🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Do you have opinion polling for the Azorean election?

For the moment there's no polling from Azores and we'll see if any poll is released. Polling Azores is a nightmare for pollsters as almost 80% of the Azores population live in the two main islands, São Miguel and Terceira, and the rest in the smaller remaining 7 islands. It's very difficult to gather reliable voting samples from these small islands, so pollsters avoid doing polls in the Azores. In 2016, the only poll failed miserably in predicting the result as it predicted a 61% to 20% victory for the PS, when the actual result was 46% to 31% in favour of the PS. In 2012, the only poll also failed to predict the comfortable victory of the PS.

However, it's basically a forgone conclusion that the PS will win and probably with a bigger majority as the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is widely approved by the electorate.

Very interesting.

Are Azores traditionally socialist leaning?

Azores is one the poorest regions of Portugal and is very dependent on regional state support, the poverty rate is above 30% in the region. It has a somewhat conservative population but that votes, currently, in the PS because the PSD doesn't offer anything different. But it wasn't always like this. Azores was actually a PSD bastion until 1996, when the region was led by Mota Amaral. In 1996, he left the region to become an MP in Lisbon and the PS narrowly won the 1996 elections and since then have hold on to power. Since 1996, the PSD has only won 3 elections in the islands, 2 General elections and 1 European election.

Wow, very interesting political history.

Thank you!

And about that 1996 election, which changed the political landscape of the Azores, all could had been different. In that election, the PS won more votes but tied with the PSD in terms of seats, 24 each. The PSD started negotiations with the CDS to form a coalition, together PSD+CDS had 27 seats, enough for a majority, but the then President of the Republic, Jorge Sampaio, refused to accept a PSD/CDS coalition government arguing that the party who won was the PS and should form a government, adding that he would call snap election then to accept a PSD/CDS government.

So... I would argue that Jorge Sampaio was pretty bold.
Anyway, thank you for all the information you are sharing in this thread! Very comprehensive.

[Mike88]

Do you have opinion polling for the Azorean election?

For the moment there's no polling from Azores and we'll see if any poll is released. Polling Azores is a nightmare for pollsters as almost 80% of the Azores population live in the two main islands, São Miguel and Terceira, and the rest in the smaller remaining 7 islands. It's very difficult to gather reliable voting samples from these small islands, so pollsters avoid doing polls in the Azores. In 2016, the only poll failed miserably in predicting the result as it predicted a 61% to 20% victory for the PS, when the actual result was 46% to 31% in favour of the PS. In 2012, the only poll also failed to predict the comfortable victory of the PS.

However, it's basically a forgone conclusion that the PS will win and probably with a bigger majority as the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is widely approved by the electorate.

Very interesting.

Are Azores traditionally socialist leaning?

Azores is one the poorest regions of Portugal and is very dependent on regional state support, the poverty rate is above 30% in the region. It has a somewhat conservative population but that votes, currently, in the PS because the PSD doesn't offer anything different. But it wasn't always like this. Azores was actually a PSD bastion until 1996, when the region was led by Mota Amaral. In 1996, he left the region to become an MP in Lisbon and the PS narrowly won the 1996 elections and since then have hold on to power. Since 1996, the PSD has only won 3 elections in the islands, 2 General elections and 1 European election.

Wow, very interesting political history.

Thank you!

And about that 1996 election, which changed the political landscape of the Azores, all could had been different. In that election, the PS won more votes but tied with the PSD in terms of seats, 24 each. The PSD started negotiations with the CDS to form a coalition, together PSD+CDS had 27 seats, enough for a majority, but the then President of the Republic, Jorge Sampaio, refused to accept a PSD/CDS coalition government arguing that the party who won was the PS and should form a government, adding that he would call snap election then to accept a PSD/CDS government.

So... I would argue that Jorge Sampaio was pretty bold.
Anyway, thank you for all the information you are sharing in this thread! Very comprehensive.

