🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

i see chega leader likeing some of vox social media pages. and chega leader did campagin with meloni of brother of italy who party is apart of the ecr with vox.

CHEGA and Vox may have some links, on social media, but overall, there seems to be not a big proximity between both, as one would think because Portugal and Spain are like "sister" countries. Ventura never campaign with Meloni, from what I'm aware. He did campaign with Le Pen, which he is very close, and was to campaign with Salvini but that was canceled due to the Italian political crisis. Ventura is also close to Salvini. Also, CHEGA is member of ID not ECR, which makes him closer to Le Pen/Salvini, rather than Meloni/Abascal.

i swear i saw a photo of ventura and meloni some where and isnt vox only in the ecr because of lega having tieds to regionals parties?

I'm not aware of any photo of them, to be honest. Yes, Abascal and Salvini have feud, it seems, because of  Salvini's ties with pro-independence movements, and the Catalonia issue is a big divide between both men and parties.

[Flyersfan232]

i see chega leader likeing some of vox social media pages. and chega leader did campagin with meloni of brother of italy who party is apart of the ecr with vox.

CHEGA and Vox may have some links, on social media, but overall, there seems to be not a big proximity between both, as one would think because Portugal and Spain are like "sister" countries. Ventura never campaign with Meloni, from what I'm aware. He did campaign with Le Pen, which he is very close, and was to campaign with Salvini but that was canceled due to the Italian political crisis. Ventura is also close to Salvini. Also, CHEGA is member of ID not ECR, which makes him closer to Le Pen/Salvini, rather than Meloni/Abascal.

i swear i saw a photo of ventura and meloni some where and isnt vox only in the ecr because of lega having tieds to regionals parties?

I'm not aware of any photo of them, to be honest. Yes, Abascal and Salvini have feud, it seems, because of  Salvini's ties with pro-independence movements, and the Catalonia issue is a big divide between both men and parties.

it seem just to be something keeping them being apart of the same group but not for respecting one another https://www.eutimes.net/2019/09/populist-vox-leader-salvini-was-ousted-from-government-by-eu-plot/

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem seat projection based on their February poll: (in parentheses, the 2019 seats results)

Seat projection:
(116 needed for a majority)

111/118 PS (108)
    75/80 PSD (79)
    10/19 CHEGA (1)
      7/12 BE (19)
        5/9 CDU (12)
        3/5 IL (1)
           2 CDS (5)
           2 PAN (4)

Share of the vote % of the poll:

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

39.3% PS (+0.3)
27.2% PSD (-0.8 )
  7.3% CHEGA (+1.8 )
  6.9% BE (+0.4)
  4.8% CDU (-0.5)
  3.0% IL (+1.7)
  2.5% CDS (+0.4)  
  2.0% PAN (-0.2)
  7.0% Others/Invalid (-3.1)

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 February 2021. Polled 1,022 voters. MoE of 2.90%.

[Mike88]

2021 Local elections: Update on the state of the races and candidacies.

Lisbon: PSD/CDS has yet to announce a candidate but it seems that, currently, the most likely candidate is Ricardo Batista Leite. Internal polling suggests that Carlos Moedas is the best name to face the PS, but it seems that Mr Moedas is unavailable to run. The name will probably be revealed during March. PS will ran incumbent mayor Fernando Medina for a 2nd full term.

Porto: Rui Moreira is the overwhelming favourite and PS/PSD are having problems in finding candidates. PSD seems to be considering Rio's deputy when he was mayor and the President of Paranhos parish, the only PSD parish in Porto city. The PS has several names, including the party's spokesperson José Luís Carneiro, Manuel Pizarro, the party's candidate in 2013 and 2017, and Tiago Barbosa Ribeiro.

Coimbra: In the "university city", the PS is fearing a PSD/CDS+Independent alliance that could unseat incumbent PS mayor Manuel Machado. However, this alliance is dividing the local PSD party after the national leadership rejected the candidate approved by the local party. Negotiations between PSD and the Independent movement "We are Coimbra", which achieved 16% in 2017, are still ongoing.

