🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[crals]

CDS are way too happy about their result for a party that lost a quarter of their seats

[Mike88]

The CDS-Azores leader said the party will decide their role with calm and serenity, adding the party is a responsible one.

[Mike88]

CDS are way too happy about their result for a party that lost a quarter of their seats

Well, they survived. They're happy for just being alive.

[crals]

CDS are way too happy about their result for a party that lost a quarter of their seats

Well, they survived. They're happy for just being alive.

Yeah, and 3rd place with 3 seats was realistically the best they could hope for. But still.

[DavidB.]

RTP pundits say the election results are an "earthquake".

Also, Rui Rio is speaking. Let's see what he says.

Rio is being very, very vague on a possible "rightwing" agreement. He said the left doesn't have a majority and the right yes, however the differences between the right parties are considerable and it's "complicated" and added that the decision is up to the PSD-Azores, even pressured by reporters to give a clear answer.

Why is this so complicated? Haven't been following Portuguese politics for way too long, but why can't PSD simply form a coalition with CDS and CHEGA (okay, don't know anything about the other two)?

[Mike88]

RTP pundits say the election results are an "earthquake".

Also, Rui Rio is speaking. Let's see what he says.

Rio is being very, very vague on a possible "rightwing" agreement. He said the left doesn't have a majority and the right yes, however the differences between the right parties are considerable and it's "complicated" and added that the decision is up to the PSD-Azores, even pressured by reporters to give a clear answer.

Why is this so complicated? Haven't been following Portuguese politics for way too long, but why can't PSD simply form a coalition with CDS and CHEGA (okay, don't know anything about the other two)?

Because, like he said, it's complicated. The PSD knows that on his right everything is changing and is seeing how CHEGA is performing and they feel uncomfortable with their policies and manners. Rio himself said that he would only talk to CHEGA if they moderate their tone, if not, no talk. CDS is in danger because of CHEGA as it's stealing a lot of votes on the rightwing and making them weaker. So, they don't like CHEGA and see them as the "opponent". IL is a social liberal party that shocks with CHEGA on almost everything. So, the panorama is complicated.

[MaxQue]

RTP pundits say the election results are an "earthquake".

Also, Rui Rio is speaking. Let's see what he says.

Rio is being very, very vague on a possible "rightwing" agreement. He said the left doesn't have a majority and the right yes, however the differences between the right parties are considerable and it's "complicated" and added that the decision is up to the PSD-Azores, even pressured by reporters to give a clear answer.

Why is this so complicated? Haven't been following Portuguese politics for way too long, but why can't PSD simply form a coalition with CDS and CHEGA (okay, don't know anything about the other two)?

CHEGA is PVV-like.

[Mike88]

The PSD-Azores leader says he's open to talks with all parties and that everything is on the table.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Very interesting (and messy) result. The obvious PS+CDS majority isn't there either. Surprised both PAN and IL managed to get a seat.

How is PS + CDS obvious lmao that sounds like a strange coupling?

[Mike88]

Very interesting (and messy) result. The obvious PS+CDS majority isn't there either. Surprised both PAN and IL managed to get a seat.

How is PS + CDS obvious lmao that sounds like a strange coupling?

Because in the 70's and 80's, the PSD was the dominant party in the regions of Madeira and Azores, the PS and CDS forged occasional agreements to confront the PSD in elections, especially in local elections. And in the Azores, after the 1996 elections, the PSD+CDS had a majority but that idea was rejected, so the PS forged deals with CDS in order to govern.

[Mike88]

Ventura is rejecting deals with PSD-Azores:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1320513083354292225

Ventura rejects agreements with the PSD in the Azores: "CHEGA doesn't govern with parties of the system"

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

"Não governamos com partidos do sistema" - especially coming from the right - sounds like politics 101 for signs that a party is pure trash.

Anyway interesting stuff with the PS/CDS coalitions in the Atlantic back in the day... I guess ideology matters less at a more local level.

[crals]

Ventura is rejecting deals with PSD-Azores:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1320513083354292225

Ventura rejects agreements with the PSD in the Azores: "CHEGA doesn't govern with parties of the system"

Such a hypocrite, he was a proud member of PSD only a few years ago.

So a PS minority government it is. Will be interesting to see.

[Mike88]

"Não governamos com partidos do sistema" - especially coming from the right - sounds like politics 101 for signs that a party is pure trash.

Anyway interesting stuff with the PS/CDS coalitions in the Atlantic back in the day... I guess ideology matters less at a more local level.

No doubt about it. On the local level, it more about winning. About CHEGA, well, he has the presidential elections next January, making a deal with the PSD and accepting some PSD terms would make him lose much of his "platforms", if you want to call it like that, for the presidential campaign.

But, nothing is certain about Ventura.

Also a funny moment in Vasco Cordeiro speech: he said that he always believed that who wins an election, should govern. Then a reporter asked: So you don't agree with Costa? An uncomfortable pause occurred.

[crals]

The 2 indie MPs won't vote the budget down, which means it will pass the first reading.

[Mike88]

The 2 indie MPs won't vote the budget down, which means it will pass the first reading.

