2020 New York Redistricting

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Long Island seats should be a very low priority,  they're exactly the kind of upper class, educated places that would be moving toward the Democrats moving forward (Nassau is the fifth most educated county in NY, Suffolk the 13th).

I wouldn't be surprised to see them trend to safe D by the end of the decade regardless how they're drawn.   The NY Dems shouldn't have bothered being so aggressive there.

The main impact of the court order will be the Staten Island district and the southeastern part of Upstate (17, 18, 19).   

The D gains in the State Senate in 2018 could well portend a future D trend in LI, making it hard to have a GOP-leaning CD on Long Island at all.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

torie, do you think dems will try to squirm their way out of this (not that they would necessarily be auccessful) or just give in

[lfromnj]

The Long Island seats should be a very low priority,  they're exactly the kind of upper class, educated places that would be moving toward the Democrats moving forward (Nassau is the fifth most educated county in NY, Suffolk the 13th).

I wouldn't be surprised to see them trend to safe D by the end of the decade regardless how they're drawn.   The NY Dems shouldn't have bothered being so aggressive there.

The main impact of the court order will be the Staten Island district and the southeastern part of Upstate (17, 18, 19).  

Long Island seems like it should be Safe D but Nassau+Suffolk have remained incredibly stable for the past 30 years or infact even trended R. It's pretty important.

[Nyvin]

The Long Island seats should be a very low priority,  they're exactly the kind of upper class, educated places that would be moving toward the Democrats moving forward (Nassau is the fifth most educated county in NY, Suffolk the 13th).

I wouldn't be surprised to see them trend to safe D by the end of the decade regardless how they're drawn.   The NY Dems shouldn't have bothered being so aggressive there.

The main impact of the court order will be the Staten Island district and the southeastern part of Upstate (17, 18, 19).  

Long Island seems like it should be Safe D but Nassau+Suffolk have remained incredibly stable for the past 30 years or infact even trended R. It's pretty important.

Pretty sure that's coming to an end pretty soon  though (if not already) looking at national trends and the populations living in those areas. 

[lfromnj]

The Long Island seats should be a very low priority,  they're exactly the kind of upper class, educated places that would be moving toward the Democrats moving forward (Nassau is the fifth most educated county in NY, Suffolk the 13th).

I wouldn't be surprised to see them trend to safe D by the end of the decade regardless how they're drawn.   The NY Dems shouldn't have bothered being so aggressive there.

The main impact of the court order will be the Staten Island district and the southeastern part of Upstate (17, 18, 19).  

Long Island seems like it should be Safe D but Nassau+Suffolk have remained incredibly stable for the past 30 years or infact even trended R. It's pretty important.

Pretty sure that's coming to an end pretty soon  though (if not already) looking at national trends and the populations living in those areas.  

The same national trends have existed everywhere else which have accordingly trended D since 1992, Long Island has not. Something is wrong in the water there. Again forget 1996, LI is more R than it was in 08 or 2012 and is barely more D than from 2004 of all years, so even if you wanted to include Obamas Sandy bump in 2012 you should also include W's 9/11 bump.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Long Island seats should be a very low priority,  they're exactly the kind of upper class, educated places that would be moving toward the Democrats moving forward (Nassau is the fifth most educated county in NY, Suffolk the 13th).

I wouldn't be surprised to see them trend to safe D by the end of the decade regardless how they're drawn.   The NY Dems shouldn't have bothered being so aggressive there.

The main impact of the court order will be the Staten Island district and the southeastern part of Upstate (17, 18, 19).  

Long Island seems like it should be Safe D but Nassau+Suffolk have remained incredibly stable for the past 30 years or infact even trended R. It's pretty important.

Pretty sure that's coming to an end pretty soon  though (if not already) looking at national trends and the populations living in those areas.  

The same national trends have existed everywhere else which have accordingly trended D since 1992, Long Island has not. Something is wrong in the water there. Again forget 1996, LI is more R than it was in 08 or 2012 and is barely more D than from 2004 of all years, so even if you wanted to include Obamas Sandy bump in 2012 you should also include W's 9/11 bump.

