🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Rui Rio RTP interview: PSD leader open to talks with CHEGA if the party moderates its tone and said that he would consider let TAP airlines close.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1288572505679106054

Great RTP Interview. Rui Rio admitted the closure of TAP

In an interview on RTP, yesterday, PSD leader Rui Rio said he would consider talking with CHEGA if the party moderates its tone, but added that if the party continues its current strategy, talks between PSD and CHEGA are almost impossible. Rio also criticized the government's handling of the TAP airline crisis and the hydrogen controversy, saying, regarding TAP, that the government gave money to the company with no plan and that more money will likely be asked again. He added that if he was PM he would consider closing TAP airlines if the plan presented by the company wasn't feasible. Regarding the hydrogen controversy, Rio accused, once again, the government of creating a special scheme to invest in hydrogen that will hurt taxpayers. Rio also talked about the ongoing scandal of the Novo Banco real estate sales, in which the bank sold real estates below the price of the market via the Cayman Islands and lost money forcing them to ask for more money from the government. Rio accused the Novo Banco board of criminal actions. He also tried to explain the controversy of the end of biweekly debates with the PM saying that these kind of the debates were unhelpful.

CHEGA has already responded to Rio's statement saying that they will only consider talking with the PSD when the Social Democrats end being "the maid of honor" of the PS. They also refuse to be a CDS 2.0 for the PSD.

[VPH]

I don't see CHEGA moderating. What incentive do they have? As an outsider party, it's often easier to sit around and attack others rather than actually govern.

[Mike88]

I don't see CHEGA moderating. What incentive do they have? As an outsider party, it's often easier to sit around and attack others rather than actually govern.

In the near future, 1/2 years, of course not. But, who knows in 3/4 years. CHEGA is still mainly a "single person" party but many of the people close to Ventura, and people who would likely be elected if polling is correct, are former PSD members. In a future PSD victory, like I believe I said in posts a few weeks/months ago, many CHEGA members, former PSD members, could be tempted to talk with the PSD, while the hard line of the party, which never had anything to do with the PSD in the past, could refuse. Power or the prospects of power could change everything.

But, to that to even be considered the PSD needs to break away from the average 26-27% they are stuck in for months now. A stronger PSD in the polls would also change the dynamics of possible talks on the right, as CHEGA, currently, is growing very fast and has the upper hand, while the same cannot be said for the PSD.

[Mike88]

Political update:

Health authorities admit changes to the PCP's organization of the Avante Festival, in early September:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1291034430581112832

DGS admits adjustments to the recommendations for the “Avante!” Party

The PCP annual festival, in early September, is back in the news. With just weeks before the festival, the party says it can receive the 100,000 people that annually go to the festival safely and with social distance. The festival's grounds have been expanded more than 10,000 square meters. However, the General Health Department has said that adjustments to the festival organization will probably be made but they say that meetings with the party will be be held and final decisions will be made in the next few days.

The Constitutional Court has said that Azores violated the Constitution by forcing quarantines of 14 days for infected people arriving in the island. Azores, and also Madeira, want a change in the Constitution to give more powers to the regions:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1291022397781377027

In reaction to the decision of the Constitutional Court, which considered mandatory confinement unconstitutional, the President of the Regional Government of the Azores says that "the legal framework needs to be improved".

The Constitutional Court has ruled as unconstitutional the Azores regional government decision to force quarantine for people arriving in the islands. The President of the Azores government, Vasco Cordeiro, said the decision in "absurd" and a blatant example of "centralism" in Portugal, demanding, then, changes in the Constitution to give more powers to regions. Madeira regional government also supports changes.

[Mike88]

PSD-CHEGA future talks?: PSD seems split as Rui Rio considers the possibility of future talks with CHEGA if the party moderates its tone.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1291160444154118145

Will CHEGA be close to the PSD or is a "sanitary cord" needed?

Many PSD members have been criticizing and agreeing with Rio's statement, 2 weeks ago, that PSD could talk with CHEGA in the future if the party moderates its tone. PSD members, like Cascais mayor Carlos Carreiras, and others, accuse Rio of being desperate and of having no strategy. However, Rio seems to have gained an ally with Miguel Albuquerque, President of the Madeira government, as he said the PSD should talk with CHEGA and with no preconditions, while Rio defended conditions, as it is imperative to defeat the left in Portugal, adding that no moderation is needed as the PS talked with BE and CDU, with Mr. Albuquerque saying the latter even supports North Korea. Others, on the contrary, say that the issue is untimely and that the focus should be on opposing António Costa' government.

https://twitter.com/etcetaljorna/status/1291485364717342721

Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos: "Probability of understandings of CDS with Chega is null"

CDS is also in trouble surrounding possible talks with CHEGA. The party, which is polling at record levels, is also divided about CHEGA. Current leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, said, in an interview, that the possibility of CDS talking with CHEGA is "null" as he accuses André Ventura of being the candidate of "coffee house extremisms". After this interview, a CDS member, that led a conservative movement within the party, announced he was leaving CDS and going to CHEGA. Former CDS caucus leader under Assunção Cristas, Nuno Magalhães, diverged from the party leader saying the CDS should not close the door for possible agreements with CHEGA and that the leader should hear what the party bases believe.

