🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

New year, new thread.

The old thread: Portugal's politics and elections

The old thread was becoming too big and had more than 3 years of covering Portuguese politics and elections. So, welcome to the new thread, Portugal's politics and elections 2.0.

Political summary:

President of the Republic: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (PSD) 2016-Incumbent
Prime Minister: António Costa (PS) 2015-Incumbent
Leader of the Opposition (unofficial): Rui Rio (PSD) 2018-Incumbent
Speaker of Parliament: Ferro Rodrigues (PS) 2015-Incumbent

Election results since 1975: (General, European and Local)


Poll averages since 2001:


Current "poll of polls": (From here)

35.3% PS
26.0% PSD
10.2% BE
  6.8% CDU
  4.9% PAN
  4.2% CHEGA
  3.6% CDS
  2.0% IL
  1.0% Livre
  0.0% Alliance
  6.0% Others/Invalid

Political events in 2020:

11 January: PSD leadership election
18 January: 2nd round PSD leadership election (if necessary)
25-26 January: CDS national congress to elect a new leader
7-9 February: PSD national congress
April-May: PS national congress
October: Azores regional elections
27-29 November: PCP national congress

Local by-elections:

12 January: Caniçada e Soengas by-election
16 February: Mindelo by-election

[Mike88]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa warns Costa to not act like if has an absolute majority in the President's New Year message.

https://twitter.com/CMtv_canal/status/1212413183270326272

"Greater attention to misery": Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa calls for a better year than 2019 in New Year's message

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, the President of the Republic, spent the New Year's eve on Portugal's farthest place, the Corvo island, which has around 350 inhabitants. Almost a third of the island inhabitants dinned with the President last night. It was from this island that the President addressed the nation in the traditional New Year's message. In his message, Marcelo asked for a better year than the last one, asked for not forgeting the big urgent reforms Portugal needs on healthcare and poverty, and warned António Costa to not act like if he had an absolute majority adding that he needs to talk and negotiate to have a strong and stable government. The President also asked for a strong opposition against the government in order to have an alternative, which is healthy to democracy.

After the live broadcast of the message, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa did, as usual, his traditional New Year's diving in the shore of Corvo island:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1212376867774369793

After giving his New Year message to the Portuguese, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa held his first bath of the year on the island of Corvo, in the Azores.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: Candidates manifestos are unveiled.

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1212809291608076288

Three candidacies were formally accepted for the PSD leadership.

The three candidacies for the PSD leadership, and their respective manifestos, were formally accepted, today, by the PSD national council. The manifestos were posted in the PSD website. The main lines are the following:

Rui Rio:

- Following the policies proposed in the 2019 general election manifesto;
- Reform of the political system;
- More focus and support to exportation rather than importations;
- Tax cuts, investment in wages and more integration with the digital economy;
- Reaching the goal of carbon neutrality by 2030;
- More investment and reform in the NHS;

- Preparing the party for government starting in 2021;
- Winning more cities and mandates in 2021 local elections;
- Reinforcing the "reformist" soul of the PSD;

Luís Montenegro:

- Investment in housing policies;
- Investment and reform of public transportation;
- Index Portugal to the Gross National Happiness (GNH);
- More cooperation between public and private in the NHS;
- Support of policies towards gender equality and against domestic violence towards women;
- Tax cuts and more support to companies;

- Consolidating the PSD as a big force to defeat the PS and the leftwing parties;
- Winning all elections ahead (regional in the Azores, local election and general elections in 2023);
- Supporting the reelection of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa as President of the Republic;

Miguel Pinto Luz:

- More support to businesses and entrepreneurs;
- Investment in productivity and sustainability;
- Tax cuts for families and businesses;
- Rehabilitation of public buildings and Infrastructures;
- Environmental Tax Reform that promotes the emergence of environmental businesses (VAT; Corporate taxes);
- Reform and investment in the NHS;

- Winning the 2020 Azores, 2021 local and 2023 General elections;
- Defining the PSD as a reformist party and the only non-socialist alternative;
- Unifying and giving more voice to members of the party;

[Mike88]

Crisis in CDS: CDS-PP officials complain of bullying and challenge dismissal.

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1212850301859962880

CDS-PP officials complain of bullying and challenge dismissal
Workers have not accepted proposed compensation and complain that they are not given anything to do.