Évora: The incumbent CDU mayor is allowed to run for a 3rd term, but the colapse of CDU in recent elections could make this city a very vulnerable one for CDU and a very strong target for the PS. A new independent movement was announced that will run which could shake things up in the capital of the Alentejo. In a funny note, the PSD candidate for Évora is called Henrique Sim-Sim (Henry Yes-Yes). xD

Setúbal: In this city, the incumbent CDU mayor is barred from running again, making this city another target for the PS. The Socialists are expected to run Ana Catarina Mendes, Costa's deputy in the PS. PSD is expected to run Fernando Negrão as candidate, a re-run of his candidacy in 2005 when he polled 25%, one of the best results of the PSD in the city, but it's very unlikely he will repeat the same share.

Sintra: Incumbent PS mayor, Basílio Horta, is expected to run for a 3rd term, but the PSD/CDS is having problems in finding a candidate. Rumours have come and gone that Santana Lopes would be the candidate, but the most likely scenario is the repetition of Marco Almeida's 2017 PSD run.

Almada: One of the shock results of 2017, when PS stole it from CDU, the Communist-Green alliance is running the still mayor of Setúbal, Maria das Dores Meira, as a candidate to face incumbent mayor, Inês de Medeiros. The race is expected to be very close.

Funchal: Another too close to call race. Polls are suggesting a very close race, but the certain PSD/CDS coalition has yet to announce the name that will face the incumbent PS mayor, Miguel Gouveia. The most talked about name is the Vice President of the Madeira government, Pedro Calado, and this race could have an impact in the stability of the current PSD/CDS coalition governing the Madeira region.

Will update more info about other cities when available.

[Flyersfan232]

2021 Local elections: Update on the state of the races and candidacies.

Lisbon: PSD/CDS has yet to announce a candidate but it seems that, currently, the most likely candidate is Ricardo Batista Leite. Internal polling suggests that Carlos Moedas is the best name to face the PS, but it seems that Mr Moedas is unavailable to run. The name will probably be revealed during March. PS will ran incumbent mayor Fernando Medina for a 2nd full term.

Porto: Rui Moreira is the overwhelming favourite and PS/PSD are having problems in finding candidates. PSD seems to be considering Rio's deputy when he was mayor and the President of Paranhos parish, the only PSD parish in Porto city. The PS has several names, including the party's spokesperson José Luís Carneiro, Manuel Pizarro, the party's candidate in 2013 and 2017, and Tiago Barbosa Ribeiro.

Coimbra: In the "university city", the PS is fearing a PSD/CDS+Independent alliance that could unseat incumbent PS mayor Manuel Machado. However, this alliance is dividing the local PSD party after the national leadership rejected the candidate approved by the local party. Negotiations between PSD and the Independent movement "We are Coimbra", which achieved 16% in 2017, are still ongoing.

Évora: The incumbent CDU mayor is allowed to run for a 3rd term, but the colapse of CDU in recent elections could make this city a very vulnerable one for CDU and a very strong target for the PS. A new independent movement was announced that will run which could shake things up in the capital of the Alentejo. In a funny note, the PSD candidate for Évora is called Henrique Sim-Sim (Henry Yes-Yes). xD

Setúbal: In this city, the incumbent CDU mayor is barred from running again, making this city another target for the PS. The Socialists are expected to run Ana Catarina Mendes, Costa's deputy in the PS. PSD is expected to run Fernando Negrão as candidate, a re-run of his candidacy in 2005 when he polled 25%, one of the best results of the PSD in the city, but it's very unlikely he will repeat the same share.

Sintra: Incumbent PS mayor, Basílio Horta, is expected to run for a 3rd term, but the PSD/CDS is having problems in finding a candidate. Rumours have come and gone that Santana Lopes would be the candidate, but the most likely scenario is the repetition of Marco Almeida's 2017 PSD run.

Almada: One of the shock results of 2017, when PS stole it from CDU, the Communist-Green alliance is running the still mayor of Setúbal, Maria das Dores Meira, as a candidate to face incumbent mayor, Inês de Medeiros. The race is expected to be very close.

Funchal: Another too close to call race. Polls are suggesting a very close race, but the certain PSD/CDS coalition has yet to announce the name that will face the incumbent PS mayor, Miguel Gouveia. The most talked about name is the Vice President of the Madeira government, Pedro Calado, and this race could have an impact in the stability of the current PSD/CDS coalition governing the Madeira region.

Will update more info about other cities when available.

Was expanding the regionals assemblies to other regions every considered???

[Mike88]

Was expanding the regionals assemblies to other regions every considered???

