2020 New York Redistricting

[ProgressiveModerate]

I will say, the one silver lining about a south brooklyn R seat is it could get rid of Jeffries(not saying it will, but it's a possibility)

You can still easily do two Black influence seats in Brooklyn--it actually makes it easier because some of the gentrified and gentrifying areas in northern Brooklyn are actually a good bit Blacker than Gravesend or Midwood.

You can do 2 black seats but without South Brooklyn Rs/Orthodox Jees the primary would logically be much more progressive dominated .

Just curious HOW do you do 2 black seats exactly without reaching into Manhattan? The only options I see are weakening NY-07 and/or attatching Staten Island to Manhattan. Rmbr if black seats are gonna be connected to hyper liberal white areas, then they rlly have to be like 50% black to ensure their functionality.

Give Jeffries some of southwest Queens (not Jamaica but the very racially diverse areas around Ozone Park) and then send Meeks deeper into Long Island (and/or give him a plurality seat).

That creates a chain reaction that weakens NY-06 ultimately.

You can draw it so that NY-06 is about where it is now as far as Asian percentage--Northern Nassau is actually pretty Chinese. Or you can maintain NY-06 with an upped asian percentage and then draw a NY-03 which skirts around it to take in less asian areas in Astoria or crosses over to grab some of Westchester (which might be the best outcome despite sucking).

But then aren’t you cutting off Hispanic areas in Northern Queens to NY-14?

[Sol]

I will say, the one silver lining about a south brooklyn R seat is it could get rid of Jeffries(not saying it will, but it's a possibility)

You can still easily do two Black influence seats in Brooklyn--it actually makes it easier because some of the gentrified and gentrifying areas in northern Brooklyn are actually a good bit Blacker than Gravesend or Midwood.

You can do 2 black seats but without South Brooklyn Rs/Orthodox Jees the primary would logically be much more progressive dominated .

Just curious HOW do you do 2 black seats exactly without reaching into Manhattan? The only options I see are weakening NY-07 and/or attatching Staten Island to Manhattan. Rmbr if black seats are gonna be connected to hyper liberal white areas, then they rlly have to be like 50% black to ensure their functionality.

Give Jeffries some of southwest Queens (not Jamaica but the very racially diverse areas around Ozone Park) and then send Meeks deeper into Long Island (and/or give him a plurality seat).

That creates a chain reaction that weakens NY-06 ultimately.

You can draw it so that NY-06 is about where it is now as far as Asian percentage--Northern Nassau is actually pretty Chinese. Or you can maintain NY-06 with an upped asian percentage and then draw a NY-03 which skirts around it to take in less asian areas in Astoria or crosses over to grab some of Westchester (which might be the best outcome despite sucking).

But then aren’t you cutting off Hispanic areas in Northern Queens to NY-14?

Yeah you can then do a near-majority Latino seat just in Queens and then a succesor to NY-14 in the Bronx which can maybe also take in Yonkers, etc.

Here's a map which I've been playing with which sort of does this (redrawing rn to up the LVAP in NY-16)

[lfromnj]

What is underdiscussed though is the fact that not only were the maps struck down but the legislature lost power. Torie did you see that one coming? It's effectively through the loophole of the IRC and how they didn't pass a 2nd map. I don't think its impossible FL's map gets struck down but its pretty clear the house map would just be the map in that scenario.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/TweetsByMahtin/status/1519736614825693185

It's always been Cuomo.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/TweetsByMahtin/status/1519736614825693185

It's always been Cuomo.

Tbf I would call the justices moderate rather than seriously conservative , but ye, def usually conservative considering how blue NY is.

Funny how malapportioned maps last cycle May have lead to a gerrymander being struck down this cycle.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I will say, the one silver lining about a south brooklyn R seat is it could get rid of Jeffries(not saying it will, but it's a possibility)

You can still easily do two Black influence seats in Brooklyn--it actually makes it easier because some of the gentrified and gentrifying areas in northern Brooklyn are actually a good bit Blacker than Gravesend or Midwood.

You can do 2 black seats but without South Brooklyn Rs/Orthodox Jees the primary would logically be much more progressive dominated .

Just curious HOW do you do 2 black seats exactly without reaching into Manhattan? The only options I see are weakening NY-07 and/or attatching Staten Island to Manhattan. Rmbr if black seats are gonna be connected to hyper liberal white areas, then they rlly have to be like 50% black to ensure their functionality.

Give Jeffries some of southwest Queens (not Jamaica but the very racially diverse areas around Ozone Park) and then send Meeks deeper into Long Island (and/or give him a plurality seat).

That creates a chain reaction that weakens NY-06 ultimately.

You can draw it so that NY-06 is about where it is now as far as Asian percentage--Northern Nassau is actually pretty Chinese. Or you can maintain NY-06 with an upped asian percentage and then draw a NY-03 which skirts around it to take in less asian areas in Astoria or crosses over to grab some of Westchester (which might be the best outcome despite sucking).

But then aren’t you cutting off Hispanic areas in Northern Queens to NY-14?

Yeah you can then do a near-majority Latino seat just in Queens and then a succesor to NY-14 in the Bronx which can maybe also take in Yonkers, etc.

