Ohio redistricting thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Better look:

Numbers on that 3rd?

The way the city of Columbus is chopped can't possibly comply with the requirement that you make an effort to put as much of that city in one CD as reasonably practicable counting surrounded cities as part of the city.

What is the 4th's numbers in 2020?

I tried recreating it on DRA. I think it's about Trump+6 (52-46). Which doesn't feel very reassuring for the Republicans given that it includes the fastest D-trending part of the state in southern Delaware County. OH-15 is also only around the same partisanship, too, though with an area that is less D-trending so maybe less risky.

Really don't understand what they intend in Franklin County. They clearly carved out the very most Democratic parts of Franklin County into other districts, but OH-03 is still Biden+20 so still unwinnable for the Republicans, and it puts both OH-04 and OH-15 at risk.

I imported the map, so below is a link to it. I checked the allow editing button. Enjoy.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a7766acd-5fba-47d4-9c95-3d81b100565f

Ngl that monstrosity looks like a potential dummymander in a blue wave year. 6-7 of those districts could easily go Dem in the right environment.

Brown 2018 numbers

[David Hume]

What’s the purpose of the new Jim Jordan district? Either it’s to bait Democratic into pouring money into the seat or to push Jordan towards a Senate run.

I find the senate map ridiculus. Why not just draw a clean and safe 13-2 map?

They think that 2022 midterms and 2024 general will favor the GOP because of Biden's unpopularity so they decide nows the time to go all out. There's an outside chance for 14-1 with the state senate map and not likely Dems win more than 2. In 2025 they redraw for a safer gerrymander depending on what happens, if they need to go on the defensive for 2026.

You really think they are fighting for the 3rd? If they win that, the house is already R+60. Besides, this map seems really too bad that the Roberts in OHSC may strike it down.

[bagelman]

What’s the purpose of the new Jim Jordan district? Either it’s to bait Democratic into pouring money into the seat or to push Jordan towards a Senate run.

I find the senate map ridiculus. Why not just draw a clean and safe 13-2 map?

They think that 2022 midterms and 2024 general will favor the GOP because of Biden's unpopularity so they decide nows the time to go all out. There's an outside chance for 14-1 with the state senate map and not likely Dems win more than 2. In 2025 they redraw for a safer gerrymander depending on what happens, if they need to go on the defensive for 2026.

You really think they are fighting for the 3rd? If they win that, the house is already R+60. Besides, this map seems really too bad that the Roberts in OHSC may strike it down.

538's PVI for the district is only D+12, which isn't a far cry from VA or NJ. It's not particularly likely but they may have delusions. Why else would the black parts of Columbus be in 4 or 15?

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[snip]

Ngl that monstrosity looks like a potential dummymander in a blue wave year. 6-7 of those districts could easily go Dem in the right environment.

Brown 2018 numbers

If they passed a map like this after a Trump reelection I would be laughing my butt off. Even the 1st would be within the realm of possibility and the 10th winnable.

[Stuart98]

lolhttps://twitter.com/dskolnick/status/1456331028373643273?t=NVn2ahjdhyobx-i3JmYRw...

[lfromnj]

lolhttps://twitter.com/dskolnick/status/1456331028373643273?t=NVn2ahjdhyobx-i3JmYRw...

Yeah its amazing how they couldn't even follow simple rules that still made it very easy to draw a 13-2.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If they passed a map like this after a Trump reelection I would be laughing my butt off. Even the 1st would be within the realm of possibility and the 10th winnable.

I know this is from another time and this may be lowkey wishcasting, but a Republican trifecta in Indiana drew the lines in the state post-1980 and drew a zealous gerrymander. It turned into a dummymander as 1982 was a terrible cycle for Rs and they never won a majority of seats fought on its lines. They tied in 1982 and 1984 and then lost seats slowly as the decade wore on until in 1990 they won only 2 seats out of 10.
Had Trump won re-election, this map might well have backfired a somewhat similar way.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Say the legislature ultimately doesn't get a map into law and the OH SC appoints a special master to draw the lines. What would the map look like?