Yes, a President doing something like that today would be unthinkable, especially since what happened in 2015.

Thanks for the feedback

[Mike88]

Presidential vetos: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa vetoes the new nationality law and approves early voting in the Azores elections.

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1296769152284151808

President of the Republic vetoes amendments to the Nationality Law

The President has vetoed the new Nationality law. The new law was passed by all the left and rejected by the right. The President says the new law is unfair as it "disadvantages couples without children, as well as, especially couples with children, endowed with Portuguese nationality, but who haven't children in common". The new law would give Portuguese nationality for children of immigrants living in Portugal for more than a year. The President also approved the changes to the electoral law for the regional elections that expand early voting for the Azores regional elections. However, and despite the approval, the President criticized the change being really close to the elections.

[Mike88]

Azores election 2020: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa likely to call elections for 25 October.

In the next few days, the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, will call regional elections in the Azores for October 25th, Negócios newspaper is reporting. This was the most acceptable date by all parties with the expection of the PS which wanted an earlier date due to the possible second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Now it's official:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa calls regional elections in Azores for October 25, 2020.

I believe parties now have until mid September to present candidacies and the majority have already approved their lists. In 2016, 13 parties were on the ballot and this year that number could be even higher.

[Mike88]

António Costa interview: PM announces a smaller increase in the minimum wage, a new state support for people hurt by the pandemic and asks for a 3 year agreement with BE and CDU.

https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1297160549688586246

António Costa foresees lower than expected minimum wage increase in 2021

PM António Costa gave an interview to Expresso newspaper where he announced some policies. Regarding the minimum wage, a question some business leaders say there's no margins for increases, Costa said the minimum wage will increase but by a smaller amount than what was predicted for 2020, pre-Covid. He also announced a new state support for people and families affected by the pandemic, but with few details, that income taxes will not be reduced this year, but the VAT on electricity will be reduced. Costa, again, asked for a 3 year agreement with BE and CDU in order to have a strong base to make decisions. He also commented the Reguengos de Monsaraz care controversy by, once again, defending the minister of Social Security saying he himself doesn't read all the reports given to him and attacked the Medical Bar Association saying that Bar Associations do not exist to inspect the State.

Regarding the proposed agreement between PS and BE/CDU, Catarina Martins, BE leader, has already responded by rejecting a 3 year deal and defending 1 year deals. She also said that any negotiations between them and the PS has to take into account what the government implemented from the 2020 budget and added that they will only accept a deal that reforms the labour laws, increases spending in the NHS and ends the State support for the Novo Banco.

[Mike88]

Controversy as a leaked video shows PM António Costa calling "cowards" to doctors:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1297517727632982018

António Costa's 'off-the-record' video released calling doctors "cowards"

An "off the record" video of António Costa's interview tp Expresso newspaper was leaked today. The 7 second video, shows Costa talking to the 2 reporters, that conducted the interview, in a heated manner and accusing medical doctors of being "cowards", as he's referring to the ongoing controversy surrounding the Reguengos de Monsaraz nursing home report. The context of the conversation is unknown and the video seems to be taped from a screen of a computer.

Expresso newspaper has already responded to the leak saying the leak is illegal, out of context and will start an investigation to find who leaked the video. Medical unions and the Medical Bar Association have also reacted to the video saying they repudiate the words of the Prime Minister and demand an apology.

The Reguengos de Monsaraz controversy continues...

[Mike88]

The leaked video controversy continues as the Medical Bar Association demanded an emergency meeting with Costa. Costa accepted and the meeting will be held tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1297877253708185600

Doctors: Medical Bar Association asks António Costa for an urgent meeting. Prime Minister scheduled for tomorrow

The controversy surrounding the mysterious 7 second leaked video of Costa calling doctors "cowards" continues as the Medical Bar Association demanded an urgent meeting with the PM, meeting Costa accepted and will happen tomorrow. The origin of the leaked video is fault of Expresso newspaper after all. After the newspaper announced the leak was illegal and started an investigation, they found that the video was sent by mistake to all news outlets and are now acknowledging their mistake. Expresso also asked for the video to be deleted from social media.