Yes, regionalisation has been debated for decades now and was even subject to a referendum in 1998 that failed 64% to 36%. The map proposed in that referendum was completely ridiculous, creating 8 new regions. The current format proposed 5 new regions: North, Center, Lisbon, Alentejo and Algarve. However, like I said above, it's still being debated with polls suggesting a slight advantage for the yes but nothing definitive. Personally, I don't support the creation of 5 new regions with all the structure that weighs. If Portugal already has issues in financing one Parliament, 2 autonomous regions and 308 municipalities, how would 5 new regions work? That's the debate.

[Flyersfan232]

Was expanding the regionals assemblies to other regions every considered???

Yes, regionalisation has been debated for decades now and was even subject to a referendum in 1998 that failed 64% to 36%. The map proposed in that referendum was completely ridiculous, creating 8 new regions. The current format proposed 5 new regions: North, Center, Lisbon, Alentejo and Algarve. However, like I said above, it's still being debated with polls suggesting a slight advantage for the yes but nothing definitive. Personally, I don't support the creation of 5 new regions with all the structure that weighs. If Portugal already has issues in financing one Parliament, 2 autonomous regions and 308 municipalities, how would 5 new regions work? That's the debate.

so its unlikely to happen?

[Mike88]

Was expanding the regionals assemblies to other regions every considered???

Yes, regionalisation has been debated for decades now and was even subject to a referendum in 1998 that failed 64% to 36%. The map proposed in that referendum was completely ridiculous, creating 8 new regions. The current format proposed 5 new regions: North, Center, Lisbon, Alentejo and Algarve. However, like I said above, it's still being debated with polls suggesting a slight advantage for the yes but nothing definitive. Personally, I don't support the creation of 5 new regions with all the structure that weighs. If Portugal already has issues in financing one Parliament, 2 autonomous regions and 308 municipalities, how would 5 new regions work? That's the debate.

so its unlikely to happen?

In the near future, yes it's unlikely, there's not much political will to go ahead with it. However, the government is starting to give more powers to city halls in a kind of "mini regionalisation". City halls are starting to have more powers in dealing with healthcare, education and others topics, but, local officials argue that the government is handing over more powers to city halls but financing continues to drop, which makes things quite difficult for local governments.

[Mike88]

2021 Local elections: Update on the state of the races and candidacies.

Adding to this, here's the current state of parties in the local level:

Mayors by party: (% of mayors)

160 PS (52.0%)
  98 PSD (31.8%)
  24 CDU (7.8%)
  17 Independent (5.5%)
    6 CDS (2.0%)
    1 JPP (0.3%)
    1 NC (0.3%)
    1 Livre (0.3%)
    0 BE (0.0%)
    0 PAN (0.0%)

Parish Presidents by party:* (% of presidents)
*after by-elections between 2017-2020

1,302 PS (42.2%)
1,164 PSD (37.7%)
   402 Independent (13.0%)
   140 CDU (4.5%)
     62 CDS (2.0%)
       7 Livre (0.2%)
       5 JPP (0.2%)
       3 NC (0.1%)
       0 BE (0.0%)
       0 PAN (0.0%)

The PS vs PSD gap is huge, 62, which makes it literally impossible for the PSD to aim to surpass the PS in terms of cities. However, and unlike 2013 and 2017, the PS has more mayors barred from running again, a total of 19 against the 14 of the PSD. At least 9 PS mayors, that were term limited, ran for Parliament in the 2019 general elections and were succeeded by their deputies, who can run for a full term.

In terms of parishes, the margin between PS and PSD is much more narrow, however, the PSD suffered some blows during by-elections between 2017 and last year. The party lost 3 parishes, some to the PS and at least 2 for CDS, while the other parties hold on.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo is upset with Costa's lack of planning in reopening the country:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1364295468298166274

Marcelo uncomfortable with lack of government planning

With the number of new cases, deaths, hospitalizations and ICUs dropping massively in the last few weeks, although the mass testing program the government announced isn't still operational and testing is dropping from an average of 70,000 per day in January to just 30,000 in February, a debate has started on how to reopen the country after this 2nd lockdown. This time, Costa is very nervous and cautious in opening the country rapidly after the several missteps in the last few months, and is delaying the presentation of a plan to reopen the country. According to the media, President Marcelo is very upseat and uncomfortable with Costa's lack of planning, while the government is responding that they are talking with specialists to define the criteria to forge a plan. Government sources say that it's still very soon to talk about reopening the country because it could give "the wrong signal" to the population and make everything worse, as the risk of another wave hasn't gone away.

