Ohio redistricting thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Better look:

Numbers on that 3rd?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

They f***ing better not put me in Gym Jordan’s district

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wait I'm confused what the OH GOP's goal is with that 3. At worst it's a pretty strong likely D, prolly around Biden + 18, (Republicans aren't winning it unless its a perfect storm), without being a max pack, and they just risk a racial gerrymander and more dummymander potential.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wait I'm confused what the OH GOP's goal is with that 3. At worst it's a pretty strong likely D, prolly around Biden + 18, (Republicans aren't winning it unless its a perfect storm), without being a max pack, and they just risk a racial gerrymander and more dummymander potential.

I tried to draw as heavily GOP a seat as possible within just Franklin County in DRA, and it turns out that despite a lot of Trump turf in the SW part of the county, it's just impossible.
Gerrymander as much as you like, it's impossible to get an R-winnable seat there. It's not 2000 anymore.

[lfromnj]

Looking at it, the senate proposed map seems to be a sort of competitive mander in Columbus where the trends are GOP favorable or neutralish? Cordray did win the southern seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

What’s the purpose of the new Jim Jordan district? Either it’s to bait Democratic into pouring money into the seat or to push Jordan towards a Senate run.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What’s the purpose of the new Jim Jordan district? Either it’s to bait Democratic into pouring money into the seat or to push Jordan towards a Senate run.

Why not both?

[lfromnj]

What’s the purpose of the new Jim Jordan district? Either it’s to bait Democratic into pouring money into the seat or to push Jordan towards a Senate run.

I mean Jordan taking Delaware county has been the obvious move for a long time. Not sure why it needs to take the black areas though.

[Minnesota Mike]

Taking the OH GOP redistricting compromise and pulling a real redistricting commission ballot initiative really seems to working out for Democrats doesn't it.

[David Hume]

What’s the purpose of the new Jim Jordan district? Either it’s to bait Democratic into pouring money into the seat or to push Jordan towards a Senate run.

I find the senate map ridiculus. Why not just draw a clean and safe 13-2 map?

[bagelman]

What’s the purpose of the new Jim Jordan district? Either it’s to bait Democratic into pouring money into the seat or to push Jordan towards a Senate run.

I find the senate map ridiculus. Why not just draw a clean and safe 13-2 map?

They think that 2022 midterms and 2024 general will favor the GOP because of Biden's unpopularity so they decide nows the time to go all out. There's an outside chance for 14-1 with the state senate map and not likely Dems win more than 2. In 2025 they redraw for a safer gerrymander depending on what happens, if they need to go on the defensive for 2026.

[Torie]

Better look:

Numbers on that 3rd?

The way the city of Columbus is chopped can't possibly comply with the requirement that you make an effort to put as much of that city in one CD as reasonably practicable counting surrounded cities as part of the city.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/JacksonMartinKS/status/1455920087085559814?t=6mo6Vzf1R3zstgf...

Yes, this butt ugly map is legal and skillfully done.

[Devils30]

Better look:

Numbers on that 3rd?

The way the city of Columbus is chopped can't possibly comply with the requirement that you make an effort to put as much of that city in one CD as reasonably practicable counting surrounded cities as part of the city.

What is the 4th's numbers in 2020?

[Tintrlvr]

Better look:

Numbers on that 3rd?

The way the city of Columbus is chopped can't possibly comply with the requirement that you make an effort to put as much of that city in one CD as reasonably practicable counting surrounded cities as part of the city.

What is the 4th's numbers in 2020?

I tried recreating it on DRA. I think it's about Trump+6 (52-46). Which doesn't feel very reassuring for the Republicans given that it includes the fastest D-trending part of the state in southern Delaware County. OH-15 is also only around the same partisanship, too, though with an area that is less D-trending so maybe less risky.

Really don't understand what they intend in Franklin County. They clearly carved out the very most Democratic parts of Franklin County into other districts, but OH-03 is still Biden+20 so still unwinnable for the Republicans, and it puts both OH-04 and OH-15 at risk.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder if the 15th is winnable for Ds. Probably not, but the  Biden % could be quite high, given how lightly populated in density terms the non-Franklin portion is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Better look:

Numbers on that 3rd?

The way the city of Columbus is chopped can't possibly comply with the requirement that you make an effort to put as much of that city in one CD as reasonably practicable counting surrounded cities as part of the city.

What is the 4th's numbers in 2020?

I tried recreating it on DRA. I think it's about Trump+6 (52-46). Which doesn't feel very reassuring for the Republicans given that it includes the fastest D-trending part of the state in southern Delaware County.

It's also worth noting that Union County is also trending D quite fast and that is going to be probably almost 10% of the CD's vote.

[Tintrlvr]

I wonder if the 15th is winnable for Ds. Probably not, but the  Biden % could be quite high, given how lightly populated in density terms the non-Franklin portion is.

I edited my post - went back and calculated and it's actually marginally more D than the proposed 4th in 2020 (around Trump+5), though with less favorable trends.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder if the 15th is winnable for Ds. Probably not, but the  Biden % could be quite high, given how lightly populated in density terms the non-Franklin portion is.

