Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1232738409262800896
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1232746351819137024

Good news for Bernie is that Biden (and everyone else but Bloomy) is out of their money.

South Carolina could be a game changer in the financial sense if not politically.

Biden wins going away and the media narrative is he has a real shot: money flows in
Biden wins by small margin and media narrative is his candidacy has nowhere to go: broke as a joke

It’s still not a great sign that Biden has spent no money on Super Tuesday states. Ensuring a big win in South Carolina is important for his campaign (though admittedly one of his best states should have never been competitive in the first place). However, he lacks the organizational strength of his opponents who have been heavily campaigning in ST states for the past few weeks - namely Sanders and Bloomberg. Despite  the latter’s relative weakened position after the last two debates, the amount of money Bloomberg has thrown in should not be underestimated and polling has shown that he still maintains reasonably high support which should worry Biden.

He's counting on three days of free media. Which TBH, isn't a bad expectation. There's also the fact that Biden is/was bankrupt, if he failed to win SC he would be dropping out on Tuesday night. An investment in SC is something Biden hopes will pay off as donors and the grassroots give him greater attention again.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1232738409262800896
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1232746351819137024

Good news for Bernie is that Biden (and everyone else but Bloomy) is out of their money.

South Carolina could be a game changer in the financial sense if not politically.

Biden wins going away and the media narrative is he has a real shot: money flows in
Biden wins by small margin and media narrative is his candidacy has nowhere to go: broke as a joke

It’s still not a great sign that Biden has spent no money on Super Tuesday states. Ensuring a big win in South Carolina is important for his campaign (though admittedly one of his best states should have never been competitive in the first place). However, he lacks the organizational strength of his opponents who have been heavily campaigning in ST states for the past few weeks - namely Sanders and Bloomberg. Despite  the latter’s relative weakened position after the last two debates, the amount of money Bloomberg has thrown in should not be underestimated and polling has shown that he still maintains reasonably high support which should worry Biden.

He's counting on three days of free media. Which TBH, isn't a bad expectation. There's also the fact that Biden is/was bankrupt, if he failed to win SC he would be dropping out on Tuesday night. An investment in SC is something Biden hopes will pay off as donors and the grassroots give him greater attention again.

I know, but at this point it likely won’t be enough to fix his campaign’s real disadvantages.

[2016]

Biden's entire Campaign now hinges on African-American Turnout:

South Carolina has the biggest followed by Alabama BUT

SC' 16: 61 %
AL '16: 54 %
AR '16: 27 %
VA '16: 26 %
NC' 16: 32 %
TN' 16: 32 %

It's tough when your entire strategy is AA. Clinton even beat Sanders very badly among White Voters in these States. Biden has to hope that that White Vote in AR, VA, NC, TN is really muddled to pull off Wins beyond SC & AL.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/27/biden-super-pac-118000

A super PAC backing Joe Biden is making a “low six-figure” digital ad buy ahead of Super Tuesday, a small sum spread across 14 states just as Biden tries to reset his campaign with a win in the South Carolina primary.

The group, Unite the Country, spent more than $4.5 million in Iowa but has spent just $1.3 million in other places so far, according to Advertising Analytics, as Biden struggled in the earliest states and Bernie Sanders gained momentum in the Democratic primary. Biden’s campaign had to take a thrifty approach to Super Tuesday, preparing its own six-figure ad campaign only this week.
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Schale said the super PAC is focusing heavily on African American turnout and persuasion in five Super Tuesday states: North Carolina, Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama and Tennessee.

[2016]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/27/biden-super-pac-118000

A super PAC backing Joe Biden is making a “low six-figure” digital ad buy ahead of Super Tuesday, a small sum spread across 14 states just as Biden tries to reset his campaign with a win in the South Carolina primary.

The group, Unite the Country, spent more than $4.5 million in Iowa but has spent just $1.3 million in other places so far, according to Advertising Analytics, as Biden struggled in the earliest states and Bernie Sanders gained momentum in the Democratic primary. Biden’s campaign had to take a thrifty approach to Super Tuesday, preparing its own six-figure ad campaign only this week.
.
.
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Schale said the super PAC is focusing heavily on African American turnout and persuasion in five Super Tuesday states: North Carolina, Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama and Tennessee.

Steve Schale, LOL
Remember, that's the guy who told us Gillum would be Governor in FL and Nelson would still be Senator. Schale is such a crocket.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

On politico, it says that Biden cant keep up with Bernie's spending and nearly doesnt have the ad buys available to compete. We havent seen any Buttigieg ads either. After SC, it looks like it's over for them, whom have 6M apiece compared to 15 M for Bernie

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So here is what I don't fully understand:
Bernie barely won on his home turf of NH and it helped him significantly.
So if Biden barely wins in SC why does that hurt him?
Could someone clarify this for me? Thanks in advance!