At the same time, several people, from doctors, teachers, parents, economists, etc, signed an open letter pleading the government to reopen some schools, like 1st grade and kindergardens, in the first days of March. However, a poll released today, by Aximage, in JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio, shows that more than 80% of the electorate wants schools closed until mid March. A majority also disapproves the government's handling in the preparation of online schooling:

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

Q1: Do you think schools should be closed until the second half of March?

82% Yes
15% No
  3% Undecided

Q2: In your opinion, until when should schools be closed?

42% Until Easter
27% Until mid March
15% Until the summer
  9% Until May
17% Undecided

Q3: How to rate the government's handling of school closures and the preparation for online schooling?

40% Disapprove
29% Approve
28% Average
  3% Undecided

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 February 2021. Polled 822 voters. MoE of 3.40%.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

2021 Local elections: Update on the state of the races and candidacies.

Adding to this, here's the current state of parties in the local level:

Mayors by party: (% of mayors)

160 PS (52.0%)
  98 PSD (31.8%)
  24 CDU (7.8%)
  17 Independent (5.5%)
    6 CDS (2.0%)
    1 JPP (0.3%)
    1 NC (0.3%)
    1 Livre (0.3%)
    0 BE (0.0%)
    0 PAN (0.0%)

Parish Presidents by party:* (% of presidents)
*after by-elections between 2017-2020

1,302 PS (42.2%)
1,164 PSD (37.7%)
   402 Independent (13.0%)
   140 CDU (4.5%)
     62 CDS (2.0%)
       7 Livre (0.2%)
       5 JPP (0.2%)
       3 NC (0.1%)
       0 BE (0.0%)
       0 PAN (0.0%)

The PS vs PSD gap is huge, 62, which makes it literally impossible for the PSD to aim to surpass the PS in terms of cities. However, and unlike 2013 and 2017, the PS has more mayors barred from running again, a total of 19 against the 14 of the PSD. At least 9 PS mayors, that were term limited, ran for Parliament in the 2019 general elections and were succeeded by their deputies, who can run for a full term.

In terms of parishes, the margin between PS and PSD is much more narrow, however, the PSD suffered some blows during by-elections between 2017 and last year. The party lost 3 parishes, some to the PS and at least 2 for CDS, while the other parties hold on.

I am very surprised that BE doesn't even have a single parish president, considering that it's pretty clearly the third largest party in Portugal, and especially compared to Livre (of course CDU and CDS are smaller too, but the former has a vote very concentrated in a specific region and the latter is normally allied with PSD so it's not surprising that they do better at this).
And what are JPP and NC? Regional parties found in the Azores or Madeira? Never heard of them before.



Also, any new updates about other major cities? Braga? Faro? Ponta Delgada?

[Mike88]

I am very surprised that BE doesn't even have a single parish president, considering that it's pretty clearly the third largest party in Portugal, and especially compared to Livre (of course CDU and CDS are smaller too, but the former has a vote very concentrated in a specific region and the latter is normally allied with PSD so it's not surprising that they do better at this).
And what are JPP and NC? Regional parties found in the Azores or Madeira? Never heard of them before.



Also, any new updates about other major cities? Braga? Faro? Ponta Delgada?

BE has a very weak local party structure and normally only runs in the big cities or medium size cities. Like in general elections, BE fails to win parishes because its main strongholds are the big urban areas and in these areas, in local elections, the leftwing vote concentrates their votes in either PS or CDU, or even both depending on the race in question. That one Livre city is a Livre-PS coalition in Felgueiras, Porto, because in 2017, there were tensions in the local PS on who should run and the favourite PS candidate decided to run alone and gained the support of Livre. The PS, seeing the mess they had made, decided to support him also. CDS is strong in some cities, mainly rural ones or where the rightwing vote is overwhelming. The rural areas of Viana, Viseu and Aveiro are fertile ground for CDS.

JPP is the "Together for the People" party. It's a party with roots in Madeira formed by the mayor of Santa Cruz, Madeira's 2nd largest municipality, in 2014 after winning the mayor race in 2013, in Santa Cruz, as an independent. The party is only strong in Madeira. NC is "We, the Citizens" party and currently holds the city of Oliveira de Frades, Viseu. It's a small center-right party, that won that city from the PSD, in 2017, after tensions in the local PSD and the leftwing opposition to the PSD in that city concentrated all their votes in NC to defeat the PSD/CDS ticket.

