🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[VPH]

This is also the first time ever the CDU/PCP loses the arch-communist town of Avis in a legislative election, right? Seems like the PS victory was not just very big but also very broad - plenty of such firsts.

Yep. CDU was wiped off the map. Once again, we see strong CHEGA performances in some of the CDU strongholds, especially where CHEGA did well in the municipal elections too. It's not just old left-wing voters though, as their strength up North attests to as well.

[Flyersfan232]

So wat do this mean fro the regionals governments thing that some in pa been wanting for a while

[Mike88]

So wat do this mean fro the regionals governments thing that some in pa been wanting for a while

I don't know to be honest. Costa has said he wants a referendum on regionalization by 2024, but we don't know the mood of the country by then, or even if it will be the main issue for the government.

[Mike88]

This is also the first time ever the CDU/PCP loses the arch-communist town of Avis in a legislative election, right? Seems like the PS victory was not just very big but also very broad - plenty of such firsts.

Yep. CDU was wiped off the map. Once again, we see strong CHEGA performances in some of the CDU strongholds, especially where CHEGA did well in the municipal elections too. It's not just old left-wing voters though, as their strength up North attests to as well.

Curiously, the rightwing as a whole did very well in the Alentejo. PSD was neck with neck with CDU in Beja, and surpassed CDU in Évora and Setúbal. In Beja city, it was only the second time in 35 years, that the PSD polled 2nd place.

[Flyersfan232]

is the ppm committed to restoring the monarchy and how many monarchists are they in others parties if any?

They support the idea of a monarchy but they don't have any commitment in restoring the monarch because the Constitution basically forbids any change of the form of government. Now, PPM is also a party aligned with agrarianism, the environment and a strong supporter for more autonomy to local governments. Since 1979, they have aligned themselves with PSD and/or CDS and have forged a series of coalitions on the national and local level which helps them elect several municipal members across the country. Currently they are in power in the Azores, in a coalition with PSD/CDS, and one of their MPs in the popular member from the tiny island of Corvo.

There are monarchists in all parties, left to right. There are BE members who join monarchist causes, there are PCP events in which the legitimate heir of the Portuguese throne, D. Duarte Pio, is invited to speak, there are some PS members who would support a referendum on the monarchy and PSD/CDS have a lot of members affiliated with the monarchist cause. However, this groups are relatively small and have little impact as the "return of the monarchy" isn't really an issue and basically no one cares about.

Regarding the overall support for a possible, but impossible, return of the monarch, there are few polls but two polls in 2010 had different questions: a Marktest poll showed that 37% think Portugal would be worse with the Monarchy, while almost 34% saying it would be the same or better; an UCP-CESOP poll, also from 2010, had support for the monarchy at just 11%.

was looking up cause bored but why did true pcp invited the would be king to a event?

[Mike88]

is the ppm committed to restoring the monarchy and how many monarchists are they in others parties if any?

They support the idea of a monarchy but they don't have any commitment in restoring the monarch because the Constitution basically forbids any change of the form of government. Now, PPM is also a party aligned with agrarianism, the environment and a strong supporter for more autonomy to local governments. Since 1979, they have aligned themselves with PSD and/or CDS and have forged a series of coalitions on the national and local level which helps them elect several municipal members across the country. Currently they are in power in the Azores, in a coalition with PSD/CDS, and one of their MPs in the popular member from the tiny island of Corvo.

There are monarchists in all parties, left to right. There are BE members who join monarchist causes, there are PCP events in which the legitimate heir of the Portuguese throne, D. Duarte Pio, is invited to speak, there are some PS members who would support a referendum on the monarchy and PSD/CDS have a lot of members affiliated with the monarchist cause. However, this groups are relatively small and have little impact as the "return of the monarchy" isn't really an issue and basically no one cares about.

Regarding the overall support for a possible, but impossible, return of the monarch, there are few polls but two polls in 2010 had different questions: a Marktest poll showed that 37% think Portugal would be worse with the Monarchy, while almost 34% saying it would be the same or better; an UCP-CESOP poll, also from 2010, had support for the monarchy at just 11%.

was looking up cause bored but why did true pcp invited the would be king to a event?

Maybe a bit of courtesy, but also, D. Duarte Pio is very pro-enviornment, and PCP has the PEV green wing, and he's also anti-Euro currency, which PCP is also against. So, a bit of both, I assume.

[VPH]

I had no idea about the monarchists on the left. Reminds me a little of Nouvelle Action Royaliste in France or the left-Carlists in Spain.

