2020 Labour Leadership Election

[Babeuf]

NUM endorsed Yvette in 2015, so doesn't seem like a huge shock?

[CumbrianLefty]

I think the point has rather gone over your head too - the NUM these days is *minuscule*.

If she gets the GMB endorsement, that does indeed actually mean something (though given that it is still one of the more right-leaning unions, not that much as far as RLB is concerned)

[Lord Halifax]

I think the point has rather gone over your head too - the NUM these days is *minuscule*.

If she gets the GMB endorsement, that does indeed actually mean something (though given that it is still one of the more right-leaning unions, not that much as far as RLB is concerned)

She needs three affiliates inc. two trade unions, and their total membership to be more than 5% of the total Affiliated Membership. So getting NUM and GMB and some random third affiliate would be enough since GMB has more than 5% of the total affiliated membership.

[EastAnglianLefty]

There's a breakdown of affiliate votes from the 2010 leadership elections on Wikipedia. Some of the affiliates had fewer than a hundred votes cast.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The new ballot threshold requirements do lend tiny unions a level of influence over proceedings that they have never had before - provided that they co-operate with at least one large one. Which means that, very surprisingly, the NUM's nomination may matter in this instance. It wouldn't have done had they nominated a different candidate, but they did not.

Anyway, Jarvis nominating Nandy may have been an indicator of this development. I presume that a fairly high proportion of remaining NUM members work at their headquarters, which is in his constituency.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

She needs three affiliates inc. two trade unions, and their total membership to be more than 5% of the total Affiliated Membership. So getting NUM and GMB and some random third affiliate would be enough since GMB has more than 5% of the total affiliated membership.

She must have a reasonable shot at the Community endorsement, given that Kinnock has nominated her.

[LabourJersey]

That's good for Nandy, but what is the chance that she actually can pull off an upset? Is it setting up to be a Starmer vs. Long-Bailey battle or is this going to be more open?

[mileslunn]

What are the chances of Ian Murray being deputy leader?  Considering he is the lone MP from Scotland and historically Scotland was a Labour stronghold and will probably be an area they need to gain back to ever form government again, he seems like a decent choice for deputy leader.  Or is he seen as too moderate despite that is what is best for the party.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Murray has very particular ideas about how Scotland should be won back. They work for his seat, but his seat is not tremendously representative of the other seats where Labour is still viable in Scotland.

In any case, Rayner is still the overwhelming favourite for Deputy Leader.

[afleitch]

SLab is a bit of a nuisance to the main party I think; they don't want to 'win Scotland back' and I think in general would rather stand down here at Westminster.

[CumbrianLefty]

SLab is a bit of a nuisance to the main party I think; they don't want to 'win Scotland back' and I think in general would rather stand down here at Westminster.

I do rather think that is wishful thinking on your part, tbh.

What I will say is that there is a growing feeling that Scotland should "s*** or get off the pot ". The present stasis suits the cynical purposes of both the SNP and Tories, but arguably not Scots.

[DaWN]

SLab are not going to do that lol. Even if we accept the idea the SNP will put a Labour government into office (lol), the optics of standing down for them write the Tory campaign for itself.

SLab need to try and reconnect with their old core vote if they want to recover. The first step would be to drop all pretences that the SNP are potential allies. The second step would be to get rid of the useless twat they call their Leader.

[CumbrianLefty]

The last SLab leader of any use was forced to resign over bugger all after a few months.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Although there really are unique aspects that are tricky to deal with, Scottish Labour's biggest problem is an extreme version of the wider one: if the rationale for Labour's existence is the promise to make things better for ordinary people (and it is), then it will inevitably flounder if it cannot credibly do this. That 2017 was the one recent election where Labour was competitive in most of central Scotland is not coincidental.

[CumbrianLefty]

Meanwhile, the somewhat slow start of RLB's campaign has not gone unnoticed and LabourList is speculating that is partly down to internal tensions and disagreements. Her backing almost with alacrity (Starmer, somewhat more measuredly, just said he "supported" them) the proposals by the BoD to tackle AS in the party has gone down extremely badly with the "crank" contingent on Twitter - who have talked of spoiling their ballot papers, leaving the party or even supporting Galloway's new "Workers Party" (now, I wonder what *their* line on this might be?) One particularly choice contribution was that a "new breakaway left party" (no, that's never been tried before in the past century - no sirrree) should be set up led by, wait for it.......Chris Williamson

All of which just adds to the impression that it is Starmer's to lose now.

[Lumine]

A fascinating Survation Poll (of Labour List readers though)

First Round:
Long-Bailey: 42%
Starmer: 37%
Phillips: 9%
Nandy: 7%
Thornberry: 1% (LOL)

Final Round:
Long-Bailey: 51%
Starmer: 49%

Note: Apparently Clive Lewis was also polled, got 3%.

[Blair]

A fascinating Survation Poll (of Labour List readers though)

First Round:
Long-Bailey: 42%
Starmer: 37%
Phillips: 9%
Nandy: 7%
Thornberry: 1% (LOL)

Final Round:
Long-Bailey: 51%
Starmer: 49%

Note: Apparently Clive Lewis was also polled, got 3%.

I didn't need this today.

[CumbrianLefty]

Let's just wait and see what the next YouGov says, given their accuracy in the last two contests.

(the weightings in this one are already being questioned)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not a proper poll. Of course internal elections are so bizarre that one can never entirely discount anything.

[Zinneke]

Speaking of Scottish independence, Nandys bizarre comments on Catalonia... she's not as bright as some people (including the FT) think she is, is she?

[CumbrianLefty]

Though the Survation poll does seem at least believable on the deputy leadership scores - Rayner winning on the first ballot with 60%, outpolling Burgon by 3 to 1.

Indeed taking the Phillips/Murray "death to Corbynism forever" ticket's support (around 10%) and Burgon's total gives a good idea of the strength of the "irreconcilable" elements within the party. That still leaves about 70% who might be prepared to compromise to some degree, maybe all is not lost

[brucejoel99]

EXCLUSIVE: Long-Bailey backs stricter abortion laws

Asked if the overall time-limit for abortion should be reduced, Long-Bailey pledged that the Labour Party would consult on any changes to abortion regulations, and that she would "play her part" in "ensuring that [the Catholic Church's] views are heard."

If this is true, then wtf. She'll go down as Tim Farron 2.0

[Intell]

EXCLUSIVE: Long-Bailey backs stricter abortion laws

Asked if the overall time-limit for abortion should be reduced, Long-Bailey pledged that the Labour Party would consult on any changes to abortion regulations, and that she would "play her part" in "ensuring that [the Catholic Church's] views are heard."

If this is true, then wtf. She'll go down as Tim Farron 2.0

Long Bailey is seriously a FF isn't she. Two beautiful candidates in this race, Long Bailey and Nandy going to be hard to pick between them.

[CumbrianLefty]

I seriously would not trust Red Roar to tell me what colour the sky above my head was.

RLB has already rebutted this convincingly.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

This is weird, but I am oddly liking RLB more and more as the campaign moves on.