PSD leader, Rui Rio, commented the controversy by saying that we should be grateful for all the doctors who put their lives at risk during this pandemic. He added that the government should release their own report on the conditions of the nursing home to compare it with the Bar association' one. The Health secretary, António Lacerda, also reacted to the controversy and defended the PM by saying that Costa has always been alongside the health professionals.

[Mike88]

Azores 2020 regional election timetable released:

Until 31 August: Final map of distribution of seats by island;
14 September: Final day to deliver party candidacies lists;
15 October: Final day to register for early voting;
18 October: Early voting day;
Between 11 and 23 October: Official campaign period;
24 October: Reflection day (campaign events and propaganda are forbidden);
25 October: Election day, polls open from 8am to 7pm;

[Mike88]

Truce is set between Costa and the Medical Bar Association after their meeting this morning:

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1298228804557639680

Videos - António Costa underlines "consideration for doctors" at the end of the meeting with the Bar Association

The more than 2 hour long meeting between the PM and the Medical Bar Association ended in a truce between both sides. At the end of the meeting both the PM and the Medical Bar Association President said that their differences were resolved with Costa saying he has an enormous esteem and consideration for all the work doctors are doing during this pandemic. The President of Medical Bar Association, Miguel Guimarães, thanked the PM for accepting the meeting and for having a "honest and frank" conversation with them.

[Mike88]

Businessman files a court complaint to forbid PCP's Avante Festival:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1298270155055669249

Businessman delivered precautionary measure to prevent the Avante Party - RTP Notícias

A businessman has file a court complaint, a precautionary measure, in Seixal court to ban PCP' Avante Festival which is schedule to start next week. The man in question is a event businessman and the president of a local football club. The complaint doesn't talk about politics, it seems, and only talks about that this event is like many others that have been canceled during the Ovid-19 pandemic. As this is a urgent complaint, a judge will hear both sides and take a decision to either accept of deny the complaint in the next few days.

The realization of this annual festival, organized by the Communist Party, has been involved in controversy since the beginning as many event businesses criticize the different treatment this festival is having, plus parties on the right, especially the PSD, have been pounding the PCP for maintaining the festival, with PSD leader Rui Rio mocking the Communists constantly on twitter.

[Mike88]

Truce is set between Costa and the Medical Bar Association after their meeting this morning:

Well, it didn't last long it seems: Bar Association President says that Costa didn't told the press what he actually said in the meeting.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1298622109736820739

The mood between the Order of Doctors and the Prime Minister goes sour again

A truce seemed to be set, yesterday, between Costa and the Bar Association, but in an email sent to Bar Associates late yesterday evening by Miguel Guimarães, President of the Medical Bar Association, suggests that in his mind Costa was disloyal by not telling the press what he truly said in the meeting. He says the PM, during the meeting, was very sincere and supportive of medical professionals and that his words in the leaked video didn't reflect his real opinions. However, Mr Guimarães says that in front of the press, Costa wasn't that honest and frontal as he was with him. He added he could not contradict the PM as he talked before him.

Also, regarding the PCP's Avante Festival:

Businessman files a court complaint to forbid PCP's Avante Festival:

A Seixal court judge has sent the complaint to a Lisbon court as the PCP headquarters is in Lisbon. More details about the businessman in question are also being revealed as he was a PSD candidate in the 2013 local elections in Moura, Beja district. He polled just 10.6% of the votes.

[Mike88]

The end of the Alliance? Santana Lopes leaves the leadership of the party he founded 2 years ago.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1299215428632313856

Political parties: Santana Lopes will leave the presidency of the Alliance.