CDS-PP officials have decided to challenge their dismissal for terminating their job, accusing the party of 'bullying' for having been sidelined for two months with 'nothing to do'.

Speaking to Lusa, Alexandra Uva said on Thursday that she had been effective for a decade and that her job was extinguished at the end of October, with the justification that the party is going through a complicated phase, but her Last day of work was on Friday.

Since she was told she would be fired, this party adviser complains of bullying.

"During these two months I have been completely put aside. They give me nothing to do at a time when there is work to do as it is a pre-congress period," he said, considering it "a matter of bullying." .

(...)

"They set me aside to affect me psychologically, to be the one to give up,"she lamented.

[Mike88]

2020 budget: Costa pressures BE and CDU to vote in favour next week and then negotiate.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1213226798206468096

2020 budget: Government presses BE and PCP: first make it possible, then negotiate

BE and CDU will decide their vote, regarding the 2020 budget, almost in the dark. Costa met, yesterday, with BE and CDU leaders but didn't compromise with nothing only, according to the media, that the leftwing should vote in favour of the budget in next week's overall vote and then negotiate policy by policy until the final vote in early February. BE will decide this weekend how to vote, however a non decision is also likely, while CDU has no plans to announce a vote decision. 

The other parties will announce their decision early in the next week. PSD will announce next Tuesday, an almost certain NO vote to the budget, while Livre is, once again, is the middle of a confusion. The Livre party leadership wants to abstain, but the Livre sole MP, Joacine Katar Moreira, says she's "independent" and that the Livre leadership decision isn't biding. So, if the PS-BE-CDU alliance fails, Costa still could have the PS-PAN-PSD/Madeira/Livre alliance, but it's still unclear if PAN and PSD/Madeira will fall in line, especially PSD/Madeira.

[Mike88]

JUST IN 2020 Budget: BE will not vote in favour. Only abstention and vote against are on the table.

Just announced by BE leader Catarina Martins in a press conference.

[Mike88]

Right now, the budget vote count is the following:

108 In favour (PS)
  83 Against (PSD, CDS, CHEGA, IL)
  39 In doubt (BE, CDU, PAN, PSD-Madeira, Livre)

I put the PSD in the against column because it's basically a forgone conclusion. Rio hasn't officially stated the party's position but all his rhetoric has been very harsh towards Costa, which he now calls the "Owner of the State". Plus, it would be political suicide to abstain just in the eve of a leadership election.

BE and CDU are really in a difficult place. Costa isn't budging a single bit from the budget draft and is putting all the pressure on the leftwing parties. BE will not vote in favour, but is open to abstaining which will depend on the PS response next week. CDU is also undecided and there's no position planned. The same for PAN. Livre is a mess, as usual.

The vote will be next Friday.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: Miguel Pinto Luz open to future coalitions with CHEGA.

During the presentation of his manifesto for next Saturday's leadership election, Miguel Pinto Luz said he was open to the idea of the PSD forming a coalition with André Ventura's CHEGA in order to have a majority in Parliament. He added that unlike the other 2 candidates in the race, he has no red lines regarding coalition with other parties. Montenegro, and Rio more off the record, have already excluded coalitions with CHEGA.

[Mike88]

Costa returns to the table with the leftwing parties in order to solve the budget deadlock:

António Costa will start talking, once again, with the leftwing parties in order to solve the current 2020 budget deadlock. BE will not vote in favour and PCP is silent. However, neither António Costa nor Mário Centeno, at least in public, are willing to drop parts of the budget to please the leftwing parties. During this Monday's session of Parliament, Mário Centeno didn't seem open to the Left's pleas to more investment, and higher wage increases, not to mention VAT cut in energy bills, with Centeno, over and over, talking of responsibility. The most likely outcome, as of now, seems to be the abstention of BE and PCP, the votes against of the Right opposition and only the PS votes in favour. We'll see

[Mike88]

This happened...

André Ventura wants Vox leader Santiago Abascal to "publicly retract" the map where Spain annexes Portugal:

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1214313640792395777

In a map released by Vox, Portugal is attached to Spain. André Ventura will personally demand from Abascal a "public correction of the error".

The map released by Vox, for a rally against Pedro Sanchéz new government, in which Portugal is part of Spain, made CHEGA leader André Ventura to ask Santiago Abascal to publicly retract and apologize because of the map. Ventura added that he will meet with Abascal next Saturday and will ask him to apologize, and, if not, relations between CHEGA and Vox could be hurt.

