🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[crals]

Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

Yep. I was very wrong. Never even considered the possibility.

No one believe it. The PS even stooped asking for a majority during last week because they thought it was scaring away voters.

I guess after the fairly stunning results of the autárquicas we were bound to have a surprise (or shall we say, a large polling error) on the other side... but yes, almost nobody could have predicted this. I think the most mind-blowing fact is that just one week ago a couple polls got out which had the PSD ahead. How things change!

I do wonder if it was a large polling error or undecided people really broke off heavily in favor of the PS. The turnout increase might point out to the latter.

[crals]

Yeah, I'm surprised too. Good on Costa, though honestly I can't be too thrilled that he's being rewarded for f**king over the left and going full neoliberal. And the next PSD leader will almost certainly be to the right of Rio.

I wouldn't say he went full neoliberal, but this is not a great result for the PS left indeed. Electing Pedro Nuno Santos as the next leader after this would be a big risk.

[VPH]

Remarkable to see PS carrying Leiria and Bragança, among other PSD strongholds.

Also, is CDS going to survive? If Rio steps down and PSD moves to the right, there's basically nothing left for them in terms of an ideological niche. They could either merge with PSD or CHEGA. The former seems more likely to me. Unless they do some weird merger with minor parties like PPM+PURP+Aliança but that wouldn't do much...

[Mike88]

Yeah, I'm surprised too. Good on Costa, though honestly I can't be too thrilled that he's being rewarded for f**king over the left and going full neoliberal. And the next PSD leader will almost certainly be to the right of Rio.

I wouldn't say he went full neoliberal, but this is not a great result for the PS left indeed. Electing Pedro Nuno Santos as the next leader after this would be a big risk.

Well, Doctor V has a point. I wouldn't say the PS is neoliberal, but they will now be free to act as they please and looking at history, majorities normally start well, but end badly. The left will also regroup and be full opposition towards the PS, which wasn't the case of the last 6 years. The NHS problems, wage issues, the social services chaos, all were a bit "camouflaged" by the geringonça and they will not be anymore probably.

[crals]

And it's official: PS has a majority, PAN is in and CDS is out.

[Walmart_shopper]

Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

Costa is really good at this.

At what exactly?

Also, Chicão is out. He resigned from CDS leadership.

Winning.

[Mike88]

Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

Costa is really good at this.

At what exactly?

Also, Chicão is out. He resigned from CDS leadership.

Winning.

This was actually Costa's biggest victory so far. 2015 was a fiasco for the PS, 2019 was.. meh.. not that great, but now, 2022, was totally out of the blue. No one expected this.

Also, I didn't hear anyone on TV talking about, the total polling fiasco, again. Polling in Portugal is becoming a mess.

[Mike88]

Final tally:

41.7% PS (+5.0), 117 seats (+11)
29.3% PSD (+1.4), 76 (-1)
  7.2% CHEGA (+5.7), 12 (+11)
  5.0% IL (+3.7), 8 (+7)
  4.5% BE (-5.2), 5 (-14)
  4.4% CDU (-2.1), 6 (-6)
  1.6% CDS (-2.6), 0 (-5)
  1.5% PAN (-1.7), 1 (-3)
  1.3% Livre (+0.2), 1 (nc)
  0.4% RIR (-0.3)
  0.2% JPP (nc)
  0.2% PCTP/MRPP (-0.5)
  0.2% ADN (nc)
  0.1% MPT (-0.1)
  0.1% MAS (+0.0)
  0.1% Volt Portugal (new)
  0.1% E (-0.2)
  0.1% PTP (-0.1)
  0.1% NC (-0.1)
  0.0% Alliance (-0.8 )
  0.0% PPM (-0.1)
  2.1% Blank/Invalid ballots (-2.2)

58.0% Turnout (+3.5)

In the next few days will post maps of parishes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Glad that turnout was genuinely up, although 58% is still not a great result.