Here's a map which I've been playing with which sort of does this (redrawing rn to up the LVAP in NY-16)

Don't see any map or link but I'd be very curious to see it. I'll send an updated version of my map too. I feel like neither of the proposed maps on 538 that create the Orthodox Jewish seat do a very good job at it as one plan really messes up the black seats while the other does a god-awful NY-03  (The Stephen Dunn map seems like an R gerry)

Edit: Here's my updated map of the NYC area that I would propose as a native NYC person:



It's not perfect but IMO it balances the criteria pretty well. Districts 1, 2, 10, and to a lesser degree 3 and 4 would all be competitive in the right circumstances.

On Long Island, I basically kept the current config which works pretty well though ofc everything has to expand pushing districts towards the city. The district populations are pretty good fit for a lot of the municipality lines so I largely followed those for these districts, especially since they all have very distinct cultures and such.

In NYC, I kept 5 and 6 more or less the same with 6 being pushed into the city to account for population loss in the Long Island seats. It picks up Asian areas near Woodside keeping it 47% Asian. NY-03 could be considered a Asian influence seat as naturally it sheds a bit to it.

South Brooklyn to include a NY-10 that is a 33% Asian seat that also takes in many Orthodox Jewish areas. 8 and 9 are both still black VRA 50% seats but rotate slightly to clean things up and make way for NY-10. 7 retains it's Hispanic influence and still should generally function though it had to expand and lose the snake down into Brooklyn. In exchange, it picks up some mildly Hispanic areas in Manhattan and North of Williamsburg. All these districts try and follow key subway corridors and roads their their guide since these are often what shape communities, especially in NYC. District 7 basically matches the J/Z and L trains, district 9 is served by the 2/3/4/5, and 8 is home to the whole junction of trains that enter Brooklyn from Manhattan and Spread out.

I know my NY-11 is controversial, but I have justification. Firstly, as 10 was the district that was cut to make the South Brooklyn district, something had to go in to Manhattan to make for the loss and every other district in Brooklyn would face VRA challenges if it did so. Secondly, there really is no "good" place to attach NY-11 to the city; South Brooklyn would become incredibly dense and it would come at the cost of splitting the Asian community, snaking around to pick up predominately Jewish areas, or be ugly and pick up liberals in Park Slope area anyways. Furthermore, it creates a cascade of problems which would likely result in NY-03 having to cross into the Bronx which is just bad. Also, remember, the Staten Island Ferry has higher daily ridership of nearly 100k than the Veranzano bridge, and many of these people commute to Lower Manhattan and spread out from there. Hence I thought for the sake of the rest of the map, this was the best of a lot of bad options. Surprisingly, the district is "only" Biden + 16 but would functionally be Safe D as Lower Manhattan isn't budging and is going to be more reliable at turning out.

The rest of largely White Manhattan is perfectly the size for a Manhattan-based NY-12 that basically connects midtown and a bunch of the highly affluent communities on either side of Central Park. This district would be gold for someone like Maloney.

To clean things up and account for the fact a district would have to shift Northwards, I switched NY-13 section of the Bronx to pick up the lower denser section immediately outside the city rather than reaching up to Norwood. This allows 15 to expand while still taking in Hispanic Yonkers. 14 stays simillar but picks up segments of the Brnox along Bruckner Expy as well as Astoria, making for a historically very industrial district. All 3 districts are majority Hispanic.

Also, compared to a lot of maps I've seen, this map is very clean which not shaking things up too much.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Justin_TTF/status/1519791871140245504

Map schedule moved ahead slightly along with state senate maps added.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Justin_TTF/status/1519791871140245504

Map schedule moved ahead slightly along with state senate maps added.

By any chance do you know how to submit a map to the court exactly? Can any ordinary person just do so?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Justin_TTF/status/1519791871140245504

Map schedule moved ahead slightly along with state senate maps added.

By any chance do you know how to submit a map to the court exactly? Can any ordinary person just do so?

I wouldn't know the exact process but one should be able to. One complaint I guess people can have is it is pretty dumb one has to specifically go to Bath NY to be able to testify for a map?

[Sol]

Apologies, forgot add the link

[lfromnj]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/nyregion/redistricting-maps-court-appeals.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytmetro

Here's an article that shows the D fallout.


 It seems NY D's were really counting on the court will let us redraw even if it strikes it down. The Legal world definetely seems surprised that the court bought the procedural argument which also makes the legislature lose its redistricting power.

Rich Azzopardi, a spokesman for Mr. Cuomo, called the charges “absurd” and defended the 2014 reforms as a “national model.” He added: “If they want to blame someone for violating the process and drawing unconstitutional districts, there are plenty of mirrors in this town,” he said.

Lol Cuomo.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/lawler4ny/status/1519850083038150656?cxt=HHwWgICy9aLm...

Seems that Democrats can't submit maps

[Torie]

torie, do you think dems will try to squirm their way out of this (not that they would necessarily be auccessful) or just give in

Of course the Dems will try to squirm out of it. The Dem chairperson says there is a federal court order mandating a June 28 primary date that cannot be changed. Nope. It can and will be changed.

