🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

It seems that CHEGA has retracted their initial position: (not surprising at all)

Rightwing parties willing to forge an agreement. All in the hands of the PSD.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1320855981773983745

LMAO

I mean we already knew that Ventura and co. are full of sh**t but this is beyond hilarious... so much for rejeitamos acordos com o "sistema"

By the way I notice PPM won another parish outside of Corvo, is that normal?

It seems that PSD wants CDS and PPM in the government, while CHEGA and IL don't want to go to government, but support a PSD minority only. But, their "retraction" is anything but surprising. The PS is also hoping if it can make a coalition with CDS and maybe PAN.

Flores island had the most insane swings in these elections. In 2016, CDU won the island and this time they only got 3.2% of the votes. The CDU MP didn't run for reelection and instead his sister ran. It didn't work out. That parish was won by PPM perhaps, IMO, of it's proximity to Corvo but PPM scored big numbers across the islands, mainly in Santa Maria.

Lol this is another thing beyond hilarious. The magic of local politics. Also inb4 Flores is sexist.

Do you think that PS + CDS + PAN is the most likely government at the moment?

I don't know if it was a personal decision by the CDU MP or a party decision. However, he was very popular but putting his sister on the ballot isn't the same thing.

To be honest, I don't know what will happen. Either a PS or a PSD government are possible. The results were so surprising that prediction are a risky bet right now.

[Mike88]

2021 budget: Debate started today with PS and BE at each other's throats.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1321204652290035712

State Budget 2021: Government and BE bring tension to Parliament. Right predicts end of cycle

António Costa hammered totally BE's decision to vote against the 2021 budget. In the first day of debate of the 2021 budget, Costa said that the Left Bloc's decision was "selfish". He even compared the Bloc's decision with the infamous "irrevocable" resignation of Paulo Portas in 2013. However, he said there can still be common ground between both parties. BE, on the other hand, accused of "deserting" the NHS, by not investing more and accused the government of joining with the right in terms of labour laws. The media says Costa and the PS are painting BE as an irresponsible party and that the strategy is to discredit and try to win voters from BE.

On the right, the PSD accused Costa of bad fiscal forecasts, highlighting the warnings and forecast of the Public Finance council that say the government is overconfident about fiscal revenues. Rio also asked Costa about TAP airlines and the Novo Banco impacts in the budget. During the debate, there was a tense moment between PCP leader, Jerónimo de Sousa, and André Ventura. As Jerónimo was starting to speak, Ventura started laughing in which Jerónimo replied: "Are you finding it funny? You are not funny at all". PS and PCP MPs applauded while PSD leader Rui Rio started laughing.

Adding to this, a poll released today by JN and TSF radio, conducted by Aximage, shows that a majority of voters say the budget should pass with the votes of BE and PCP. Even BE voters say the budget should have their party's support:

Q1: Should the 2021 budget pass with the votes of BE and PCP?

60% Yes
14% No
27% Undecided

By party:

BE: 68% Yes; PS: 86% Yes; PSD: 64% Yes; CDU: 61%

Q2: Should the government resign if the budget fails?

67% No
17% Yes
16% Undecided

Poll conducted between 22 and 26 October 2020. Polled 694 voters. MoE of 3.70%

[Mike88]

2021 budget: The budget passes the first vote by just 3 votes, as expected.

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1321523127499677696

OE2021 approved in general with tHe abstention from the PCP, PAN, ENP and non-attached deputies

As expected, the 2021 budget passed the first test in the general vote. The PS was the sole party voting in favour, 108, with PSD, BE, CDS, CHEGA and IL voting against, 105. PCP, PEV, PAN and the two independent MPs abstained. The government said the budget had to pass as the country could not afford not having a budget at this crucial period and, after the vote, Costa said today's vote was a very important step in order to have a good budget for the NHS and fight the economic crisis.

PSD trashed, once again, the budget saying it looks like a vegan strogonoff, and it only pleases PCP and PAN, and the the economy is like Wally as no one can find any economic policy in the budget. BE continued to criticize the government's lack of funding in the NHS and others.

Also, Ventura wrote a letter to Rui Rio about a possible agreement in the Azores:

https://twitter.com/SolOnline/status/1321409165550604289

Azores. Ventura defines Chega's 'conditions' to negotiate with PSD.

