Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

It sounds like Gantz is willing to trade Foreign for Health, which of course makes sense. I never understood why Gantz wanted to be the official diplomatic mouthpiece for a Netanyahu government. I wish Perez would go for Education. That would actually probably justify Labor entering the government at this point.

[Hnv1]

It sounds like Gantz is willing to trade Foreign for Health, which of course makes sense. I never understood why Gantz wanted to be the official diplomatic mouthpiece for a Netanyahu government. I wish Perez would go for Education. That would actually probably justify Labor entering the government at this point.

The foreign minister doesn't get flack for anything but appears like a senior statesman

[Walmart_shopper]

All in all, this seems nearly ideal. Good that annexation probably isn't happening and the door on the 2SS isn't being closed. Sad to see Ohana go, though, and I would have liked to see fewer Hosen ministers, but it's a small price to pay. Hope the fight against the scourge of dikastocracy will still continue. In a true democracy, power needs to be placed firmly in the hands of the parliament; this power should not be watered down by unelected judges with a different agenda. From that point of view, Levin as speaker would at least be good symbolically.

Niesenkorn in Justice. Gantz in defense. And Socialists in Economy. Literally no right winger finds this "nearly ideal." The right wing lost the election and they're paying for it in terms of the most meaningful seats in government. The right wing traded all of that for keeping the ideologically flexible Netanyahu in office for 2 years. Even with Levin as Speaker thhe Likud will not he able to control the legislative agenda. That will push the major policy issues to the ministries, which are now controlled by leftists. And if Bibi wants to remain PM during his trial he can do nothing about it.

With Niesenkorn in Justice almost all of Shaked's reforms will be reversed. That is a big win for the left. And it also ensures that Bibi have zero chance at immunity unless he becomes president.

To be clear, I think as a matter of principle Gantz ahould have stayed out. But most right wingers are genuinely dismayed at how much power Netanyahu is giving the left. Very practically Gantz has ensured that not only will Bibi be gone within two years, but that the left will have more influence than it's had in a decade at least. So I'm not happy about it, but Bibi has traded the government to tue left for his own seat. That is not something anyone but Bibi's most ardent supporters are happy about, and it's why Yamina is losing its mind right now.

[Walmart_shopper]

It sounds like Gantz is willing to trade Foreign for Health, which of course makes sense. I never understood why Gantz wanted to be the official diplomatic mouthpiece for a Netanyahu government. I wish Perez would go for Education. That would actually probably justify Labor entering the government at this point.

The foreign minister doesn't get flack for anything but appears like a senior statesman

And the health minister will be prime minister if he sends the military to Bnei Brak and Jerusalem and saves the country from Corona.

[CumbrianLefty]

All in all, this seems nearly ideal. Good that annexation probably isn't happening and the door on the 2SS isn't being closed. Sad to see Ohana go, though, and I would have liked to see fewer Hosen ministers, but it's a small price to pay. Hope the fight against the scourge of dikastocracy will still continue. In a true democracy, power needs to be placed firmly in the hands of the parliament; this power should not be watered down by unelected judges with a different agenda. From that point of view, Levin as speaker would at least be good symbolically.

Niesenkorn in Justice. Gantz in defense. And Socialists in Economy. Literally no right winger finds this "nearly ideal." The right wing lost the election and they're paying for it in terms of the most meaningful seats in government. The right wing traded all of that for keeping the ideologically flexible Netanyahu in office for 2 years. Even with Levin as Speaker thhe Likud will not he able to control the legislative agenda. That will push the major policy issues to the ministries, which are now controlled by leftists. And if Bibi wants to remain PM during his trial he can do nothing about it.

With Niesenkorn in Justice almost all of Shaked's reforms will be reversed. That is a big win for the left. And it also ensures that Bibi have zero chance at immunity unless he becomes president.

To be clear, I think as a matter of principle Gantz ahould have stayed out. But most right wingers are genuinely dismayed at how much power Netanyahu is giving the left. Very practically Gantz has ensured that not only will Bibi be gone within two years, but that the left will have more influence than it's had in a decade at least. So I'm not happy about it, but Bibi has traded the government to tue left for his own seat. That is not something anyone but Bibi's most ardent supporters are happy about, and it's why Yamina is losing its mind right now.

