2020 New York Redistricting

[BoiseBoy]

Democrats on the commission are pushing for a Democrat-favored plan and have supposedly stopped negotiating with the Republican members.

https://twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1473809553808670724?s=21

[BoiseBoy]

Democrats respond:

https://twitter.com/DanClarkReports/status/1473829731732758529?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Who could have forseen a breakdown and a punt back to the Dem trifecta....

[vileplume]

I had a go at drawing fair maps of the New York State Legislature and I'm pretty happy with the final result.

In both maps I prioritised minimal splitting of counties and municipalities, drawing minority-opportunity districts where sensible to draw them and keeping districts at minimum somewhat compact.

Here's the Senate:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9e55d2b6-dec9-434e-adf5-b8df8f0cb7c6

The states for this map are as follows:
Proportionality:100
Splitting:91
Compactness:66
Minority:82
Competitiveness:35

Tump only won a measly 15/63 (~23.8%) of the districts in this map (2,4,5,18,21,22,42,48,49,50,51,55,56,60,62) but many of the Biden districts upstate and on Long Island were close.

Images in case the link doesn't work:

[vileplume]

And the Assembly:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e0312f18-9a51-419f-96e7-3cfc19a32e58

Stats for this Map:
Proportionality:100
Splitting:89
Compactness:73
Minority:83
Competitiveness:22

Trump won 43/150 districts in this map (~28.7%) which is coincidentally exactly the number that the GOP currently holds in the chamber. This is higher than in the Senate, but there are proportionally less competitive marginally Biden districts than there are there.

Images in case the link doesn't work:

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Personally I don't expect a 23-3 map; it requires a lot of messing around with NY-25 and NY-26 and a lot of ugly lines which I can't see the entire caucus agreeing to. A 22-4 map, on the other hand, is very feasible and is probably what I'd bet on, since weird lines need to be drawn in the east for good incumbent protection anyway and two flips downstate don't really disadvantage any incumbents. Here's what I hope the map might look like:






(I know more about NY than PA, but still not that much, so it's possible I've done something very wrong here. Also don't pay too much attention to the NYC lines, I attempted to keep the districts basically similar but it's very possible that I double bunked incumbents or something. All the upstate Democrats definitely live in their districts though.)

Anyways, this map was drawn to mostly minimize county and town chops, except in Long Island, where the lack of political geography makes that basically impossible. Rochester and Buffalo get their own Safe D seats in exchange for an additional R pack upstate. All blue districts are Biden+10 or more: the least blue district is Delgado's new (and substantially changed, it now goes from his home in Rhinebeck out to Binghamton) 19th at Biden+10.2. Malliotakis is probably doomed in her new Biden+13 seat that goes up to Cobble Hill, and the new Biden+11 NY-01 should be an layup in most years for the Democrats. Katko's NY-24 gets fed all of Tompkins to make the district Biden+15; if he still wins, especially with Trump doing his utmost to keep him from doing so, he's honestly earned the seat. Other districts of note are Sean Patrick Maloney's NY-18, which goes from his home in Cold Spring up to take in the city of Albany and Paul Tonko's NY-20, which takes in much of the rest of Albany County and goes up to his home in Amsterdam and all the way up to Plattsburgh. This map also holds up for 2016, although a few districts are within 3 points.

Thoughts?

Do you have the DRA link for this?

[Torie]

It looks like NYS is headed for an interesting lawsuit. I assume the Pubs are busy drafting it up for prompt filing, and a stay of the primary date if need be ala NC.

[GALeftist]

Do you have the DRA link for this?

Yep! Here it is. I cleaned it up a bit.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1476731839234691073?s=20

NY continues it's slow march towards the D-mander.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1476731839234691073?s=20

NY continues it's slow march towards the D-mander.

IIRC there is no constitutional process for when the commission fails to agree on a map? The redistricting amendment put up last November was supposed to establish that, but it failed. So what happens now?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1476731839234691073?s=20

NY continues it's slow march towards the D-mander.

IIRC there is no constitutional process for when the commission fails to agree on a map? The redistricting amendment put up last November was supposed to establish that, but it failed. So what happens now?

I think either a 2/3rds vote in the state legislature or some judge. A judge drew their current map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1476731839234691073?s=20

NY continues it's slow march towards the D-mander.

IIRC there is no constitutional process for when the commission fails to agree on a map? The redistricting amendment put up last November was supposed to establish that, but it failed. So what happens now?

I think either a 2/3rds vote in the state legislature or some judge.

I would not be surprised if that was what was required.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1476731839234691073?s=20

NY continues it's slow march towards the D-mander.

IIRC there is no constitutional process for when the commission fails to agree on a map? The redistricting amendment put up last November was supposed to establish that, but it failed. So what happens now?

