Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

The fantastical tone of the right (and self-immolating left) is absolutely amazing to me. Likud insists that they will pick off left wing defectors to get a majority. But all the likely suspects have returned serve and rejected the idea. Other right wing leaders insist that Netanyahu will somehow form a government. How? "He just will." Gideon Levy in Haaretz today announced "the majority has spoken!" Indeed it has, against Netanyahu and his atavistic right wing bloc. Even otherwise sober writers and politicians are already handing the government over to Bibi for four more years. Liberman says he won't sit with Bibi and will try to avoid a fourth campaign. But unless he is ready to sit with an ascendent Joint List, he will he sending us back to pols in September.

Math is math. Bibi's "win" was solid, but mostly cosmetic. He has pinned his future to a religious right bloc even at the risk of anathemizing the opposition. That bloc does not have 61 seats and in time it will seem clear enough that Bibi once again cannot form a functioning government. The euphoris on the right equals how the left felt in September. Surely, we thought, Gantz will find a way to make 57 seats into a majority. He'll peel off Likud MKs or coax the Joint List into a minority government. But 57 is and was not 61. And neither, of course, is 59.

[Hnv1]

I'll wait with the verdict. Double envelopes and surpluses might lead to 61 in the end

[EastAnglianLefty]

The fantastical tone of the right (and self-immolating left) is absolutely amazing to me. Likud insists that they will pick off left wing defectors to get a majority. But all the likely suspects have returned serve and rejected the idea. Other right wing leaders insist that Netanyahu will somehow form a government. How? "He just will." Gideon Levy in Haaretz today announced "the majority has spoken!" Indeed it has, against Netanyahu and his atavistic right wing bloc. Even otherwise sober writers and politicians are already handing the government over to Bibi for four more years. Liberman says he won't sit with Bibi and will try to avoid a fourth campaign. But unless he is ready to sit with an ascendent Joint List, he will he sending us back to pols in September.

Math is math. Bibi's "win" was solid, but mostly cosmetic. He has pinned his future to a religious right bloc even at the risk of anathemizing the opposition. That bloc does not have 61 seats and in time it will seem clear enough that Bibi once again cannot form a functioning government. The euphoris on the right equals how the left felt in September. Surely, we thought, Gantz will find a way to make 57 seats into a majority. He'll peel off Likud MKs or coax the Joint List into a minority government. But 57 is and was not 61. And neither, of course, is 59.

One issue here is what is meant by 'majority'. There's still an effective cordon sanitaire against the JL, even if it's cracking. If you read 'majority' as 'majority of the Jewish electorate' such sentiments make a lot more sense, even if they don't work mathematically.

[Oryxslayer]

The fantastical tone of the right (and self-immolating left) is absolutely amazing to me. Likud insists that they will pick off left wing defectors to get a majority. But all the likely suspects have returned serve and rejected the idea. Other right wing leaders insist that Netanyahu will somehow form a government. How? "He just will." Gideon Levy in Haaretz today announced "the majority has spoken!" Indeed it has, against Netanyahu and his atavistic right wing bloc. Even otherwise sober writers and politicians are already handing the government over to Bibi for four more years. Liberman says he won't sit with Bibi and will try to avoid a fourth campaign. But unless he is ready to sit with an ascendent Joint List, he will he sending us back to pols in September.

Math is math. Bibi's "win" was solid, but mostly cosmetic. He has pinned his future to a religious right bloc even at the risk of anathemizing the opposition. That bloc does not have 61 seats and in time it will seem clear enough that Bibi once again cannot form a functioning government. The euphoris on the right equals how the left felt in September. Surely, we thought, Gantz will find a way to make 57 seats into a majority. He'll peel off Likud MKs or coax the Joint List into a minority government. But 57 is and was not 61. And neither, of course, is 59.

One issue here is what is meant by 'majority'. There's still an effective cordon sanitaire against the JL, even if it's cracking. If you read 'majority' as 'majority of the Jewish electorate' such sentiments make a lot more sense, even if they don't work mathematically.

Well by that definition Bibi had a majority since last April. However, that wasn't the media's story then. It's probably because Bibi had 60 votes in the first count, and the first voice is what gets repeated these days, not the most accurate. I mean...look at Iowa. Look at Blyth Valley.

