2020 New York Redistricting

[MaxQue]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

One can only hope; the existing map is a piece of crap!

Why do you think the current map is bad? If you have actual reasoning, I’m more than willing to hear it out.

Until there is a national ban on gerrymandering (which I strongly support) any New York congressional map that isn’t a strong Democratic gerrymander is awful.  Anyway, beyond that, I genuinely believe the 2022 NY redistricting case was wrongly decided (thankfully, that decision has been effectively reversed).  So I take issue with it being imposed at all even beyond partisan considerations.    I’d also argue that it is a soft-Republican gerrymander rather than a fair map which is pretty ridiculous to have for New York.

The New York State Counstition has proviosons banning gerrymandering; if it's outrageous for the republican to subvert those provions in Ohio and Utath why is it ok for democrats to do in New York ?

Utah I will grant you,  but the Ohio map turned out alright for Democrats and has now been locked in. They would have 3 seats in a full gerrymander perhaps 2 if OH Rs went full Illinois D or NC R.

Realistically the fight came down to whether restrictions on partisan gerrymandering placed an affirmative obligation for proportionality or partisan fairness. I think that's ambigious and it's worth noting the current NY map was not drawn to do so. The proportionality was almost accidental. It has 20 seats more D than the nation and in 2020 probably would have gone something like 19-7 and 21-5 in 2018.

For Ohio, it's locked in for 2 elections, so it stop being locked-in after this year elections.

[patzer]

Was thinking of the matter of the hypothetical Brooklyn Asian district and I wondered, why not a Queens-Nassau Asian district too? In this map, both the 4th and the 6th would be over 40% Asian. 1st is Biden+10 and 3rd is Biden+19.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a3dca293-e5fc-4fce-ab53-aaf34678fdd4

Asians form over 10% of the population of New York so proportionally one would have expected there to be three Asian-access districts.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Was thinking of the matter of the hypothetical Brooklyn Asian district and I wondered, why not a Queens-Nassau Asian district too? In this map, both the 4th and the 6th would be over 40% Asian. 1st is Biden+10 and 3rd is Biden+19.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a3dca293-e5fc-4fce-ab53-aaf34678fdd4

Asians form over 10% of the population of New York so proportionally one would have expected there to be three Asian-access districts.

9 might have too many liberal whites to be black functioning.

What’s the partisanship of 10? - looks like it could be a bit iffy for Dems, but not a bad district in terms of COI

Splitting Hempstead township 4 ways just feels wrong.

[Sol]

Was thinking of the matter of the hypothetical Brooklyn Asian district and I wondered, why not a Queens-Nassau Asian district too? In this map, both the 4th and the 6th would be over 40% Asian. 1st is Biden+10 and 3rd is Biden+19.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a3dca293-e5fc-4fce-ab53-aaf34678fdd4

Asians form over 10% of the population of New York so proportionally one would have expected there to be three Asian-access districts.

Demographically those three districts are all quite heavily Asian-American, but Asian as a label encompasses a lot of very distinct groups. 4 and 10 are more heavily Chinese, but 6 is very diverse, with large Chinese, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, and Guyanese communities. Those areas may not necessarily feel the need to be included in one Asian access district if they have different political interests and establishments.

For whatever reason New Yorkers also seem to have a really intense negative reaction to crossing the Long Island-NYC line, which is something I don't really get but seems to be the case. I proposed a similar double dip into Nassau but it was not so well received.

[patzer]

9 might have too many liberal whites to be black functioning.

It's 47% black VAP, 33% white, and 14% Hispanic, which should be enough

What’s the partisanship of 10? - looks like it could be a bit iffy for Dems, but not a bad district in terms of COI

Clinton +24, Biden +18. 42% white VAP and 34% Asian.

Splitting Hempstead township 4 ways just feels wrong.

I was prioritizing the gerrymander over keeping townships intact!

Demographically those three districts are all quite heavily Asian-American, but Asian as a label encompasses a lot of very distinct groups. 4 and 10 are more heavily Chinese, but 6 is very diverse, with large Chinese, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi communities. Those areas may not necessarily feel the need to be included in one Asian access district if they have different political interests and establishments.