André Ventura wrote a letter to PSD leader Rui Rio, citting his conditions for an agreement to form a PSD government in the Azores. Ventura says the PSD has to participate in the Constitutional revision, compromise in the reduction of 50% of people receiving of basic income support in the Azores and define a plan to fight corruption in the islands. Without these conditions, according to him, there's no talks.

But Rui Rio has already said any decisions regarding agreements in the Azores are a decision of PSD-Azores and who knows what will CHEGA-Azores do. Nothing is certain about CHEGA and anything is possible, and I have a hunch Rio will throw Ventura's letter to the garbage.

[crals]

As an Azorean it bothers me that Ventura seems to think this is a matter for the national leadership to settle.

PSD leader Bolieiro was in Terceira today to negotiate with CDS leader Artur Lima. It seems PS and PSD are both trying to get PAN on their side. If Chega decides to abstain it will be up to the 1 PAN MP to decide who will govern.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

2021 budget: The budget passes the first vote by just 3 votes, as expected.

Oh well. I am glad that this play has finally ended, and relatively well. I guess all eyes on the Azores now?

But Rui Rio has already said any decisions regarding agreements in the Azores are a decision of PSD-Azores and who knows what will CHEGA-Azores do. Nothing is certain about CHEGA and anything is possible, and I have a hunch Rio will throw Ventura's letter to the garbage.

As he should.

[Mike88]

As an Azorean it bothers me that Ventura seems to think this is a matter for the national leadership to settle.

PSD leader Bolieiro was in Terceira today to negotiate with CDS leader Artur Lima. It seems PS and PSD are both trying to get PAN on their side. If Chega decides to abstain it will be up to the 1 PAN MP to decide who will govern.

The PSD national leadership has already said it will not interfere in the Azores government negotiations. As for Ventura's demands, for God sake, the Constitution, currently, it's the least of our problems and I don't get the idea of reducing by half the basic income support as Azores has the highest rate of poverty in the whole country. Like I said above, he's inconsistent and I forgot already the number of letters he has written to Rui Rio.

I've read PSD wants CDS+PPM in the government and that the issue is who supports it. Let's see how this unfolds.

2021 budget: The budget passes the first vote by just 3 votes, as expected.

Oh well. I am glad that this play has finally ended, and relatively well. I guess all eyes on the Azores now?

This was the first vote. Now, for a month or so, Parliament will discuss policy by policy and parties can present changes to the budget and if they pass they are included in the budget. PCP said their vote could change if the final text is very different from the current one, however this option probably is unlikely as I don't see how can PCP retract their current position without being even more penalized, electorally that is.

It will be very interesting to see how the Azores situation evolves. A possible agreement on the right could be a "blueprint" for future national agreement, at the same time in the left there seems to be more and more issues.

[Mike88]

PSD leader Bolieiro was in Terceira today to negotiate with CDS leader Artur Lima. It seems PS and PSD are both trying to get PAN on their side. If Chega decides to abstain it will be up to the 1 PAN MP to decide who will govern.

More about that in this report from Observador:
https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1321576450630258689

PSD confident in rightwing government in the Azores. Written agreement may be key to convince Marcelo

José Manuel Bolieiro went to the home of Artur Lima, leader of the CDS, in Porto Martins, on Terceira Island to negotiate this Tuesday, Observador knows. On the same day Vasco Cordeiro entered the same house for the same purpose. The meetings have already started, the phone calls too and, at the first contacts, there is more and more confidence on the right that it will be possible to form a government that will remove the PS from power. And the right-wing “crab” already thinks about the next step: how to convince the representative of the Republic (and Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa) that the right-wing majority is the most stable solution. Observador knows that a written agreement to ensure a minimum of political stability is a strong hypothesis on the table and is being seriously studied by the PSD-Azores regional leader, José Manuel Bolieiro.

(...)

[Mike88]

Azores government formation: PSD, CDS and PPM are in a meeting since mid afternoon to define an agreement.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1322290884923269123

Regional elections: Azores: PSD, PPM and CDS gathered to realize the future of the rightwing front

Regional leaders of PSD, CDS and PPM are still in a meeting in the PSD regional headquarters, in Ponta Delgada, to define the final terms of an agreement between the 3 parties. At the beginning of the meeting, a preliminary agreement between the party was already agreed on and the meeting seems to be to finalize some issues. Now, in order for this agreement to pass, IL and CHEGA have to approve it. Expresso newspaper says, in this weekend's edition, that PSD and CHEGA are already negotiating some kind of parliamentary support.