It seems like liberals tend to be moving to the Northern suburbs or even into NJ, less into long Island which has a much more old school vibe that's a bit weird to describe. It's a bit like semi trailer park retirement communities in Florida kinda vibe like North of Tampa.

It's hard to tell to what degree Obama's performance in LI and Staten Island was a fluke. Biden actually made pretty good gains over Clinton in most of white Suffolk and Nassau County, however, he collapsed in heavily minority and some Jewish enclaves. I kinda just expect the region to largely politically neutralize.

On a sidenote, Biden really didn't gain very much in White parts of Staten Island and the County as a whole stayed basically the same.

NYC metro is unique because compared to a lot of metros nationally there are quite a lot of weird political enclaves

If you really wanna make the Dems could rely on shifts argument, I think you would be better making that case for upstate NY seats like NY-17/18/19 which are highly educated. A Syracuse seat could fall in this category too, and while their growth has been unimpressive, it still seems to be working in Dems favor in their new coalition. Kinda unclear how much grond Dems have to lose in certain upstate rurals

[lfromnj]

The Long Island seats should be a very low priority,  they're exactly the kind of upper class, educated places that would be moving toward the Democrats moving forward (Nassau is the fifth most educated county in NY, Suffolk the 13th).

I wouldn't be surprised to see them trend to safe D by the end of the decade regardless how they're drawn.   The NY Dems shouldn't have bothered being so aggressive there.

The main impact of the court order will be the Staten Island district and the southeastern part of Upstate (17, 18, 19).  

Long Island seems like it should be Safe D but Nassau+Suffolk have remained incredibly stable for the past 30 years or infact even trended R. It's pretty important.

Pretty sure that's coming to an end pretty soon  though (if not already) looking at national trends and the populations living in those areas.  

The same national trends have existed everywhere else which have accordingly trended D since 1992, Long Island has not. Something is wrong in the water there. Again forget 1996, LI is more R than it was in 08 or 2012 and is barely more D than from 2004 of all years, so even if you wanted to include Obamas Sandy bump in 2012 you should also include W's 9/11 bump.

It seems like liberals tend to be moving to the Northern suburbs or even into NJ, less into long Island which has a much more old school vibe that's a bit weird to describe. It's a bit like semi trailer park retirement communities in Florida kinda vibe like North of Tampa.

It's hard to tell to what degree Obama's performance in LI and Staten Island was a fluke. Biden actually made pretty good gains over Clinton in most of white Suffolk and Nassau County, however, he collapsed in heavily minority and some Jewish enclaves. I kinda just expect the region to largely politically neutralize.

On a sidenote, Biden really didn't gain very much in White parts of Staten Island and the County as a whole stayed basically the same.

NYC metro is unique because compared to a lot of metros nationally there are quite a lot of weird political enclaves

If you really wanna make the Dems could rely on shifts argument, I think you would be better making that case for upstate NY seats like NY-17/18/19 which are highly educated. A Syracuse seat could fall in this category too, and while their growth has been unimpressive, it still seems to be working in Dems favor in their new coalition. Kinda unclear how much grond Dems have to lose in certain upstate rurals

To show people how Long Island is, note this is the most Democratic seat as well and they basically put out proposals which might seem radical from the GOP.

https://twitter.com/JCColtin/status/1519502093371035649

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Long Island seats should be a very low priority,  they're exactly the kind of upper class, educated places that would be moving toward the Democrats moving forward (Nassau is the fifth most educated county in NY, Suffolk the 13th).

I wouldn't be surprised to see them trend to safe D by the end of the decade regardless how they're drawn.   The NY Dems shouldn't have bothered being so aggressive there.

The main impact of the court order will be the Staten Island district and the southeastern part of Upstate (17, 18, 19).   

Trump is the only Republican to win Suffolk county since 1988 and he won it both times, so it's not some amazing D trend there.