And I suppose here we see the disadvantage of DRA not separating between more specific groups.

For whatever reason New Yorkers also seem to have a really intense negative reaction to crossing the Long Island-NYC line, which is something I don't really get but seems to be the case. I proposed a similar double dip into Nassau but it was not so well received.

Given that Long Island is only entitled to 3.76 districts, it's necessary to cross that line somewhere of course, but I can see how going from 4 primarily Long Island based districts to only 3 might be something not everyone would be happy with.

[Sol]

9 might have too many liberal whites to be black functioning.

It's 47% black VAP, 33% white, and 14% Hispanic, which should be enough

What’s the partisanship of 10? - looks like it could be a bit iffy for Dems, but not a bad district in terms of COI

Clinton +24, Biden +18. 42% white VAP and 34% Asian.

Splitting Hempstead township 4 ways just feels wrong.

I was prioritizing the gerrymander over keeping townships intact!

Demographically those three districts are all quite heavily Asian-American, but Asian as a label encompasses a lot of very distinct groups. 4 and 10 are more heavily Chinese, but 6 is very diverse, with large Chinese, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi communities. Those areas may not necessarily feel the need to be included in one Asian access district if they have different political interests and establishments.

And I suppose here we see the disadvantage of DRA not separating between more specific groups.

For whatever reason New Yorkers also seem to have a really intense negative reaction to crossing the Long Island-NYC line, which is something I don't really get but seems to be the case. I proposed a similar double dip into Nassau but it was not so well received.

Given that Long Island is only entitled to 3.76 districts, it's necessary to cross that line somewhere of course, but I can see how going from 4 primarily Long Island based districts to only 3 might be something not everyone would be happy with.

This is my personal favorite configuration for Long Island; NY-04 here is only plurality Black (39% Black, 31% White, and 23% Latino) but almost certainly would be performing since white voters here are fairly Republican. This lets you put the rest of predominantly Black areas in SW Queens in with Jeffries's district, which has the knock-on effect of allowing for a Black influence coalition district in Brooklyn in addition to NY-09 and NY-08.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

9 might have too many liberal whites to be black functioning.

It's 47% black VAP, 33% white, and 14% Hispanic, which should be enough

What’s the partisanship of 10? - looks like it could be a bit iffy for Dems, but not a bad district in terms of COI

Clinton +24, Biden +18. 42% white VAP and 34% Asian.

Splitting Hempstead township 4 ways just feels wrong.

I was prioritizing the gerrymander over keeping townships intact!

Demographically those three districts are all quite heavily Asian-American, but Asian as a label encompasses a lot of very distinct groups. 4 and 10 are more heavily Chinese, but 6 is very diverse, with large Chinese, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi communities. Those areas may not necessarily feel the need to be included in one Asian access district if they have different political interests and establishments.

And I suppose here we see the disadvantage of DRA not separating between more specific groups.

For whatever reason New Yorkers also seem to have a really intense negative reaction to crossing the Long Island-NYC line, which is something I don't really get but seems to be the case. I proposed a similar double dip into Nassau but it was not so well received.

Given that Long Island is only entitled to 3.76 districts, it's necessary to cross that line somewhere of course, but I can see how going from 4 primarily Long Island based districts to only 3 might be something not everyone would be happy with.

This is my personal favorite configuration for Long Island; NY-04 here is only plurality Black (39% Black, 31% White, and 23% Latino) but almost certainly would be performing since white voters here are fairly Republican. This lets you put the rest of predominantly Black areas in SW Queens in with Jeffries's district, which has the knock-on effect of allowing for a Black influence coalition district in Brooklyn in addition to NY-09 and NY-08.

Nice.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1748853274642465247

[progressive85]

Any updates on this map?  How long are they going to wait for this?  People need to get campaigns started, especially if the map is very different than it was before.

Any one of us could draw this map on Dave's Redistricting site in the next hour and it would probably be a better map than the one they're eventually going to choose.

[Oryxslayer]

Any updates on this map?  How long are they going to wait for this?  People need to get campaigns started, especially if the map is very different than it was before.