An interesting take - do you think Gantz actually planned all this or just "got lucky"?

[Walmart_shopper]

All in all, this seems nearly ideal. Good that annexation probably isn't happening and the door on the 2SS isn't being closed. Sad to see Ohana go, though, and I would have liked to see fewer Hosen ministers, but it's a small price to pay. Hope the fight against the scourge of dikastocracy will still continue. In a true democracy, power needs to be placed firmly in the hands of the parliament; this power should not be watered down by unelected judges with a different agenda. From that point of view, Levin as speaker would at least be good symbolically.

Niesenkorn in Justice. Gantz in defense. And Socialists in Economy. Literally no right winger finds this "nearly ideal." The right wing lost the election and they're paying for it in terms of the most meaningful seats in government. The right wing traded all of that for keeping the ideologically flexible Netanyahu in office for 2 years. Even with Levin as Speaker thhe Likud will not he able to control the legislative agenda. That will push the major policy issues to the ministries, which are now controlled by leftists. And if Bibi wants to remain PM during his trial he can do nothing about it.

With Niesenkorn in Justice almost all of Shaked's reforms will be reversed. That is a big win for the left. And it also ensures that Bibi have zero chance at immunity unless he becomes president.

To be clear, I think as a matter of principle Gantz ahould have stayed out. But most right wingers are genuinely dismayed at how much power Netanyahu is giving the left. Very practically Gantz has ensured that not only will Bibi be gone within two years, but that the left will have more influence than it's had in a decade at least. So I'm not happy about it, but Bibi has traded the government to tue left for his own seat. That is not something anyone but Bibi's most ardent supporters are happy about, and it's why Yamina is losing its mind right now.

An interesting take - do you think Gantz actually planned all this or just "got lucky"?

Gantz wanted a minority government. Levy, Handel, and Hauser prevented him from getting it. So it came down to a risky fourth election in 8 or 9 months from now or giving Bibi those 9 months plus a year in exchange for a small revolution in governing ideology. Justice, Defense, Economy, Finance and Health are really the most important seats right now, and it's not even close. Gantz will have all but one of them if he can pry away health from Litzman. I think the left definitely got the better end of the deal here. But the State of Israel lost by keeping a man on trial for serious felonies as PM. In no case do I think the right won anything, and if they lose Health and especially Education they basically lose the whole government. People complain that Bibi owned Gantz, amd he did. But even more than that he owned his idological bloc, which is delightful.

[America Needs R'hllor]

All in all, this seems nearly ideal. Good that annexation probably isn't happening and the door on the 2SS isn't being closed. Sad to see Ohana go, though, and I would have liked to see fewer Hosen ministers, but it's a small price to pay. Hope the fight against the scourge of dikastocracy will still continue. In a true democracy, power needs to be placed firmly in the hands of the parliament; this power should not be watered down by unelected judges with a different agenda. From that point of view, Levin as speaker would at least be good symbolically.

Niesenkorn in Justice. Gantz in defense. And Socialists in Economy. Literally no right winger finds this "nearly ideal." The right wing lost the election and they're paying for it in terms of the most meaningful seats in government. The right wing traded all of that for keeping the ideologically flexible Netanyahu in office for 2 years. Even with Levin as Speaker thhe Likud will not he able to control the legislative agenda. That will push the major policy issues to the ministries, which are now controlled by leftists. And if Bibi wants to remain PM during his trial he can do nothing about it.

With Niesenkorn in Justice almost all of Shaked's reforms will be reversed. That is a big win for the left. And it also ensures that Bibi have zero chance at immunity unless he becomes president.

To be clear, I think as a matter of principle Gantz ahould have stayed out. But most right wingers are genuinely dismayed at how much power Netanyahu is giving the left. Very practically Gantz has ensured that not only will Bibi be gone within two years, but that the left will have more influence than it's had in a decade at least. So I'm not happy about it, but Bibi has traded the government to tue left for his own seat. That is not something anyone but Bibi's most ardent supporters are happy about, and it's why Yamina is losing its mind right now.