Because of the pandemic, parties are delaying the announcement of candidates and currently there's not a lot of info as one would expect for this time in a normal election year. Nonetheless, here's some updates on those cities listed above:

Braga seems that will be a safe hold for PSD/CDS, the district as whole, the "Portuguese Ohio", has been trending PSD in the last few years and was one of the few places the PSD made gains in both 2013 and 2017;

Faro is always too close to call. That city has always very competitive elections and is impossible to predict, and it will be a close PSD vs PS race there, with the PSD holding power since 2009. Since 2001, the best winning margin for a party was 6% in 2017 and the closest 0.42% in 2009.

Ponta Delgada has always been governed by the PSD, with a short break between 1989 and 1993, but recently has had some problems as since José Manuel Bolieiro, current President of the Azores, left the post of mayor of Ponta Delgada, the city has had two different mayors. It's also a very too close to call race as the PSD and PS normally are close, although, till now, the PSD has almost always prevailed. The results in the Azores will also have an impact in the stability of the fragile PSD/CDS/PPM coalition with the outside support of CHEGA and IL.

Other cities have also some updates: In Albufeira, Algarve, there will be a split in the PSD with the former PSD mayor running as an Independent and he will face the incumbent PSD mayor; In Batalha, Leiria, the former PS mayor of Leiria, Raul Castro, will run in order to defeat the incumbent PSD mayor. In Barcelos city, Braga, the incumbent PS mayor faces several corruption scandals, although he's barred from running for a 4th term, but the PSD is very divided on which candidate to choose.

[Mike88]

2021 local elections: Independent mayors will meet, this Saturday, to discuss a possible creation of an "Independents Party" to run in national elections and put pressure on PS and PSD.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1364566356285349893

Independent mayors meet on Saturday to discuss forming a party

Even though PS and PSD already said they are open to changes in the electoral law they approved in June 2020, the controversy continues. The 17 Independent mayors will meet this Saturday in São João da Pesqueira, Viseu, to discuss what paths they should persue. On the table is the creation of an "Independents Party" in order to dodge the changes passed by PS and PSD and put pressure in the two main parties. They will also discuss what they want to be changed or reverted in the law. The changes in the electoral law for local elections are currently being analysed by the Constitutional Court after the Ombudsman said the law was unconstitutional, in her view.

However, creating a party for the 2021 local election, right now, seems almost impossible due to time limits, as for a party to be legalized it needs a minimum of 7,500 signatures and the Constitutional Court normally takes months to approve a party.

[Mike88]

Controversy as a fake lockdown end plan spreads on social media and the government is forced to say it's fake:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1364950897000931330

Observador chronicler is the author of the false deconfinition plan: “It was shared in a closed group of friends”

It's the controversy of the day in Portugal. At a time when the government is being pressured and criticized for not presenting a plan to reopen the country, this morning, a so called "plan" started circulating on social media. The plan, a single PDF page, was deemed as real by many people but the government was forced to intervene and sent out a press release saying the plan was fake and that it will ask the DA office to investigate this. The media is already revealing the identity of who made the "fake" plan: it's an Observador newspaper, aligned with the rightwing, chronicler named Carlos Macedo e Cunha. To the media, he said he did the plan to discuss it with friends in a close chat room on WhatsApp and then presenting it to the government, but that someone stole it, put the governmental logo on it and posted in on social media.

[Mike88]

Lisbon: PSD/CDS has yet to announce a candidate but it seems that, currently, the most likely candidate is Ricardo Batista Leite. Internal polling suggests that Carlos Moedas is the best name to face the PS, but it seems that Mr Moedas is unavailable to run. The name will probably be revealed during March. PS will ran incumbent mayor Fernando Medina for a 2nd full term.

There seems to have been an U-turn in Mr Moedas decision:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1365015601303879682

Carlos Moedas meets with Rio about candidacy to Lisbon city.

The media is reporting it as set and done and that the goal is to forge a PSD/CDS/IL coalition in Lisbon. Rui Rio has also confirmed it.

[Mike88]

2021 local elections: Internal PS poll on Braga city leaked by the local press.

Braga city, 183,000 inhabitants - PSD/CDS/PPM incumbent

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

52.9% PSD/CDS/PPM (+0.8 )
27.7% PS (-0.2)
  9.7% CDU (+0.1)
  5.2% BE (+0.4)
  4.6% Others/Invalid (-1.0)

Poll conducted by DOMP polling company during late January/early February 2021.

