2020 New York Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

There will be two different plans for everything released today because the commission apparently can't agree on anything and has divided along partisan lines. Makes the eventual legislative takeover of the process even easier.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/bern_hogan/status/1438189993428725767?s=20

GOP map goes cuts up NY-19, fortifies Tenney, and tries to draw out Maloney, Souzzi, and I think someone else using the Hasidim?

Dem plan fortifies these, can't see NY-11 changes. Draws out Katko with the explicit aim of Brindisi comback, Cuts Tenney, and makes the open NY-01 more dem. Also I think there is a progressive pack in brooklyn for AOC?

[Nyvin]

Looks like the Democrats drew 3 R sinks in upstate instead of 2.

Broome to Ulster to Schenectady makes for kind of a weird district though.

[Oryxslayer]

Dem Cong Plan





Brindisi replaces Katko.



AOC gets "drawn out" to the degree that drawn out means her district no longer has any of the progressive regions along the west of long island. Honestly she might have better odds primarying Maloney.

[S019]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/504abbe1-01c2-45c4-8561-ff6f5d6d7fa4 D plan imported to DRA by using the csv file

[Oryxslayer]

That's a more dem NY-11, not sure what % though.



NY-02 is exhumed of any overwhelming democratic towns, and NY-01 slides to the left.



Delgado's district should be more dem, but also changes a bit. Also Tonko is outside his house seat.

[Stuart98]

Bipartisan commissions don't work folks.

(There's a distinction to be made here between bipartisan commissions and non-partisan commissions, which have flaws but seem to be more effective)

These maps are going nowhere.

[Oryxslayer]

Bipartisan commissions don't work folks.

(There's a distinction to be made here between bipartisan commissions and non-partisan commissions, which have flaws but seem to be more effective)

These maps are going nowhere.

Yep, and if anything comes of them, its that the Dem plans will get picked up and refined by the legislature.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/504abbe1-01c2-45c4-8561-ff6f5d6d7fa4 D plan imported to DRA by using the csv file

Unfortunately this barely helps us, because DRA has no modern NY data, which is of course cause the state of NY has stupid data management procedures and not repository of precinct info.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What an utterly garbage map, in all respects.

[Tintrlvr]

That's a more dem NY-11, not sure what % though.

Not by much, honestly. This was a pretty lazy attempt if it was supposed to be a gerrymander.

[Oryxslayer]

Republican map for those that are wondering. Fairly clear upstate cracking of NY-19 to preserve their  incumbents and draw out one of 17/18.

Downstate though is arguably much more interesting on this proposal which will never be acted upon.



There's a AOC progressive pack, and NY-04 is redrawn into this sprawling Hasidim-suburb republican seat. Manhattan is drawn north-south BTW.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Besides anything else, it is remarkable that they somehow managed to only draw a single seat with a clear Hispanic majority (the one in the Bronx). The northern Manhattan-Bronx one is technically majority Hispanic also, but only a bare majority with 50.5%.

That is despite NY increasing from 17.6% Hispanic up to 19.3% Hispanic.

(talking about the supposedly "dem" map)

[OBD]

Disgusting stuff! Excited for the legislature to get the REAL WORK done!

[Torie]

Both versions appear to be miserable fails at first glance. They don't even make a whole lot of sense from a partisan perspective, and may have some VRA violation potential (not sure about that one yet). Whatever these crazies finally adopt will  of course be going to court, and we will find out the hack quotient of the NYS highest court.

[Tintrlvr]

Anyway, the fact that these are the commission plans should put to rest any belief that the redistricting standards in the state constitution mean anything at all. Obviously neither plan makes any serious attempt to comply with concepts like being reasonably compact or favoring communities of interest.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wait, GOP actually submitted a plan that gerrymanders out Democrats?  That takes a lot of cajones. 

What is the net result of this?  The two sides disagree and Dem supermajority in the legislature draws an extremely gerrymandered congressional map?  (hopefully)

[Oryxslayer]

Wait, GOP actually submitted a plan that gerrymanders out Democrats?  That takes a lot of cajones. 