[ProgressiveModerate]

We probably get at least 5 Trump seats, 1 on Long Island (may or may not be Garbarino's), Malliotakis' seat, Stefanik's seat, Jacobs' seat, and a third seat that Tenney may or may not run in.

There more likely that not will be a second Trump seat in Long Island, but it's not a guarantee. At least one of Jones/Maloney/Delgado could also get a Trump seat, but all three is unlikely. The Syracuse seat will likely remain a Biden seat. And there could be a second Trump seat in the Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn.

I agree. Upstate as on above NYC will prolly have 3 R seats. NY-22 is likely to be cut and tbh Central Valley geography is Dem favorable enough unless they do an East-Wesy split all the seats should have gone to Biden by varying degrees (though certainly not safe)

I have a feeling NY-02 is going to be a close district either way; it’s really hard to make it likely without a gerrymander so it doesn’t matter if it’s a Trump or Biden seat too much. NY-01 will def be a narrow Trump seat.

As for South Brooklyn/Staten island, I think 2 R seats is unlikely because its really hard to do without screwing over a black seat or doing something nasty. I think it’s a one or the other kind of thing though a SI district could still be very competitive.

So that’s 5-6, MAYBE 7 Trump seats, at least 3 of which should be winnable (NY-01, an upstate seat, and something in south Brooklyn if they do 2 R seats, and NY-02 if it stays Trump.

The real L for Dems is less about the number of Trump seats; the new map could technically give them a chance to win 22, 23, MAYBE 24 seats, but a lot of their Biden seats will prolly stay simillar in partisanship to how they currently are with the big question mark being the Central Valley. I suspect safe/likely D seats around Rochester, Buffalo, and Albany will stay and Syracuse will seat a D leaning seat. NY-03 and NY-04 should stay simillar but they could still flip in a wave.

So in a good year this really isn’t much of an L for Dems but in a bad year it could be brutal. The good news though is this new map will likely add many competitive seats when they’re becoming increasingly rare hence making things more reactive to the nation.

Worst case for Dems would prolly be least change taken to the extreme, because the current upstate and Long Island configs are p good for Rs. The one silver lining is only 1 R Brooklyn seat.

[lfromnj]

We probably get at least 5 Trump seats, 1 on Long Island (may or may not be Garbarino's), Malliotakis' seat, Stefanik's seat, Jacobs' seat, and a third seat that Tenney may or may not run in.

There more likely that not will be a second Trump seat in Long Island, but it's not a guarantee. At least one of Jones/Maloney/Delgado could also get a Trump seat, but all three is unlikely. The Syracuse seat will likely remain a Biden seat. And there could be a second Trump seat in the Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn.

I agree. Upstate as on above NYC will prolly have 3 R seats. NY-22 is likely to be cut and tbh Central Valley geography is Dem favorable enough unless they do an East-Wesy split all the seats should have gone to Biden by varying degrees (though certainly not safe)

I have a feeling NY-02 is going to be a close district either way; it’s really hard to make it likely without a gerrymander so it doesn’t matter if it’s a Trump or Biden seat too much. NY-01 will def be a narrow Trump seat.

As for South Brooklyn/Staten island, I think 2 R seats is unlikely because its really hard to do without screwing over a black seat or doing something nasty. I think it’s a one or the other kind of thing though a SI district could still be very competitive.

So that’s 5-6, MAYBE 7 Trump seats, at least 3 of which should be winnable (NY-01, an upstate seat, and something in south Brooklyn if they do 2 R seats, and NY-02 if it stays Trump.

The real L for Dems is less about the number of Trump seats; the new map could technically give them a chance to win 22, 23, MAYBE 24 seats, but a lot of their Biden seats will prolly stay simillar in partisanship to how they currently are with the big question mark being the Central Valley. I suspect safe/likely D seats around Rochester, Buffalo, and Albany will stay and Syracuse will seat a D leaning seat. NY-03 and NY-04 should stay simillar but they could still flip in a wave.

So in a good year this really isn’t much of an L for Dems but in a bad year it could be brutal. The good news though is this new map will likely add many competitive seats when they’re becoming increasingly rare hence making things more reactive to the nation.

