Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

The immunity process is not going to end before the election and then it will have to start over

I actually think that is not correct. Once a Knesset special committee denies a request for immunity not only is the immunity process self-evidently over but it cannot be revived with a new Knesset, either.

[Hnv1]

The immunity process is not going to end before the election and then it will have to start over

I actually think that is not correct. Once a Knesset special committee denies a request for immunity not only is the immunity process self-evidently over but it cannot be revived with a new Knesset, either.

I should start taking legal bets here.

Anyhow, it’s a semi judicial process with attorneys and he has very good attorneys who can drag it out. The formation of the committee will be challenged in the SC, and the decision of the committee either way could be challenged. This is not going to take 2-3 weeks.

[jaymichaud]

Moshe Kahlon is retiring from politics. Can’t say I’ll miss him- he stood for nothing.

[Hnv1]

Moshe Kahlon is retiring from politics. Can’t say I’ll miss him- he stood for nothing.

Already reported it on Friday:) his party lives on with the incoming Welfare Minister to mooch more money through party funding.

Israel politics at the moment has no room for a party between Likud and B&W.

Labour and Meretz are heading for a joint run followed by a post election breakup. Peretz basically wants to be in B&W’s future coalition and they aren’t going to get Meretz in.

[jaymichaud]

Moshe Kahlon is retiring from politics. Can’t say I’ll miss him- he stood for nothing.

Already reported it on Friday:) his party lives on with the incoming Welfare Minister to mooch more money through party funding.

Israel politics at the moment has no room for a party between Likud and B&W.

Labour and Meretz are heading for a joint run followed by a post election breakup. Peretz basically wants to be in B&W’s future coalition and they aren’t going to get Meretz in.

I think this is probably for the best. I’m assuming it’ll just be a technical bloc, right?

[Hnv1]

Moshe Kahlon is retiring from politics. Can’t say I’ll miss him- he stood for nothing.

Already reported it on Friday:) his party lives on with the incoming Welfare Minister to mooch more money through party funding.

Israel politics at the moment has no room for a party between Likud and B&W.

Labour and Meretz are heading for a joint run followed by a post election breakup. Peretz basically wants to be in B&W’s future coalition and they aren’t going to get Meretz in.

I think this is probably for the best. I’m assuming it’ll just be a technical bloc, right?

Yes. Though I can’t see both a parties carrying on as independent entities for much longer. I assume that Meretz post election with only 2-3 MKs will go into “liquidation”

[America Needs R'hllor]

Amir Peretz said there's no choice but to unite with Meretz. It's happening, the only obstacle I can see now is Orly Levy. Hopefully the Labour team leads the campaign efforts, Meretz always seems to run awful campaigns. Peretz was basically forced to do it by his MKs, some of them were reportedly threatening to join Meretz or other parties.

According to channel 12: Labour-Gesher going to demand 7 out of the top 10 list, the fight will likely be about whether the 4th Meretz representative (Ilan Gilon, I assume) will be 10th or 11th.

As a side note, Tamar Zandberg gotta be the most useless politician on the left. She lead the effort to stab Stav Shaffir in the back and now she's probably going to take a place that could be given to a politician like Ilan Gilon, who has at least some electoral worth.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

[Hnv1]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

[Hnv1]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

And where will those 3-5 seats go? B&W?

Most of them. 0.5-1 seats would go to the JL. Now that they can’t scare voters we can see their real worth.
B&W would be aiming for the 40 seats and a big gap from Likud for a clear victory picture

[America Needs R'hllor]

Labour-Gesher-Meretz union official. Looks like the top 5 will be this:
1. Peretz
2. Levy
3. Horovitz
4. Zandberg
5. Shmuli

[Hnv1]

Labour-Gesher-Meretz union official. Looks like the top 5 will be this:
1. Peretz
2. Levy
3. Horovitz
4. Zandberg
5. Shmuli

6. Michaeli
7. Golan
8. Gilon
9. Bar Lev
10. Suede
11. Freg


Poor Freg, I thought pushing Shaffir down was to make room for him...oh it was a spin.