[Mike88]

Covid-19 restrictions: Court rejects CHEGA's objection to the prohibition of circulating between municipalities during this weekend.

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1322536472378040320

Politics - Supreme Court rejects Chega's precautionary measure against restrictions on movement between municipalities

The Supreme Administrative Court of Lisbon rejected, by a unanimous vote, CHEGA's objection to the prohibition of circulating between municipalities during this weekend as, according to the party, violated the Constitution. The Court also rejected another objection sent by another group not affiliated with any party. The Court said that there is legal background to forbid circulations between municipalities and that this doesn't violate any personal freedoms. André Ventura already reacted by accusing the Court of using legal formalisms to accept a huge violation of the Constitution by the government.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN newspaper/TSF radio:

Vote share %:

35.5% PS (-2.1)
27.0% PSD (+3.1)
10.0% BE (+1.7)
  5.7% CDU (+0.1)
  5.4% CHEGA (-1.4)
  5.2% PAN (+0.4)
  3.2% IL (+0.6)
  1.2% CDS (+0.1) 
  6.4% Others/Invalid (+0.1)

Government approval:

45% Approve (-3)
30% Disapprove (-5)
19% Average (+5)
  6% Undecided (+2)

President of the Republic approval:

60% Approve (-4)
22% Disapprove (+1)
12% Average (-1)
  6% Undecided (+3)

Opposition approval:

38% Disapprove (-7)
27% Approve (-1)
25% Average (+3)
10% Undecided (+5)

Poll conducted between 22 and 26 October 2020. Polled 694 voters. MoE of 3.70%

[Mike88]

Update in the Azores regional government formation:

It seems almost certain that the PS will be booted out of the regional government. PSD, CDS and PPM have reached an agreement to form a rightwing coalition, and now there are negotiations with CHEGA and PAN in order for PSD to have parliamentary support. IL refused any talks but will not vote in favour of a PS government. The PSD-CDS-PPM want also to forge a written agreement to be delivered during this week to the Representative of the Republic in the Azores.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN newspaper/TSF radio on the 2021 Presidential elections:

Vote share %:

62.7% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-2.3)
17.2% Ana Gomes (+4.2)
  7.6% André Ventura (+0.6)
  4.7% Marisa Matias (+0.7)
  1.6% João Ferreira (+0.6)
  1.5% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (new)
  0.3% Tino de Rans (new)
  4.4% Others/Undecided (-3.7)

Poll conducted between 22 and 26 October 2020. Polled 694 voters. MoE of 3.70%

[crals]

Wow CDU really is a sinking ship

[Mike88]

Wow CDU really is a sinking ship

Yeah, things don't look good for CDU. I'm skeptical that their candidate will tie with IL's candidate, but it's very likely they will repeat their disastrous 2016 result. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Tensions are starting to arise in CHEGA because of the Azores:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1323268888646373377

CHEGA Açores vice-president resigns and bulldozes Ventura for “centralist stance”

Tensions between the regional CHEGA and the national leadership are starting to arise. The deputy leader of CHEGA Azores, Orlando Lima, resigned from his post and left the party accusing Ventura of "centralist actions" and for not having any interest in the Azorean situation. He added that governing the Azores is to serve its people and not resolve spats between the "Lisbon elites" or to gain traction in national polls. He also says Ventura's list of demands to the PSD is ridiculous, adding that the region has more important and serious issues.

However, CHEGA Azores said they will indeed support the PSD-CDS-PPM minority in Parliament.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Wtf I love Orlando Lima now?

CHEGA is such a joke. A bad joke.

[Mike88]

Wtf I love Orlando Lima now?

CHEGA is such a joke. A bad joke.