But in hindsight, if they had taken the deal Likud offered in their weak September position, Gantz would be Prime Minister in a few months.

[Hnv1]

All in all, this seems nearly ideal. Good that annexation probably isn't happening and the door on the 2SS isn't being closed. Sad to see Ohana go, though, and I would have liked to see fewer Hosen ministers, but it's a small price to pay. Hope the fight against the scourge of dikastocracy will still continue. In a true democracy, power needs to be placed firmly in the hands of the parliament; this power should not be watered down by unelected judges with a different agenda. From that point of view, Levin as speaker would at least be good symbolically.

Niesenkorn in Justice. Gantz in defense. And Socialists in Economy. Literally no right winger finds this "nearly ideal." The right wing lost the election and they're paying for it in terms of the most meaningful seats in government. The right wing traded all of that for keeping the ideologically flexible Netanyahu in office for 2 years. Even with Levin as Speaker thhe Likud will not he able to control the legislative agenda. That will push the major policy issues to the ministries, which are now controlled by leftists. And if Bibi wants to remain PM during his trial he can do nothing about it.

With Niesenkorn in Justice almost all of Shaked's reforms will be reversed. That is a big win for the left. And it also ensures that Bibi have zero chance at immunity unless he becomes president.

To be clear, I think as a matter of principle Gantz ahould have stayed out. But most right wingers are genuinely dismayed at how much power Netanyahu is giving the left. Very practically Gantz has ensured that not only will Bibi be gone within two years, but that the left will have more influence than it's had in a decade at least. So I'm not happy about it, but Bibi has traded the government to tue left for his own seat. That is not something anyone but Bibi's most ardent supporters are happy about, and it's why Yamina is losing its mind right now.

So as hawkish government with a socialist policy. sounds like a double  nightmare for me, I almost with Bennett will be the chancellor instead of Katz just to balance Peretz in Industry and psycho Heimovitc in environmental protection

[Walmart_shopper]

I'll also add that for all the above reasons, Netanyahuay balk at forming a government after all. He always prefered a fourth election, anyway, because it would keep him in office for a while and still give him a shot at an immunity majority. He really has nothing to lose here, while Gantz, who just broke his bloc, has everything to lose. That is both why his decision to join the government when he did was a bad idea and why he may be pushed into concessions that will make the left's loot less impreaaive (and thus further weaken his base of support).

Reports right now are that negotiations are "stuck," which is basically what people expected to happen once Bibi realized that he had Gantz in a headlock.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah right, thought the above scenario was maybe a bit too good to be true......

[Walmart_shopper]

From Raviv Drucker it sounds like Gantz has offered to give up Foreign for Education, too, which is wonderful. Edelstein is apparently not yielding on the Speaker position. Frankly, he is a lot less scary than Levin, even though the symbolism of him as Speaker is really bad. If Gantz can get Education and Health in return for Edelstein as Speaker and Katz as Foreign Minister I dare say that's a small coup for the left.

As far as I can tell, the most important seats in order are:

Prime Minister
Justice
Defense
Health
Finance
Speaker
Public safety
Education
Interior
Economy

Getting three of the top four is an ideological tremor for the left, especially if they can put Niesenkorn in at Justice over Troper, who is more of a centrist.

[America Needs R'hllor]

From Raviv Drucker it sounds like Gantz has offered to give up Foreign for Education, too, which is wonderful. Edelstein is apparently not yielding on the Speaker position. Frankly, he is a lot less scary than Levin, even though the symbolism of him as Speaker is really bad. If Gantz can get Education and Health in return for Edelstein as Speaker and Katz as Foreign Minister I dare say that's a small coup for the left.

As far as I can tell, the most important seats in order are:

Prime Minister
Justice
Defense
Health
Finance
Speaker
Public safety
Education
Interior
Economy

Getting three of the top four is an ideological tremor for the left, especially if they can put Niesenkorn in at Justice over Troper, who is more of a centrist.

