Ohio redistricting thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's a hypothetical Ohio max gerrymander that still abides by redistricting rules and doesn't look horrendous.

Amazing how OH-02 is "only" Trump + 6 in this map, basically only takes in Cinci proper, and shows the extent of teh urban-rural divide. Since most of Dems Hamilton gains have been in the suburbs, it should probably be ok for the decade, and infact rurals and improvements with minorities could easily push it rightwards.

How did the rest-of-Franklin CD vote?

Trump + 8 and Trump + 12. Should hold for the decade but def the most vulnerable. Picks up the reddest and most "r shifting" WWC parts of the county.

Impressive, well-designed map, if I say so myself.
Have you the DRA link?

Thanks!

here ya go!

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cbbb147b-787c-4bac-9316-068f87f5032a

[ProgressiveModerate]

That map is better...

But why can't the GOP just get over the fact a court will likely not accept anything that has a Hamilton-only district?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's the best map I could draw for Dems within the law and within reason. 9 and 13 are both Biden + 8 in 2020; not safe, but it's hard to make them much bluer without doing something funny with Cuyahoga.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Everyone needs to chill out. I think the court just basically asked for a new suit to be filed.

Ye. that's what the wording indicates and if push, comes to shove, they can just push back the primary

[ProgressiveModerate]

I just calculated, the leftovers of Cuyahoga and Lorain are just barely too big to fit in a district.

I'm personally not a fan of the County splitting rule because especially in NE Ohio it creates very limited options, many of which are not even good options.

I'd personally Split Cuyahoga 3 ways to create a 45%ish black OH-11 centered around Cleveland; OH-14 takes in a few townships to the East and a Lorain based OH-07 or whatever you want to call it takes in most of the white suburbs in the West.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/OPoliticsguru/status/1506058528762515458?s=20&t=viiILbuP...

Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Looks like the tweet was deleted. What's going on here?

Just the court order demanding a responce from the defendants today after the suit was filed yesterday.

Do you have another source for it? The fact it was deleted makes me wonder if it was fake.

If that was legit, then the delay must be about to expire.

Here you go.

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1506024935193550860

RRH Elections on Twitter says that this suit is only to get a new map for 2024; however the court and the plaintiffs actions would suggest otherwise. Anyone have more insight?

It seems like there’s 2 different suits from my understanding one of which is seeking immediately overturn the map while the other is for 2024.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/OPoliticsguru/status/1506058528762515458?s=20&t=viiILbuP...

Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Looks like the tweet was deleted. What's going on here?

Just the court order demanding a responce from the defendants today after the suit was filed yesterday.

Do you have another source for it? The fact it was deleted makes me wonder if it was fake.

If that was legit, then the delay must be about to expire.

Here you go.

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1506024935193550860

RRH Elections on Twitter says that this suit is only to get a new map for 2024; however the court and the plaintiffs actions would suggest otherwise. Anyone have more insight?

It seems like there’s 2 different suits from my understanding one of which is seeking immediately overturn the map while the other is for 2024.

The ACLU lawsuit is for 2024 but the other one is for 2022.

I think it’s just RRH being way too happy on Twitter messing with me lol. Seems to think it’s a sure victory for Rs when it’s far from it

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/JoshRultNews/status/1508884995225669639?s=20&t=HQ7APTrth...

Next state leg developments.

TBF, they did consistently violate court orders and were acting in bad faith. It would be hilarious if the GOP got it's gerrymander at the cost of the Governor spending time in prison (Though the map can still be overturned and I rlly doubt they'd go to prison)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why is the court dragging this out? Isn't it 4-3 because of Oconnor

Cause they want due process; since the previous case the court said they had final say or whatever they have to start over from scratch in many ways.

This is another example of Republicans watering down the ballot initiative cause they knew something like this would happen reguardless of whether we get an actual fair map or not in the end. An actual commission needs to get on the ballot so this mess doesn't happen again.

