Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[America Needs R'hllor]

Ok, looks like this will be part of the final agreement:
- Gantz gives up on the Health demand, Litzman will stay on.
- Edlestein will not return to the Speaker's seat, but Likud will choose his replacement- the leading candidates rn are Steinitz and Levin. If it's Levin it'll be a disgusting development- this guy is an extreme authoritarian who challenged the SC to "send in their forces" to enforce their verdict, very dangerous. KL should insist on Steinitz.

[Hnv1]

Ok, looks like this will be part of the final agreement:
- Gantz gives up on the Health demand, Litzman will stay on.
- Edlestein will not return to the Speaker's seat, but Likud will choose his replacement- the leading candidates rn are Steinitz and Levin. If it's Levin it'll be a disgusting development- this guy is an extreme authoritarian who challenged the SC to "send in their forces" to enforce their verdict, very dangerous. KL should insist on Steinitz.

I'll put my money on Steinitz\Hanegbi

[America Needs R'hllor]

So this how it's looking likely to be (will probably be some changes):
Prime Minister- Netanyahu
Defense Minister- Gantz
Deputy Defense Minister- Eitan Ginzburg from Hosen, a former Mayor and a gay man
Foreign Minister- Ashkenazi (will get Defence when [lol] Gantz becomes PM)
Agriculture Minister- Amir Peretz
Deputy Agriculture Minister- Alon from Hosen, a kibbutznik and former head of a Regional Council
Economy Minister- Michael Biton from Hosen, former Mayor of periphery city Yerucham
Science and Technology Minister- Yizhar Shai from Hosen, entrepenuer
Justice Minister- possibly Nissankorn, still not final
Welfare Minister- Merav Cohen from Hosen, a Jerusalem liberal politician
Deputy Welfare Minister- Itzik Shmuli (I find this hilarious)
Immigration and Assimilation Minister- Pnina Tamano Shata
Tourism Minister- Hili Trooper from Hosen, educator (if I had to guess, if he gets Justice Nissankorn will get Economy and they shift around a bit)
Diaspora Minister- Hauser
Communications Minister- Orit Farkash Hacohen from Hosen, a former chairwoman of the Electricity Authority
Minister of Culture- Assaf Zamir from Hosen, a Tel Aviv politician
Social Equality Minister- Miki Haimovich from Hosen, journalist
Deputy Minister of Social Equality- Omer Yaneklovich from Hosen, Haredi woman
Chair of the important Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee- Hendel
Chair of the Welfare Committee- Orly Levy (lol)
Deputy Speaker of Knesset- Ram Shefa from Hosen, former student leader

[bigic]

So seems like the sheer number of ministries is the price of Gantz and his party joining a Netanyahu government...

Where are ministers from Likud and other right-wing parties?

[America Needs R'hllor]

So seems like the sheer number of ministries is the price of Gantz and his party joining a Netanyahu government...

Where are ministers from Likud and other right-wing parties?

Oh, there will be a lot more ministers from the right. For example, Internal Security (likely to go to Miri Regev), Finance (likely Katz), Health (Litzman), Finance Committee (Gafni), Home (Deri), Religious Affairs (Shas), Periphery Development (possibly Shas), Construction (I guess Likud), Education (probably Yamina), and others. It'll be a bloated government.

[DavidB.]

All in all, this seems nearly ideal. Good that annexation probably isn't happening and the door on the 2SS isn't being closed. Sad to see Ohana go, though, and I would have liked to see fewer Hosen ministers, but it's a small price to pay. Hope the fight against the scourge of dikastocracy will still continue. In a true democracy, power needs to be placed firmly in the hands of the parliament; this power should not be watered down by unelected judges with a different agenda. From that point of view, Levin as speaker would at least be good symbolically.

[jaymichaud]

B&W is officially dissolved, Gantz gets to keep the name.

If Labor joins this government and the party becomes history, what’s the odds of Lapid moving left on some issues and Yesh Atid becoming the party of the center-left? Just to fill the gap in the market?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Pathetic

[Hnv1]

So seems like the sheer number of ministries is the price of Gantz and his party joining a Netanyahu government...

