Ohio redistricting thread

[Oryxslayer]

Frankly, if a state Supreme Court strikes down a map, they should be required to draw a replacement.

Yes, but sometimes they don't have the power/authority to do so and must jump through hoops to get there. And Ohio has finally hit that point. Onto the special masters it is.

[Gass3268]

Are we sure that the Congressional map will now need to be redrawn in 4 years? I've seen some legal interpretation that may only apply to the legislative maps.

[lfromnj]

Frankly, if a state Supreme Court strikes down a map, they should be required to draw a replacement.

None of this crap.

They literally can't draw a legislative map.

[lfromnj]

Anyway Changes from Original map as its close enough

Toledo I think is 1 point more D.

Akron seat is 2 more points for Biden and a few more points D downballot like Clinton/Cordray numbers.

Cinci seat is Biden +1 to Biden +8.

Columbus seat is Trump +5 to Trump +7. Note the seat was ugly before but not entirely for partisan reasons. It was just to let Carey keep representing the rich banks in the center of the county.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway Changes from Original map as its close enough

Toledo I think is 1 point more D.

Akron seat is 2 more points for Biden and a few more points D downballot like Clinton/Cordray numbers.

Cinci seat is Biden +1 to Biden +8.

Columbus seat is Trump +5 to Trump +7. Note the seat was ugly before but not entirely for partisan reasons. It was just to let Carey keep representing the rich banks in the center of the county.

I mean the fact that there barely were changes should be proof enough the commission GOP would never play ball and the court will need to see their own order to conclusion.

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1498741299083718664?s=20&t=6fOGsS7CHjg...

[politicallefty]

Wtf is that 15th?

And obviously, they kept the ever-so logical Lorain to Mercer district.

[Nyvin]

It's like a middle finger to the court.

[lfromnj]

Wtf is that 15th?

And obviously, they kept the ever-so logical Lorain to Mercer district.

Lazily drawn leftover gerrymander. Could just go South for only a 1 point loss in partisanship but it just seems like it takes the left overs of the Dayton district, Troy, and Jordan's seat. Entire map just seems basically a complete refusal to draw anything.

[kwabbit]

If they're going to draw a D-trending Biden +8 seat, why not just draw the fair Cinci configuration? Cincinatti and Warren was the most obvious flaw of the first map, but they basically just kept it.

[Oryxslayer]

If they're going to draw a D-trending Biden +8 seat, why not just draw the fair Cinci configuration? Cincinatti and Warren was the most obvious flaw of the first map, but they basically just kept it.

Because this isn't a serious proposal. In the games of state power, it appears to be more beneficial to recognizably die on a hill preserving incumbent seats - Chabot's and Jordan's for example - rather than cooperate with the court and be the one who has to tell some members they may need to go home or run against each other. Far more simple to get an outsider from the court to do that move.

[Person Man]

What's the likely change in the composition at the state level and the game of play for the federal level given that they have two weeks?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why canta the OH GOP draw a normal map. They’ve had so many chances

[GALeftist]

So how long will the court map be valid for

[BoiseBoy]

Wow, these scum Republicans on the commission have no intention of drawing a compliant map. I wish nothing but horrible things on them.

[UncleSam]

Wow, these scum Republicans on the commission have no intention of drawing a compliant map. I wish nothing but horrible things on them.

Really lol

Where was this outrage for Illinois Dems

This is so over the top it’s kinda hilarious

[GALeftist]

Wow, these scum Republicans on the commission have no intention of drawing a compliant map. I wish nothing but horrible things on them.

Really lol

Where was this outrage for Illinois Dems

This is so over the top it’s kinda hilarious

For the umpteenth time, Illinois Democrats didn't even break the law, let alone flagrantly violate court orders multiple times.

[UncleSam]

Wow, these scum Republicans on the commission have no intention of drawing a compliant map. I wish nothing but horrible things on them.

Really lol

Where was this outrage for Illinois Dems

This is so over the top it’s kinda hilarious

For the umpteenth time, Illinois Democrats didn't even break the law, let alone flagrantly violate court orders multiple times.