Dems would be smart to go MI style and make proportionality a criteria at least in congressional maps. An AZ style commission where the GOP can moderately hack it could lead to basically the current map except a safe D Hamilton seat and a 2nd Columbus seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If this map does end up being the final map and stays in place for the decade, should Dems still be thankful to some degree? A maximal gerrymander even with the new laws would be 13-2. While there's a good chance this map would go 13-2 in 2022, OH-01 would be a very good pickup opportunity later on. After that, there's about 4 or 5 other seats they should be able to be competitive in, which isn't terrible considering that Ohio is getting pretty R overall.

Furthermore, a court drawn map would only last for 4 years at most (or 2 cycles), one of which is likely to be terrible for Dems anyways. After those 4 years the GOP could re-gerry to something more aggressive with what is very likely to be a more favorable court.

The main thing with the current map is even though there are quite a few narrow R leaning seats, basically all of them have been shifting rightwards or at best stagnant. Tbh Ohio as a whole is shifting right, but I could see how the current map becomes a pretty secure 12-3 by decades end.

Obviously not having a fair map is a huge L for Dems, I guess what I'm asking isn't this still better than a lot of outcomes as well?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I really want an actual commission on the ballot ASAP. This has been a disaster.

Also proportionality should never be a criteria. As a state becomes more politically lopsided it can become harder and in some cases impossible to achieve.

Also the county splitting rule is absolute garbage especially on the state legislative level.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If this goes through, hope that the Dems don’t make the same mistake they did last time and actually vote for it if it’s not as bad of a map as it could be, not because it’s completely fair or gives them everything they want. My guess is republicans just slightly reconfigure the current map as they did last time and hope the court flips soon. It’s hard to see them completely giving up on any of their incumbents so I suspect they’ll try for a map that has a good chance of being 13-2

Anyways, something needs to get on the ballot in 2024; either a less arbitrary set of rules or a full commission.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I kinda want to see the court try and draw a least change map that follows the rules for the lols

[ProgressiveModerate]

That map looks illegal cause Columbus appears to be split 3 ways and certain individual districts appear to have too many county splits, namely CD-05.

[ProgressiveModerate]

That map looks illegal cause Columbus appears to be split 3 ways and certain individual districts appear to have too many county splits, namely CD-05.

Nope Columbus is only split twice and there are only eleven counties that are split on the map. I followed all the splitting rules in the amendment. All the large cities are intact as well.

Ok mb. Then ye, something like that technically works if you push aside the partisan fairness requirements (which are vauge and a Conservative Court would likely be leniant on).

When Rs wrote the amendment, I think they did so knowing that it would still allow them to persue close to a maximal gerrymander, especially since the Amendment basically forces a Cleveland pack and doesn't regulate how much any individual County can be split.

Is the political willpower there to go full 13-2? I'm not sure, especially cause their intial maps weren't or at least kept a few districts sorta competative for incumbent wants such as OH-15 taking in banks in Columbus or letting Turner pretty much keep his same district. Part of it may depend upon who wins the House in 2022 and who wins several key Ohio House races. The best case scenario for Dems in a redrawn House map would be if Rs have a big congressional majority they feel comfortable with yet Dems still flip OH-01 and hold OH-09, meaning the GOP might not be as aggressive in ridding of them than if the House is close or if Dems outright win the House.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Ohio Rs were smart. This is truly the cleanest 13-2 gerrymander I could come up. Practically in a normal year it'd prolly be more like 12-3 but that's still a very good deal for Rs.

District 2 is Trump + 1 but is extremely stagnant and polarized.

13 is Trump + 3 and trending rigthwards. Honestly the current OH-13 is actually in a pretty favorable config for Dems given it takes in Canton so they should feel lucky.

15 is Trump + 7. I tried to take in more of the working-class suburbs of Columbus but overall, the district is still shifting left and could become a liability. To make a truly maximal gerrymander you have to crack Franklin County 3 ways.