Public Safety?

[Hnv1]

From Raviv Drucker it sounds like Gantz has offered to give up Foreign for Education, too, which is wonderful. Edelstein is apparently not yielding on the Speaker position. Frankly, he is a lot less scary than Levin, even though the symbolism of him as Speaker is really bad. If Gantz can get Education and Health in return for Edelstein as Speaker and Katz as Foreign Minister I dare say that's a small coup for the left.

As far as I can tell, the most important seats in order are:

Prime Minister
Justice
Defense
Health
Finance
Speaker
Public safety
Education
Interior
Economy

Getting three of the top four is an ideological tremor for the left, especially if they can put Niesenkorn in at Justice over Troper, who is more of a centrist.

Public Safety?

I assume he mistranslated Interior Security for the Police minister

[Hnv1]

Democracy doesn't equal liberal democracy, it can also mean the right of an (ethnically or culturally defined) people to govern itself. The core of Zionism is the right of the Jewish people to have a national homeland, and if there is a conflict between that and liberal principles (as enshrined in the constitution) then you can't just assume that the latter takes precedence for every Zionist. If one were to follow your logic you can't be a Zionist unless you believe in liberal principles incl. minority rights, and that's a meaningless definition.

Are you implying there exist alternative forms of democracy based on ethnicity, such as ''Jewish democracy'', ''Arab democracy'', or ''Chinese democracy''? I don't think so

I concur that Zionism and liberal democracy are not indivisible. Far from that, the mainstream rightwing revisionist Zionism is blatantly racist and illiberal. But there's a brand of liberal Zionism that tries to reconcile the notion of ethnic state with the principles of liberal democracy, as it's enshrined in the constitution. In case of conflict (unavoidable), it seems clear many Zionists give precedence to ethnicity

Descriptively of course there is, there exists democracies which satisfy the majoritarian principle and have an ethnic constitutional basis. You might not think that it’s *desirable*, or that any democracy should always contingently come with an absolute equality before the law (still reconcilable with ethnic democracy), or even a stronger case where no there should be no ethnic trait to the state (and the problem lies here).

I am not a big fan of democracy, nation states, or any popular based institution. But your claim is too rigid if you also want to maintain a group right of self determination. Or as a matter of fact enable non liberal societies to move towards a liberal path an ethnic democracy might be a necessary pre condition.

Could you provide examples of ''ethnic democracies''? The subject would be fascinating to be discussed in another board, as well the right to self determination (its true meaning, in which cases it's enforceable, which people has precedence in case of territorial conflict...). I'd say that Israel is a particular case and most western democracies have constitutions based on liberal principles, but...

In any case, I think democracy is both defined by the majority rule and by the scrupulous respect for minorities. When the Israeli government tries to disenfranchise (even partially) its official Arab minority with the Nation State Law, it's undermining one of the pillars of democracy. Let alone the existence of a consolidated 'status quo', in fact a one-state reality. Israel extends beyond the pre-1967 border to incorporate the West Bank and the Golan Heights. Given that it's unlikely that Israel resigns territorial gains, the Jewish state or the 'ethnic democracy' seem only possible by the disenfranchisement of nearly 1/2 of the population between the Jordan and the Sea

Most of the European state are ethnic democracies to a degree, even liberal Germany has a law of return for German ethnics. France is really the only state with a clear ethnic/nation separation de jure, the rest are on a spectrum. Israel is a bit closer to Central Europe conception of the nation state where the nationality is also strongly linked with ethnicity.

I don’t think your conceptualization excludes ethnic democracies as long as they provide minorities with ample protection either through human rights or through collective autonomy rights (e.g. the danish minority in SH state of Germany).

The Nation State Law night sound bad on paper but I think it has minimal actual effect. SC ruling in Kaadan already established that the Jewish element trumps equality only in regards of immigrations, “once inside the house we are all equal, it’s only the key to the house where lies the difference”.

The problem here is not of definitions but of ambitions, as both (well large parts of) both national movement demand self determination across the entire territory the conflict arise and then escalated to aggressive steps to solidify power like the disenfranchisement or the discrimination in land laws against Arabs.