[Adam Griffin]

So here is what I don't fully understand:
Bernie barely won on his home turf of NH and it helped him significantly.
So if Biden barely wins in SC why does that hurt him?
Could someone clarify this for me? Thanks in advance!

1) It's not Biden's home turf
2) Expectations until his big collapse were that he'd win by 20-30 points, and even now, polls are pointing somewhat back in that direction
3) He needs to positively run up the score in the South to have a shot; a delegate advantage of 3-to-1 at minimum if he wants to win the most delegates nationally

[NOVA Green]

It's too late for money to save Biden on Super Tuesday.  The only thing that can rescue Biden is for a win that's so strong that it immediately labels him as the clear, obvious alternative to Sanders.  That way everyone who's still undecided and hasn't voted, or people who were hesitant on Joe and supporting Bloomberg/Buttigieg/Klobuchar as an alternative, will swing back to his camp and give him enough votes to be viable in California, compete in Texas, and win Virginia.

A result like
Biden 45%
Steyer 18%
Sanders 16%
Buttigieg 9%
Gabbard 5%
Klobuchar 4%

would immediately say to everyone "Biden is the one."  If you are a Buttigieg or Klobuchar or Bloomberg supporter, that's wonderful, but if you care about stopping Sanders it's time to jump on the Biden train.

Even better would be a result like
Biden 45%
Sanders 15%
everyone else non-viable

or Sanders non-viable.  A 3-1 victory would give Joe a 30-delegate MOV and put him ahead of Sanders in the delegate count.  Certainly seeing Joe Biden in first place would have a huge effect on people.

I'm pessimistic though.  Biden still doesn't have any sort of ground game and he's underperformed thus far.

General---

SC results are extremely unlikely to influence ST results in CA & TX, where so many EV votes have already been packed and same day voters aren't really the types of folks that would heavily back Biden....

It might be enough, to effect marginal wins in NC/VA on same day votes, but min delegate gains in relatively large States....

Within NE--- appears that Bernie will clean house in VT, and quite possibly ME and basically chop some votes delegates with Warren in MA.

Biden still has some "Buckles in the Bible Belt" in TN, AR, & AL....

Only the latter is looking good for him with possible marginal wins in TN & AR...

TX--- a virtual tie between Bernie & Joe, but gonna depend upon turnout and CDs for delegates, and honestly I suspect nobody has a real handle on WTF is gonna happen on ST, but personally I would lean towards Bernie on this one...

OK--- Doesn't look like the Bernie/HRC State of '16...  Biden will win narrowly if not Bloomberg.

CO--- Bernie landslide....

UT--- Looks like decent Bernie win but a bunch of other folks grabbing some scraps off the table....

[Sir Mohamed]

So here is what I don't fully understand:
Bernie barely won on his home turf of NH and it helped him significantly.
So if Biden barely wins in SC why does that hurt him?
Could someone clarify this for me? Thanks in advance!

1) It's not Biden's home turf
2) Expectations until his big collapse were that he'd win by 20-30 points, and even now, polls are pointing somewhat back in that direction
3) He needs to positively run up the score in the South to have a shot; a delegate advantage of 3-to-1 at minimum if he wants to win the most delegates nationally

Agree. He not just needs to win the South by a substancial margin and get Bloomberg out of the contest soon, he also needs to take winnable states elsewhere like NY, OH, MD, CT and IL, to name a few. Winning TX would also help him and block Bloomberg's ambitions. And keep the margin down in CA, which seems to be in safe Sanders territory right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is not gonna win IL, I have friends there and they support Bernie

[Panhandle Progressive]

Meet the Press - First Read

DATA DOWNLOAD:  And the number of the day is … 74 percent.

Seventy-four percent.

That’s the share of South Democratic primary voters in 2016 who said they wanted to a candidate to continue Barack Obama’s policies, according to the exit poll from that contest four years ago.

Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders by more than 60 points among these voters, 81 percent to 19 percent.

By contrast, 16 percent said they wanted a candidate who held more liberal policies than Obama’s, and Sanders won those voters, 55 percent to 45 percent – one of the few demographic groups Sanders carried in that 2016 contest.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden is not gonna win IL, I have friends there and they support Bernie

"Trump is not gonna win OH in November, I have friends there and they all support the Dem nominee"

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1232738409262800896
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1232746351819137024
Good news for Bernie is that Biden (and everyone else but Bloomy) is out of their money.