Yep, Joacine Katar Moreira and PAN dissident, Cristina Rodrigues will abstain and the budget will pass:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1320659663994707969

OE 2021: Budget for 2021 saved by non-inscrict MPs

Nonetheless, the budget will pass by the slimest margin since the infamous "limiano budgets" during Guterres 2nd term and that were the first sign of Guterres downfall. Is the same happening to Costa? One thing is certain, after 5 years as PM, yesterday was the first big defeat of Costa and the first "victory" of Rio.

[Mike88]

Azores elections: Observador newspaper says the PS is already thinking of snap elections.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1320754692142604293

Taken by surprise with results in the Azores, PS already thinks about early elections

A report from Observador newspaper says the PS is stunned by the election results, as their own polling was giving 48-52% to the PS. To the online newspaper, many PS members say the situation is "impossible" and that new elections may be the only way out.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I don't know why but my gut feeling is telling me that immediate snap elections would be a disaster for PS.
Also, damn it, they should really change their pollster. 48-52%? Lmao

[Mike88]

I don't know why but my gut feeling is telling me that immediate snap elections would be a disaster for PS.
Also, damn it, they should really change their pollster. 48-52%? Lmao

I don't even know if that's even possible because of the 6 month wainting period until dissolving assemblies. That's the rule for the national parliament, and I believe it's also the same for regional elections. If that's the case, there can only be a new election in May 2021. Until then, a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

And yeah, their pollster, whoever it is, has lost a client for sure.

[Mike88]

Azores regional election. Results by parish:



BE won the smallest parish in Portugal and in the Azores: Mosteiro, Flores island, 28 registered votes. Overall, the PS won 101 parishes, PSD 47, CDS 5, PPM 2 and BE 1.

[Mike88]

It seems that CHEGA has retracted their initial position: (not surprising at all)

Rightwing parties willing to forge an agreement. All in the hands of the PSD.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1320855981773983745

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It seems that CHEGA has retracted their initial position: (not surprising at all)

Rightwing parties willing to forge an agreement. All in the hands of the PSD.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1320855981773983745

LMAO

I mean we already knew that Ventura and co. are full of sh**t but this is beyond hilarious... so much for rejeitamos acordos com o "sistema"

By the way I notice PPM won another parish outside of Corvo, is that normal?

[Velasco]

I missed completely the Azores election with the Chilean referendum and other affairs. My bad

What a strange result, let alone the PS underwhelming performance

I see that the PPM won a plurality in Corvo (in coalition with the CDS) and an additional seat in Flores. What's the reason for that upsurge?

[Mike88]

It seems that CHEGA has retracted their initial position: (not surprising at all)

Rightwing parties willing to forge an agreement. All in the hands of the PSD.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1320855981773983745

LMAO

I mean we already knew that Ventura and co. are full of sh**t but this is beyond hilarious... so much for rejeitamos acordos com o "sistema"

By the way I notice PPM won another parish outside of Corvo, is that normal?

It seems that PSD wants CDS and PPM in the government, while CHEGA and IL don't want to go to government, but support a PSD minority only. But, their "retraction" is anything but surprising. The PS is also hoping if it can make a coalition with CDS and maybe PAN.

Flores island had the most insane swings in these elections. In 2016, CDU won the island and this time they only got 3.2% of the votes. The CDU MP didn't run for reelection and instead his sister ran. It didn't work out. That parish was won by PPM perhaps, IMO, of it's proximity to Corvo but PPM scored big numbers across the islands, mainly in Santa Maria.

I missed completely the Azores election with the Chilean referendum and other affairs. My bad

What a strange result, let alone the PS underwhelming performance

I see that the PPM won a plurality in Corvo (in coalition with the CDS) and an additional seat in Flores. What's the reason for that upsurge?

The PS result was feared by many as the long tenure of the PS became an issue. But, yes, the result was far worse than expected.

The PPM-Azores leader is from Corvo and since he ran for the regional parliament, he has been reelected ever since. The surge of PPM is mainly due to its campaign, I assume.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It seems that CHEGA has retracted their initial position: (not surprising at all)

Rightwing parties willing to forge an agreement. All in the hands of the PSD.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1320855981773983745

LMAO

I mean we already knew that Ventura and co. are full of sh**t but this is beyond hilarious... so much for rejeitamos acordos com o "sistema"

By the way I notice PPM won another parish outside of Corvo, is that normal?

It seems that PSD wants CDS and PPM in the government, while CHEGA and IL don't want to go to government, but support a PSD minority only. But, their "retraction" is anything but surprising. The PS is also hoping if it can make a coalition with CDS and maybe PAN.

Flores island had the most insane swings in these elections. In 2016, CDU won the island and this time they only got 3.2% of the votes. The CDU MP didn't run for reelection and instead his sister ran. It didn't work out. That parish was won by PPM perhaps, IMO, of it's proximity to Corvo but PPM scored big numbers across the islands, mainly in Santa Maria.

Lol this is another thing beyond hilarious. The magic of local politics. Also inb4 Flores is sexist.

Do you think that PS + CDS + PAN is the most likely government at the moment?