[Velasco]

Lieberman is a secuar rightwinger and a racist who believes Arabs and Palestinians are the enemy. The fact that he's at odds with Bibi doesn't mean he will be for a real political change. Accepting the participation of the Joint List would entail a real democratic revolution and I get the impression most of Jewish Israelis are not for democracy, far from that.

On a side note, out of gloomy forecasts for democracy in the Middle East, I am curious to know the results of the coronavirus ballot box. The votes will be counted tomorrow, right? Shas landslide, perhaps?

[CumbrianLefty]

The fantastical tone of the right (and self-immolating left) is absolutely amazing to me. Likud insists that they will pick off left wing defectors to get a majority. But all the likely suspects have returned serve and rejected the idea. Other right wing leaders insist that Netanyahu will somehow form a government. How? "He just will." Gideon Levy in Haaretz today announced "the majority has spoken!" Indeed it has, against Netanyahu and his atavistic right wing bloc. Even otherwise sober writers and politicians are already handing the government over to Bibi for four more years. Liberman says he won't sit with Bibi and will try to avoid a fourth campaign. But unless he is ready to sit with an ascendent Joint List, he will he sending us back to pols in September.

Math is math. Bibi's "win" was solid, but mostly cosmetic. He has pinned his future to a religious right bloc even at the risk of anathemizing the opposition. That bloc does not have 61 seats and in time it will seem clear enough that Bibi once again cannot form a functioning government. The euphoris on the right equals how the left felt in September. Surely, we thought, Gantz will find a way to make 57 seats into a majority. He'll peel off Likud MKs or coax the Joint List into a minority government. But 57 is and was not 61. And neither, of course, is 59.

One issue here is what is meant by 'majority'. There's still an effective cordon sanitaire against the JL, even if it's cracking. If you read 'majority' as 'majority of the Jewish electorate' such sentiments make a lot more sense, even if they don't work mathematically.

Well by that definition Bibi had a majority since last April. However, that wasn't the media's story then. It's probably because Bibi had 60 votes in the first count, and the first voice is what gets repeated these days, not the most accurate. I mean...look at Iowa. Look at Blyth Valley.

Hmmm, in what way was that one not "accurate"?

[Hnv1]

Lieberman is a secuar rightwinger and a racist who believes Arabs and Palestinians are the enemy. The fact that he's at odds with Bibi doesn't mean he will be for a real political change. Accepting the participation of the Joint List would entail a real democratic revolution and I get the impression most of Jewish Israelis are not for democracy, far from that.

On a side note, out of gloomy forecasts for democracy in the Middle East, I am curious to know the results of the coronavirus ballot box. The votes will be counted tomorrow, right? Shas landslide, perhaps?

there were 18 corona precincts, and you won't get a result for them specifically. A friend of mine voted in one in the Sharon, but there were others in Likud areas. so I suppose it's an even spread.

[Oryxslayer]

The fantastical tone of the right (and self-immolating left) is absolutely amazing to me. Likud insists that they will pick off left wing defectors to get a majority. But all the likely suspects have returned serve and rejected the idea. Other right wing leaders insist that Netanyahu will somehow form a government. How? "He just will." Gideon Levy in Haaretz today announced "the majority has spoken!" Indeed it has, against Netanyahu and his atavistic right wing bloc. Even otherwise sober writers and politicians are already handing the government over to Bibi for four more years. Liberman says he won't sit with Bibi and will try to avoid a fourth campaign. But unless he is ready to sit with an ascendent Joint List, he will he sending us back to pols in September.

Math is math. Bibi's "win" was solid, but mostly cosmetic. He has pinned his future to a religious right bloc even at the risk of anathemizing the opposition. That bloc does not have 61 seats and in time it will seem clear enough that Bibi once again cannot form a functioning government. The euphoris on the right equals how the left felt in September. Surely, we thought, Gantz will find a way to make 57 seats into a majority. He'll peel off Likud MKs or coax the Joint List into a minority government. But 57 is and was not 61. And neither, of course, is 59.

One issue here is what is meant by 'majority'. There's still an effective cordon sanitaire against the JL, even if it's cracking. If you read 'majority' as 'majority of the Jewish electorate' such sentiments make a lot more sense, even if they don't work mathematically.