7 is Trump + 9 and very simillar to the current iteration. Given Cleveland's population loss, it should be fine.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Your OH-2 is very narrow but all Republicans need to do is win the turnout game against low-propensity inner city voters. Democrats would need to count on population gains in downtown Cincinnati, and while Cincy is no Cleveland it's also no Columbus. Nice work, if I were a freedom-hating Republican I'd be very pleased with this map.

Thank you. Honestly the alternative for OH-02 is to make OH-01 more competitive which seems like a bad trade given it’s suburban nature or to do something horrendous to Hamilton and split it 3 ways. Downtown Cinci proper has had far less extreme leftwards shifts and population shifts when compared to the surrounding suburbs, so most of Dems gains this decade would be in the redder OH-01.

I’m praying for the day when Columbus grows too big it’ll need 2 sinks.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Your OH-2 is very narrow but all Republicans need to do is win the turnout game against low-propensity inner city voters. Democrats would need to count on population gains in downtown Cincinnati, and while Cincy is no Cleveland it's also no Columbus. Nice work, if I were a freedom-hating Republican I'd be very pleased with this map.

Thank you. Honestly the alternative for OH-02 is to make OH-01 more competitive which seems like a bad trade given it’s suburban nature or to do something horrendous to Hamilton and split it 3 ways. Downtown Cinci proper has had far less extreme leftwards shifts and population shifts when compared to the surrounding suburbs, so most of Dems gains this decade would be in the redder OH-01.

I’m praying for the day when Columbus grows too big it’ll need 2 sinks.

I don't think the Pubs will draw that OH-02 or yours because it is demographically incoherent. The Pubs will nominate some toxic hinterlands type who will massively under perform in higher SES precincts and be a money drain and an embarrassment.

Did you check out the 2016-2020 trend for your OH-02? It looks brutal against the Pubs.

2 is stagnant. It’s 1 that is zooming left but 1 also went to Trump by like 13.

Honestly there’s no silver bullet for how to deal with Cinci

[ProgressiveModerate]

Your OH-2 is very narrow but all Republicans need to do is win the turnout game against low-propensity inner city voters. Democrats would need to count on population gains in downtown Cincinnati, and while Cincy is no Cleveland it's also no Columbus. Nice work, if I were a freedom-hating Republican I'd be very pleased with this map.

Thank you. Honestly the alternative for OH-02 is to make OH-01 more competitive which seems like a bad trade given it’s suburban nature or to do something horrendous to Hamilton and split it 3 ways. Downtown Cinci proper has had far less extreme leftwards shifts and population shifts when compared to the surrounding suburbs, so most of Dems gains this decade would be in the redder OH-01.

I’m praying for the day when Columbus grows too big it’ll need 2 sinks.

I don't think the Pubs will draw that OH-02 or yours because it is demographically incoherent. The Pubs will nominate some toxic hinterlands type who will massively under perform in higher SES precincts and be a money drain and an embarrassment.

Did you check out the 2016-2020 trend for your OH-02? It looks brutal against the Pubs.

2 is stagnant. It’s 1 that is zooming left but 1 also went to Trump by like 13.

Honestly there’s no silver bullet for how to deal with Cinci

You want to post a link to you map? I can make the case that that ridiculous CD is foolish, even if the Ohio supremes go hack city on steroids. The silver bullet is to give the Dems the Cinci cd. At this point they should just leave the current mess alone, and snatch back OH-09 and OH-13. Pity that both districts might then nominate bat sh**t crazies like OH-09 did this time.

But the fact Cinci is still crack-able but barely. I think it'd be worth it for the GOP to do a swing seat and a safe seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Your OH-2 is very narrow but all Republicans need to do is win the turnout game against low-propensity inner city voters. Democrats would need to count on population gains in downtown Cincinnati, and while Cincy is no Cleveland it's also no Columbus. Nice work, if I were a freedom-hating Republican I'd be very pleased with this map.