[Mike88]

Azores elections 2020: PSD approves lists with high "consensus", but there were tensions in one party section because of the lists.

https://twitter.com/Jornalacores9/status/1292249542289653763

PSD approves lists of candidates by "huge consensus" - Jornal Açores 9

The PSD-Azores approved, last Saturday, the lists of candidates for the October regional elections. PSD leader, José Manuel Bolieiro, was nominated as candidate for President of the Government and will lead the list in São Miguel island, the biggest electoral district in Azores. According to the party, 79% of the names in the lists are new, meaning that of the names chosen in 2016 only 21% will remain, and that 44% of the candidates in the lists are women.

However, the "huge consensus" was overshadowed by tensions between the regional PSD and a local party branch in Vila Franca do Campo. The local party was quite upset the regional leadership didn't accept their chosen candidate to represent the town and decided to resign and not to campaign in the October election.

The date of the election is still to be announced. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa could announce a date as late as next week because the publication of the changes of the Azores electoral law will only be published this week. The most likely dates are 18 or 25 October.

[Mike88]

The 18 deaths in a nursing home in Reguengos de Monsaraz, Évora, are becoming a political issue as parties accuse of negligence the Health authorities and the government:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1293305052157935616

18 deaths in Reguengos' nursing home: "a humanitarian crime”, "cannot be repeated", "where is the minister?" and a fundamental interview

The report of of the Medical Bar Association on the conditions of a nursing home in Reguengos de Monsaraz, Évora district, was sent to the DA office to further investigation. The report states that the conditions in the nursing home were very bad and that the majority of deaths cannot be attributed to Covid-19 but rather dehydration and other serious illnesses. An outbreak of Covid-19 broke, here, in mid July and in the nursing home 106 people were infected, then which spread to the community with 56 others infected.

The doctor heading the report said the nursing home didn't follow any guidelines from the DGS, Health authorities, but that the DGS can be also accused as responsible as it failed to manage the situation. Political parties are already accusing the government of hidding and not giving answers. CDS says this is "a humanitarian crime" and that the State seems to be more worried with dogs than the elderly. The PSD says the government has disappeared especially the minister of Social Security and wants answers from the government. If no answers are given, the party will consider asking for an extraordinary session of Parliament, during the holidays, to force the government to give answers. PCP also is demanding answers and wants, if the accusations are proved, that the nursing home and the mayor of the city, led by the PS, be labeled as responsible for this situation.

[Mike88]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa slaps PS and PSD by vetoing several new parliamentary rules like fewer debates about Europe and the increase of signatures needed to petitions to be discussed:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1293653485091794947

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says it is negative for democracy that the minimum number of signatures necessary to bring a petition to Parliament's plenary has been increased to ten thousand.

The President of the Republic has vetoed at least two major bills, regarding new parliamentary rules, that were approved by PS and PSD. The reduction of debates, with the PM, about Europe was vetoed, as was the increase of the number of signatures needed for a petition to be discussed in Parliament, from 4,000 to 10,000. The President hammered these new rules saying they're bad for democracy and give space for populist movements. The President also hinted that he would also veto the reduction of PM Q&A, but in that matter he has no word. The new rules were sent back to Parliament for reconsideration.

Smaller parties applauded the President' decision while PS and PSD haven't made an official comment. If the main parties don't change the rules, the President can only use the power of veto 2 more times and if no changes occur, the new rules become permanent. However, it's somewhat expected that PS and PSD will make changes in the new rules.

[Mike88]

Police investigates death threats to 3 MPs and their families:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1293805081964548100

PJ investigates threats to left-wing deputies and SOS Racism - RTP Notícias

The police is investigating death threats that 3 MPs, BE MPs Mariana Mortágua and Beatriz Dias, and Ind MP Joacine Katar Moreira, received via email. In that email, also sent to SOS Racism association, a deadline of 48 hours is given to members of the association and the 3 MPs, and their families, to leave Portugal and that if they fail the deadline, other measures will be done to "ensure the security of the Portuguese people".