I think either a 2/3rds vote in the state legislature or some judge. A judge drew their current map.

Either way, it is worth noting that a hard gerrymander is gonna be extremely difficult to pull off here. Democrats just barely have 2/3rd majority in the Senate and I'm sure some people will have parochial concerns stopping them from going all in. Worth noting before Dems on this thread get their hopes up.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1476731839234691073?s=20

NY continues it's slow march towards the D-mander.

IIRC there is no constitutional process for when the commission fails to agree on a map? The redistricting amendment put up last November was supposed to establish that, but it failed. So what happens now?

I think either a 2/3rds vote in the state legislature or some judge. A judge drew their current map.

Either way, it is worth noting that a hard gerrymander is gonna be extremely difficult to pull off here. Democrats just barely have 2/3rd majority in the Senate and I'm sure some people will have parochial concerns stopping them from going all in. Worth noting before Dems on this thread get their hopes up.

Ehh, yes and no.  I think we’ll definitely get a Democratic Staten Island seat b/c most Dems don’t really care about its parochial concerns.  Long Island shouldn’t be a problem and I imagine most Long Island Dems want a Democratic house seat where they have a shot at advancing rather than getting washed away in the 2022 wave (Zeldin’s seat probably becomes Dem-leaning).  

No one from downstate is gonna care how upstate feels about being carved up and I imagine most upstate Dems are going to want House seats that give them (or their allies/patrons/etc) a shot at advancement.  

The real issue is that the ripple effects of a strong gerrymander may cause NYC/downstate folks to get cranky.  IIRC Jamaal Bowman already implied months ago that he has no intention of being a team player with this and while I doubt he has all that much pull in the legislature on his own, other NYC Dems definitely do and there’s no way he’s going to be the only problem child in the delegation with respect to redistricting.  

Also, Delgado has a top-tier A-list opponent and definitely needs to be shored up which is fine as long as it is done efficiently.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1476731839234691073?s=20

NY continues it's slow march towards the D-mander.

IIRC there is no constitutional process for when the commission fails to agree on a map? The redistricting amendment put up last November was supposed to establish that, but it failed. So what happens now?

I think either a 2/3rds vote in the state legislature or some judge. A judge drew their current map.

Either way, it is worth noting that a hard gerrymander is gonna be extremely difficult to pull off here. Democrats just barely have 2/3rd majority in the Senate and I'm sure some people will have parochial concerns stopping them from going all in. Worth noting before Dems on this thread get their hopes up.

Ehh, yes and no.  I think we’ll definitely get a Democratic Staten Island seat b/c most Dems don’t really care about its parochial concerns.  Long Island shouldn’t be a problem and I imagine most Long Island Dems want a Democratic house seat where they have a shot at advancing rather than getting washed away in the 2022 wave (Zeldin’s seat probably becomes Dem-leaning).  

No one from downstate is gonna care how upstate feels about being carved up and I imagine most upstate Dems are going to want House seats that give them (or their allies/patrons/etc) a shot at advancement.  

The real issue is that the ripple effects of a strong gerrymander may cause NYC/downstate folks to get cranky.  IIRC Jamaal Bowman already implied months ago that he has no intention of being a team player with this and while I doubt he has all that much pull in the legislature on his own, other NYC Dems definitely do and there’s no way he’s going to be the only problem child in the delegation with respect to redistricting.  

Also, Delgado has a top-tier A-list opponent and definitely needs to be shored up which is fine as long as it is done efficiently.

Mondaire Jones and Tonko could be problems because their seats have to get redder if we want to shore up Delgado and Maloney

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1476731839234691073?s=20

NY continues it's slow march towards the D-mander.

IIRC there is no constitutional process for when the commission fails to agree on a map? The redistricting amendment put up last November was supposed to establish that, but it failed. So what happens now?

I think either a 2/3rds vote in the state legislature or some judge. A judge drew their current map.

Either way, it is worth noting that a hard gerrymander is gonna be extremely difficult to pull off here. Democrats just barely have 2/3rd majority in the Senate and I'm sure some people will have parochial concerns stopping them from going all in. Worth noting before Dems on this thread get their hopes up.

Ehh, yes and no.  I think we’ll definitely get a Democratic Staten Island seat b/c most Dems don’t really care about its parochial concerns.  Long Island shouldn’t be a problem and I imagine most Long Island Dems want a Democratic house seat where they have a shot at advancing rather than getting washed away in the 2022 wave (Zeldin’s seat probably becomes Dem-leaning).  

No one from downstate is gonna care how upstate feels about being carved up and I imagine most upstate Dems are going to want House seats that give them (or their allies/patrons/etc) a shot at advancement.  