Where are ministers from Likud and other right-wing parties?

That’s the wrong direction you’re looking at. To avoid offending to many of the partners Bibi must allocate a lot of ministries, but he also agreed to equal power in government which means B&W are forced to have as many ministers

[Hnv1]

B&W is officially dissolved, Gantz gets to keep the name.

If Labor joins this government and the party becomes history, what’s the odds of Lapid moving left on some issues and Yesh Atid becoming the party of the center-left? Just to fill the gap in the market?

Doubt it. I assume Meretz will try occupying this space somehow

[Oryxslayer]

Okay, so if I am doing the math right (and I may not, its a bit up in the air right now who is actually in) this bloated govt could have a functioning majority without UTJ or Shas. Since Justice is being handed over to a B&W/Hosen guy, Bibi very well could be setting up to gaslight the country in regards to the Haredim. Say Deri and Litzman end up eventually in court, and Bibi is able to twist the law so that he dodges his proceedings somehow beforehand. The coalition could theoretically kick the Haredim out of Govt for their corrupt actions, and still work fine. This would: reorient the corruption discussion to how Likud is defending the rule of law, change Likud's brand for the next election towards Secularism which has overwhelming public support, draw Hosen and Likud closer together for an eventual merger in a few years, and potentially explain why Gantz was fine signing on to such a deal. Hell, Lieberman might just be invited in again at that point, further solidifying the Secular side of the govt, and giving them more votes.

[Hnv1]

Okay, so if I am doing the math right (and I may not, its a bit up in the air right now who is actually in) this bloated govt could have a functioning majority without UTJ or Shas. Since Justice is being handed over to a B&W/Hosen guy, Bibi very well could be setting up to gaslight the country in regards to the Haredim. Say Deri and Litzman end up eventually in court, and Bibi is able to twist the law so that he dodges his proceedings somehow beforehand. The coalition could theoretically kick the Haredim out of Govt for their corrupt actions, and still work fine. This would: reorient the corruption discussion to how Likud is defending the rule of law, change Likud's brand for the next election towards Secularism which has overwhelming public support, draw Hosen and Likud closer together for an eventual merger in a few years, and potentially explain why Gantz was fine signing on to such a deal. Hell, Lieberman might just be invited in again at that point, further solidifying the Secular side of the govt, and giving them more votes.

Rule number one of Israeli politics: keep your friends close, keep your enemies closer, keep the Haredi glued to you.

Bibi is not going to severe the tie that grants him his biggest leverage.

Yamina or parts off might go the opposition due to too many bloated egos with too little ministries and absolutely nothing to threaten Bibi with.

[The Mikado]

Is Amir Peretz really going to do in the Israeli Labor Party so he can spend a year as Agriculture Minister? Really?

There's no way Israeli Labor hits the threshold again if people think it's likely to coalesce with Likud. What's the point?

[Hnv1]

Is Amir Peretz really going to do in the Israeli Labor Party so he can spend a year as Agriculture Minister? Really?

There's no way Israeli Labor hits the threshold again if people think it's likely to coalesce with Likud. What's the point?

He becomes president. No one cares about the Labour franchise anymore outside of Beit Berl.

[jaymichaud]

Is Amir Peretz really going to do in the Israeli Labor Party so he can spend a year as Agriculture Minister? Really?

There's no way Israeli Labor hits the threshold again if people think it's likely to coalesce with Likud. What's the point?

He becomes president. No one cares about the Labour franchise anymore outside of Beit Berl.

Jeez, what percentage of the Knesset actually gives a sh*t about anyone but themselves? Have they forgotten who they work for?

[VPH]

Why is Telem remaining with Yesh Atid? I thought they leaned more right.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Why is Telem remaining with Yesh Atid? I thought they leaned more right.

The leader, Bogie Yaalon, has a bad personal history with Netanyahu. He hates him.

[brucejoel99]

Gantz is an absolute f**kwad.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Yamina or parts off might go the opposition due to too many bloated egos with too little ministries and absolutely nothing to threaten Bibi with.