Thank you. Honestly the alternative for OH-02 is to make OH-01 more competitive which seems like a bad trade given it’s suburban nature or to do something horrendous to Hamilton and split it 3 ways. Downtown Cinci proper has had far less extreme leftwards shifts and population shifts when compared to the surrounding suburbs, so most of Dems gains this decade would be in the redder OH-01.

I’m praying for the day when Columbus grows too big it’ll need 2 sinks.

I don't think the Pubs will draw that OH-02 or yours because it is demographically incoherent. The Pubs will nominate some toxic hinterlands type who will massively under perform in higher SES precincts and be a money drain and an embarrassment.

Did you check out the 2016-2020 trend for your OH-02? It looks brutal against the Pubs.

2 is stagnant. It’s 1 that is zooming left but 1 also went to Trump by like 13.

Honestly there’s no silver bullet for how to deal with Cinci

The silver bullet is drawing Cinci to the North

That is most quite right, assuming the court has zero interest in even having a fig leaf when it comes to applying the law.

At the end of the day Cinci HAS to be kept whole so in order to drag it north, it has to take in some other swingy Hamilton Suburbs which would make it a left-shifting suburban Biden district sort of like the current config

To keep Cinci in a narrow stagnant Trump district you have to pair it with eastern rurals

[ProgressiveModerate]

Your OH-2 is very narrow but all Republicans need to do is win the turnout game against low-propensity inner city voters. Democrats would need to count on population gains in downtown Cincinnati, and while Cincy is no Cleveland it's also no Columbus. Nice work, if I were a freedom-hating Republican I'd be very pleased with this map.

Thank you. Honestly the alternative for OH-02 is to make OH-01 more competitive which seems like a bad trade given it’s suburban nature or to do something horrendous to Hamilton and split it 3 ways. Downtown Cinci proper has had far less extreme leftwards shifts and population shifts when compared to the surrounding suburbs, so most of Dems gains this decade would be in the redder OH-01.

I’m praying for the day when Columbus grows too big it’ll need 2 sinks.

I don't think the Pubs will draw that OH-02 or yours because it is demographically incoherent. The Pubs will nominate some toxic hinterlands type who will massively under perform in higher SES precincts and be a money drain and an embarrassment.

Did you check out the 2016-2020 trend for your OH-02? It looks brutal against the Pubs.

2 is stagnant. It’s 1 that is zooming left but 1 also went to Trump by like 13.

Honestly there’s no silver bullet for how to deal with Cinci

The silver bullet is drawing Cinci to the North

That is most quite right, assuming the court has zero interest in even having a fig leaf when it comes to applying the law.

At the end of the day Cinci HAS to be kept whole so in order to drag it north, it has to take in some other swingy Hamilton Suburbs which would make it a left-shifting suburban Biden district sort of like the current config

To keep Cinci in a narrow stagnant Trump district you have to pair it with eastern rurals

Yeah, the go north plan is in fact a fail so praise the Lord on that. But the go east plan is also a fail, as the link to the depopulating rurals vis higher SES suburbs will also have a short half life, and all of this is a poster child as to just why it is all just so wrong, when the law says no.

That district would be illegal because it either has to be nested entirely within a county or take in an entire county. No way to avoid Oxford, but it's pretty small at the end of the day

[ProgressiveModerate]

Your OH-2 is very narrow but all Republicans need to do is win the turnout game against low-propensity inner city voters. Democrats would need to count on population gains in downtown Cincinnati, and while Cincy is no Cleveland it's also no Columbus. Nice work, if I were a freedom-hating Republican I'd be very pleased with this map.

Thank you. Honestly the alternative for OH-02 is to make OH-01 more competitive which seems like a bad trade given it’s suburban nature or to do something horrendous to Hamilton and split it 3 ways. Downtown Cinci proper has had far less extreme leftwards shifts and population shifts when compared to the surrounding suburbs, so most of Dems gains this decade would be in the redder OH-01.