The Speaker of Parliament, Ferro Rodrigues, has already condemn these actions saying these threats come from a "far-right group" and that "racist, hate-promoting and attempted intimidation acts" must be condemn.

[Farmlands]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa slaps PS and PSD by vetoing several new parliamentary rules like fewer debates about Europe and the increase of signatures needed to petitions to be discussed.

Smaller parties applauded the President' decision while PS and PSD haven't made an official comment. If the main parties don't change the rules, the President can only use the power of veto 2 more times and if no changes occur, the new rules become permanent. However, it's somewhat expected that PS and PSD will make changes in the new rules.

Thank God for the President. Without his veto, I have no doubt that the big two parties would continually try to get rid of norms and procedures unfavourable to them, practically the only time they ever get together to do something now. Goes to show the importance of checks and balances in a healthy, functioning democracy.

[Mike88]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa slaps PS and PSD by vetoing several new parliamentary rules like fewer debates about Europe and the increase of signatures needed to petitions to be discussed.

Smaller parties applauded the President' decision while PS and PSD haven't made an official comment. If the main parties don't change the rules, the President can only use the power of veto 2 more times and if no changes occur, the new rules become permanent. However, it's somewhat expected that PS and PSD will make changes in the new rules.

Thank God for the President. Without his veto, I have no doubt that the big two parties would continually try to get rid of norms and procedures unfavourable to them, practically the only time they ever get together to do something now. Goes to show the importance of checks and balances in a healthy, functioning democracy.

The reduction of PM Q&A debates and other rule changes fit perfectly with Rio' and Costa's political personalities. Both aren't good orators, are very controlling and both don't like parliamentary routine. Both, in the past, criticized the weekly PM Q&A debates and proposed changes to it. And in their minds, these changes are good for both: Costa, who isn't very impressive in debating, wouldn't have to go to Parliament and would do what he does best, controlling the political situation by decisions not subject by Parliament; and Rio the same, adding that he's even more controlling than Costa, plus he would remove air time for parties like IL and CDS, especially IL, who constantly says Rio is, more often than not, a puppet of the PS. Now, the problem of all of this is the image it gives, which is not very good, though I doubt the majority of the electorate gives the importance the media gives it.

According to the media, PS and PSD don't know what to do with the vetoes, if they change the rules or sent it back with no changes:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1294140741057273856

Parliament: PSD and PS still do not know if they insist on changing the petitions law

If they don't change a thing, Marcelo's hands are tied and he has to pass the rules as presidential vetoes have a limit.

[Mike88]

Reguengos de Monsaraz nursing controversy: Social Security minister says she hasn't read the report yet, drawing criticisms from the opposition and a "jibe" by Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1294563490238066688

Outbreak size in nursing homes "is not too big", says Minister of Social Security

The Social Security minister, Ana Mendes Godinho, is in a middle of a controversy about the Reguengos de Monsaraz nursing home report. In a trainwreck interview to Expresso newspaper, the minister said she didn't read the report yet but had asked her team to analyze it and give a feedback. She added that outbreaks in nursing homes aren't that serious and that her job doesn't require to ascertain responsibilities for outbreaks in nursing homes. The interview is creating controversy with PSD, CDS and CHEGA accusing the minister of incompetence and no sense of humanity. PSD has already asked the minister to go to an emergency hearing in Parliament, while CDS and CHEGA are asking for her resignation.

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa also commented, saying he has read all of the reports about the nursing home in Monsaraz, in what seemed to be a jibe to the minister. He further added that authorities have a lot of material to investigate and demand responsibilities.

The ministry of Social Security has already accused Expresso newspaper of "decontextualizing in a serious way" the minister's words and that she didn't downplayed the outbreaks. Expresso newspaper immediately sent a memo saying the minister is lying and published the full audio of the interview.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %:

39.6% PS (+0.6)
24.8% PSD (+0.9)
  8.5% BE (-1.9)
  7.9% CHEGA (+1.7)
  6.1% CDU (-0.1)
  4.4% CDS (-0.4)  
  3.2% PAN (+0.2)
  2.8% IL (nc)
  0.0% Livre (-0.4)
  0.4% Others (+0.2)
  2.2% Invalid/Blank (-0.7)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.4 António Costa (nc)
3.1 Rui Rio (-0.1)
2.8 Catarina Martins (-0.2)
2.6 André Silva (nc)
2.6 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.1)
2.5 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.1)
2.5 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.1)
2.2 André Ventura (nc)
1.8 Joacine Katar Moreira (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 August 2020. Polled 601 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Azores regional elections: Electoral commission says voting will be safe in Azores.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1295372439715753985

