Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[NOVA Green]

As I posited some 3-4 Months ago, polls of Iowa and New Hampshire at that time were not reflective of the Democratic Party base in two States with some of the highest % of College Students in the Country...

Although College Students are just one element of the 2020 Democratic Coalition, by dint of the dramatic shift of Partisan Political affiliation in the 18-35 Year old range, this will likely represent a significant component of the IA and NH 2020 DEM Primary / Caucus electorate.

Although Biden is still an extremely strong DEM Primary Candidate (And quite frankly well liked and respected among the overwhelming majority of the DEM base), it is clear that even if it comes down to a Bernie vs Biden showdown in the late stages of the DEM Primary, that without the Super Delegates this may well come down to a contested convention on the first vote....

It would be hard for me to imagine that either Biden nor Sanders base support will collapse, and although we still have Warren and Mayor Pete that could be contenders, Biden will likely be in the "Chess Endgame" of the DEM Primaries....

Bloomberg and Steyer by virtue of their unlimited bank accounts might make some dents, but it is hard to envision a scenario where either of these Billionaires win the DEM nomination, regardless of how much money from their personal fortunes they throw into the race....

Interestingly enough distribution of Bloomberg & Steyer delegates could easily be relatively chopped up among the various contenders after they flame out after Super Tuesday, but still rack up some delegates in other states, since they are essentially "self financing" their Presidential Election bids....

It is looking extremely likely that Biden will place at best 3rd in IA and NH....

I suspect he might do a bit better in NV and maybe hit 2nd....

Meanwhile he is under threat in SC "the Biden Firewall" from Steyer....

Biden needs a game changer to make this a quick three and out game early on to avoid, what from my perspective looks increasingly like a potentially contested convention scenario....

[win win]

He didn't gaffe.

[James Monroe]

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1221135646107955200

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna be a foot note in history is he loses IA and NH and NV, I dont see him doing well in SC if he loses this badly in both states

[Famous Mortimer]

Biden is gonna be a foot note in history is he loses IA and NH and NV, I dont see him doing well in SC if he loses this badly in both states

He'll lose both and still win SC by 20%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We dont have any polls from SC and Bernie doesnt have to win SC he has to win FL, TX or VA on Super Tuesday

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1221206671575396352

The Senate will be writing and proposing policy not some random on Biden's campaign.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1221206671575396352

In 1998, a plan to embrace the grand bargain came to fruition.  In secret negotiations between House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Rep Bill Archer, R-Texas, and President Bill Clinton, a proposal was hatched to reduce Social Security benefits and embrace partial privatization in exchange for Gingrich to drop his demand for new tax cuts.  That plan came perilously close to being implemented, but was blown up by Gingrich's drive to impeach Clinton rather than cut a deal.

Wow.  Thinking about it now, Clinton's impeachment was probably the best thing that could have happened for this country at the time.

If Biden wins this year and lays a finger on Social Security as president, he can forget about 2024.  Progressives are tired of being cucked by faux leftists who take our votes for granted just so that they can enact Republican policies in nicer packaging.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Reposting these from what others posted on AAD since there are more Biden stans here:

Biden lies to black and Latino voters about proposing a Social Security spending freeze:
https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1220819709198766080?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...
Now the typical Biden supporter, especially older black supporters in the South, probably relies on Social Security as their primary source of income, right?

Weeeeeellllll...



Bernie needs to take this and run with it before South Carolina and Super Tuesday.  Time for the gloves to come off.

[GeneralMacArthur]

You guys have been caught lying like four different times about Biden wanting to "gut" social security and finally settled on some gotcha of him offering a spending freeze 25 years ago as a compromise to prevent Republicans from cutting it.

It's really disgusting that it seems to be working.  You act like one out of context quote validating one half-truth means all your previous lies were justified.

Biden has.  On his website.  That he wants to expand social security.  But what really matters is a compromise proposal he made decades ago in an entirely different debate and entirely different context.  That one video proves that, today in 2020, he wants to gut social security, he wants to destroy it, he hates seniors and black people!

This from the campaign that promised to run a positive campaign.  And you wonder why he has no friends.

The sick irony here is that Biden's proposal to "freeze" was actually an attempt to rescue social security.  Meanwhile, Sanders was in Congress in 1995 and didn't do a damn thing.  He was probably sleeping on the back-bench.  He didn't even try to sponsor a single bill in the entire 104th congress (95-96).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Poor Biden, he used up all his endorsements and now he doesnt have any left. Now, he has to win on his own behalf and he is losing in the polls. Now, they are trying to get poor Harris to endorse Biden and she isnt budging

[Shadows]

Ofcourse Gen is Right. Biden attempting to Freeze Social Security is a means to save Social Security. Democrats should run of it. They should also focus on making Medicare into a block grants which will freeze per person spending.

That is the only way to save Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid & will also help to cut down the deficit. That is what Democrats should run on in 2020. That is what their record should be about. Both Ted Cruz & Joe Biden should campaign about freezing spending on Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Ofcourse Gen is Right. Biden attempting to Freeze Social Security is a means to save Social Security. Democrats should run of it. They should also focus on making Medicare into a block grants which will freeze per person spending.

That is the only way to save Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid & will also help to cut down the deficit. That is what Democrats should run on in 2020. That is what their record should be about. Both Ted Cruz & Joe Biden should campaign about freezing spending on Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid.