Worst case for Dems would prolly be least change taken to the extreme, because the current upstate and Long Island configs are p good for Rs. The one silver lining is only 1 R Brooklyn seat.

Delgado's seat has to be a Trump seat unless you do some funky stuff with the Albany suburbs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

We probably get at least 5 Trump seats, 1 on Long Island (may or may not be Garbarino's), Malliotakis' seat, Stefanik's seat, Jacobs' seat, and a third seat that Tenney may or may not run in.

There more likely that not will be a second Trump seat in Long Island, but it's not a guarantee. At least one of Jones/Maloney/Delgado could also get a Trump seat, but all three is unlikely. The Syracuse seat will likely remain a Biden seat. And there could be a second Trump seat in the Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn.

I agree. Upstate as on above NYC will prolly have 3 R seats. NY-22 is likely to be cut and tbh Central Valley geography is Dem favorable enough unless they do an East-Wesy split all the seats should have gone to Biden by varying degrees (though certainly not safe)

I have a feeling NY-02 is going to be a close district either way; it’s really hard to make it likely without a gerrymander so it doesn’t matter if it’s a Trump or Biden seat too much. NY-01 will def be a narrow Trump seat.

As for South Brooklyn/Staten island, I think 2 R seats is unlikely because its really hard to do without screwing over a black seat or doing something nasty. I think it’s a one or the other kind of thing though a SI district could still be very competitive.

So that’s 5-6, MAYBE 7 Trump seats, at least 3 of which should be winnable (NY-01, an upstate seat, and something in south Brooklyn if they do 2 R seats, and NY-02 if it stays Trump.

The real L for Dems is less about the number of Trump seats; the new map could technically give them a chance to win 22, 23, MAYBE 24 seats, but a lot of their Biden seats will prolly stay simillar in partisanship to how they currently are with the big question mark being the Central Valley. I suspect safe/likely D seats around Rochester, Buffalo, and Albany will stay and Syracuse will seat a D leaning seat. NY-03 and NY-04 should stay simillar but they could still flip in a wave.

So in a good year this really isn’t much of an L for Dems but in a bad year it could be brutal. The good news though is this new map will likely add many competitive seats when they’re becoming increasingly rare hence making things more reactive to the nation.

Worst case for Dems would prolly be least change taken to the extreme, because the current upstate and Long Island configs are p good for Rs. The one silver lining is only 1 R Brooklyn seat.

Delgado's seat has to be a Trump seat unless you do some funky stuff with the Albany suburbs.

I’m assuming it avoids Albany but fully takes in Columbia and Ulster. You’d have to be pretty selective about the rurals you take in to cancel that out but yes it could be narrowly Trump. The issue is NY-19 can’t really “dig in” to NY-21 which will be landlocked sorta so the easiest way to deal with it is arguably to take in most of Broome. It’ll be competitive either way

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1519663220331532292

Rs could try their luck at changing the special master. The article quotes that Sam Wang favorably vhanged the grade of the PA map based on donor pressure.

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1519663220331532292
Rs could try their luck at changing the special master. The article quotes that Sam Wang favorably vhanged the grade of the PA map.

Sam Wang is such a Democratic hack. None of his models or metrics are that reliable and are exclusively biased towards Democrats. He is very reliant on the prestige of his university to stay relevant.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1519663220331532292
Rs could try their luck at changing the special master. The article quotes that Sam Wang favorably vhanged the grade of the PA map.

Sam Wang is such a Democratic hack. None of his models or metrics are that reliable and are exclusively biased towards Democrats. He is very reliant on the prestige of his university to stay relevant.

The models themselves don't seem that biased towards Democrats but he just disregards his own data.



Example, Michigan state senate, somehow such an extreme outlier of a map gets a B on partisan fairness



The Median Outcome in PA is barely passable according to him but this near impossible outlier is a fair map.

Overall definetely a silver lining from Democrats here.