[mileslunn]

Maps. Most voted map by municipality:

Anyone able to do a left vs. right?  Be interested if a rural/urban divide as seems in German, Norwegian, and Portuguese elections parties on left won in many rural areas whereas in English speaking world, left is overwhelmingly in urban areas and also tends to win by much bigger margins than in those three while rural go for parties on right.  Is reason divide isn't yet as noticeable in rest of Europe.  Germany you saw it somewhat and it does seem some parties on left like German Greens, Red Party in Norway were very urban but others like Labour in Norway and SPD in Germany less so and appears PS has similar support in rural vs. urban.

[buritobr]

Was this election good or bad for the left?
PS had 47.7% of the seats and now it has 51.7%. But the combined left had 61.5% and now it has 56.6%. PS gained 9 seats. BE lost 14. CDU lost 6.

[PSOL]

Was this election good or bad for the left?
PS had 47.7% of the seats and now it has 51.7%. But the combined left had 61.5% and now it has 56.6%. PS gained 9 seats. BE lost 14. CDU lost 6.

Given the PS is being rewarded for austerity and corrupt machine politics, absolutely not, and the free reign they have now isn’t good. Generally being in opposition is usually better than a confidence and supply arrangement electorally, but the future looks very bleak with BE’s vote being more prone to cannibalization and CDU’s electorate risking to cease to be by naturally dying off or tuning out.

How s••• polling could get marginal support to bleed so much from both organizations is a disgrace and shows how terribly disconnected they are from the general populace. They clearly don’t have a lock on to their electorates at all.

[Mike88]

Anyone able to do a left vs. right?  Be interested if a rural/urban divide as seems in German, Norwegian, and Portuguese elections parties on left won in many rural areas whereas in English speaking world, left is overwhelmingly in urban areas and also tends to win by much bigger margins than in those three while rural go for parties on right.  Is reason divide isn't yet as noticeable in rest of Europe.  Germany you saw it somewhat and it does seem some parties on left like German Greens, Red Party in Norway were very urban but others like Labour in Norway and SPD in Germany less so and appears PS has similar support in rural vs. urban.

Here it is:

Left - Red; Right - Blue



The Right did well, as usual, in rural North and Center of the country, while the left dominated, as usual again, in the South. Some urban areas like Cascais, Aveiro, voted rightwing, but in Lisbon and Porto cities, the margins between right and left were quite close: Lisbon - 51% Left; 46% Right. Porto - 50% Left; 48% Right.

Overall, the left-right tally was the following:

2,874,591 Left (53.3%, 130 seats)
2,318,294 Right (43.0%, 96 seats)

The Left drooped 3.8% compared with 2019 and lost 12 seats. The Right grew 8.3% and won 12 seats, compared with 2 years ago.

[Mike88]

(...)but in Lisbon and Porto cities, the margins between right and left were quite close: Lisbon - 51% Left; 46% Right. Porto - 50% Left; 48% Right.

Full results of the two main cities in Portugal:

Lisbon
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1488292954066362373?cxt=HHwWioC9jc...

Porto
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1488296010652827652?cxt=HHwWiIC-uc...

[Flyersfan232]

Anyone able to do a left vs. right?  Be interested if a rural/urban divide as seems in German, Norwegian, and Portuguese elections parties on left won in many rural areas whereas in English speaking world, left is overwhelmingly in urban areas and also tends to win by much bigger margins than in those three while rural go for parties on right.  Is reason divide isn't yet as noticeable in rest of Europe.  Germany you saw it somewhat and it does seem some parties on left like German Greens, Red Party in Norway were very urban but others like Labour in Norway and SPD in Germany less so and appears PS has similar support in rural vs. urban.

Here it is:

Left - Red; Right - Blue



The Right did well, as usual, in rural North and Center of the country, while the left dominated, as usual again, in the South. Some urban areas like Cascais, Aveiro, voted rightwing, but in Lisbon and Porto cities, the margins between right and left were quite close: Lisbon - 51% Left; 46% Right. Porto - 50% Left; 48% Right.

Overall, the left-right tally was the following:

2,874,591 Left (53.3%, 130 seats)
2,318,294 Right (43.0%, 96 seats)

The Left drooped 3.8% compared with 2019 and lost 12 seats. The Right grew 8.3% and won 12 seats, compared with 2 years ago.

who got the ten percent

[Mike88]

who got the ten percent

You mean the remaining 3.7%? Other smaller parties and Blank and Invalid ballots.