South Carolina could be a game changer in the financial sense if not politically.

Biden wins going away and the media narrative is he has a real shot: money flows in
Biden wins by small margin and media narrative is his candidacy has nowhere to go: broke as a joke

Sure. What I am saying is that Biden would way more dangerous (for Bernie), if he had more money. If he had, I'd say it were a Toss-up-to-lean Bernie. As it looks rn, it is Lean-to-likely Bernie IMO.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1233432102072471552

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clyburn going on TV talking about Biden and Biden resurgence in the polls are gonna go back to the Ukraine scandal. Fox news is ready to dig up dirt again on Biden Ukraine story. If Biden is nominated

[VBM]

After the DNC steals the nomination from Bernie and hands it to Biden, I can’t wait for Biden to tell all the Bernie protestors to vote for someone else.

[AtorBoltox]

Biden retracts his lie about being arrested in south africa
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/28/biden-south-africa-arrest-118134

[Panhandle Progressive]

After the DNC steals the nomination from Bernie and hands it to Biden, I can’t wait for Biden to tell all the Bernie protestors to vote for someone else.

It can only be 'stolen' if a candidate doesn't win the nomination outright. Bernie and all candidates agreed to these rules. They also agreed to Superdelegates having their say at a contested convention. It's not surprising that Supers believe Bernie would be the next McGovern, Mondale or Dukakis rather than the next B. Clinton or Obama in a general election. This is also exactly why Supers exist even in the first place. Btw, your first post ever on the forum and you begin here with "after the DNC steals", pretty shameful.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie is favored for the nomination,  so no one is gonna steal anything away from him. This is what happens when you run a Veep that have problems defending himself or you for that matter, 4 yrs later after administration ended.  Biden isnt H Bush or Nixon, he didnt do anything major during the 4 yr gap. Just campaigning for Dems isnt enough. He could of spoke about the troops and Foreign policy and North Korea and Iran, like Kerry did. But, Biden chosed not to

[Panhandle Progressive]

Bernie is favored for the nomination

Not if he doesn't win outright. It's a brand new ballgame if he can't get himself across the 1,991 line.

[VBM]

After the DNC steals the nomination from Bernie and hands it to Biden, I can’t wait for Biden to tell all the Bernie protestors to vote for someone else.

It can only be 'stolen' if a candidate doesn't win the nomination outright. Bernie and all candidates agreed to these rules. They also agreed to Superdelegates having their say at a contested convention. It's not surprising that Supers believe Bernie would be the next McGovern, Mondale or Dukakis rather than the next B. Clinton or Obama in a general election. This is also exactly why Supers exist even in the first place. Btw, your first post ever on the forum and you begin here with "after the DNC steals", pretty shameful.

Lmao have fun trying to convince other Bernie supporters that it wasn’t stolen. Bernie tried to get rid of SDs, but the DNC wanted to keep them, so he was FORCED to accept them only voting on the 2nd ballot. Stop spreading these vile, disgusting, and disingenuous lies about Bernie.

“The best way to win the election is by spitting in the face of 40% of our voters!” Genius.

[Panhandle Progressive]

After the DNC steals the nomination from Bernie and hands it to Biden, I can’t wait for Biden to tell all the Bernie protestors to vote for someone else.

It can only be 'stolen' if a candidate doesn't win the nomination outright. Bernie and all candidates agreed to these rules. They also agreed to Superdelegates having their say at a contested convention. It's not surprising that Supers believe Bernie would be the next McGovern, Mondale or Dukakis rather than the next B. Clinton or Obama in a general election. This is also exactly why Supers exist even in the first place. Btw, your first post ever on the forum and you begin here with "after the DNC steals", pretty shameful.

Lmao have fun trying to convince other Bernie supporters that it wasn’t stolen. Bernie tried to get rid of SDs, but the DNC wanted to keep them, so he was FORCED to accept them only voting on the 2nd ballot. Stop spreading these vile, disgusting, and disingenuous lies about Bernie.

“The best way to win the election is by spitting in the face of 40% of our voters!” Genius.

How about this for proof?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/democratic-superdelegates.html

"overwhelming opposition to handing Mr. Sanders the nomination if he fell short of a majority of delegates."

[Technocracy Timmy]

https://twitter.com/kcwhipple/status/1233910449546186752?s=20

[Beet]

I am endorsing Joe Biden. Ridin' with Biden.