Santana Lopes has floated with idea for some time now after the party's disastrous result in 2019, but now it seems that he made a decision. Santana Lopes will not run again for the leadership of the party he created 2 years ago after his split with the PSD and will focus more on his professional life. The party will choose a new leader in a party congress in late September. The role Santana will have in the party is still unknown. The Alliance could follow the path of Marinho Pinho's PDR after he also left the leadership, as PDR drooped from 1.1% in 2015 to 0.2% in 2019.

[Mike88]

Azores regional elections: No change in seats distribution by islands.

The Electoral Commission has published the final map of seats by island/constituency for the 25 October regional elections in the Azores. There are no changes compared with 2016. The distribution is the following:

  2 Corvo
  4 Faial
  3 Flores
  3 Graciosa
  4 Pico
  3 Santa Maria
  3 São Jorge
20 São Miguel
10 Terceira
  5 Compensation

There are also 228,572 voters registered for the elections, a drop of 313 voters compared with 2016, and a drop of 382 compared with the 2019 general elections.

[Velasco]

Azores 2020 regional election timetable released:

Until 31 August: Final map of distribution of seats by island;
14 September: Final day to deliver party candidacies lists;
15 October: Final day to register for early voting;
18 October: Early voting day;
Between 11 and 23 October: Official campaign period;
24 October: Reflection day (campaign events and propaganda are forbidden);
25 October: Election day, polls open from 8am to 7pm;

I wasn't aware you have a "reflection day" too. Thought it was a Spanish anachronism, but I see we're not alone

[Mike88]

Azores 2020 regional election timetable released:

Until 31 August: Final map of distribution of seats by island;
14 September: Final day to deliver party candidacies lists;
15 October: Final day to register for early voting;
18 October: Early voting day;
Between 11 and 23 October: Official campaign period;
24 October: Reflection day (campaign events and propaganda are forbidden);
25 October: Election day, polls open from 8am to 7pm;

I wasn't aware you have a "reflection day" too. Thought it was a Spanish anachronism, but I see we're not alone

Yeah, I believe in Spain no one knows also the point of it. And here it makes even less sense since early voting was allowed to all voters, meaning you can go vote with all of the election buzz and propaganda everywhere. But, it is what it is.

I believe the only difference between Portugal and Spain, regarding election campaigns, is that Portugal allows polls to be published until the last day of campaign, while Spain forbides polling in the last week of campaign.

[Mike88]

Party meetings for the 2021 budget: PAN unhappy with the government, PCP requested a rescheduling of the meeting and BE didn't talked to the press.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1299371498206003207

State Budget: PAN leaves meeting with Government dissatisfied with environmental proposals

PM António Costa started, today, to call leftwing parties to talk to them about possible policies and support for the 2021 budget. Costa has been asking for a long term deal between the PS and leftwing parties, but, so far, it's a long shot. The first party to be received by the PM was BE, but they left the meeting without talking to the press and PAN, after the meeting, said they were disappointed with the government's environmental policies. The most tense situation seems to be with PCP, as Costa invited them but they refuse but asked for a rescheduling of the meeting after the first weekend of September.

The President has already warned that there cannot be a political crisis because, a) between September 2020 and March 2021, the President cannot call elections due to the 2021 presidential elections, and b) creating a political crisis in this period is just "fiction". PSD leader, Rui Rio, also agreed with the President saying the President's words were "common sense".

As of the current standings, it's very likely that the 2021 budget will be a repeat of the 2020 budget vote, with the PS being the only party approving it, and with the abstention of BE, CDU and PAN, and the vote against of all the right, PSD, CDS, IL and CHEGA. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Tense moment in Porto's book fair between Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and a woman criticizing the government:

https://twitter.com/arquivo_pt/status/1299426811651256321

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa: "Tell the Portuguese to vote for another government." (2020)

It was a tense and awkward moment what happened yesterday in Porto's book fair. The President was visiting books tents when a woman, visibly angry, confronted the President with criticisms towards Costa and his government. The woman criticized the bailouts for TAP, Novo Banco and said there's nothing for her and small business owners. The President, visibly upset, said that it was the Portuguese people that chose the government and that the woman should tell the people to vote for another government. The back and forward between Marcelo and this woman lasted almost 15 minutes and it was all taped by the media. Pundits say Marcelo was caught by surprise but that he slipped by answering that way to the woman. Some PS MPs aren't also very pleased with the response.