Sigh

You can see the exact same outrage in the NC thread if you like, where Rs did not break the law because the law is the exact fking same as it is in IL, just there are partisan actors posing as ‘judges’ on the State Supreme Court. So no this is not a valid response. We all know that the outrage is centered solely on R gerrymanders and it’a basically proven to me that both sides just want maps to be biased in their favor and that Ds do not have the moral high ground on this one the way I thought they did.

[jamestroll]

Wow, these scum Republicans on the commission have no intention of drawing a compliant map. I wish nothing but horrible things on them.

Really lol

Where was this outrage for Illinois Dems

This is so over the top it’s kinda hilarious

For the umpteenth time, Illinois Democrats didn't even break the law, let alone flagrantly violate court orders multiple times.

Sigh

You can see the exact same outrage in the NC thread if you like, where Rs did not break the law because the law is the exact fking same as it is in IL, just there are partisan actors posing as ‘judges’ on the State Supreme Court. So no this is not a valid response. We all know that the outrage is centered solely on R gerrymanders and it’a basically proven to me that both sides just want maps to be biased in their favor and that Ds do not have the moral high ground on this one the way I thought they did.

What is the point of having elections if every result is predetermined via gerrymandering?

I do not defend Dem gerrymander's either. The ones in IL and NY are prone to back firing.

[kwabbit]

If they're going to draw a D-trending Biden +8 seat, why not just draw the fair Cinci configuration? Cincinatti and Warren was the most obvious flaw of the first map, but they basically just kept it.

Because this isn't a serious proposal. In the games of state power, it appears to be more beneficial to recognizably die on a hill preserving incumbent seats - Chabot's and Jordan's for example - rather than cooperate with the court and be the one who has to tell some members they may need to go home or run against each other. Far more simple to get an outsider from the court to do that move.

I know it's not a serious proposal, but if it isn't, why are they even changing the Cincinnati + Warren seat. They kept it ugly but made the partisanship worse for them.

[lfromnj]

Wow, these scum Republicans on the commission have no intention of drawing a compliant map. I wish nothing but horrible things on them.

Really lol

Where was this outrage for Illinois Dems

This is so over the top it’s kinda hilarious

For the umpteenth time, Illinois Democrats didn't even break the law, let alone flagrantly violate court orders multiple times.

Sigh

You can see the exact same outrage in the NC thread if you like, where Rs did not break the law because the law is the exact fking same as it is in IL, just there are partisan actors posing as ‘judges’ on the State Supreme Court. So no this is not a valid response. We all know that the outrage is centered solely on R gerrymanders and it’a basically proven to me that both sides just want maps to be biased in their favor and that Ds do not have the moral high ground on this one the way I thought they did.

FYI IL legislative districts are supposed to be reasonably compact according to the state constitution.

[Smash255]

If they're going to draw a D-trending Biden +8 seat, why not just draw the fair Cinci configuration? Cincinatti and Warren was the most obvious flaw of the first map, but they basically just kept it.

Because this isn't a serious proposal. In the games of state power, it appears to be more beneficial to recognizably die on a hill preserving incumbent seats - Chabot's and Jordan's for example - rather than cooperate with the court and be the one who has to tell some members they may need to go home or run against each other. Far more simple to get an outsider from the court to do that move.

I know it's not a serious proposal, but if it isn't, why are they even changing the Cincinnati + Warren seat. They kept it ugly but made the partisanship worse for them.

  By drawing a true Hamilton district seat would be gone, so they attempt to placate the court (which we all know this is headed) by arguing they made the Cincy seat more Democratic without likely losing the seat.  Chabot is entrenched enough that he likely holds a Biden +8 seat this year, and  would have a decent chance of winning in 2024 even if it is a similar environment to 2020

[kwabbit]

If they're going to draw a D-trending Biden +8 seat, why not just draw the fair Cinci configuration? Cincinatti and Warren was the most obvious flaw of the first map, but they basically just kept it.