[Mike88]

2021 local elections: PS and PSD deciding the fate of almost 100 mayors/local officials involved in corruption investigations.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1365372533453815808

With two dozen accused candidates, PSD and PS want to evaluate case by case who runs again

In this fall local elections, several mayors, eligible to run again, are accused or being investigated for corruption. At least two dozen mayors from PS and PSD, plus almost a 100 local officials from councillors to parish presidents, are involved in corrupt deals and their fate is being evaluated by the leadership of the two main parties. Regarding the "Operation Éter", a corrupt investigation where local officials made deals to construct public facilities with companies of the former chairman of the Tourism of the North, the PSD has more than 4 mayors accused/investigated, while the PS has more than 5 mayors accused. All of them lead cities which are strongholds of either the PS or PSD. Other corrupt investigations like the" Web Operation" specially affects the PS and one of their strongholds, Santo Tirso, where the historic mayor of that city, Joaquim Couto, released from jail on bail. He is accused of pressuring other mayors, from all parties, to do business with his wife's company. The current mayor of Santo Tirso, Mr Couto deputy, is also accused of corrupt deals of his own.

The most newsworthy investigation is "Operation Tutti-Frutti", where many mayors, parish presidents and members of PS/PSD are accused of forging deals between them is exchange of payments and direct agreements. This investigation affects the cities of Lisbon (PS), Oeiras (Ind), Barcelos (PS) and Famalicão (PSD). CHEGA leader André Ventura was also raided because of this investigation as one of his advisors is being accused. Other investigation, "Operation Final Route", involves only PSD mayors, or former ones, which are accused of forging shady deals with Transdev transport company worth more than 22 million euros. One of the accused, Francisco Lopes, is the PSD candidate in Lamego city. The most recent investigation relates to fraud in the Covid-19 vaccination plan and it involves the mayors of Portimão and Reguengos de Monsaraz, both from the PS.

Expresso newspaper says that the 2 main parties are analysing each case and seeing how severe the accusations are towards every single candidate. The PSD argues that they will not make "public judgments" of the candidates and that only those condemned in a Court of law will be rejected as candidates. The PS follows an identical path.

[Mike88]

2021 local elections: Independent mayors demand changes in the electoral law until 31 March.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1365678082212859904

Independent mayors demand changes to the electoral law by March 31

The meeting between the 17 independent mayors was held, yesterday, in São João da Pesqueira, Viseu, and they demanded that the two main parties, PS and PSD, persue changes in the local election electoral law until March 31. They accuse both parties of creating a problem and it's now time for them to correct the mistake adding that the current law doesn't provide the minimum conditions for Independent movement to run in local elections. If PS and PSD fail to agree on changes, the independent mayors will start the process to create a "Party of the Independents", like Porto mayor Rui Moreira proposed, however they agreed this isn't their goal and they are relatively confident that PS and PSD will change the law. The PS has already proposed some changes by easing the collect of signatures and allowing independent movements of using logos in the ballots. The PSD is also open to changes but hasn't, yet, proposed any changes.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspaper and TSF radio:

Vote share %:

37.6% PS (-2.3)
26.5% PSD (-0.1)
  7.7% BE (+0.5)
  6.5% CHEGA (-1.0)
  5.8% CDU (+0.8 )
  5.7% IL (+2.2)
  4.0% PAN (+0.5)
  1.3% Livre (+0.7)
  0.8% CDS (nc)
  4.1% Others/Invalid (-1.4)

Preferred PM:

54% António Costa (+1)
20% Rui Rio (+1)
19% Neither (-3)
  3% Both (+1)
  4% Undecided (nc)

Main opposition figure:

33% Rui Rio (-1)
33% André Ventura (+4)
10% Catarina Martins (-4)
  5% Jerónimo de Sousa (+1)
  2% João Cotrim Figueiredo (new)
17% Undecided (-2)

Government approval rating:

50% Positive (+3)
33% Negative (+2)
15% Average (-4)
  2% Undecided (-1)

President of the Republic approval rating:

68% Positive (+6)
18% Negative (-4)
12% Average (-2)
  2% Undecided (-1)

Oppostion approval rating:

41% Negative (+1)
28% Positive (+3)
25% Average (-1)
  6% Undecided (-3)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 February 2021. Polled 822 voters. MoE of 3.40%.