[Mike88]

2020 budget: As expected, Rui Rio announces the PSD will vote against.

https://twitter.com/sapo/status/1214629857449123841

The announcement was expected, but Rui Rio confirmed it today. The PSD will vote against the 2020 budget. Rio accused the government of designing a budget with no real path and only has tactical policies, adding also that the budget doesn't use fiscal policies to shore up the economy. Although Rio hails the budget surplus, he accuses the government of raising taxes and of bad management in public investment.

[Mike88]

2020 Budget: More parties announce voting intentions - PCP and PAN will abstain.

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1214901342784958465

PCP abstains in the 2020 Budget.

PCP will abstain in the 2020 budget vote next Friday. This makes the passing of the budget almost certain, as Costa has now 14 abstention, PAN also announced their abstention, meaning he only needs one more MP to abstain in order for the budget to pass. The general vote will, therefore, next Friday with the final vote in early February. Until then, parties will discuss policy by policy of the budget and, in theory, voting intentions could change, but that's unlikely.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership race: Campaign reaches the final days with the Madeira votes surrounded in controversy.

The 3 candidates for the PSD leadership are holding the final campaign events until election day, Saturday. Rui Rio is saying he will not change as leader, adding that if you don't like him, its better not to vote for him. Luís Montengro wants to lead a "new PSD" like Cavaco Silva did in the mid 80's. But, the last few days of the campaign have been marked by tensions between the PSD-Madeira and the national PSD because of the number of members registered in Madeira:

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1214963919162429441

PSD-Madeira opposes Jurisdiction Council and reiterates that 2,500 members are able to vote

The new rules, in order to registered to vote, are in the center of all. The national PSD say only 104 members are registered, and these 104 don't include high PSD-Madeira members like the incumbent Madeira President Miguel Albuquerque, while the regional PSD says that 2,500 members are registered, as the PSD-Madeira accepts membership payments, in cash, in the party's headquarters in Funchal, which violates the rules. The regional party says that these members can vote, but the national PSD is threatening their regional branch saying if they count those votes, the election will be nullified in Madeira. Rio wants the elections to be "clean" and isn't budging to Madeira, while Montenegro and Pinto Luz are criticizing Rio for punishing PSD members in a PSD bastion.

[Mike88]

2020 budget: Costa gets the budget approved after all leftwing parties decided to abstain leaving the PS as the sole party in favour.

António Costa got the passing of his 5th budget after all leftwing parties, BE, CDU, PAN, Livre plus PSD-Madeira, announced they would abstain in the budget vote tommorrow. This leaves the PS as the only party voting in favour with 108 votes, against the 83 votes of the rightwing parties combined.

https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1215287863027388417

State budget is the first PS one with the abstention from the Left since 2015.

During the 1st day of the debate, this afternoon, both side, left and right, criticized the budget but from different perspectives. The right accused the government of raising taxes again, while the left accused the government of having an obsession with the surplus and of cutting investment. PSD leader, Rui Rio, accused Centeno of erasing 590 million euros from the budget, asking ironically to the PM, where's Wally. The PSD later accused Costa of living in a fantasy land. The left parties, BE and CDU, said this budget is worse than the last four and the budget lacks a strategy and a path. While PCP, accused Costa of being obsessed with the surplus and being submissive towards the EU rules.

The PM said this budget is his best one till date and said that with the 2020 budget, the country will not go backwards. Costa added that the budget continues the strategy of more growth, better jobs and good accounts. He also hailed the budget surplus expected for 2020.

The 1st budget vote is tomorrow. There will be a final vote in early February. The current tally is the following:

108 In Favour (PS)
  83 Against (PSD, CDS, IL, CHEGA)
  39 Abstention (BE, CDU, PAN, PSD-Madeira, Livre)

[Mike88]

2020 Budget: Parliament approves the budget draft.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1215685607529308161

State Budget for 2020 approved by the PS.

Everything happened as planned. The sole 108 PS votes approved the budget, while the right voted against and the leftwing abstained.

[Mike88]

Tensions in the PSD: Rui Rio will send the PSD-Madeira MPs case to the party's jurisdiction committee.