[Torie]

Maybe the hapless Pubs should dust off the map that I submitted to the redistricting commission back in August. It seems that the Pubs have trouble drawing something that has a reasonable chance of actually being deemed lawful  by the courts, so perhaps they should just subcontract out the job to moi. Just a thought.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/63e57fdd-ce07-41d2-a0e0-69ebd44dc42c

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I was tried to draw a R gerrymander, but when I was the northern OH seat, they turned out to be toss-up or lean R seats so I scraped that idea and made a more compact fairish map that doesn't crack Cincinnati. I hope I didn't brake any OH redistricting rule. The compactness score is a decent 63% so there's that. 

https://davesredistricting.org/join/39a97651-6a7a-494f-8a86-507e5c0a12c3

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was tried to draw a R gerrymander, but when I was the northern OH seat, they turned out to be toss-up or lean R seats so I scraped that idea and made a more compact fairish map that doesn't crack Cincinnati. I hope I didn't brake any OH redistricting rule. The compactness score is a decent 63% so there's that. 

https://davesredistricting.org/join/39a97651-6a7a-494f-8a86-507e5c0a12c3

I believe all of Lorain has to be in the 7th.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I was tried to draw a R gerrymander, but when I was the northern OH seat, they turned out to be toss-up or lean R seats so I scraped that idea and made a more compact fairish map that doesn't crack Cincinnati. I hope I didn't brake any OH redistricting rule. The compactness score is a decent 63% so there's that.  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/39a97651-6a7a-494f-8a86-507e5c0a12c3

I believe all of Lorain has to be in the 7th.

I found this good info for OH redistricting rules. 18 Counties can be split once and 5 counties may be split twice. But if Lorain has to be splits, oh well.  

https://redistricting.lls.edu/state/ohio/?cycle=2020&level=Congress&startdate=

[Torie]

This iteration should be pretty bullet proof with the Ohio Supremes. So, other than the obvious concession of Cincinnati to the Dems, it concedes making the Akron CD a swing CD, and a couple of others within range of the Dems in a good year. I don’t think there is an unduly favoring the Pubs case to be made of much merit with this puppy, because it hews quite meticulously to neutral redistricting principles, in my opinion. So, what is legally “bankable” for the Pubs is that they lose Cincinnati, pick up Toledo, the former OH-13 Ryan Dem sink that became more Pub over time but is still lean Dem, becomes a toss-up CD, and a southern Ohio Pub CD is erased. So, the net for the Pubs is a minus 0.5 CD.  After exchanging Toledo and Cincinnati, their loss of the 16th CD is offset in part by a Dem CD becoming swing.

The lines of each and every CD having legal talking points and justifications is the idea, right down to the precinct-by-precinct level. One thing that I liked is that the chop from the south into Summit County almost perfectly nests into the suburbs south of Akron (only about 200 residents off). Ditto the way OH-12 happens to nest well in its set of counties, and its set of municipalities in Franklin County without chopping into Columbus. Clean chops generate legal talking points.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/288b20a3-ab61-4b9d-a187-a46a85c8dba0

[politicallefty]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2065965e-cbac-4a57-8957-a1611bf86084

This is the map I was thinking of before. I was going to do the North Franklin-Delware-Morrow district, but I didn't like how the other districts looked (OH-15 was looking like an arch). However, shifting some territory between 4, 12, and 15, I was able to avoid chopping another county. Overall, my goals were going for mostly compact districts and preserving COIs. This map splits 11 counties a total of 12 times, of which 3 are necessary due to being larger than a single district.

According to the analysis:

Proportionality: 89 (Partisan bias of 62/100)
Competitiveness: 37
Minority Representation: 48
Compactness: 69
Splitting: 74

PRES-2020: Trump 8-7
SEN-2018: Brown 9-6
GOV-2018: DeWine 8-7 (very nearly 8-7 Cordray, losing OH-14 by 801 votes)
AG-2018: Yost 8-7
PRES-2016: Trump 8-7
SEN-2016: Portman 13-2 (LOL)

Districts 1, 3, 11 and probably 12 are safe for Democrats. Districts 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 15, and probably 14 are all probably safe for Republicans. Districts 12 and 14 are both trending rapidly away from competitive territory. Prior to the Trump era, the 12th would've been a likely R seat and the 14th would've been safe D. That leaves four districts that should all be quite competitive. If you need to see the massive problem for Democrats in Ohio, it's that the 3 northern competitive seats would've all been safely Democratic less than a decade ago (not to mention OH-14).