Elections in the Azores: CNE says that voting will be safe and that the pandemic cannot justify abstention

The Electoral Commission met today with the government of Azores to ensure that the voting process will be safe during the October elections. The Commission says that people should bring their own pens in order to vote, use masks, election workers will be wearing masks and visors and that IDs will be disinfected as well disinfectant alcohol will be provided to voters. The Commission also adds that the pandemic cannot be a reason to abstain in the elections, as all security measures will be in place. Azores has had 194 confirmed cases since March, with 23 currently active, and 16 deaths.

Abstention in Azores is always very big. In the 2016 elections, just 41% cast a ballot, and in the 2019 general election just 36.5% went to the polls. Plus, the election outcome is basically a forgone conclusion, so turnout will most likely be one of the lowest ever.

[Velasco]

Is the PPM running to retain the seat for Corvo?

[Mike88]

Is the PPM running to retain the seat for Corvo?

I assume that yes. The PPM MP suffered an accident in late July and was rushed to Hospital in São Miguel island, but he seems to be recovering and will most likely run for reelection.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper on the 2021 Presidential election:

Vote share %: (compared with the last poll)

67.7% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-3.1)
10.1% André Ventura (+5.1)
  8.7% Ana Gomes (-1.0)
  4.2% Marisa Matias (+0.2)
  2.5% Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.1)
  6.8% Others/Undecided (-1.1)

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 August 2020. Polled 601 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Azores election 2020: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa likely to call elections for 25 October.

In the next few days, the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, will call regional elections in the Azores for October 25th, Negócios newspaper is reporting. This was the most acceptable date by all parties with the expection of the PS which wanted an earlier date due to the possible second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Do you have opinion polling for the Azorean election?

[Velasco]

Azores election 2020: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa likely to call elections for 25 October.

In the next few days, the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, will call regional elections in the Azores for October 25th, Negócios newspaper is reporting. This was the most acceptable date by all parties with the expection of the PS which wanted an earlier date due to the possible second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.

I infer the president of the Republic has the attributions to call regional elections in Portugal, not the head of the regional governments (I guess the same rules for Madeira, right?). It's renarkable

[Mike88]

Azores election 2020: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa likely to call elections for 25 October.

In the next few days, the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, will call regional elections in the Azores for October 25th, Negócios newspaper is reporting. This was the most acceptable date by all parties with the expection of the PS which wanted an earlier date due to the possible second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.

I infer the president of the Republic has the attributions to call regional elections in Portugal, not the head of the regional governments (I guess the same rules for Madeira, right?). It's renarkable

Yes, the President calls Presidential, General, Regional and European elections. Only the local elections are called by the Prime minister. The rules are also the same for Madeira, of course, but the date has to be somewhat consensual and if snap regional elections are held, like what happened in Madeira in 2007, it's always by the request of the head of the regional governments, which can advise a date but only the President can call it. The same applies to general elections.

Do you have opinion polling for the Azorean election?

For the moment there's no polling from Azores and we'll see if any poll is released. Polling Azores is a nightmare for pollsters as almost 80% of the Azores population live in the two main islands, São Miguel and Terceira, and the rest in the smaller remaining 7 islands. It's very difficult to gather reliable voting samples from these small islands, so pollsters avoid doing polls in the Azores. In 2016, the only poll failed miserably in predicting the result as it predicted a 61% to 20% victory for the PS, when the actual result was 46% to 31% in favour of the PS. In 2012, the only poll also failed to predict the comfortable victory of the PS.

However, it's basically a forgone conclusion that the PS will win and probably with a bigger majority as the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is widely approved by the electorate. Turnout, on the other hand, could also reach historic lows, which is already a tradition in Azorean elections.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Do you have opinion polling for the Azorean election?

For the moment there's no polling from Azores and we'll see if any poll is released. Polling Azores is a nightmare for pollsters as almost 80% of the Azores population live in the two main islands, São Miguel and Terceira, and the rest in the smaller remaining 7 islands. It's very difficult to gather reliable voting samples from these small islands, so pollsters avoid doing polls in the Azores. In 2016, the only poll failed miserably in predicting the result as it predicted a 61% to 20% victory for the PS, when the actual result was 46% to 31% in favour of the PS. In 2012, the only poll also failed to predict the comfortable victory of the PS.

However, it's basically a forgone conclusion that the PS will win and probably with a bigger majority as the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is widely approved by the electorate.