[Mike88]

Glad that turnout was genuinely up, although 58% is still not a great result.

The "real" turnout is actually at around 65%. The voting age population is around 8,3 million, not 9,2 million. The 9 million figure is because many people who left Portugal in the last few years, didn't change their address and "officially" they still reside in Portugal, thus perverting the electoral roles.

[Mike88]

Oh my God, this actually happened:

Someone put a crown of flowers in front of CDS heartquarters in their memory:
https://twitter.com/joaogoliveira/status/1487932284447694856

Some CDS party members didn't like the "joke".

[Mike88]

Well, off to bed.

[Flyersfan232]

Remarkable to see PS carrying Leiria and Bragança, among other PSD strongholds.

Also, is CDS going to survive? If Rio steps down and PSD moves to the right, there's basically nothing left for them in terms of an ideological niche. They could either merge with PSD or CHEGA. The former seems more likely to me. Unless they do some weird merger with minor parties like PPM+PURP+Aliança but that wouldn't do much...

What’s the monarchist scene in true assembly like after tonight

[Flyersfan232]

Oh my God, this actually happened:

Someone put a crown of flowers in front of CDS heartquarters in their memory:
https://twitter.com/joaogoliveira/status/1487932284447694856

Some CDS party members didn't like the "joke".

So what happen to there Mep do he jump to psd

[Flyersfan232]

So PS L Chega  and the liberals are the winners tonight.

[mileslunn]

How come polls were so off?  It seems like no one suggested a PS majority was even remotely feasible yet they got one.  Also wonder how BE and CDU now feel as their decision to vote against budget backfired massively.  Lost a lot of ground and now zero influence on government.  Also must have been massive disappointment for PSD as even though they were not favoured to win, I think most thought they would make a lot more headway than they did.

It does seem though those further left probably had many break late towards PS simply to prevent a PSD government is my guess.

[Flyersfan232]

How come polls were so off?  It seems like no one suggested a PS majority was even remotely feasible yet they got one.  Also wonder how BE and CDU now feel as their decision to vote against budget backfired massively.  Lost a lot of ground and now zero influence on government.  Also must have been massive disappointment for PSD as even though they were not favoured to win, I think most thought they would make a lot more headway than they did.

It does seem though those further left probably had many break late towards PS simply to prevent a PSD government is my guess.

Reserve shy Tory

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

and as I do with these things, here's a fully proportional result:
 

Portugal (numbers may change)

PS: 98 seats (-19)
PSD: 65 seats (-6)
CH!: 17 seats (+5)
IL: 12 seats (+4)
BE: 11 seats (+6)
CDU: 10 seats (+4)
CDS-PP: 4 seats (+4)
PAN: 4 seats (+3)
L: 3 seats (+2)
MP*: 2 seats (-1)
AD**: 1 seat (-1)
RIR: 1 seat (+1)
JPP: 1 seat (+1)
PCTP/MRPP: 1 seat (+1)

BE (10.469 quotas) gets the last seat over ADN (0.437 quotas)

*Coalition of PSD and CDS-PP
**Coalition of PSD, CDS-PP, and PPM

[Continential]

Oh my God, this actually happened:

Someone put a crown of flowers in front of CDS heartquarters in their memory:
https://twitter.com/joaogoliveira/status/1487932284447694856
Some CDS party members didn't like the "joke".

Someone should perform last rites near the CDS headquarters because seeing the reaction by CDS members would be funny imo.

[YL]

How come polls were so off?  It seems like no one suggested a PS majority was even remotely feasible yet they got one.  Also wonder how BE and CDU now feel as their decision to vote against budget backfired massively.  Lost a lot of ground and now zero influence on government.  Also must have been massive disappointment for PSD as even though they were not favoured to win, I think most thought they would make a lot more headway than they did.

It does seem though those further left probably had many break late towards PS simply to prevent a PSD government is my guess.