OH-05: Biden+3.0, Brown+18.6, Cordray+6.8, Clinton+1.4
OH-09: Biden+0.1 (489 votes), Brown+20, Cordray+7.3, Clinton+2.2
OH-10: Trump+4.0, Brown+7.0, DeWine+6.3, Trump+6.4
OH-13: Biden+1.5, Brown+15, Cordray+6.7, Clinton+1.1

OH-12: Biden+14.4, Brown+16.6, Corday+7.3, Clinton+5.7
OH-14: Trump+11.3, Brown+11.2, DeWine+0.2 (801 votes), Trump+8.5

[Torie]

As to the above post, in what I consider a soft Dem gerrymander unless strict proportionality trumps all, is OH-14 as drawn as being the judicial Achilles Heel. A CD that takes in Youngstown and the burbs of Cleveland is ripe hanging fruit to pluck and consume in court or elsewhere. It is not obvious what the Dem gain is there, but it is there for the Asperger type obsessives, in the nature of another Dem seat. That is not going to fly with the Pub oriented Supremes. When you draw lines, think about just who the ultimate arbitrator is, almost all of which/who are partisan hacks, except for the odd court or person that is not, but even the bulk of them imo tend to be a partisan fail. But not perhaps all, cf MT. There the Dem tie breaker tossed her partisan affiliation into the dust bin. She honored her oath of office.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was tried to draw a R gerrymander, but when I was the northern OH seat, they turned out to be toss-up or lean R seats so I scraped that idea and made a more compact fairish map that doesn't crack Cincinnati. I hope I didn't brake any OH redistricting rule. The compactness score is a decent 63% so there's that.  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/39a97651-6a7a-494f-8a86-507e5c0a12c3

I believe all of Lorain has to be in the 7th.

I found this good info for OH redistricting rules. 18 Counties can be split once and 5 counties may be split twice. But if Lorain has to be splits, oh well.  

https://redistricting.lls.edu/state/ohio/?cycle=2020&level=Congress&startdate=

Isn't there a part that requires either a district wholly within every county large enough for a district, or a whole county in every district that is not the former? That's what I thought was the case anyway.
(I'm aware Hamilton is the singular exception)

[lfromnj]

I was tried to draw a R gerrymander, but when I was the northern OH seat, they turned out to be toss-up or lean R seats so I scraped that idea and made a more compact fairish map that doesn't crack Cincinnati. I hope I didn't brake any OH redistricting rule. The compactness score is a decent 63% so there's that.  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/39a97651-6a7a-494f-8a86-507e5c0a12c3

I believe all of Lorain has to be in the 7th.

I found this good info for OH redistricting rules. 18 Counties can be split once and 5 counties may be split twice. But if Lorain has to be splits, oh well.  

https://redistricting.lls.edu/state/ohio/?cycle=2020&level=Congress&startdate=

Isn't there a part that requires either a district wholly within every county large enough for a district, or a whole county in every district that is not the former? That's what I thought was the case anyway.
(I'm aware Hamilton is the singular exception)

There is no such rule.  Cincinatti just requres that it be included in a district which has a whole county which could be Clermont + Rurals(gerrymander) or could just all be inside Hamilton(fair)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was tried to draw a R gerrymander, but when I was the northern OH seat, they turned out to be toss-up or lean R seats so I scraped that idea and made a more compact fairish map that doesn't crack Cincinnati. I hope I didn't brake any OH redistricting rule. The compactness score is a decent 63% so there's that. 

https://davesredistricting.org/join/39a97651-6a7a-494f-8a86-507e5c0a12c3

I believe all of Lorain has to be in the 7th.

I found this good info for OH redistricting rules. 18 Counties can be split once and 5 counties may be split twice. But if Lorain has to be splits, oh well. 

https://redistricting.lls.edu/state/ohio/?cycle=2020&level=Congress&startdate=

Isn't there a part that requires either a district wholly within every county large enough for a district, or a whole county in every district that is not the former? That's what I thought was the case anyway.
(I'm aware Hamilton is the singular exception)

There is no such rule.  Cincinatti just requres that it be included in a district which has a whole county which could be Clermont + Rurals(gerrymander) or could just all be inside Hamilton(fair)

I stand corrected then.

[Oryxslayer]

I stand corrected then.

It's in regards to cities between 95% and 105% of a district - only matters for Cleveland and Columbus here, but mattered more on lower level maps. Frankly, the map that does weird sh**t to Columbus could be argued to break this most simple of principles - for no partisan benefit.

[Minnesota Mike]

They are also supposed to attempt to make districts compact. I don't see how a Cincinnati/rural county district is compact.