Very interesting.

Are Azores traditionally socialist leaning?

[Mike88]

Do you have opinion polling for the Azorean election?

For the moment there's no polling from Azores and we'll see if any poll is released. Polling Azores is a nightmare for pollsters as almost 80% of the Azores population live in the two main islands, São Miguel and Terceira, and the rest in the smaller remaining 7 islands. It's very difficult to gather reliable voting samples from these small islands, so pollsters avoid doing polls in the Azores. In 2016, the only poll failed miserably in predicting the result as it predicted a 61% to 20% victory for the PS, when the actual result was 46% to 31% in favour of the PS. In 2012, the only poll also failed to predict the comfortable victory of the PS.

However, it's basically a forgone conclusion that the PS will win and probably with a bigger majority as the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is widely approved by the electorate.

Very interesting.

Are Azores traditionally socialist leaning?

Azores is one the poorest regions of Portugal and a large portion of the population is very dependent on regional state support, the poverty rate is above 30% in the region. It has a somewhat conservative population but that votes, currently, in the PS because the PSD doesn't offer anything different. But it wasn't always like this. Azores was actually a PSD bastion until 1996, when the region was led by Mota Amaral. In 1996, he left the region to become an MP in Lisbon and the PS narrowly won the 1996 elections and since then have hold on to power. Since 1996, the PSD has only won 3 elections in the islands, 2 General elections and 1 European election.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Do you have opinion polling for the Azorean election?

For the moment there's no polling from Azores and we'll see if any poll is released. Polling Azores is a nightmare for pollsters as almost 80% of the Azores population live in the two main islands, São Miguel and Terceira, and the rest in the smaller remaining 7 islands. It's very difficult to gather reliable voting samples from these small islands, so pollsters avoid doing polls in the Azores. In 2016, the only poll failed miserably in predicting the result as it predicted a 61% to 20% victory for the PS, when the actual result was 46% to 31% in favour of the PS. In 2012, the only poll also failed to predict the comfortable victory of the PS.

However, it's basically a forgone conclusion that the PS will win and probably with a bigger majority as the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is widely approved by the electorate.

Very interesting.

Are Azores traditionally socialist leaning?

Azores is one the poorest regions of Portugal and is very dependent on regional state support, the poverty rate is above 30% in the region. It has a somewhat conservative population but that votes, currently, in the PS because the PSD doesn't offer anything different. But it wasn't always like this. Azores was actually a PSD bastion until 1996, when the region was led by Mota Amaral. In 1996, he left the region to become an MP in Lisbon and the PS narrowly won the 1996 elections and since then have hold on to power. Since 1996, the PSD has only won 3 elections in the islands, 2 General elections and 1 European election.

Wow, very interesting political history.

Thank you!

[Mike88]

Do you have opinion polling for the Azorean election?

For the moment there's no polling from Azores and we'll see if any poll is released. Polling Azores is a nightmare for pollsters as almost 80% of the Azores population live in the two main islands, São Miguel and Terceira, and the rest in the smaller remaining 7 islands. It's very difficult to gather reliable voting samples from these small islands, so pollsters avoid doing polls in the Azores. In 2016, the only poll failed miserably in predicting the result as it predicted a 61% to 20% victory for the PS, when the actual result was 46% to 31% in favour of the PS. In 2012, the only poll also failed to predict the comfortable victory of the PS.

However, it's basically a forgone conclusion that the PS will win and probably with a bigger majority as the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is widely approved by the electorate.

Very interesting.

Are Azores traditionally socialist leaning?

Azores is one the poorest regions of Portugal and is very dependent on regional state support, the poverty rate is above 30% in the region. It has a somewhat conservative population but that votes, currently, in the PS because the PSD doesn't offer anything different. But it wasn't always like this. Azores was actually a PSD bastion until 1996, when the region was led by Mota Amaral. In 1996, he left the region to become an MP in Lisbon and the PS narrowly won the 1996 elections and since then have hold on to power. Since 1996, the PSD has only won 3 elections in the islands, 2 General elections and 1 European election.

Wow, very interesting political history.

Thank you!

And about that 1996 election, which changed the political landscape of the Azores, all could had been different. In that election, the PS won more votes but tied with the PSD in terms of seats, 24 each. The PSD started negotiations with the CDS to form a coalition, together PSD+CDS had 27 seats, enough for a majority, but the then President of the Republic, Jorge Sampaio, refused to accept a PSD/CDS coalition government arguing that the party who won was the PS and should form a government, adding that he would a call snap election than to accept a PSD/CDS government.