This event happens as the PM António Costa is threatening with a political crisis if there's no deal for the 2021 budget, and putting pressure on BE and CDU:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1299483420276527106

António Costa: “If there is no agreement, it is simple: there is no Budget and there is a political crisis”

Costa also added that if the government is dependent on the PSD, it will be the end of his government, at the same time PSD leader, Rui Rio, says that his party will only be a spectator during the budget negotiations and that the 2021 budget draft is the full responsibility of the PS and leftwing parties.

[Mike88]

Avante festival: Businesses in Amora, Seixal, will close during the festival.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1300000191735455744

"We don't want the Avante Party." Amora merchants close doors in protest

Until now, more than 30 businesses, restaurants, shops and others, in Amora, Seixal, where the PCP's Avante festival will happen, have decided to shut their doors during the festival next weekend. The owner of a restaurant started the movement and she says many more businesses will join in an close during the 3 days of the festival. This owner says that she will lose money but that she rather wants to close for 3 days than 3 weeks, adding that many people in the parish of Amora are fearfull and some will leave the city during the weekend. She added that others that will stay in the city will put black cloths in their windows to protest against the PCP' festival.

The controversy about this festival continues this weekend with pundits hammering the Communists for their stubbornness in holding the event, and just today Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa criticized the General Department of Health (DGS) for not publicly detailing the rules the festival has to follow. The DGS has already said they will not release the rules but said that they have already sent the rules to the PCP and they can publicate them if they want.

And in the backdrop of all of this is the threat of a "political crisis" from the part of PM Costa after his interview to Expresso newspaper. BE and CDU have already criticized Costa for threatening them and PSD mocked the "love proposal" Costa is giving to BE and CDU. President Marcelo has, once again, said no snap elections will be called and that he "has all the aces":

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1300140105164877824

Marcelo responds to the threat of political crisis. "The knife and cheese are in the President's hands"

Pundits seem quite stunned with Costa's interview as he seemed worried and stressed, hinting that this threat to the leftwing parties will not work and possibly backfire, and that he knows that no elections can be called so, all of this seems to be "political theater". However, they point the optics of all of this are very bad.

[Mike88]

Avante festival: DGS is forced to release their report after pressures from the President, media and opposition.

https://twitter.com/Visao_pt/status/1300446302216617984

Festa do Avante!: Maximum capacity of 16,500 people and alcohol forbidden after 8 pm

The General Department of Health (DGS) was forced to make a U-turn and publish their report on the condition to hold the PCP's Avante festival. During yesterday, the President, media and the opposition hammered the DGS for not wanting to publish the report and demanded the government to take action. During the morning, Costa announced that the report would become public by lunch time. The report allows 16,500 per day in the festival, everyone above 10 years old has to wear a mask, sell of alcohol is forbidden after 8pm, and in the main stage and other gathering only 2,000-2,500 will be allowed at the same time. The PCP has already criticized the report saying it's to harsh compared to other events and that they will present their own plan later today. The party added that there's an ongoing "reactionary campaign" against them.

At the same time, PM Costa was in Coimbra city in a PS forum to debate answers for the future of Portugal post-Covid 19:

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1300424024485507075

PS: Consensus will be needed to restore the country, appeals António Costa

In his speech the PM didn't talked about the leftwing parties nor did he dramatized "a political crisis", rather he asked for a broad economic, social and political consensus to overtake the current crisis. His deputy, Ana Catarina Mendes, talked about the leftwing party, unlike Costa, and asked for their sense of responsibility and to put Portugal's interest above party interests.