This would be nice to see. The Haredi parties are awful but at least they represent distinct cultural minorities with genuine material interests to advance. Yamina is the party of unleaded racism and illiberalism for its own sake.

[DavidB.]

This would be nice to see. The Haredi parties are awful but at least they represent distinct cultural minorities with genuine material interests to advance. Yamina is the party of unleaded racism and illiberalism for its own sake.

Yamina broadly represents the ideology of religious Zionism (see Rav Kook) and the national religious sector within Israeli society, who, while more integrated than the Haredim, are just as much a "distinct cultural minority with genuine material interests" as the Haredim. You may well dislike their politics more than the Haredim's politics and want them to be out of government because of that, which I suppose is a legitimate political opinion - but it's not as if the national religious are suddenly not a group anymore, even if some of them vote for Likud.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I think the main difference between the Haredim and the Natonal Religious population is their status, or at least how it's viewed. The haredim get a lot of hate and are very much economically poor compared to the rest of the population. Meanwhile, the national religious folks are often considered "the new elite"- they reached a lot of leadership positions, in the army you often see national religious officers commanding simple soldiers from poor periphery areas, etc. And there's the matter of attitude- while the haredi leaders make a lot of annoying statements, it's the national religious leaders who act like they're better than the secular Israelis when it comes to values and "depth" (in the September election Yamina released an ad that basically derided secular values and advanced the narrative of the national religious as a "full cart" of values compared to the secular "empty card, and it's not the first time at all). So while, yes, the national religious are a distinct population, I think they just need less help than the haredim.

[Zinneke]

Is the National Union really Religious Zionist?

[brucejoel99]

Is the National Union really Religious Zionist?

Yes.

[Walmart_shopper]

This would be nice to see. The Haredi parties are awful but at least they represent distinct cultural minorities with genuine material interests to advance. Yamina is the party of unleaded racism and illiberalism for its own sake.

Yamina broadly represents the ideology of religious Zionism (see Rav Kook) and the national religious sector within Israeli society, who, while more integrated than the Haredim, are just as much a "distinct cultural minority with genuine material interests" as the Haredim. You may well dislike their politics more than the Haredim's politics and want them to be out of government because of that, which I suppose is a legitimate political opinion - but it's not as if the national religious are suddenly not a group anymore, even if some of them vote for Likud.

The "material interests" of the national religious are Arabs homes and a subversive missionary role in society through key institutions like the IDF.

Neither are legitimate interests. At least the Haredim mainly just want to eat and afford an apartment.

[Walmart_shopper]

I think the main difference between the Haredim and the Natonal Religious population is their status, or at least how it's viewed. The haredim get a lot of hate and are very much economically poor compared to the rest of the population. Meanwhile, the national religious folks are often considered "the new elite"- they reached a lot of leadership positions, in the army you often see national religious officers commanding simple soldiers from poor periphery areas, etc. And there's the matter of attitude- while the haredi leaders make a lot of annoying statements, it's the national religious leaders who act like they're better than the secular Israelis when it comes to values and "depth" (in the September election Yamina released an ad that basically derided secular values and advanced the narrative of the national religious as a "full cart" of values compared to the secular "empty card, and it's not the first time at all). So while, yes, the national religious are a distinct population, I think they just need less help than the haredim.

It reminds me of that iconic photo of the soldier planting an Israeli flag during the Independence War. Likud this year put a kippah on the head of the guy planting the flag in an ad geared towards religious voters. The problem? He didn't actually wear a kippah. His daughter blasted the revisionism and said, "Perhaps [the religious side] feels a bit left out of the formation of the state. Now that we’ve finished other annexations, maybe we’re annexing parts of history too.”

Religious Zionism, at least the ideology as distinct from the modern Orthodox Jews who often but not always hold that ideology, has nothing to do with actual Zionism, or at least the Zionism of 1948. It is blood-and-soil nationalism propped up by disgraceful and racist religious messianism. Nobody in the world has damaged the Zionist project like the settlement-obsessed national religious movement. It is a cult like fraud and certainly should have no place in any serious government.