I hope they get 7 seats

[Walmart_shopper]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

[Walmart_shopper]

Labour-Gesher-Meretz union official. Looks like the top 5 will be this:
1. Peretz
2. Levy
3. Horovitz
4. Zandberg
5. Shmuli

I have no idea why they're clinging so toghtly to Orly Levy. She isn't very good at politics and would definitely fit in better with Blue and White, which I imagine would be willing to offer her two seats (maybe #25 and #37?). She is taking up such a prominent position as a right winger on a left wing list. Is this Peretz trying to be edgy?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Labour-Gesher-Meretz union official. Looks like the top 5 will be this:
1. Peretz
2. Levy
3. Horovitz
4. Zandberg
5. Shmuli

6. Michaeli
7. Golan
8. Gilon
9. Bar Lev
10. Suede
11. Freg


Poor Freg, I thought pushing Shaffir down was to make room for him...oh it was a spin.

I hope they get 7 seats

Freg is apparently angry now that he's outside the top 10 and is demanding for Golan's reserved spot to be cancelled. What a power-hungry, useless politician. He thinks he speaks for all Arabs for some reason and uses it to backstab other people left and right (mostly left )

I want them to get 10 seats so that Bar Lev and Swid can be in. But looking at this list makes me realize how bad Meretz is- aside from Horovitz I don't really like any of them.

[Hnv1]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

Want to have a bet? Lunch next time I’m in Jerusalem

I’m positive this list gets no more than 7 seats. B&W will get 38, JL 14

[Walmart_shopper]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

Want to have a bet? Lunch next time I’m in Jerusalem

I’m positive this list gets no more than 7 seats. B&W will get 38, JL 14

I'll take that bet. But your prediction is awfully close to mine. I just think the extra Meretz sear will get them close to a left wing majority and one more (so 9) will get them 61. I think they'll get 8. It's just the ninth that I'm uncertain about.

[Walmart_shopper]

Labour-Gesher-Meretz union official. Looks like the top 5 will be this:
1. Peretz
2. Levy
3. Horovitz
4. Zandberg
5. Shmuli

6. Michaeli
7. Golan
8. Gilon
9. Bar Lev
10. Suede
11. Freg


Poor Freg, I thought pushing Shaffir down was to make room for him...oh it was a spin.

I hope they get 7 seats

Freg is apparently angry now that he's outside the top 10 and is demanding for Golan's reserved spot to be cancelled. What a power-hungry, useless politician. He thinks he speaks for all Arabs for some reason and uses it to backstab other people left and right (mostly left )

I want them to get 10 seats so that Bar Lev and Swid can be in. But looking at this list makes me realize how bad Meretz is- aside from Horovitz I don't really like any of them.

Of course Freij is angry. Meretz literally only survived as a party thanks to Arab support and now they're banishing their token Arab member to make room for token right wingers who would be so much better off in Blue and White anyway. Now that supporting the Joint List is increasingly fashionable, Meretz is clearly missing the political wave. But, that being said, with this merger it virtually guarantees that right wing bloc can't get 61 seats without Liberman.

The problem is that Liberman is unreliable.  Labor-Gesher has an interesting tightrope here. They want to siphon off Liberman voters by highlighting Orly Levy, but they don't want to antogonize Liberman enough to push him into Bibi's arms. All I can say is if Gantz and Orlt Levy can steal a few of his seats the left will probably get a majority. But no poll has shoen the left doing that so far.

[jaymichaud]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

Want to have a bet? Lunch next time I’m in Jerusalem

I’m positive this list gets no more than 7 seats. B&W will get 38, JL 14

Lol sorry what

DU and Labor-Gesher got 405k votes between them in September, do you expect 40% of their voterbase to die before March?

I’ll say 10. JL 13, B&W 37. I’ve seen no reason to assume the Joint List will gain more seats- the only thing that will push them to 14/15 is if the Jewish Home fail to meet the threshold and NR underperform.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

Want to have a bet? Lunch next time I’m in Jerusalem

I’m positive this list gets no more than 7 seats. B&W will get 38, JL 14

Lol sorry what

DU and Labor-Gesher got 405k votes between them in September, do you expect 40% of their voterbase to die before March?