I edited my post - went back and calculated and it's actually marginally more D than the proposed 4th in 2020 (around Trump+5), though with less favorable trends.

Interesting.
I would not have guessed that it would be that close. Guess my gut instincts were leading me in the right direction though, as all those counties are huge on the map but have something like 20k-25k people sometimes, and I even noted as such.

[Torie]

I see (and did not previously know) that Ohio just like New York has a proscribes Congressional maps that unduly favor one party. Just how one could argue these maps do not unduly favor the Pubs escapes me. And the best thing of all, is that the Pubs will have to explain in writing why their mappies are not Pubmanders. That should make for an interesting read.



NYS nixed the Dem Constitutional amendment reducing the supra majority threshold to 60%, and the Dem extreme gerrymander maps are DOA now I think, even if the NYS high court is hack city, which I tend to doubt.

Oh, and that effective map that needs to be packaged as not a Pubmander also unnecessarily illegally chops a city of more than 100K population, to wit, Akron. Have all the smart people left flyover county, so that only dumbs remain, or what? Very sad!

[Torie]

Oh, they also illegally chopped Toledo too, bless them. Pro bono, I cleaned up the mess for them, including jettisoning the gratuitous and excess chops and erosity in the subject illicit CD’s (OH-09 and 13). Alas, it makes OH-13 tossup to tilt Dem in the process of moving towards legalizing the map at least as to the matter of avoiding violating bright line rules. But hey, it makes the job of the Pub hacks on the Ohio Supremes to be a tad less heavy in managing to fail to see a Pubmander through their rose-colored glasses. I would love to be a judge on the Ohio Supremes. I suspect I might be able to reduce the Pubmanderers to tears during oral argument, yes I do.  



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e4b51a66-0871-4f34-b6e6-c526395584c3

[Torie]

Better look:

Numbers on that 3rd?

The way the city of Columbus is chopped can't possibly comply with the requirement that you make an effort to put as much of that city in one CD as reasonably practicable counting surrounded cities as part of the city.

What is the 4th's numbers in 2020?

I tried recreating it on DRA. I think it's about Trump+6 (52-46). Which doesn't feel very reassuring for the Republicans given that it includes the fastest D-trending part of the state in southern Delaware County. OH-15 is also only around the same partisanship, too, though with an area that is less D-trending so maybe less risky.

Really don't understand what they intend in Franklin County. They clearly carved out the very most Democratic parts of Franklin County into other districts, but OH-03 is still Biden+20 so still unwinnable for the Republicans, and it puts both OH-04 and OH-15 at risk.

I imported the map, so below is a link to it. I checked the allow editing button. Enjoy.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a7766acd-5fba-47d4-9c95-3d81b100565f

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Better look:

Numbers on that 3rd?

The way the city of Columbus is chopped can't possibly comply with the requirement that you make an effort to put as much of that city in one CD as reasonably practicable counting surrounded cities as part of the city.

What is the 4th's numbers in 2020?

I tried recreating it on DRA. I think it's about Trump+6 (52-46). Which doesn't feel very reassuring for the Republicans given that it includes the fastest D-trending part of the state in southern Delaware County. OH-15 is also only around the same partisanship, too, though with an area that is less D-trending so maybe less risky.

Really don't understand what they intend in Franklin County. They clearly carved out the very most Democratic parts of Franklin County into other districts, but OH-03 is still Biden+20 so still unwinnable for the Republicans, and it puts both OH-04 and OH-15 at risk.

I don’t think Gym Jordan would be able to hold an R+6 seat, especially one rapidly trending D

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Part of me actually doesn't mind (some parts of) this map. The trends in Franklin should render both seats competitive in a neutral year, if still R leaning. It tries to be an Rmander but mainly becomes a competitivemander above all else.
But the rest of the map is just ugly. (Good lord, what they did to Toledo...)

[UncleSam]

Better look:

Numbers on that 3rd?

The way the city of Columbus is chopped can't possibly comply with the requirement that you make an effort to put as much of that city in one CD as reasonably practicable counting surrounded cities as part of the city.

What is the 4th's numbers in 2020?

I tried recreating it on DRA. I think it's about Trump+6 (52-46). Which doesn't feel very reassuring for the Republicans given that it includes the fastest D-trending part of the state in southern Delaware County. OH-15 is also only around the same partisanship, too, though with an area that is less D-trending so maybe less risky.

Really don't understand what they intend in Franklin County. They clearly carved out the very most Democratic parts of Franklin County into other districts, but OH-03 is still Biden+20 so still unwinnable for the Republicans, and it puts both OH-04 and OH-15 at risk.

I imported the map, so below is a link to it. I checked the allow editing button. Enjoy.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a7766acd-5fba-47d4-9c95-3d81b100565f

Ngl that monstrosity looks like a potential dummymander in a blue wave year. 6-7 of those districts could easily go Dem in the right environment.