The simulations overall still seem poor, because it says very few Wisconsin maps are 6-2 while most Georgia maps are 5-9? I guess overall simulations are relatively accurate when it comes to state legislatures but yeah a 6-2 map in Wisconsin should be perfectly normal while a 5-9 map in Georgia is definitely an aberration(it should be either 7-7 or 6-8 95% of the time)

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1519663220331532292
Rs could try their luck at changing the special master. The article quotes that Sam Wang favorably vhanged the grade of the PA map.

Sam Wang is such a Democratic hack. None of his models or metrics are that reliable and are exclusively biased towards Democrats. He is very reliant on the prestige of his university to stay relevant.

The models themselves don't seem that biased towards Democrats but he just disregards his own data.



Example, Michigan state senate, somehow such an extreme outlier of a map gets a B on partisan fairness



The Median Outcome in PA is barely passable according to him but this near impossible outlier is a fair map.

I was mainly referring to his past election models. With his redistricting models, the primary issue is the lack of transparency coupled with his bias. If he's not making the model publicly available, he's completely free to change his grading system subjectively. With NJ redistricting, when asked to clarify why his model regarded the Dem plan as better than the GOP plan, he refused. I wouldn't be surprised if his model also had the GOP plan as better in that case, but he once again fudged the numbers.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1519663220331532292
Rs could try their luck at changing the special master. The article quotes that Sam Wang favorably vhanged the grade of the PA map.

Sam Wang is such a Democratic hack. None of his models or metrics are that reliable and are exclusively biased towards Democrats. He is very reliant on the prestige of his university to stay relevant.

The models themselves don't seem that biased towards Democrats but he just disregards his own data.



Example, Michigan state senate, somehow such an extreme outlier of a map gets a B on partisan fairness



The Median Outcome in PA is barely passable according to him but this near impossible outlier is a fair map.

I was mainly referring to his past election models. With his redistricting models, the primary issue is the lack of transparency coupled with his bias. If he's not making the model publicly available, he's completely free to change his grading system subjectively. With NJ redistricting, when asked to clarify why his model regarded the Dem plan as better than the GOP plan, he refused. I wouldn't be surprised if his model also had the GOP plan as better in that case, but he once again fudged the numbers.

Yes there is a question now if R's can try changing this special master due to his connection.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I will say, the one silver lining about a south brooklyn R seat is it could get rid of Jeffries(not saying it will, but it's a possibility)

[ProgressiveModerate]

As a Dem, I’m no fan of Wang either. His overall outputs and the way he labels things seems quite subjective and as others have pointed out his confidence intervals are flawed. He may be loud but he def isn’t the gold standard in this area

[Sol]

I will say, the one silver lining about a south brooklyn R seat is it could get rid of Jeffries(not saying it will, but it's a possibility)

You can still easily do two Black influence seats in Brooklyn--it actually makes it easier because some of the gentrified and gentrifying areas in northern Brooklyn are actually a good bit Blacker than Gravesend or Midwood.

[lfromnj]

I will say, the one silver lining about a south brooklyn R seat is it could get rid of Jeffries(not saying it will, but it's a possibility)

You can still easily do two Black influence seats in Brooklyn--it actually makes it easier because some of the gentrified and gentrifying areas in northern Brooklyn are actually a good bit Blacker than Gravesend or Midwood.

You can do 2 black seats but without South Brooklyn Rs/Orthodox Jees the primary would logically be much more progressive dominated .

[Sol]

I will say, the one silver lining about a south brooklyn R seat is it could get rid of Jeffries(not saying it will, but it's a possibility)

You can still easily do two Black influence seats in Brooklyn--it actually makes it easier because some of the gentrified and gentrifying areas in northern Brooklyn are actually a good bit Blacker than Gravesend or Midwood.

You can do 2 black seats but without South Brooklyn Rs/Orthodox Jees the primary would logically be much more progressive dominated .

Jeffries probably still gets the less primary-able seat though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I will say, the one silver lining about a south brooklyn R seat is it could get rid of Jeffries(not saying it will, but it's a possibility)

You can still easily do two Black influence seats in Brooklyn--it actually makes it easier because some of the gentrified and gentrifying areas in northern Brooklyn are actually a good bit Blacker than Gravesend or Midwood.