I’ll say 10. JL 13, B&W 37. I’ve seen no reason to assume the Joint List will gain more seats- the only thing that will push them to 14/15 is if the Jewish Home fail to meet the threshold and NR underperform.

When you are close to the threshold, a party picks up voters easier since they fear the party missing the threshold and getting 0 seats. It's a rational conclusion that since both parties no longer have to fear that demarcation line, some  'softer' voters will migrate to other left/arab parties. The combined list no longer has the ability to stoke fear and gain those 'fear' voters who might normally be considering similar parties.

[Hnv1]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

Want to have a bet? Lunch next time I’m in Jerusalem

I’m positive this list gets no more than 7 seats. B&W will get 38, JL 14

Lol sorry what

DU and Labor-Gesher got 405k votes between them in September, do you expect 40% of their voterbase to die before March?

I’ll say 10. JL 13, B&W 37. I’ve seen no reason to assume the Joint List will gain more seats- the only thing that will push them to 14/15 is if the Jewish Home fail to meet the threshold and NR underperform.

A substantial amount of Labour and Meretz voters voted out of fear not sympathy. That fear is now gone. Literally no one responded with any positive feedback to this Union. Absolute silence on social media

[America Needs R'hllor]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

Want to have a bet? Lunch next time I’m in Jerusalem

I’m positive this list gets no more than 7 seats. B&W will get 38, JL 14

Lol sorry what

DU and Labor-Gesher got 405k votes between them in September, do you expect 40% of their voterbase to die before March?

I’ll say 10. JL 13, B&W 37. I’ve seen no reason to assume the Joint List will gain more seats- the only thing that will push them to 14/15 is if the Jewish Home fail to meet the threshold and NR underperform.

A substantial amount of Labour and Meretz voters voted out of fear not sympathy. That fear is now gone. Literally no one responded with any positive feedback to this Union. Absolute silence on social media

The only buzz about the union that I'm seeing on social media is negativity about keeping Shaffir out (which is proving an increasingly big mistake).

[jaymichaud]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

Want to have a bet? Lunch next time I’m in Jerusalem

I’m positive this list gets no more than 7 seats. B&W will get 38, JL 14

Lol sorry what

DU and Labor-Gesher got 405k votes between them in September, do you expect 40% of their voterbase to die before March?

I’ll say 10. JL 13, B&W 37. I’ve seen no reason to assume the Joint List will gain more seats- the only thing that will push them to 14/15 is if the Jewish Home fail to meet the threshold and NR underperform.

When you are close to the threshold, a party picks up voters easier since they fear the party missing the threshold and getting 0 seats. It's a rational conclusion that since both parties no longer have to fear that demarcation line, some  'softer' voters will migrate to other left/arab parties. The combined list no longer has the ability to stoke fear and gain those 'fear' voters who might normally be considering similar parties.

Oh come on. No center-left liberal Zionist is going to vote for a party with the Islamic Movement or f**king Balad.

[Hnv1]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

Want to have a bet? Lunch next time I’m in Jerusalem

I’m positive this list gets no more than 7 seats. B&W will get 38, JL 14

Lol sorry what

DU and Labor-Gesher got 405k votes between them in September, do you expect 40% of their voterbase to die before March?

I’ll say 10. JL 13, B&W 37. I’ve seen no reason to assume the Joint List will gain more seats- the only thing that will push them to 14/15 is if the Jewish Home fail to meet the threshold and NR underperform.

When you are close to the threshold, a party picks up voters easier since they fear the party missing the threshold and getting 0 seats. It's a rational conclusion that since both parties no longer have to fear that demarcation line, some  'softer' voters will migrate to other left/arab parties. The combined list no longer has the ability to stoke fear and gain those 'fear' voters who might normally be considering similar parties.

Oh come on. No center-left liberal Zionist is going to vote for a party with the Islamic Movement or f**king Balad.

No. But a left wing Zionist would. JL already pulled around 5-10K of them last time, would be easier now

[danny]

The musical chairs on the right continue, as Smotrich joins with New Right. Peretz now has to decide if he's joining again or going alone with Otzma.