Any one of us could draw this map on Dave's Redistricting site in the next hour and it would probably be a better map than the one they're eventually going to choose.

Four potential reasons to delay. Avoiding Public Comment by doing it all in the last few days is the most 'acceptable' of potential reasons. The second is the Dems have a variety of plans, and are waiting for the results from the NY-03 special - cause they can do that in the timeframe - to pick one. The third is that the commission has no intention of going to work whatsoever, to immediately legislature punt, and will release a statement to that effect soon-ish. The fourth is taking a page from the GOP playbook and waiting until the last minute on everything so there is no chance of the map not being used in 2024.

[progressive85]

Any updates on this map?  How long are they going to wait for this?  People need to get campaigns started, especially if the map is very different than it was before.

Any one of us could draw this map on Dave's Redistricting site in the next hour and it would probably be a better map than the one they're eventually going to choose.

Four potential reasons to delay. Avoiding Public Comment by doing it all in the last few days is the most 'acceptable' of potential reasons. The second is the Dems have a variety of plans, and are waiting for the results from the NY-03 special - cause they can do that in the timeframe - to pick one. The third is that the commission has no intention of going to work whatsoever, to immediately legislature punt, and will release a statement to that effect soon-ish. The fourth is taking a page from the GOP playbook and waiting until the last minute on everything so there is no chance of the map not being used in 2024.

ah I c, thank u

[SilverStar]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1754633932358783393

[Oryxslayer]

Finally, action! Also, the surest sign that the Dems wanted to see the result of NY-03 before doing anything of significance.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1757146252616061387?s=20

https://twitter.com/poozer87/status/1757152917121839219?t=HmBUnpOYVnrloUVYItBpFQ...

And this suggests shenanigans of some sort, or a expectation that there will once more be a tued vote from the body.


But given the legislature can override it, will any of it matter?

[Atlas Force]

So how will Suozzi get shored up in the redraw?

[kwabbit]

So how will Suozzi get shored up in the redraw?

The current config in Long Island is quite favorable to Republicans. In my default LI setup, Garbarino would just get more of Massapequa and NY-03 would be pushed to Biden +13.

That is if the Dems are ok with 2-2. If they want 3-1 it will be tougher.

[patzer]

So how will Suozzi get shored up in the redraw?

The current config in Long Island is quite favorable to Republicans. In my default LI setup, Garbarino would just get more of Massapequa and NY-03 would be pushed to Biden +13.

That is if the Dems are ok with 2-2. If they want 3-1 it will be tougher.

The map I posted at the top of this page knocks the Republicans down to one Long Island seat and shores up Suozzi, but I doubt the commission would go for changes as major as that.

[Farmlands]

Is there anything stopping the Democratic legislature from doing the same thing they tried to in 2022, now that they have a favorable Supreme Court, by just rejecting the commission's map? Because if not, I can't see why they wouldn't take that route.

[Devils30]

So how will Suozzi get shored up in the redraw?

The current config in Long Island is quite favorable to Republicans. In my default LI setup, Garbarino would just get more of Massapequa and NY-03 would be pushed to Biden +13.

That is if the Dems are ok with 2-2. If they want 3-1 it will be tougher.

Wonder if the court will allow Dems to do something like this:

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::214627af-cca0-43b7-a38e-2f1965568dee

1: Takes in some of the bluer parts of current NY-2
2: Takes in Massapequa and becomes a GOP sink
3: Shores up Suozzi a bit, becomes 2026 proof
4: Similar to current version, DeEsposito in trouble regardless
11: Takes in lower Manhattan instead of the old 2022 version with Park Slope. Dems less likely to get a problematic squad type in primary with this configuration.
17: Bye bye Lawler
18: Shores up Ryan by a few points
19: Probably won't happen but sliding part of Albany into this would finish Molinaro
20: Ideally Tonko would take a redder district because as an incumbent he is 100% safe.
22: Most variations have it getting Syracuse, Utica. Some slightly bluer.
 

[Spectator]

So how will Suozzi get shored up in the redraw?

The current config in Long Island is quite favorable to Republicans. In my default LI setup, Garbarino would just get more of Massapequa and NY-03 would be pushed to Biden +13.