What is the net result of this?  The two sides disagree and Dem supermajority in the legislature draws an extremely gerrymandered congressional map?  (hopefully)

The end result of this is the legislature breaking the impasse in the commission and picking up the pen, to what extent we have yet to know.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tried a map of upstate NY. This is on that weird 2012/16 Pres composite data, but overall Biden did in between Obama and Clinton in upstate NY so it probably more or less cancels out. The hardest part was probably as you got closer to the city because the political geography gets really weird, hence why district 9 has the weird little tail. There's really no reason Dems can't go 23-3 (1 R seat in LI)

[Non Swing Voter]

Tried a map of upstate NY. This is on that weird 2012/16 Pres composite data, but overall Biden did in between Obama and Clinton in upstate NY so it probably more or less cancels out. The hardest part was probably as you got closer to the city because the political geography gets really weird, hence why district 9 has the weird little tail. There's really no reason Dems can't go 23-3 (1 R seat in LI)

GOP loses 5 seats on that map right?  Wish we could get rid of Stefanik from the delegation but netting that many seats is nice.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tried a map of upstate NY. This is on that weird 2012/16 Pres composite data, but overall Biden did in between Obama and Clinton in upstate NY so it probably more or less cancels out. The hardest part was probably as you got closer to the city because the political geography gets really weird, hence why district 9 has the weird little tail. There's really no reason Dems can't go 23-3 (1 R seat in LI)

GOP loses 5 seats on that map right?  Wish we could get rid of Stefanik from the delegation but netting that many seats is nice.

An R seat would be cut, let's call that NY-27, NY-23, NY-22, NY-1, and NY-11 are all flipped to Dems, NY-19 becomes safer for Dems, and Katko gets a harder NY-24

[Non Swing Voter]

Tried a map of upstate NY. This is on that weird 2012/16 Pres composite data, but overall Biden did in between Obama and Clinton in upstate NY so it probably more or less cancels out. The hardest part was probably as you got closer to the city because the political geography gets really weird, hence why district 9 has the weird little tail. There's really no reason Dems can't go 23-3 (1 R seat in LI)

GOP loses 5 seats on that map right?  Wish we could get rid of Stefanik from the delegation but netting that many seats is nice.

An R seat would be cut, let's call that NY-27, NY-23, NY-22, NY-1, and NY-11 are all flipped to Dems, NY-19 becomes safer for Dems, and Katko gets a harder NY-24

This seems like a no brainer.  If Dems don't do this + extreme gerrymandering in IL + MD + NM + press the commissions/courts in places like CA/VA/CO then they deserve to lose the house.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tried a map of upstate NY. This is on that weird 2012/16 Pres composite data, but overall Biden did in between Obama and Clinton in upstate NY so it probably more or less cancels out. The hardest part was probably as you got closer to the city because the political geography gets really weird, hence why district 9 has the weird little tail. There's really no reason Dems can't go 23-3 (1 R seat in LI)

GOP loses 5 seats on that map right?  Wish we could get rid of Stefanik from the delegation but netting that many seats is nice.

An R seat would be cut, let's call that NY-27, NY-23, NY-22, NY-1, and NY-11 are all flipped to Dems, NY-19 becomes safer for Dems, and Katko gets a harder NY-24

This seems like a no brainer.  If Dems don't do this + extreme gerrymandering in IL + MD + NM + press the commissions/courts in places like CA/VA/CO then they deserve to lose the house.

I kinda hope both sides will somehow find a way to mutally agree not to do extreme gerrymanders, but stuff sorta like the IN map

[Tintrlvr]

Tried a map of upstate NY. This is on that weird 2012/16 Pres composite data, but overall Biden did in between Obama and Clinton in upstate NY so it probably more or less cancels out. The hardest part was probably as you got closer to the city because the political geography gets really weird, hence why district 9 has the weird little tail. There's really no reason Dems can't go 23-3 (1 R seat in LI)

GOP loses 5 seats on that map right?  Wish we could get rid of Stefanik from the delegation but netting that many seats is nice.

For what it's worth, Stefanik lives in district 7 on that map, and I'm not sure she'd be able to beat Tenney in the primary for district 6; they're fairly evenly matched in terms of territory (a lot of the district is new to both of them, and I think population-wise it's about even in terms of what comes from each of their districts), but Tenney can out-crazy her.

[Non Swing Voter]

Tried a map of upstate NY. This is on that weird 2012/16 Pres composite data, but overall Biden did in between Obama and Clinton in upstate NY so it probably more or less cancels out. The hardest part was probably as you got closer to the city because the political geography gets really weird, hence why district 9 has the weird little tail. There's really no reason Dems can't go 23-3 (1 R seat in LI)

GOP loses 5 seats on that map right?  Wish we could get rid of Stefanik from the delegation but netting that many seats is nice.

For what it's worth, Stefanik lives in district 7 on that map, and I'm not sure she'd be able to beat Tenney in the primary for district 6; they're fairly evenly matched in terms of territory (a lot of the district is new to both of them, and I think population-wise it's about even in terms of what comes from each of their districts), but Tenney can out-crazy her.

Interesting.  I suppose she could move if there's a rule that she has to be in the district.

I think the big issue is that Stefanik is way higher profile and the GOP (and probably Trump) would get behind her in a primary.

[Torie]

No congressperson anywhere needs to live in the district. States may not impose their on qualifications to serve in federal office.