CHEGA, internally, may be the most WTF party in the Portuguese political system. It's a huge mess: former PSD/CDS members mixed with far-right groups mixed with conservative ideologues. And Ventura's actions, of acting like he "owns" CHEGA, which, to be fair, is the reality, makes some members in the party furious. Just look what happened in their party congress last September, or whatever. A mess. But, they are probably here to stay. And, after the PSD-CDS-PPM agreement success, of course they wouldn't say no to supporting a PSD minority. That would be the ultimate contradiction.

[crals]

This is totally unsurprising imo. Like many other right-wing populist parties Chega is a combination of commited right-wingers who want influence and anti-system arsonists who just to protest. Ventura has been sitting on the fence trying to please both sides but it's no longer possible once they're given an opportunity for some power.

[Mike88]

This is totally unsurprising imo. Like many other right-wing populist parties Chega is a combination of commited right-wingers who want influence and anti-system arsonists who just to protest. Ventura has been sitting on the fence trying to please both sides but it's no longer possible once they're given an opportunity for some power.

Indeed. However, his flip-flops on this are ludicrous. Even as we speak, he's "correcting" the CHEGA-Azores leaders by saying the party isn't supporting the PSD-CDS-PPM alliance. It seems he's trying to save his face.

IL is also not making any sense, right now. The PSD-CDS-PPM government is probable, but things are still shaky.

[Mike88]

At the same time, PM Costa asked President Marcelo to call a state of Emergency:

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1323394092819128320

"Softer." President admits state of emergency "very different from the previous one"

PM Costa met today with President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and asked him to call a state of emergency. Only the PS and PSD, the main parties that control 81% of the seats in Parliament, are in favour. PSD leader Rui Rio has already endorsed the idea.

However, in an interview to RTP1, this evening, President Marcelo said the new state of emergency would be "softer" than the one in March, without a total lockdown in order to not kill the economy and avoid social problems.

[Lord Halifax]

Will the State of Emergency include Madeira and the Azores, or only the mainland?

[Mike88]

Will the State of Emergency include Madeira and the Azores, or only the mainland?

I don't think it will include Madeira and Azores. I believe the State of Emergency is just for those 121 municipalities, that gather almost 70% of the population however, that the government defined as critical. Many municipalities in mainland Portugal will probably not have State of Emergency.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Will the State of Emergency include Madeira and the Azores, or only the mainland?

I don't think it will include Madeira and Azores. I believe the State of Emergency is just for those 121 municipalities, that gather almost 70% of the population however, that the government defined as critical. Many municipalities in mainland Portugal will probably not have State of Emergency.

This is because major cities are hit worse than rural areas, I suppose?
And could Madeira and Azores declare State of Emergency for themselves autonomously if they needed to?

[Mike88]

Will the State of Emergency include Madeira and the Azores, or only the mainland?

I don't think it will include Madeira and Azores. I believe the State of Emergency is just for those 121 municipalities, that gather almost 70% of the population however, that the government defined as critical. Many municipalities in mainland Portugal will probably not have State of Emergency.

This is because major cities are hit worse than rural areas, I suppose?
And could Madeira and Azores declare State of Emergency for themselves autonomously if they needed to?

Exactly, the most populated regions, the North and Lisbon, are having huge spikes, especially the North. The map is this:
https://twitter.com/asofia_santana/status/1322638717404794886

About Azores and Madeira I don't think they have autonomy to do that. The State of Emergency is the highest level of danger and only the President of the Republic can call it, although it always needs the approval of Parliament. Because it's call by the President, I believe Azores and Madeira are bound to follow it.

[Mike88]

Azores regional government formation: Rio didn't budge to Ventura so he will not support a PSD minority, it seems.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1324072275717640195

Azores. Rio doesn't give in and Ventura orders to struck down the right-wing 'contraption'

The negotiations between PSD-Azores and CHEGA continue, but they could have a fatal blow was Ventura is fed up with the no responses from Rio and has decided, it seems, to order CHEGA-Azores to reject a PSD-CDS-PPM minority coalition. Expresso newspaper reports that Rio's silence is seen, by Ventura, as a "no". Ventura had set a series of conditions to reach an agreement and it seems that Rio didn't bother to respond and swipe it left.

Now, the situation is now back to square one. The representative of the Republic in the Azores will start to hear parties, starting tomorrow, and they ask either Vasco Cordeiro and José Manuel Bolieiro to form a government. Early elections are also possible, but only next year, maybe in late April/early May.