This isn't 1995, and Republicans aren't using the peak of their power to try to slash social security.  If it was, a rescue proposal to temporarily freeze social security would make sense.

Are you really incapable of understanding this or are you just an echo bot for Sanders 4 President talking points?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The real story is Hunter Biden and how much damage he has caused Biden. Hunter Biden has been accused of back child support payments. Biden was always looked up to by most Dems, but the problem is his son

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1221560807441432576

curb_theme.mp3

[President Johnson]

If all the Bernie camp is coming up with are unsubstantiated claims from random Twitter guys of Biden wanting to cut Social Security during the Obama years (when he's on record to oppose Paul Ryan) and his call 25 years ago to freeze spending to keep it solvent and avoid a shutdown, then it's laughable.

We could also remind folks that Saint Bernard time and time again voted against gun control measures during these years and opposed the Brady Bill, which Joe Biden wrote and helped to get passed. It was one of the most significant legislative actions in recent years. How many meaningful bills has Bernie authored that got enacted into law?

[GeneralMacArthur]

If all the Bernie camp is coming up with are unsubstantiated claims of Biden wanting to cut Social Security during the Obama years (when he's on record to oppose Paul Ryan) and his call 25 years ago to freeze spending to keep it solvent and avoid a shutdown, then it's laughable.

We could also remind folks that Saint Bernard time and time again voted against gun control measures during these years and opposed the Brady Bill, which Joe Biden wrote and helped to get passed. It was one of the most significant legislative actions in recent years. How many meaningful bills has Bernie authored that got enacted into law?

It's not a laughing matter.  The lie is working, people are believing it, and it's helping him go up in Iowa.  This guy is going to lie his way to the nomination if nobody does anything to stop him.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

If all the Bernie camp is coming up with are unsubstantiated claims from random Twitter guys of Biden wanting to cut Social Security during the Obama years (when he's on record to oppose Paul Ryan) and his call 25 years ago to freeze spending to keep it solvent and avoid a shutdown, then it's laughable.

We could also remind folks that Saint Bernard time and time again voted against gun control measures during these years and opposed the Brady Bill, which Joe Biden wrote and helped to get passed. It was one of the most significant legislative actions in recent years. How many meaningful bills has Bernie authored that got enacted into law?

Incidentally, I am pro-gun, so I wouldn't care if you guys used that line of attack.   Most Bernie supporters don't have gun control as their top issue but it might make him more electable in the general!

[Ebsy]

People believe it because it is true and supported by copious evidence, which you refused to consider. Btw, Ryan Grim is not a "random twitter guy".

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Biden is gonna be a foot note in history is he loses IA and NH and NV, I dont see him doing well in SC if he loses this badly in both states

Nope. He would need to get creamed in IA and NH for that to happen, which he won't. Pete and Sanders will not magically attract the African American vote if they do well in NH and IA. They are not Obama.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The real story is Hunter Biden and how much damage he has caused Biden. Hunter Biden has been accused of back child support payments. Biden was always looked up to by most Dems, but the problem is his son

Who f***ing cares about his son? Other than Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna be a foot note in history is he loses IA and NH and NV, I dont see him doing well in SC if he loses this badly in both states

Nope. He would need to get creamed in IA and NH for that to happen, which he won't. Pete and Sanders will not magically attract the African American vote if they do well in NH and IA. They are not Obama.

The polls keep changing as the impeachment trial drags on, the 11th he witness calling isnt gonna work. Voters are making up their minds about the Democratic process, but all I see is Bloomberg ads, no Warren or Bernie ads and Bernie keeps talking about how much money he has

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The real story is Hunter Biden and how much damage he has caused Biden. Hunter Biden has been accused of back child support payments. Biden was always looked up to by most Dems, but the problem is his son

Who f***ing cares about his son? Other than Republicans.

Unfortunately, there have been just a few polls who asks about it (I wounder why )

Here you have one from Monmouth (Oct. 2, 2019):

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_100219/

The Monmouth poll also finds that 43% of registered voters believe Trump’s claim that Biden probably did pressure Ukrainian officials to keep them from investigating his son’s business interests there. This compares to 37% who say that Biden probably did not do this and 20% who are unsure.  Among self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, 67% say Biden probably did this and 15% say he did not, with 17% being unsure. Among self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, 21% say Biden probably did this and 60% say he did not, with 18% being unsure. Among true independents, 39% say Biden probably did this and 27% say he did not, with 34% being unsure.

“The fact that 4-in-10 independents are inclined to believe what they have heard from Trump is a warning sign for the Biden campaign.  How the candidate fights back against this charge will be crucial to his argument of electability,” said Murray.

It is definitely no nothing.

[Orwell]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/28/james-biden-lobbyist-virgin-islands-099318

Another piece why I support Bloomberg over Biden

[SInNYC]

Everybody has scandals, and one will be made for you if you dont have one. The issue is how you address it and whether you are likable enough for people to accept it.

Hillary had her hobnobbing with Wall Street (among others) and failed on both counts. Obama had Jeremiah Wright, but he succeeded on both counts. Kerry and Dukakis had made up scandals (Swiftboat, Willie Horton), and neither really addressed it. Bill Clinton had zipper problems but he was likable (though I suspect most voters didnt really buy his attempts to address them). I guess Gore was the exception since I dont recall a scandal then. For Biden, he is likable but we will see after the impeachment "trial" whether or not he addresses it.

This pattern doesn't hold if you have god on your side, as R voters think they do in recent years.