[Mike88]

Party leadership changes:

- In CDS, Nuno Melo is considering running again for the leadership. He tried to run last November, but Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos didn't allow a leadership ballot.

- In the PSD, Rui Rio is preparing his exit from the leadership. His team will meet this week to set the timings for the next leadership ballot. Luís Montenegro, so far, seems the strongest name for the leadership.

- In BE, the mood is also very bad. Several party members are asking for the resignation of Catarina Martins.

[Mike88]

António Costa has tested positive for Covid-19. He is in isolation and will miss the meeting with President Marcelo to ask him to form a government. The meeting could still take place via videoconferencing or with someone representing Costa.

[Mike88]

PSD is considering asking for a recount in Bragança:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1488145428751159298

PSD wants to clarify doubts in Bragança and could ask for recount

The razor thin margin between PS and PSD in Bragança district, just 15 votes, is creating some doubts in the PSD. The party will ask for an explanation from the Interior ministry as, according to the party, when there was just one parish to be counted in the whole district, the PSD had a 63 vote advantage over the PS, but, all of the sudden, the PSD margin over the PS was reduced to just one vote. When the last parish was counted, which the PS won by 7 votes over the PSD, the PS lead reached the final 15. The local PSD says there are several doubts regarding the counting and will ask the Interior ministry if there were vote corrections during the counting or a computer bug. Only after that will they decide, or not, to ask for a recount.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Maps. Most voted map by municipality:

Why is Madeira a right-wing stronghold? Is it just because the numbers are inflated from the coalition that runs there?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Maps. Most voted map by municipality:

Why is Madeira a right-wing stronghold? Is it just because the numbers are inflated from the coalition that runs there?

Seems to be more because of the coalition, Madeira’s 6 seats split 3-3.

[FredLindq]

Has the party system in Portugal became more "European" Three centre-left parties (Left, Green and soc.dem.) and three centre-right (liberal, christdem. and nationalist).
Portugal: BE, CDU and PS and IL, PSD Chega.
Compare with Germany, Linke, Grune, SPD and FDP, CDU and AFD.
Spain Podemos, regionalist, PSOE and C´s, PP  and VOX.
Austria KÖP, Grune, SPÖ and NEOS, ÖVP and FPÖ.
Sweden; Left part, Greens , Soc.dems. and C+L, M+KD ans SD.
Belgium: PTB, ECOLO+Groen, PS+SPa and MR+VLD, CDH+CD&V and NVA+VB

[crals]

Yes, the party system became more similar to the rest of Europe, but the CDU is not at all the equivalent of a Green party. The PEV was always a minor element in it and now they don't even have seats left. The Green equivalents would be Livre and PAN. The CDU (PCP in practice) can be better compared to the East German Linke imo: supported mainly by older people in a certain region of the country, very ideological/left-wing in some aspects to the point it harms them but not really "woke", directly threatened by the rise of the far-right and the death of its most loyal supporters.

[Mike88]

Why is Madeira a right-wing stronghold? Is it just because the numbers are inflated from the coalition that runs there?

Madeira has always been a rightwing stronghold, as the PSD never lost an election in the islands. Madeira has a lot of small land owners, and after the 1974 revolution, there was fear of the left from these people, and adding that Madeira is a very religious region, it was, and still is, fertile ground for the rightwing. Plus, Madeira was deeply marked by the rule of Alberto João Jardim, Madeira's President between 1977 and 2015, which completely shaped the island from a very poor region, to a major tourist attraction. He's a PSD member, and the party has, since then, a lot of support, plus, being a region with just 250,000 inhabitants, the PSD machine controls a lot of votes.

[CumbrianLefty]

Have the overseas votes been fully counted yet, and if so have any seat changes resulted?

[Mike88]

Have the overseas votes been fully counted yet, and if so have any seat changes resulted?

Nope, only next week. The electoral commission is still receiving mail ballots from overseas and the deadline is 9 February, next Wednesday. During the same day, they will start counting the ballots. In terms of seats, it's expected that the 2-2 between PS and PSD will remain.

[Mike88]

Have the overseas votes been fully counted yet, and if so have any seat changes resulted?

Nope, only next week. The electoral commission is still receiving mail ballots from overseas and the deadline is 9 February, next Wednesday. During the same day, they will start counting the ballots. In terms of seats, it's expected that the 2-2 between PS and PSD will remain.

As usual, there were a lot of issues with overseas voting. Many voters were barred from voting in person, as their names weren't on the electoral rolls, and in many countries, many voters didn't receive their ballots by mail. This was the case of voters in Angola, Venezuela, South Africa