Reserve shy Tory

Is there any reason to think that there might have been a "reverse shy Tory" effect here, in the sense of people voting PS but not being prepared to admit to this to pollsters?

The polls do show that there was a PS wobble followed by a swing back to them; could part of the error simply be that the swing back continued after the last polls were taken?

[Mike88]

How come polls were so off?  It seems like no one suggested a PS majority was even remotely feasible yet they got one.  Also wonder how BE and CDU now feel as their decision to vote against budget backfired massively.  Lost a lot of ground and now zero influence on government.  Also must have been massive disappointment for PSD as even though they were not favoured to win, I think most thought they would make a lot more headway than they did.

It does seem though those further left probably had many break late towards PS simply to prevent a PSD government is my guess.

Reserve shy Tory

Is there any reason to think that there might have been a "reverse shy Tory" effect here, in the sense of people voting PS but not being prepared to admit to this to pollsters?

The polls do show that there was a PS wobble followed by a swing back to them; could part of the error simply be that the swing back continued after the last polls were taken?

Polling showed a lot of undecided voters until the very last day, and at the last minute, many could have decided to vote in the PS in order to punish the leftwing parties and because of the PSD's indecision regarding a CHEGA support in a PSD minority. Between stability and instability, the voters picked stability at any cost.

[Mike88]

Maps. Most voted map by municipality:

[CumbrianLefty]

How come polls were so off?  It seems like no one suggested a PS majority was even remotely feasible yet they got one.  Also wonder how BE and CDU now feel as their decision to vote against budget backfired massively.  Lost a lot of ground and now zero influence on government.  Also must have been massive disappointment for PSD as even though they were not favoured to win, I think most thought they would make a lot more headway than they did.

It does seem though those further left probably had many break late towards PS simply to prevent a PSD government is my guess.

Reserve shy Tory

Is there any reason to think that there might have been a "reverse shy Tory" effect here, in the sense of people voting PS but not being prepared to admit to this to pollsters?

The polls do show that there was a PS wobble followed by a swing back to them; could part of the error simply be that the swing back continued after the last polls were taken?

Polling showed a lot of undecided voters until the very last day, and at the last minute, many could have decided to vote in the PS in order to punish the leftwing parties and because of the PSD's indecision regarding a CHEGA support in a PSD minority. Between stability and instability, the voters picked stability at any cost.

It seems obvious that the polls last week showing PSD edging ahead scared a significant number of votes back into the PS camp. Maybe some parallels with a certain election 30 years ago there.

[Mike88]

How come polls were so off?  It seems like no one suggested a PS majority was even remotely feasible yet they got one.  Also wonder how BE and CDU now feel as their decision to vote against budget backfired massively.  Lost a lot of ground and now zero influence on government.  Also must have been massive disappointment for PSD as even though they were not favoured to win, I think most thought they would make a lot more headway than they did.

It does seem though those further left probably had many break late towards PS simply to prevent a PSD government is my guess.

Reserve shy Tory

Is there any reason to think that there might have been a "reverse shy Tory" effect here, in the sense of people voting PS but not being prepared to admit to this to pollsters?

The polls do show that there was a PS wobble followed by a swing back to them; could part of the error simply be that the swing back continued after the last polls were taken?

Polling showed a lot of undecided voters until the very last day, and at the last minute, many could have decided to vote in the PS in order to punish the leftwing parties and because of the PSD's indecision regarding a CHEGA support in a PSD minority. Between stability and instability, the voters picked stability at any cost.

It seems obvious that the polls last week showing PSD edging ahead scared a significant number of votes back into the PS camp. Maybe some parallels with a certain election 30 years ago there.

That is the theory, yes.

I just talked with a former BE voter, who voted PS in order to punish the leftwing, and a funny thing happen: he's now regretting his vote because the PS won a majority.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This is also the first time ever the CDU/PCP loses the arch-communist town of Avis in a legislative election, right? Seems like the PS victory was not just very big but also very broad - plenty of such firsts.