 26.37 bias

Not completely safe but these seats should generally be pretty solid. It's hard to see Republicans outright winning the Las Vegas metro area (Clarke County) anytime soon.

Despite Dem's massive geography advantage in the state, creating a true R pack is surprisingly difficult with only 4 districts; guess it really only works on maps with more districts. This is because the R pack has to take in swing suburbs in Henderson, NW Las Vegas, and around Reno/Carson City area

[Devils30]

Here's a NV map that's road contiguous (barely). Wonder if Dems will try for a map like this that connects Reno with Las Vegas. This would be Clarke county county be split 4 ways. This map holds up on any DRA dataset; the closest Republicans come to winning any district is Attorney Gen 2018 where they come within 9 points of NV-4.

In 2020, this map is:

NV-1: Biden + 18.29
NV-2: Trump + 24.34
NV-3: Biden + 11.13
NV-4: Biden + 13.53

According to my calculations, on average Ds would win about 2.7 districts and Rs 1.3, giving the map a D + 26.37 bias

Not completely safe but these seats should generally be pretty solid. It's hard to see Republicans outright winning the Las Vegas metro area (Clarke County) anytime soon.

Despite Dem's massive geography advantage in the state, creating a true R pack is surprisingly difficult with only 4 districts; guess it really only works on maps with more districts. This is because the R pack has to take in swing suburbs in Henderson, NW Las Vegas, and around Reno/Carson City area

Dems need to push for something like this. No mercy with gerrymanders period.

[I’m not Stu]

This map is slightly more favorable to Democrats than the current map. Does it draw out any Las Vegas incumbents?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This map is slightly more favorable to Democrats than the current map. Does it draw out any Las Vegas incumbents?

I think embedded districts like that are illegal in NV

[I’m not Stu]

This map is slightly more favorable to Democrats than the current map. Does it draw out any Las Vegas incumbents?

I think embedded districts like that are illegal in NV

Really? The 1990s map had an embedded district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This map is slightly more favorable to Democrats than the current map. Does it draw out any Las Vegas incumbents?

I think embedded districts like that are illegal in NV

I don't think I've ever heard of such a law existing in NV.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trump won 22 districts, and Biden won 20. Sisolak also won only 20.
It took very surgical line-drawing to produce this.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/09f5352e-5327-4c7c-a3a0-a12ac5376013

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I made a fair, compact map with no county splits besides the obvious Clark. ]

Updated my map with the prison pop adj data. Still no county splits except for Clark.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/75ee5e27-afaa-4a3e-bda6-d19daf7b887b

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1458129018545315851?s=20

[Gass3268]

Have to imagine Titus isn't going to be happy.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1458129018545315851?s=20

Bruh I really wish Dems would've done a leg into Reno. This map has huge dummymander potential and doesn't create a very effective R pack.

[Roll Roons]

Ok, this map really could end up as 4-0 in a Republican wave year.

[Skill and Chance]

This map is playing with fire.  All you have to do is apply the VA/NJ swing and this is a Republican sweep next year.  On top of that, Las Vegas trended right in 2020 and they stranded left trending Reno in the GOP vote sink.    

Strategically, they should just pass a commission (with strong competitiveness/partisan balance criterion) while they still have control.  NV looks pretty gone in the long run like a lot of the old small state Dem machines.

[Devils30]

This map is playing with fire.  All you have to do is apply the VA/NJ swing and this is a Republican sweep next year.  On top of that, Las Vegas trended right in 2020 and they stranded left trending Reno in the GOP vote sink.    

Strategically, they should just pass a commission (with strong competitiveness/partisan balance criterion) while they still have control.  NV looks pretty gone in the long run like a lot of the old small state Dem machines.

NV is 45% white, it's only gone for Ds if they start crapping in the bed even worse with Hispanics. If they level-off the recent decline there it could potentially swing back a bit left.

[Minnesota Mike]

Is this an official proposal or just some dudes map?

[Stuart98]

Is this an official proposal or just some dudes map?

Official
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1458130863250558983

[GALeftist]

Lame. Get Reno out of the vote sink.

[Stuart98]

Yes, the people demand the Reno Extractor.





No risk of a VRA vote dilution lawsuit either; 1st is more hispanic than on the current map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

These maps do not really have exceptional dummymander potential. Sure, every map in every state has dummymander potential. That's not special.
This map should reliably result in a 3D-1R delegation.

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/AlexODiazNV/status/1458156056278822915?s=20

There's some serious pushback

[Minnesota Mike]

These maps do not really have exceptional dummymander potential. Sure, every map in every state has dummymander potential. That's not special.
This map should reliably result in a 3D-1R delegation.

Sure Republicans could win any of the "Democratic seats" in a wave but Democrats would be f**cked regardless if there is a red wave that big. You can't draw 218 safe Democratic seats, sometimes you need to accept a little bit of risk.

[CookieDamage]

NV-1 remains a safe, plurality hispanic district. Susie Lee's district is shored up significantly, and I've added Reno to Horsford's district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

These maps do not really have exceptional dummymander potential. Sure, every map in every state has dummymander potential. That's not special.
This map should reliably result in a 3D-1R delegation.

Sure Republicans could win any of the "Democratic seats" in a wave but Democrats would be f**cked regardless if there is a red wave that big. You can't draw 218 safe Democratic seats, sometimes you need to accept a little bit of risk.

Exactly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh my f**king God what is this mess

This utterly fails both as a gerrymander and as a fair map. Wow.