Because this isn't a serious proposal. In the games of state power, it appears to be more beneficial to recognizably die on a hill preserving incumbent seats - Chabot's and Jordan's for example - rather than cooperate with the court and be the one who has to tell some members they may need to go home or run against each other. Far more simple to get an outsider from the court to do that move.

I know it's not a serious proposal, but if it isn't, why are they even changing the Cincinnati + Warren seat. They kept it ugly but made the partisanship worse for them.

  By drawing a true Hamilton district seat would be gone, so they attempt to placate the court (which we all know this is headed) by arguing they made the Cincy seat more Democratic without likely losing the seat.  Chabot is entrenched enough that he likely holds a Biden +8 seat this year, and  would have a decent chance of winning in 2024 even if it is a similar environment to 2020

I think he would be probably lose in a 2020 environment in 2024. He's a decent incumbent, but he only won by 4pts more than Trump. Especially since his district would be much different than his current one, so I doubt his overperformance would be as strong.

I think the GOP should've drawn a Clermont + Cincinnati + R parts of Hamilton. It looks less gerrymandery than CIN + Warren, and more R as well.

Wenstrup is a stronger incumbent than Chabot too, so he would've had a good chance to keep the seat.

[lfromnj]

If they're going to draw a D-trending Biden +8 seat, why not just draw the fair Cinci configuration? Cincinatti and Warren was the most obvious flaw of the first map, but they basically just kept it.

Because this isn't a serious proposal. In the games of state power, it appears to be more beneficial to recognizably die on a hill preserving incumbent seats - Chabot's and Jordan's for example - rather than cooperate with the court and be the one who has to tell some members they may need to go home or run against each other. Far more simple to get an outsider from the court to do that move.

I know it's not a serious proposal, but if it isn't, why are they even changing the Cincinnati + Warren seat. They kept it ugly but made the partisanship worse for them.

  By drawing a true Hamilton district seat would be gone, so they attempt to placate the court (which we all know this is headed) by arguing they made the Cincy seat more Democratic without likely losing the seat.  Chabot is entrenched enough that he likely holds a Biden +8 seat this year, and  would have a decent chance of winning in 2024 even if it is a similar environment to 2020

I think he would be probably lose in a 2020 environment in 2024. He's a decent incumbent, but he only won by 4pts more than Trump. Especially since his district would be much different than his current one, so I doubt his overperformance would be as strong.

I think the GOP should've drawn a Clermont + Cincinnati + R parts of Hamilton. It looks less gerrymandery than CIN + Warren, and more R as well.

Wenstrup is a stronger incumbent than Chabot too, so he would've had a good chance to keep the seat.

Neither would have worked . Wenstrup seems stronger although that's because he didn't really face any opponent while Chabot always faces whoever the main Dem challenger is for a Cincinatti seat. For example Vera/Vicente Gonzalez's seats are basically identical yet Vera won by a lot more because Gonzalez faced a semi legitimate challenger.

Also other than Warren County Chabot's seat is really polarized, deep blue black areas in Cincinatti and deep red areas in West Hamilton. Wenstrup takes the white upscale portions of the county along with less red rurals .

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's a hypothetical Ohio max gerrymander that still abides by redistricting rules and doesn't look horrendous.

Amazing how OH-02 is "only" Trump + 6 in this map, basically only takes in Cinci proper, and shows the extent of teh urban-rural divide. Since most of Dems Hamilton gains have been in the suburbs, it should probably be ok for the decade, and infact rurals and improvements with minorities could easily push it rightwards.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a hypothetical Ohio max gerrymander that still abides by redistricting rules and doesn't look horrendous.

Amazing how OH-02 is "only" Trump + 6 in this map, basically only takes in Cinci proper, and shows the extent of teh urban-rural divide. Since most of Dems Hamilton gains have been in the suburbs, it should probably be ok for the decade, and infact rurals and improvements with minorities could easily push it rightwards.

How did the rest-of-Franklin CD vote?