But that is a debate about concrete facts, not of conflicting conceptual schemata

The right of return in Germany may well be related to the post-war context, with millions of Germans fleeing former eastern territories and Central European countries. The question to determine whether Germany is an 'ethnic democracy' (I tell you that concept sounds horrible, due to its historical impications) is not the right of return. Does German Basic Law define Germany as ''The Nation of German People'', in the same fashion as Israel with the Jewish people?

With regard to the ethnic character of Central European nations ,-that is more accentuated with regard to Western democracies- and the protection of minorities, Hungary is an illustrative example of illiberal government mistreating the non-Hungarians. Orban's regime might be, in a sense, a mirror for the 'ethnic democracy' envisioned by the Israeli right (and more centrist emements as well)

The Nation State Law enshrines the notion that Israel is not a state for all its citizens, but only the state for its Jewish majority (excluding disrnfranchised Palestinians, of course). The second-class condition of the official Arab minority is consecrated. Such legiation inspired by 'ethnic democratic' principles is radically illiberal and undemocratic. There is a difference between the majority rule and the tyranny of the majority that you are missing. Ethno-nationalism and liberal democracy are not really compatible

If what you care about here is political philosophy then of course Ethnic democracies exist, the only question is whether it is a metaphysical necessity that they will be not be liberal democracies at desired bar. I don’t think this is the case but it’s goes beyond the scope of this thread. If you want to have a thorough political philosophy discussion on it no problem but I don’t think this (thread) is the proper place for it.

If it’s about Zionism than I don’t really care as I’m not really a Zionist according to the standard definition so I’m not going to defend what I don’t care about. I think you should read Chaim Gans, A Just Zionism: on the morality of the Jewish state (2008). Weight the arguments and decide for yourself

[jaymichaud]

Sa’ar has came out against appointing so many ministers- says the government shouldn’t be spending so much money during a crisis.

[brucejoel99]

Sa’ar has came out against appointing so many ministers- says the government shouldn’t be spending so much money during a crisis.

God willing, the members of Likud will eventually have the sense to elect Sa'ar to be their leader.

[Walmart_shopper]

From Raviv Drucker it sounds like Gantz has offered to give up Foreign for Education, too, which is wonderful. Edelstein is apparently not yielding on the Speaker position. Frankly, he is a lot less scary than Levin, even though the symbolism of him as Speaker is really bad. If Gantz can get Education and Health in return for Edelstein as Speaker and Katz as Foreign Minister I dare say that's a small coup for the left.

As far as I can tell, the most important seats in order are:

Prime Minister
Justice
Defense
Health
Finance
Speaker
Public safety
Education
Interior
Economy

Getting three of the top four is an ideological tremor for the left, especially if they can put Niesenkorn in at Justice over Troper, who is more of a centrist.

Public Safety?

I assume he mistranslated Interior Security for the Police minister

Yeah, Gilad Erdan's position.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sa’ar has came out against appointing so many ministers- says the government shouldn’t be spending so much money during a crisis.

God willing, the members of Likud will eventually have the sense to elect Sa'ar to be their leader.

Having faith in the Israeli left to do the right thing is naivete. Having faith in the Israeli right to do the right thing is clinical insanity.

[America Needs R'hllor]

From Raviv Drucker it sounds like Gantz has offered to give up Foreign for Education, too, which is wonderful. Edelstein is apparently not yielding on the Speaker position. Frankly, he is a lot less scary than Levin, even though the symbolism of him as Speaker is really bad. If Gantz can get Education and Health in return for Edelstein as Speaker and Katz as Foreign Minister I dare say that's a small coup for the left.

As far as I can tell, the most important seats in order are:

Prime Minister
Justice
Defense
Health
Finance
Speaker
Public safety
Education
Interior
Economy

Getting three of the top four is an ideological tremor for the left, especially if they can put Niesenkorn in at Justice over Troper, who is more of a centrist.

Public Safety?

I assume he mistranslated Interior Security for the Police minister

Yeah, Gilad Erdan's position.