Well by that definition Bibi had a majority since last April. However, that wasn't the media's story then. It's probably because Bibi had 60 votes in the first count, and the first voice is what gets repeated these days, not the most accurate. I mean...look at Iowa. Look at Blyth Valley.

Hmmm, in what way was that one not "accurate"?

Retirement, so the Tories had a greater potential opportunity there than in other seats with a similar lean. It was the first take of the night, and it was the one that stuck when people went to describe the night, even though Workington was probably a better example.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but in that case the "take" was largely accurate - not the case with other things you mentioned.

But we are getting off topic

[BP🌹]

Lieberman is a secuar rightwinger and a racist who believes Arabs and Palestinians are the enemy.

That's also true for Gantz, and in a less overt way even Labor-Gesher-Meretz.

[Walmart_shopper]

There is an emerging consensus that it is easier for Bibi to pick off Peretz and Labor (they have three seats) than anyone from Blue and White. I think that is probably naive. Amir Peretz is not a good leader, but he's not a charlatan. I really feel like if the Bibi bloc is held to 59 seats there likely will not he a government. Apparently the right bloc is kind of swinging between 59 and 60 seats in final (unpublished) counts. Tomorrow should help clarify things quite a bit. If Bibi is stuck with only 59 seats the "miracle victory" nonsense will probably be replaced by an appropriate realism.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Retirement, so the Tories had a greater potential opportunity there than in other seats with a similar lean.

I rather suspect that if the incumbent had run again they might have won it by a little more than they actually did...

[jaymichaud]

There is an emerging consensus that it is easier for Bibi to pick off Peretz and Labor (they have three seats) than anyone from Blue and White. I think that is probably naive. Amir Peretz is not a good leader, but he's not a charlatan. I really feel like if the Bibi bloc is held to 59 seats there likely will not he a government. Apparently the right bloc is kind of swinging between 59 and 60 seats in final (unpublished) counts. Tomorrow should help clarify things quite a bit. If Bibi is stuck with only 59 seats the "miracle victory" nonsense will probably be replaced by an appropriate realism.

LOL no

It was suggested the last two times as well

[Hnv1]

Likud temporarily down to 35 JL up to 16

[DL]

Likud temporarily down to 35 JL up to 16

How do we know its only temporary?

[Hnv1]

Likud temporarily down to 35 JL up to 16

How do we know its only temporary?

Only 92% counted, still without the double envelopes

[Oryxslayer]

Likud temporarily down to 35 JL up to 16

How do we know its only temporary?

Well the most recent vote drop was favorable to all Gantz+ parties, albeit only to the tune of 100K votes total. It's certainly temporary for the List since the double envelopes will be lower their percent by a bit. Not sure about Likud, since the Double Envelopes were previously a B&W group (in total) during election 2, likely meaning this time it will be a wash. The Double Envelopes overall favor the Non-Haredi Jewish parties when compared to the overall percent.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud temporarily down to 35 JL up to 16

How do we know its only temporary?

Well the most recent vote drop was favorable to all Gantz+ parties, albeit only to the tune of 100K votes total. It's certainly temporary for the List since the double envelopes will be lower their percent by a bit. Not sure about Likud, since the Double Envelopes were previously a B&W group (in total) during election 2, likely meaning this time it will be a wash. The Double Envelopes overall favor the Non-Haredi Jewish parties when compared to the overall percent.

My guess is that when all is said and done the Likud will gain a seat and Shas will drop one. So Bibi ought to be left with 58-59 mandates for his "greatest win of (his) political career."

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/lahavharkov/status/1205010955110879232?s=21

Lol, they did it. Madmen.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/lahavharkov/status/1205010955110879232?s=21

Lol, they did it. Madmen.

Based, as they used to say

[Hnv1]

And back to 36 and 15

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/lahavharkov/status/1205010955110879232?s=21

Lol, they did it. Madmen.

The guy at the right end of the second row looks to be....rubbing his nose??

[Former President tack50]

At this rate can't wait for a Joint List majority government some time around 2045 after the 35th Israeli election in a row

[jaymichaud]

At this rate can't wait for a Joint List majority government some time around 2045 after the 35th Israeli election in a row

Ghost of Azmi Bishara for PM.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

"Interesting" take on where Jewish votes for JL might be coming from