You can do 2 black seats but without South Brooklyn Rs/Orthodox Jees the primary would logically be much more progressive dominated .

Just curious HOW do you do 2 black seats exactly without reaching into Manhattan? The only options I see are weakening NY-07 and/or attatching Staten Island to Manhattan. Rmbr if black seats are gonna be connected to hyper liberal white areas, then they rlly have to be like 50% black to ensure their functionality.

[Sol]

I will say, the one silver lining about a south brooklyn R seat is it could get rid of Jeffries(not saying it will, but it's a possibility)

You can still easily do two Black influence seats in Brooklyn--it actually makes it easier because some of the gentrified and gentrifying areas in northern Brooklyn are actually a good bit Blacker than Gravesend or Midwood.

You can do 2 black seats but without South Brooklyn Rs/Orthodox Jees the primary would logically be much more progressive dominated .

Just curious HOW do you do 2 black seats exactly without reaching into Manhattan? The only options I see are weakening NY-07 and/or attatching Staten Island to Manhattan. Rmbr if black seats are gonna be connected to hyper liberal white areas, then they rlly have to be like 50% black to ensure their functionality.

Give Jeffries some of southwest Queens (not Jamaica but the very racially diverse areas around Ozone Park) and then send Meeks deeper into Long Island (and/or give him a plurality seat).

The big annoying problem with NY redistricting is Long Island--drawing 3 BVAP majority seats in NYC requires a dip into Long Island, but that creates other complications and means that you either have to take Meng's seat into Nassau or draw a nasty LI district that either crosses the sound or goes deep into Queens. Maybe there's a better solution, will play around a little more.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I will say, the one silver lining about a south brooklyn R seat is it could get rid of Jeffries(not saying it will, but it's a possibility)

You can still easily do two Black influence seats in Brooklyn--it actually makes it easier because some of the gentrified and gentrifying areas in northern Brooklyn are actually a good bit Blacker than Gravesend or Midwood.

You can do 2 black seats but without South Brooklyn Rs/Orthodox Jees the primary would logically be much more progressive dominated .

Just curious HOW do you do 2 black seats exactly without reaching into Manhattan? The only options I see are weakening NY-07 and/or attatching Staten Island to Manhattan. Rmbr if black seats are gonna be connected to hyper liberal white areas, then they rlly have to be like 50% black to ensure their functionality.

Give Jeffries some of southwest Queens (not Jamaica but the very racially diverse areas around Ozone Park) and then send Meeks deeper into Long Island (and/or give him a plurality seat).

That creates a chain reaction that weakens NY-06 ultimately.

[Sol]

I will say, the one silver lining about a south brooklyn R seat is it could get rid of Jeffries(not saying it will, but it's a possibility)

You can still easily do two Black influence seats in Brooklyn--it actually makes it easier because some of the gentrified and gentrifying areas in northern Brooklyn are actually a good bit Blacker than Gravesend or Midwood.

You can do 2 black seats but without South Brooklyn Rs/Orthodox Jees the primary would logically be much more progressive dominated .

Just curious HOW do you do 2 black seats exactly without reaching into Manhattan? The only options I see are weakening NY-07 and/or attatching Staten Island to Manhattan. Rmbr if black seats are gonna be connected to hyper liberal white areas, then they rlly have to be like 50% black to ensure their functionality.

Give Jeffries some of southwest Queens (not Jamaica but the very racially diverse areas around Ozone Park) and then send Meeks deeper into Long Island (and/or give him a plurality seat).

That creates a chain reaction that weakens NY-06 ultimately.

You can draw it so that NY-06 is about where it is now as far as Asian percentage--Northern Nassau is actually pretty Chinese. Or you can maintain NY-06 with an upped asian percentage and then draw a NY-03 which skirts around it to take in less asian areas in Astoria or crosses over to grab some of Westchester (which might be the best outcome despite sucking).