[Mike88]

2021 local elections: PSD and CDS headquarters in Vila do Conde, Porto, vandalized.

https://twitter.com/revistaSABADO/status/1366019167401504773

Portugal - PSD leader Vila do Conde targeted by threats.

During the early hours of Sunday, the headquarters of PSD and CDS in Vila do Conde city, Porto, were vandalized with glass windows shattered and the local PSD leader has also been receiving threats by text messages with some saying "Be carefull!", or "I will be your biggest terror". He added that this is the 2nd time this year that the party headquarters is vandalized. He says he has already reported the incident to the police and says he has no clue who's behind it. However, he raises the coincidence of the threats with the approval of the lists and candidates for the fall local elections.

(Wasn't aware how tense and dramatic things are currently in my hometown "twin" city).

[Mike88]

2021 local elections: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa pressured Carlos Moedas to run in Lisbon.

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1366667297826471942

Marcelo got involved in Moedas candidacy and Rio accelerated.

Renascença radio reports today on the back and forward behind the scenes of the Lisbon PSD candidate pick. For months now, PSD leader Rui Rio was hoping that Carlos Moedas, former secretary under Passos Coelho government and former EU Commissioner for Research, Science and Innovation, would accept his invitation to run as candidate. Mr Moedas, however, was undecided as he currently holds a very confortable position on Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation. Plus, President Marcelo was one of the people that Moedas talked to in order to convince him to run. The radio report also says that Marcelo wants a strong "center-right front". While Mr Moedas, was thinking on what to do, the PSD ran a series of candidates and according to the report, former CDS leader, Paulo Portas, internal PSD polling showed Portas defeating incumbent PS mayor Fernando Medina. Mr Portas, however, declined to run.

The report goes on to say that ultimately what made Mr Moedas decide to run was his possible political future, as he wants to see if he has the capacity to be a strong campaigner. But, PSD insiders say that Mr Moedas could want more and that Lisbon city hall could be a "trampoline" to higher options, like the PSD leadership if the PSD performs badly in the fall local elections.

[Mike88]

The saga of the new Lisbon airport continues: After the Aviation regulator "rejected" the project, the PSD does a U-turn and is now open to change the law that killed the project.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1366808636002103298

Airport: Rui Rio available to help Government remove veto power from municipalities to the airport

In the International discussion forum, in the Portugal's topic, there's the full story. The new Lisbon airport idea, started in 1969, has passed by several locations, but in the last few years it has been concentrated in 2 areas: Montijo or Alcochete, both in the south bank of the Tagus river. A brief recap: for years the most acceptable location was Ota, a small parish in the north bank of the Tagus river and 50 kms away from Lisbon, but the cost would be enormous as the area isn't flat and land movements would be a big problem. This happened during Sócrates PS 1st cabinet (2005-2009), when the then PM was a full "Ota supporter" while the opposition, the PSD, pressed for Alcochete. But Ota became more and more unpopular and even though the government tried to sell the idea, with the then minister of Infrastructures, Mário Lino, famous and hilarious remark: "In the South bank, jamais, jamais!" and that "it was desert". Of course, the government abandoned the Ota project and choose Alcochete. But, then the 2008 International crisis began and the project froze. Fast forward to 2015, and Portugal was exiting the crisis, the economy was growing and with a big tourism surge, Lisbon's Portela Airport was becoming too small, the then PSD/CDS government decided to choose Montijo to built the new airport. The new government led by Costa continued the project, but then the PSD changed it's mind, and now said that Alcochete, again, was the best option.

And here we are. Last year, the issue about the current aviation law arose when the government found out that in order to have the project approved, city councils had to give an unanimous approval. Moita city hall refused to approve the project and Environment reports also said that the new airport would clash with the Tagus Estuary Natural Reserve, which is one of Europe's most important wetlands. The government dismissed the report and Moita city hall and pressed ahead with the project and asked the PSD to help them in changing the law, but the party refused as it didn't want to change a law for a specific project. Now, with the "No" from the aviation regulator, the PSD is open to change the law because the government is now open to the idea of Alcochete, even though it was the PSD that brought up Montijo in the first place. This will probably take time as new reports will be done and the government will compared them between Montijo and Alcochete, but the media is already accusing the PSD of doing an amazing flip-flop.

[Mike88]

More local election polling: Funchal city, again.