The real issue is that the ripple effects of a strong gerrymander may cause NYC/downstate folks to get cranky.  IIRC Jamaal Bowman already implied months ago that he has no intention of being a team player with this and while I doubt he has all that much pull in the legislature on his own, other NYC Dems definitely do and there’s no way he’s going to be the only problem child in the delegation with respect to redistricting.  

Also, Delgado has a top-tier A-list opponent and definitely needs to be shored up which is fine as long as it is done efficiently.

Mondaire Jones and Tonko could be problems because their seats have to get redder if we want to shore up Delgado and Maloney

Delgado may be out of luck, but Maloney can be shored up by snaking Bowman’s district up to take in problematic parts of Rockland and Orange.  That way Maloney can shed the problematic Orange precincts and Jones the problematic Rockland areas.  Maloney can take in more Dem areas of Westchester and Jones can pick up some upper Bronx precincts.

[Torie]

I would be surprised if the Dems do something extreme assuming that the high court in NYS will be far more hackish than the Ohio high court when it comes to interpreting what the words "unduly" mean. I assume that the Dems are watching what happens in FL and OH, which have the some "unduly" stricture. They certainly should be.

[kwabbit]

I would be surprised if the Dems do something extreme assuming that the high court in NYS will be far more hackish than the Ohio high court when it comes to interpreting what the words "unduly" mean. I assume that the Dems are watching what happens in FL and OH, which have the some "unduly" stricture. They certainly should be.

Is there any precedent for a Dem court striking down its party's gerrymander? There is certainly a different attitude from Red and Blue avs on the forum about gerrymandering. In my experience, Democrats often justify gerrymandering as a moral imperative to counter Republican gerrymandering and ensure that extremist Republican policies are not instituted. Republican justification is more "because we can". This makes me think that a Dem court is much more likely to uphold a gerrymander if a similar situation arises to Ohio.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1476731839234691073?s=20

NY continues it's slow march towards the D-mander.

IIRC there is no constitutional process for when the commission fails to agree on a map? The redistricting amendment put up last November was supposed to establish that, but it failed. So what happens now?

I think either a 2/3rds vote in the state legislature or some judge. A judge drew their current map.

Either way, it is worth noting that a hard gerrymander is gonna be extremely difficult to pull off here. Democrats just barely have 2/3rd majority in the Senate and I'm sure some people will have parochial concerns stopping them from going all in. Worth noting before Dems on this thread get their hopes up.

Ehh, yes and no.  I think we’ll definitely get a Democratic Staten Island seat b/c most Dems don’t really care about its parochial concerns.  Long Island shouldn’t be a problem and I imagine most Long Island Dems want a Democratic house seat where they have a shot at advancing rather than getting washed away in the 2022 wave (Zeldin’s seat probably becomes Dem-leaning).  

No one from downstate is gonna care how upstate feels about being carved up and I imagine most upstate Dems are going to want House seats that give them (or their allies/patrons/etc) a shot at advancement.  

The real issue is that the ripple effects of a strong gerrymander may cause NYC/downstate folks to get cranky.  IIRC Jamaal Bowman already implied months ago that he has no intention of being a team player with this and while I doubt he has all that much pull in the legislature on his own, other NYC Dems definitely do and there’s no way he’s going to be the only problem child in the delegation with respect to redistricting.  

Also, Delgado has a top-tier A-list opponent and definitely needs to be shored up which is fine as long as it is done efficiently.

NY Gerrymandering is basically 4 seperate entities:

1. NY-11/Staten Island
2. Long Island
3. Central NY/Hudson Valley/Albany
4. Buffalo/Rochester/Syracuse/Ithaca

Firstly, as stated above, NY-11 is probably the easiest to deal with. There's not really any parochial or VRA concerns, and it generally doesn't screw around with the rest of the map too much. It's literally just making the conscious decision to attach Staten Island to a bluer part of Brooklyn than currently.

As for Long Island, I highly doubt the NY Dems will try to make both NY-1 and NY-2 blue as frankly there's no easy way to do it that isn't objectively horrendous and causes other issues. Even just making NY-1 a Biden seat isn't easy, but lucky for Dems Suozzi's retirement means they can mess around with NY-3 a bit, not that it really has votes to give, but they can push it South. It looks ugly but it doesn't cause any parochial concerns, so whether or not Dems do this is literally whether they have the votes to draw the lines in the first place.