[OBD]

DRA link

I feel dirty. All R incumbents live in their districts (except for Chabot/Wenstrup, not sure about them)

OH-1 (Chabot): Trump+20.9 -> Trump+16.8
OH-2 (Wenstrup): Trump+12.7 -> Trump+12.1
OH-3 (Beatty): Clinton+43.4 -> Biden+48.4
OH-4 (Latta): Trump+15.2 -> Trump+15.8
OH-5 (Jordan/Kaptur): Trump+14.8 -> Trump+18.7
OH-6 (Johnson): Trump+14.6 -> Trump+19.1
OH-7 (Gibbs): Trump+13.8 -> Trump+14.0
OH-8 (Davidson): Trump+29.5 -> Trump+25.4
OH-9 (OPEN, Jordan could run here to avoid Kaptur): Trump+17.9 -> Trump+15.3
OH-10 (Turner): Trump+13.4 -> Trump+11.8
OH-11 (Brown): Clinton+60.7 -> Biden+58.1
OH-12 (Balderson): Trump+22.0 -> Trump+20.3
OH-13 (OPEN): Trump+11.4 -> Trump+12.9
OH-14 (Joyce): Trump+13.2 -> Trump+11.8
OH-15 (Carey): Trump+22.9 -> Trump+21.9

[ProgressiveModerate]

They are also supposed to attempt to make districts compact. I don't see how a Cincinnati/rural county district is compact.

Because "muh rural representation"

[politicallefty]

As to the above post, in what I consider a soft Dem gerrymander unless strict proportionality trumps all, is OH-14 as drawn as being the judicial Achilles Heel. A CD that takes in Youngstown and the burbs of Cleveland is ripe hanging fruit to pluck and consume in court or elsewhere. It is not obvious what the Dem gain is there, but it is there for the Asperger type obsessives, in the nature of another Dem seat. That is not going to fly with the Pub oriented Supremes. When you draw lines, think about just who the ultimate arbitrator is, almost all of which/who are partisan hacks, except for the odd court or person that is not, but even the bulk of them imo tend to be a partisan fail. But not perhaps all, cf MT. There the Dem tie breaker tossed her partisan affiliation into the dust bin. She honored her oath of office.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here, but I did not draw OH-14 to be a Dem-friendly district. A decade ago, Democrats would have loved to draw that district, but times have changed. It's trending quickly away from Democrats. (I'm still stunned that Biden lost Mahoning County. I was expecting a Lackawanna-style reversion.) As I said before, it's fairly boxed in. I also wanted to keep Trumbull and Mahoning Counties together, as they form a COI. I can provide a good reason for the way I drew the lines beyond just partisanship. I tried to adhere to the subjective criteria as well as the objective criteria.

For example, I think the way I drew the Toledo district makes far sense that combining it with a bunch of random rural counties in the NW. Orienting the district to the east as a lakeshore district respects a COI, maintains relative compactness, and doesn't unduly support one party or the other. As for why I put Dayton with Springfield, I liked that the counties that made up districts 2 and 10 fit nicely as 2 CDs with one county split. It's still a Republican-leaning district no matter how you slice it. I did also want to keep a Dayton-based district and I feel that combining it with areas to the east makes more sense than going into the Cincinnati suburbs to the south.

Would this be more to your liking for the NE?



https://davesredistricting.org/join/be1e324e-52a3-4fa0-8010-9aac2cedfce1

It maintains the same number of chops as my first map. It pulls OH-14 about a point or so the right, but more importantly, pulls OH-13 about 3-4 points to the right and turns it into a Trump district (both years). That said, I would still argue it is a fair map. I would prefer to keep Summit County whole, but this does create an Akron-Canton district, a logical and compact COI. This map was actually even better for Sherrod Brown, winning 10-5 as opposed to 9-6. While his margin in OH-14 was significantly down, he managed to win this OH-07 (despite Trump having won it by 19% in 2016 and 24% in 2020). That doesn't mean any other Democrat has a chance. (I also suppose I could've changed OH-12 and put Morrow County in instead of splitting Union County, something I didn't do in my previous map because it made OH-15 an ugly monstrosity.)

Proportionality: 81 (Partisan bias of 64/100)
Competitiveness: 35
Minority Representation: 48
Compactness: 74
Splitting: 70

It's basically 7R-4D on the safe or nearly safe seats. It leaves four competitive seats of varying degrees, from more D-friendly OH-05 to more R-friendly OH-10. I think this or my first map are both extraordinarily fair maps that meet both objective and subjective criteria as established by the voters. Relatively to the country as a whole, all of the competitive seats are to the right of the nation.

[Nyvin]

This isn't quite the fair, transparent, bipartisan process that the reform promised.  I think Ohio is the worst failure in the country when it comes to redistricting commissions.

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1460344870145597444

[Gass3268]

The quicker this thing passes the quicker the OHSC can kill it.

[Ab1234mdusr]

A rough 14-1 map I made:

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::17a83710-d2c7-4bef-a571-dff5d2f0d270

I challenge someone to make a better map, or even 15-0 (seems extremely difficult)