I'd definitely argue Education (especially prying it from the hands of the missionaries from Yamina) is far more important than Internal Security, but I see where you're coming from (corruption investigations).

[Walmart_shopper]

In any case, negotiations have broken down over the identity of the Justice minister and various legislative issues, like annexation, and judicial appointment vetoes. It's almost as though, I don't know, joining a government of a prime minister on trial raises a lot of problems, conflicts, and dangers.

The problem for Gantz, of course, is that Bibi prefers a fourth election, he can have a fourth epection of he wants, and he just split the opposition (which may not ultimately matter because the blocs are still 60/60 even with the Gantz/Lapid divorce). The one card Gantz has to play, as Speaker, is to ban Netanyahu from running for PM in a fourth election. Will he play it? It is possible that Labor/Orly Levy will jump to Bibi and leave Gantz in opposition. Handel/Hauser could split away from Gantz, but not without personal consequence and frankly they sound like they will stick with Gantz wherever he goes.

So we'll see where it goes. The pressure on Gantz to fold and make serious concessions to Netanyahu will be strong. I hope he is wise enough to go for a legislative ban on Netanyahu if negotiations don't move.

[brucejoel99]

Sa’ar has came out against appointing so many ministers- says the government shouldn’t be spending so much money during a crisis.

God willing, the members of Likud will eventually have the sense to elect Sa'ar to be their leader.

Having faith in the Israeli left to do the right thing is naivete. Having faith in the Israeli right to do the right thing is clinical insanity.

Oh, I certainly don't have faith that they'll do it. I just wouldn't mind them proving me wrong for once.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Yaakov Litzman, our health minister and leader of UTJ, is positive for Coronavirus. He's pretty old fwiw, but should most likely be fine. He'll get the best doctors I assume. His situation is considered good but it'll probably make him even more irrelevant to the Coronavirus response now- it's mainly Bibi, health ministry head Moshe Bar Siman Tov and Bennet chiming in with some noise.

[brucejoel99]

Yaakov Litzman, our health minister and leader of UTJ, is positive for Coronavirus. He's pretty old fwiw, but should most likely be fine. He'll get the best doctors I assume. His situation is considered good but it'll probably make him even more irrelevant to the Coronavirus response now- it's mainly Bibi, health ministry head Moshe Bar Siman Tov and Bennet chiming in with some noise.

Yeah, that basically makes sense at this point.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Some recent rumours\news: sources from both sides are saying that the sides are very close to an agreement. Edlestein will remain Speaker, Regev will be Internal Security Minister, Nissenkorn will be Justice Minister. It's also looking like KL might exchange the Foreign Ministry for Education, which would mean Yamina in the opposition.

[Walmart_shopper]

Some recent rumours\news: sources from both sides are saying that the sides are very close to an agreement. Edlestein will remain Speaker, Regev will be Internal Security Minister, Nissenkorn will be Justice Minister. It's also looking like KL might exchange the Foreign Ministry for Education, which would mean Yamina in the opposition.

Yes, it looks like Netanyahu is sending the settlers to the opposition and giving Education to KL, which is wonderful for my teacher-wife, kids, and everyone else who thinks that Israeli schools should cram actual learning and not Judaism down stdents' throats. Niesenkorn will be excellent in Justice, but apparently the right and KL will each be given a veto on appointments (like state prosecutor and AG), so perhaps not as much room to reverse Shaked's reforms as I'd hope. Health was staying with Litzman, but a major report just caught him doing Haredi things in violation of his own regulations for the last week (gathering to pray, etc). So I expect KL to demand his resignation. Not sure where Health would go. Edelstein will go to Foreign, which is fine. No clue what is happening with annexation. I assume culture, defense and communications will go to the left, as planned.

So for the left I'd give it a solid B. Really want health, to send Bibi home, and hate to have Regev in internal security. But it's clear that Bibi is giving the government to the left to stay in power and Gantz is giving up a demand to send Bibi home for control over major ministries, the justice system prosecuting Bibi, and the PM seat in two years.