When it comes to Buffalo/Rochester/Syracuse Dems have 2 options. Either to keep the current configuration while making NY-24 into a seat that Katko would have trouble winning in by connecting it to Ithaca rather than red Wayne County. NY-26 and 25 stay as is. The second option is to try and create 4 D seats between the 3 cities which would involve the dreaded Rochester-Buffalo snake. 26 has votes to give but 25 really doesn't, so 25 would likely be forced to become less Rochester centric and reach down into Ithaca. This really comes down to whether they have the votes to wield the pen and whether Higgins and Morelle, especially Higgins, are ok with it. It's also possible they try to do something in between I guess which makes 3 D seats based around the cities and then a swing seat with leftovers but that seems unlikely as geography makes that tricky and it'd probably end up looking even worse.

Then finally is Central NY which is probably the messiest. Unfortunately for Bowman, it's inevitable his seat is going to have to shift Northwards assuming the seat cut is a rural R seat upstate which is most likely considering all the upstate seats are severely underpopulated. While NY-20 doesn't really have many votes to give, it isn't severely underpopulated unlike most upstate seats, and all it really has to do is shift Northwards slightly to take in Glens falls while shedding Montgomery County. It could then give whichever seat ends up below it scraps of Albany. NY-19 can take in Binghamton and/or Utica since it's going to have to shift north anyways, it's really about ensuring Delgado doesn't lose Ulster County to Maloney. Then it becomes a matter of what you do with Maloney which is tricky; his seat will probably have to rotate a bit to move Northwards but also hold onto Poughkeepsie and everything South along the Hudson. This is definitely the weirdest region of the state as no one is going to be entirely happy, and just due to population shifts the seats are going to have to dramatically change anyways; there's no way to keep the current config.

But anyways, overall, I'm expecting like a 22 Biden-4 Trump map or so, with NY-11 and NY-1 becoming Biden seats and Dems shoring up upstate and cutting a rural R seat without trying to create a new D seat. 21-5 also seems pretty realistic. However, there's a good chance this map yields 6 R seats in 2022 depending upon how aggressively they shore up people like Delgado

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What does a "least change" map look like in this context?

[Torie]

I would be surprised if the Dems do something extreme assuming that the high court in NYS will be far more hackish than the Ohio high court when it comes to interpreting what the words "unduly" mean. I assume that the Dems are watching what happens in FL and OH, which have the some "unduly" stricture. They certainly should be.

Is there any precedent for a Dem court striking down its party's gerrymander? There is certainly a different attitude from Red and Blue avs on the forum about gerrymandering. In my experience, Democrats often justify gerrymandering as a moral imperative to counter Republican gerrymandering and ensure that extremist Republican policies are not instituted. Republican justification is more "because we can". This makes me think that a Dem court is much more likely to uphold a gerrymander if a similar situation arises to Ohio.

The "not unduly favor" a particular party requirement is in the Constitution of both states, and it cannot just be blown off on the premise that screwing a party out of seats through twisting the law into a pretzel is justified because that party is demonic. In my opinion, if lines fail to hew to neutral redistricting principles and under any reasonable evaluation deprives a party of its fair share of seats in the state, you instantly have a real problem under the "unduly favor" standard. I look forward if a high court goes there, to parse just what recipe it used to make the pretzel. In the meantime, I suspect the Dems are really sweating this one out, as to how fat they can go, assuming they otherwise have the two thirds vote, which itself is an not obvious.

If anything remotely close to what is being hypothesized here is done by the Dems because they secure their two thirds vote, there will be the mother of all lawsuits, particularly if under the same language the OH high court tanks the Pub map.

[If my soul was made of stone]

The best Asian seat I could draw in Nassau/Queens while remaining reasonably compact:



48.4% Asian VAP, Biden +26. This makes drawing the rest of Nassau a bit ugly, however.

[Oryxslayer]

The best Asian seat I could draw in Nassau/Queens while remaining reasonably compact:



48.4% Asian VAP, Biden +26. This makes drawing the rest of Nassau a bit ugly, however.

Would maintaining the arm up towards Astoria clean things up, or maybe dropping the whites along the north shore.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/543265da-88d8-4369-8c80-28c131885afa
Thoughts on this map?

[If my soul was made of stone]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/543265da-88d8-4369-8c80-28c131885afa
Thoughts on this map?

-I prefer to maintain a north-south split of Long Island, which necessitates splitting Brookhaven (though that's actually an asset here because it dilutes the GOP raw votes coming out of there).
-It's an asset in a Dem gerry, but for COI reasons I would keep the whitest parts of Hempstead with the rest of Nassau separate from the most minority-heavy parts which go with the Rockaways, JFK, etc.
-Ulster and Orange can go together whole, with a parallel seat stretching up the Hudson from Dutchess.
-I don't see the utility of the three-way split of Oneida. None of the Dem votes there are worth drawing tendrils outwards for.
-For COI purposes, I'd rather make up Monroe's deficit with a chunk of Wayne or Ontario than Genesee.