I’m praying for the day when Columbus grows too big it’ll need 2 sinks.

I don't think the Pubs will draw that OH-02 or yours because it is demographically incoherent. The Pubs will nominate some toxic hinterlands type who will massively under perform in higher SES precincts and be a money drain and an embarrassment.

Did you check out the 2016-2020 trend for your OH-02? It looks brutal against the Pubs.

2 is stagnant. It’s 1 that is zooming left but 1 also went to Trump by like 13.

Honestly there’s no silver bullet for how to deal with Cinci

You want to post a link to you map? I can make the case that that ridiculous CD is foolish, even if the Ohio supremes go hack city on steroids. The silver bullet is to give the Dems the Cinci cd. At this point they should just leave the current mess alone, and snatch back OH-09 and OH-13. Pity that both districts might then nominate bat sh**t crazies like OH-09 did this time.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/edb0df17-1452-4672-bbc0-330f8a76d95b

[ProgressiveModerate]

Your OH-2 is very narrow but all Republicans need to do is win the turnout game against low-propensity inner city voters. Democrats would need to count on population gains in downtown Cincinnati, and while Cincy is no Cleveland it's also no Columbus. Nice work, if I were a freedom-hating Republican I'd be very pleased with this map.

Thank you. Honestly the alternative for OH-02 is to make OH-01 more competitive which seems like a bad trade given it’s suburban nature or to do something horrendous to Hamilton and split it 3 ways. Downtown Cinci proper has had far less extreme leftwards shifts and population shifts when compared to the surrounding suburbs, so most of Dems gains this decade would be in the redder OH-01.

I’m praying for the day when Columbus grows too big it’ll need 2 sinks.

I don't think the Pubs will draw that OH-02 or yours because it is demographically incoherent. The Pubs will nominate some toxic hinterlands type who will massively under perform in higher SES precincts and be a money drain and an embarrassment.

Did you check out the 2016-2020 trend for your OH-02? It looks brutal against the Pubs.

2 is stagnant. It’s 1 that is zooming left but 1 also went to Trump by like 13.

Honestly there’s no silver bullet for how to deal with Cinci

The silver bullet is drawing Cinci to the North

That is most quite right, assuming the court has zero interest in even having a fig leaf when it comes to applying the law.

At the end of the day Cinci HAS to be kept whole so in order to drag it north, it has to take in some other swingy Hamilton Suburbs which would make it a left-shifting suburban Biden district sort of like the current config

To keep Cinci in a narrow stagnant Trump district you have to pair it with eastern rurals

Yeah, the go north plan is in fact a fail so praise the Lord on that. But the go east plan is also a fail, as the link to the depopulating rurals vis higher SES suburbs will also have a short half life, and all of this is a poster child as to just why it is all just so wrong, when the law says no.

That district would be illegal because it either has to be nested entirely within a county or take in an entire county. No way to avoid Oxford, but it's pretty small at the end of the day

OK, so it becomes a bit more of a fail to fix that, from it's already fail status.

That's why Rs paired it with slightly less populated and slightly redder Warren County in both of their maps.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The maximum efficiency Southwest Ohio gerrymander.

Does that actually balance population? Some how the 2 Hamilton County districts look overpopulated

[ProgressiveModerate]

The maximum efficiency Southwest Ohio gerrymander.

Does that actually balance population? Some how the 2 Hamilton County districts look overpopulated

Yeah

Damn, ig it's because it completely avoids Warren and Butler Counties. I think a lot of people (myself included) underestimate just how highly populated Warren, Butler, and to a lesser degree Clermont County is and how many votes they net for the GOP.

If Dems want to have any path back to being remotely competitive in OH, cutting into the GOP margins out of these 3 counties would be key, combined with continued population loss of rural areas and growth of Columbus. By then party coalitions may look completely different though.