[Mike88]

Azores regional elections: PS campaign asks voters, on social media, to vote on the best election poster.

https://twitter.com/Jornalacores9/status/1300791476650225677

Azoreans called to choose new PS Açores campaign billboards

The PS campaign for the Azores regional elections is asking voters, on social media, to vote on the best election poster for the October elections. The party is proposing 4 choices, all with the photo of the PS candidate, Vasco Cordeiro, but with backgrounds and different slogans. The vote is by likes and emojis. The winner will be announced on September 8th and by the next day, the chosen poster will be placed across the 9 islands of the Azores.

In my opinion, all 4 are quite average, nothing different or new compared with other election posters.

[Mike88]

Azores regional elections: BE files complaint to the police after several campaign posters were vandalized with swastikas.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1301193277086064640

Regional elections: Azores: BE complains about vandalized posters with swastikas

The BE-Azores has filed a complaint after several of their campaign posters for the regional elections were vandalized and swastikas drawn on them. The posters were located in Angra do Heroísmo, Azores 2nd largest city, in 3 different parishes. The party filed a complaint to the police. The party regrets the financial loss of these acts of vandalism, and says these acts are "a sign of disrespect and contempt for the democracy".

[Mike88]

Many personalities, including former PMs Cavaco Silva and Passos Coelho, sign a petition to allow parents to object their children to attend Citizenship Education classes:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1300570432412803073

Cavaco, Passos and D. Manuel Clemente defend conscientious objection from parents who do not want children in Citizenship Education classes

The controversy started, early this summer, when 2 students from Vila Nova de Famalicão were forbidden to advance to the following school year, and forced to repeat their current one, because they didn't attend Citizenship Education classes, a class where a wide range of topics like human rights, gender equality and sexuality are discussed, by their parents order. The parents of these two students sued the school and a Braga court has suspended the students retention in the same school year. Nonetheless, several high profile personalities, mainly from the right, have signed a petition to allow parents to object their children to attend these classes. The petition has the signature of former PM and President Cavaco Silva, former PM Passos Coelho, the Cardinal of Lisbon and the current deputy of Rui Rio, David Justino.

[Mike88]

Avante festival: Lisbon court rejects complaint to block the PCP's festival:

A judge in a Lisbon court has rejected a complaint, filed by a local businessman and former PSD candidate, to forbid the realization of the PCP's Avante festival. The judge says the complaint cannot go ahead as "it is public and clear the existence of rules, by Health authorities, for the safety of the event". The businessman, who filed the complaint, accepts the courts decision but says there's "inconsistencies by the criteria given to different events". Today, there will be a slow march of cars in Seixal against the Avante festival.

[Mike88]

Avante festival starts in Seixal:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1301997739606265858

Avante starts slowly: the images of the first day

The PCP's Avante festival started this afternoon in Seixal. The festival started with many PCP supporters and members angry at the PS, the right and the media for the way the festival and the PCP was treated in the last few weeks. Many say that it isn't the festival that is being attack but it's the party and that this will unite even more the party. The festival will last until Sunday and will have concerts and will end with the speech of PCP leader, Jerónimo de Sousa, on Sunday.

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has said, once again, he's worried about the festival and he's not very optimist. He's also worried about the festival damaging Portugal's image in the international stage. The PSD youth wing, JSD, has also filed a complaint to the police after a billboard of the PSD criticizing the Avante festival was removed 5 hours after it was presented. It was located near one of the festival's entrances.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Marisa Matias (BE) will run again:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1302021915419308033

Presidential elections: BE enters the race for the presidential elections with Marisa Matias.

Marisa Matias, current BE MEP, will run for the 2021 Presidential elections. The official announcement will occur next Wednesday, but the BE campaign has already confirmed to the media that she's in the race. Marisa Matias ran in 2016 and achieved 10.1% of the votes, the highest share for a female candidate in a presidential election till date. She's also the 4th candidate to announce a candidacy for the 2021 January presidential elections.