[lfromnj]

torie, do you think dems will try to squirm their way out of this (not that they would necessarily be auccessful) or just give in

Of course the Dems will try to squirm out of it. The Dem chairperson says there is a federal court order mandating a June 28 primary date that cannot be changed. Nope. It can and will be changed.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/28/new-york-redistricting-spooks-house-dems-00028753

Heres a politico Dems in Dissarray that's finally true. Seems that is their hail mary strategy.

[Torie]

torie, do you think dems will try to squirm their way out of this (not that they would necessarily be auccessful) or just give in

Of course the Dems will try to squirm out of it. The Dem chairperson says there is a federal court order mandating a June 28 primary date that cannot be changed. Nope. It can and will be changed.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/28/new-york-redistricting-spooks-house-dems-00028753

Heres a politico Dems in Dissarray that's finally true. Seems that is their hail mary strategy.

Yeah, they are. It's all going down in flames. The courts are in charge now, and the highest court has ruled. The primary date will have to be moved. It is right there in black and white in their opinion.  The court can do what is necessary to afford the people the right to vote in an election with maps that are Constitutional.

[lfromnj]

torie, do you think dems will try to squirm their way out of this (not that they would necessarily be auccessful) or just give in

Of course the Dems will try to squirm out of it. The Dem chairperson says there is a federal court order mandating a June 28 primary date that cannot be changed. Nope. It can and will be changed.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/28/new-york-redistricting-spooks-house-dems-00028753

Heres a politico Dems in Dissarray that's finally true. Seems that is their hail mary strategy.

Yeah, they are. It's all going down in flames. The courts are in charge now, and the highest court has ruled. The primary date will have to be moved. It is right there in black and white in their opinion.  The court can do what is necessary to afford the people the right to vote in an election with maps that are Constitutional.

Did you see the courts taking the map drawing power though? Everyone else seems surprised by that one. The ruling was more bold than the Stueben judge.

[Torie]

torie, do you think dems will try to squirm their way out of this (not that they would necessarily be auccessful) or just give in

Of course the Dems will try to squirm out of it. The Dem chairperson says there is a federal court order mandating a June 28 primary date that cannot be changed. Nope. It can and will be changed.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/28/new-york-redistricting-spooks-house-dems-00028753

Heres a politico Dems in Dissarray that's finally true. Seems that is their hail mary strategy.

Yeah, they are. It's all going down in flames. The courts are in charge now, and the highest court has ruled. The primary date will have to be moved. It is right there in black and white in their opinion.  The court can do what is necessary to afford the people the right to vote in an election with maps that are Constitutional.

Did you see the courts taking the map drawing power though? Everyone else seems surprised by that one. The ruling was more bold than the Stueben judge.

Of course, although I thought the court would let the legislature pass a remedial map, the legality of which Judge McAllister could assess along with whatever his special master does. But I think the credibility of whatever the legislature does, along with their lawyers, has been shot. Embarrassing really. They were incredibly arrogant. And their arguments were make weight, and frankly insulting.

Right now, the Dems are at risk that they will not be able to submit any maps at all to the court. They are twisting, twisting, slowly, slowly in the wind. Their communications just exude panic and fear and desperation. Sad.

Oh, the Dems are submitting a map today it appears. It will be interesting to see how much less ugly it was than their last one, if at all.

[Greedo punched first]

What’s the likelihood NYC gets a second Republican seat?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/RepJeffries/status/1520048654190624768

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/RepJeffries/status/1520048654190624768

He's Salty because as progressivemoderate explained, he could lose to a progressive lol!
I'm waiting for AOC to respond, she's totally screwed in q neutral map

[Gass3268]

New York Dems should really just pull an Ohio GOP and ignore the courts. Its what all the cool kids are doing now.

[lfromnj]

New York Dems should really just pull an Ohio GOP and ignore the courts. Its what all the cool kids are doing now.

The Ohio GOP only gets away with that for legislative maps. The only reason they partially got away congressionally is because the court messed up on timing.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

New York Dems should really just pull an Ohio GOP and ignore the courts. Its what all the cool kids are doing now.

Yeah, they should ignore the ruling and print ballots for the districts from the legislature’s maps.

[BigSkyBob]

New York Dems should really just pull an Ohio GOP and ignore the courts. Its what all the cool kids are doing now.

Except, the Court ruled the IRC has the power to redistrict, and, the legislature does not. That is a very hard ruling to ignore.

The Ohio Supreme Court blinked, apparently, for the Congressional map, and, federal courts intervened on the legislative ones.

I don't foresee the Federal Courts not deferring to the New York Court of Appeals.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

New York Dems should really just pull an Ohio GOP and ignore the courts. Its what all the cool kids are doing now.

Except, the Court ruled the IRC has the power to redistrict, and, the legislature does not. That is a very hard ruling to ignore.

The Ohio Supreme Court blinked, apparently, for the Congressional map, and, federal courts intervened on the legislative ones.

I don't foresee the Federal Courts not deferring to the New York Court of Appeals.

Let ‘em enforce it