Rui Rio, PSD leader, was clearly upset for being informed of the PSD-Madeira MPs vote by the media. Rio said to reporters he was probably going to be informed by SMS by the PSD-Madeira leader, Miguel Albuquerque. And after the vote, Rio informed that the PSD-Madeira MPs, who abstain in the budget vote, violated party protocol and that he would send this case to the party's jurisdiction committee, the PSD "court". This controversy adds more tensions between Rio and the PSD-Madeira, with the membership lists controversy still going. But, the PSD-Madeira is also divided. Rio's supporter and historic PSD figure, Alberto João Jardim, is defending Rio and condemning the PSD-Madeira position. And the PSD-Madeira sister party, the PSD-Azores, is saying they will follow the national rules, leaving PSD-Madeira alone.

PSD candidates have also different positions: Rio and Montenegro are downplaying the case, while Miguel Pinto Luz is sad that many PSD members in Madeira cannot vote.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper:

Vote share %:

37.2% PS (+0.1)
26.5% PSD (-0.4)
  9.6% BE (+0.1)
  6.6% CDU (-0.5)
  3.6% PAN (+0.1)
  3.5% CDS (-0.1)
  2.2% CHEGA (+0.3)
  1.3% IL (+0.2)
  0.6% Livre (nc)
  8.9% Others/Invalid (+0.2)

Q1: Should the 2020 budget be approved?

69.0% Yes
11.0% No
20.0% Undecided

Q2: Do you agree with the VAT increase on bullfights?

37.3% No
33.0% Yes
29.8% Undecided

Poll conducted between 5 and 9 January 2020. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: Polls opened at 2 PM and will stay open until 8 PM.

40,584 PSD members are registered to vote in today's leadership election. The issue about Madeira continues as the national PSD only counts 104 members registered while the regional party counts 2,500. This affair could end in courts, we'll see. Turnout is a big doubt as the discreet campaign may hurt turnout. If no candidate achieves 50%+1 of the votes, a 2nd round will be held next Saturday.

Results will start to be announced at 8 PM, when polls close.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership elections: The Madeira result could be contested and nullified.

The voting in the PSD leadership election is ongoing, and in Madeira the controversy continues. Alberto João Jardim, historic leader of the PSD-Madeira and Rui Rio supporter, said he will contest and ask to nullified the elections in Madeira due to illegalities done by the regional party. He formally complained to the regional party structure and said the voter lists are illegal. At the same time, the current PSD leader, Miguel Albuquerque, says that the autonomy of the PSD-Madeira is being attacked by the national PSD and that they will follow the same rules of the last 40 years.

Rui Rio, current PSD leader, after voting in Porto city, asked for a high turnout and said the Madeira issue will be dealt after the elections, adding that the annulment of the elections in Madeira is a possibility.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership elections: Polls start to close and vote counting underway.

The polls in the PSD leadership election closed at 8PM. Counting is undergoing all across the country. During the day, and alongside the Madeira issue, another controversy erupted in Amadora city, Lisbon. There, Rui Rio supporters said membership cards were being delivered in the door of the party headquarters and that no ID cards were being shown by party members. This created a tense argument between the Rio delegate and others.

[Mike88]

First results in: 10.8% reporting:

50.8% Luís Montenegro
44.5% Rui Rio
  3.9% Miguel Pinto Luz

Results from here: https://www.psd.pt/psd-ao-segundo/

[Mike88]

32.1% reporting:

50.9% Rui Rio
44.0% Luís Montenegro
  5.1% Miguel Pinto Luz

[VPH]

32.1% reporting:

50.9% Rui Rio
44.0% Luís Montenegro
  5.1% Miguel Pinto Luz

Man this is close!

[Mike88]

32.1% reporting:

50.9% Rui Rio
44.0% Luís Montenegro
  5.1% Miguel Pinto Luz

Man this is close!

It was expected but Rio's lead seems to be expanding with more than 12,000 votes counted:

54.4% Rui Rio
39.7% Luís Montenegro
  5.9% Miguel Pinto Luz

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: Rui Rio fails to win in the 1st ballot by just 300 votes. A second round between Rio and Montenegro to be held next Saturday.

Final tally:

49.3% Rui Rio (15,469 votes)
41.6% Luís Montenegro (13,039 votes)
  9.2% Miguel Pinto Luz (2,886 votes)

77.1% Turnout