Intercampus poll on Funchal city, 110,000 inhabitants, PS Incumbent:

Vote share %:
Scenario 1 - Pedro Calado, Madeira's deputy President, as PSD/CDS candidate:

49.1% PSD/CDS
37.9% PS/BE/NC/PDR
  3.4% CHEGA
  2.4% CDU
  2.1% IL
  5.1% Others/Invalid*

Scenario 2 - Eduardo Jesus, Madeira's Tourism secretary, as PSD/CDS candidate:

41.5% PSD/CDS
41.5% PS/BE/NC/PDR
  4.7% CHEGA
  3.6% CDU
  2.2% Independent
  6.5% Others/Invalid*

Scenario 3 - Manuel António Correia, Madeira's former Environment secretary, as PSD/CDS candidate:

42.1% PSD/CDS
41.7% PS/BE/NC/PDR
  4.0% CHEGA
  2.6% IL
  2.6% Independent
  2.2% CDU
  4.8% Others/Invalid*

Poll conducted between 19 and 28 February 2021. Polled 406 voters. MoE of 4.90%

*Listed only candidates above 2%.

[Mike88]

Politico.eu report on Portugal's "ghost" EU presidency:

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1367449459723014149

COVID-19 may have relegated Portugal to having a “ghost presidency” unlikely to hold flashy summits — but that hasn’t stopped Lisbon from spending as if it was expecting in-person events to be the norm during its six months leading the Council of the EU.

Since taking the reins of the rotating Council presidency in January, Portugal has signed contracts worth hundreds of thousands of euros to acquire equipment, drinks and even clothing for events that are unlikely to be held in person.

The presidency spent €260,591 to equip a press center in Lisbon — even though the presidency’s press briefings are being held online and foreign journalists aren’t traveling to the Portuguese capital. It agreed to pay a wine company €35,785 for drinks — at a time when few people are gathering. And it signed a €39,780 contract to purchase 360 shirts and 180 suits — at a time when many people are working from home.

In addition to the expenditures, watchdog groups have expressed unease at corporate sponsorships the Portuguese presidency has signed with various companies, including some that appear to go against signature EU policies and one that is known as a soft landing pad for Portuguese politicians.

“The presidency seems to be less about work meetings and more about selling Portugal to the outside world,” said Susana Coroado, president of Transparência e Integridade, the Portuguese wing of Transparency International.
(...)

To be fair, sometimes I forget the Portugal presides the EU council right now. The media here makes basically no coverage of this and the government doesn't seem to invested in it also. Now, 180 new suits for chauffeurs is something soo Portuguese that it doesn't surprise me.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo had lunch with PM Costa in the official residence of the PM and presided the Council of Ministers meeting to mark the end of his 1st term:

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1367507400538820612

A bonsai for Marcelo: Costa wants "strategic cooperation" for forest reform

To mark the end of his 1st term, and the beginning of his second one, President Marcelo paid a visit to the PM's official residence and had lunch with António Costa. The President also presided the Council of Ministers meeting held later on the day. The main focus of the meeting was forest reform and both agreed that a big reform of forest management is needed in Portugal. PM Costa said that, on his part, Marcelo can count with a full "strategic cooperation" from the government to persue the reform process in forests. In a sign of "cooperation" Costa offered Marcelo a bonsai.

Today was also the official presentation of the PSD candidate for Lisbon Mayor, Carlos Moedas. Mr Moedas presented officially his candidacy in the Superior Technical Institute of Lisbon, where Moedas got his degree in engineering. The presentation was without any party leaders and was only Moedas and the media. He has already released his first online ad:
https://twitter.com/ppdpsd/status/1367552404456153088

"My name is Carlos Moedas. I am counting on you to demand more, to aspire more and so, together, we can go further. For Lisbon and for the Lisboners".

New times for Lisbon.
# Carlosmoedas21 # autarquicas2021 @Moedas

With the slogan, "New times for Lisbon", Moedas said his decision to run for Lisbon mayor is his life's major decision. He went on to say he wants to lead a major candidacy to unite all the non-socialists, moderate and progressive forces in order to defeat the 14 year rule of the PS in the city. He adds that the times ahead will force a major "reconstruction" of Lisbon in terms of economics, social, culture and environment and that he's ready to face that challenge. He is expected to lead a very broad front with the already six parties supporting him: PSD-CDS-Alliance-RIR-MPT-PPM. Moedas is also in negotiations with the Liberal Initiative (IL) and the party will make a decision in the next few days.