That is if the Dems are ok with 2-2. If they want 3-1 it will be tougher.

3-1 Dem on Long Island is possible with all three Dem seats being at least Biden +14. Really not that hard.

[Dan the Roman]

Is there anything stopping the Democratic legislature from doing the same thing they tried to in 2022, now that they have a favorable Supreme Court, by just rejecting the commission's map? Because if not, I can't see why they wouldn't take that route.

1. Procedure. We now know they have to ping-pong a bit.

2. Bare majorities. Democrats cannot afford to lose a single vote in the Senate, and 2 in the Assembly. And there are no legislative maps to hold over recalcitrant members, and there are enough Orthodox Jews sitting in Trump seats to sink any remap.

In short, this guy can sink any map

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simcha_Felder

[Devils30]

Is there anything stopping the Democratic legislature from doing the same thing they tried to in 2022, now that they have a favorable Supreme Court, by just rejecting the commission's map? Because if not, I can't see why they wouldn't take that route.

1. Procedure. We now know they have to ping-pong a bit.

2. Bare majorities. Democrats cannot afford to lose a single vote in the Senate, and 2 in the Assembly. And there are no legislative maps to hold over recalcitrant members, and there are enough Orthodox Jews sitting in Trump seats to sink any remap.

In short, this guy can sink any map

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simcha_Felder

What about making NY-11 an Orthodox Jewish GOP sink district in exchange for 1,17,19,22 getting much bluer?

[Tekken_Guy]

Is there anything stopping the Democratic legislature from doing the same thing they tried to in 2022, now that they have a favorable Supreme Court, by just rejecting the commission's map? Because if not, I can't see why they wouldn't take that route.

1. Procedure. We now know they have to ping-pong a bit.

2. Bare majorities. Democrats cannot afford to lose a single vote in the Senate, and 2 in the Assembly. And there are no legislative maps to hold over recalcitrant members, and there are enough Orthodox Jews sitting in Trump seats to sink any remap.

In short, this guy can sink any map

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simcha_Felder

What about making NY-11 an Orthodox Jewish GOP sink district in exchange for 1,17,19,22 getting much bluer?

I don’t think Malliotakis would be happy with that. She would want Staten Island to stay the center of GOP power there rather than have it moved to the Orthodox neighborhoods in Brooklyn.

[Minnesota Mike]

Sounds like the commision is not going to make major changes.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/14/house-redistricting-new-york-00141458

The new lines could provide modest boosts to Democrats in two competitive upstate districts and to Republicans in another upstate seat, according to three state officials, including members of both parties, who have been briefed on the parameters. But there’s an expectation they will leave several competitive districts in New York City’s suburbs essentially unchanged.

The most significant change, according to the state officials briefed on the plans, would be to the Central New York district held by freshman Republican Rep. Brandon Williams.....

The lines that are currently expected would be somewhere in between these two plans — Auburn, but not Ithaca, is likely to join Syracuse. That would allow for a 4-point shift toward Democrats, according to the officials.

[GALeftist]

Simcha Felder won’t be a problem, he voted in favor of the previous Hochulmander. People ITT really don’t understand his transactional brand of politics, a gerrymander is more likely to be sunk by a Long Island senator if anything.

Having said that, I think New York Democrats will ultimately pass a gerrymander or at least attempt to. There was no point in going through this whole process for a couple seats they probably would have won anyway. I’d imagine leadership has already counted the votes; it really just comes down to if the CoA approves the map or not.

[Oryxslayer]

I terms of shoring up Ny-03 and long Island in general, thats easy. Just yank the Massapequa/southern Oyster Bay towns out of the Dem seats and put them in NY-02, swapping for the majority-minority precincts. That gives you enough Dem voters in the region to balance between three seats, depending upon what results are most desirable.

In terms of procedure, the commission is going to vote tomorrow, according to their own publication. No maps until they have been voted on. This suggests either a corrupt bargain in some way or an expectation of the tied partisan membership not having anything decided like last time.

And yes, as noted, the Dems in the legislature will likely reject anything they see as too republican-favoring, even if it might not be republican leaning.