KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[President Johnson]

Wow, Beshear has been elected? What's the chance for a recount?

Anyway, this has zero impact on 2020.

[Devout Centrist]

You and your idiot friend should move to Reddit

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Wow, Beshear has been elected? What's the chance for a recount?

Bevin can ask for one if he wants to, and he almost certainly will, but it won't happen automatically, and whatever judge he asks isn't legally obliged to grant it.

[7,052,770]

Madison County going Democratic is kind of a shocker. Hood didn't win Madison County in his 2015 AG race!

Trends are real?

[7,052,770]

Hughes spent the last 2 years running for LG and is going to do worse than the no-name Dems who ran further down the ballot.  Sheesh. 

And it looks like his House seat has fallen to the Republicans too. Ouch.

Honestly I don't feel that bad for him. The guy has always seemed like kind of a slimeball.

[windjammer]

Atlas mostly predicted that Bevin would win, but NYCMM conceded that Beshear could win by a tiny margin, and I called the state a toss-up. Both of these predictions were ultimately accurate, with the margins being nearly razor thin in this critical red state this year. Our predictions for the Mississippi gubernatorial race also turned out to be on point. Mississippi was won by more than 50%, and the GOP swept every statewide office in Mississippi in the process. The Democrats lost tonight, no doubt, as they've now lost yet another strong incumbent in Dixie, allowing the GOP to free more resources for its Northward offensives.

We predicted that it would be Bevin 51%, Beshear 47%, Libertarian 2%. But also said that there was the possibility that it'd be a <1% win for Beshear.

We predicted that it would be Reeves 53%, Hood 46%, with others making only table scraps off the Democratic table.

We outperformed the Atlas consensus, and I expect that we will be more accurate than the Atlas consensus for the 2020 Presidential Election and in other elections in the future. We are Atlas' ultimate electoral prediction duo.

No you were wrong, you predicted Bevin would win by 4 points.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

NYCMM was certainly correct about Atlas (himself included) being wrong...

You may be somewhat correct regarding one of us; however, NYCMM predicted about a 3% margin when I spoke to him, so if Beshear merely got two extra points at the expense of Bevin, which isn't that far off.

Ah right! Too bad for him that the rest of us can read what he actually predicted...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election#Polling_3

I'm going to give Beshear the 46% in the latest Mason Dixon poll, the Lolbertarian 1%, and the rest to Bevin

Kentucky

Bevin: 53%
Beshear: 46%
Libertarian: 1%

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1191947091461001216?s=20
https://twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1191938610565656576?s=20

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[McNukes™ #NYCMMWasAHero]

NYCMM was certainly correct about Atlas (himself included) being wrong...

You may be somewhat correct regarding one of us; however, NYCMM predicted about a 3% margin when I spoke to him, so if Beshear merely got two extra points at the expense of Bevin, which isn't that far off.

Ah right! Too bad for him that the rest of us can read what he actually predicted...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election#Polling_3

I'm going to give Beshear the 46% in the latest Mason Dixon poll, the Lolbertarian 1%, and the rest to Bevin

Kentucky

Bevin: 53%
Beshear: 46%
Libertarian: 1%

This was non-final. I spoke to him on Monday night.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Did anyone use the line "Kentucky Fried Bevin" yet?

This definitely makes up for someone I personally know, and don't care for (while also being a Republican) becoming my new representative in the New Jersey Assembly. I'm proud to be wrong about Kentucky. It's especially good because now I don't even have to care about the results of the Louisiana gubernatorial election. I was always going to be happy if the Democrats ended up winning at least one of the big three gubernatorial races, and now I am. I will of course be relieved at an Edwards victory on the 16th, should it happen. Virginia too provided some very satisfying results tonight, though those were much more expected. I can't even be disappointed by Mississippi either, I expected even less out of it than I did Kentucky. Sometimes low expectations can reward you with pleasant surprises. Because of those expectations, I have actually found this election night less stressful than last year's-Florida didn't ruin it. Though my own state is a tiny bit.

The burbstomping continues! I mean, sure, it may have been more of a rejection of Bevin than it was an embrace of Beshear, but it ultimately proves that prioritizing the President's ego over issues is costing Republicans and that the trends in the suburbs are real.

It's nice that this year hasn't been such a drought for Democratic electoral wins after all. I really hope that whatever shenanigans Bevin wants to pull doesn't undo this.

Honestly, this narrative kinda annoys me.  The Cincinnati burbs voted solidly R in every other race, and in some races even outperformed Trump2016 (though oc slight underperformance to Romney 2012). This election is just the opposite of "trends are real". Could it be an outlier? Sure. In fact, I'd even say probably so. But there's nothing here today to indicate any real leftwards swing in the Cincinnati burbs Republicans need to be worrying about, unless they're planning to nominate Matt Bevin for Ohio Governor 2022.

[Gone to Carolina]

I whipped this up real quick because I thought this was interesting. Seems that Bevin underperformed the most in a lot of historically GOP rural areas that voted for Goforth in the primary.

[Yellowhammer]

Yeah, Hood's done.  Time to start carving his political epitaph.

I wonder how Brandon Presley would have done...

Hint: he would've lost too

[cvparty]

wow just got back from work but i was so wrong about kentucky. icespear is QUAKING

[DINGO Joe]

KY Politics at the State level are statewide politics but tie into an Historical Narrative, which can trickle into Federal GE Races....

The revival of the Trade Union Movement in the Form of the Teacher's Strikes in Kentucky have revived the memories of older retirees in a heavily white impoverished State.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/13/us/teacher-walkout-kentucky-oklahoma-arizona/index.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2019/03/20/teacher-strike-sickout-kentucky-jcps-wayne-lewis-names-list/3223587002/

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/education/2019/02/28/kentucky-teacher-sickout-strike-due-to-pension-system-bill/3012091002/

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/409014-some-in-kentucky-teacher-strike-were-confused-says-governor

https://apnews.com/3622dc9b61204787a5b5f3da24e409e1


Although this did not directly cripple the KY State Republican Party, it is clear that they got a punch in the face from segments of the electorate that they had expected to win, based upon the popularity of the 'Pub brand on items such as Energy Policy, Social Conservative Religious Platforms, and even possibly even Gun Owners (Although that vast majority of KY Voters have a firearm within their house).

Anybody who chooses to believe that many registered KY DEMs within the Coal Country of SE KY have forgotten their Coal Miner Daughter Roots, let alone Coal Counties of Western Kentucky (Muhlenberg County for one example) have forgotten their Trade Union Ancestral Roots, must be smoking a bigger and stronger form of Crystal Meth than any of the "crackheads" within the declining Timber Mill and Factory Towns of Downstate Oregon....

UMWA Pension Plans have been screwed over from the bosses for a long time, which is currently one of the major items for the rump of the UMWA, while meanwhile there are literally generations of Coal Miners within the tight-knit communities of Appalachia that will always remember and never forget, while meanwhile their kids and grandkids migrate to the bright-lights and big cities of places like Cinci, Indie, Chi-Town....

"Insert John Prine Song from the early '70s"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEy6EuZp9IY

No Question: Beshear's win was directly a result of the Union Movement activists in a heavily Non-Union State, with the small exception of a handful of Public Sector Workers (Teachers, Cops, Firefighters, County, State, and Municipal Employees) that were getting screwed over by the same type of forced "Austerity Politics" we have seen enforced against our rural communities over the decades from both Democratic and Republican Political Leaders alike.

For whatever reason, KY coal was far less unionized than WV, and there are no union coal mines left in KY.  Bloody Harlan actually swung hard towards Bevin in this election, though the coal county swings were generally mixed and minimal.  What won the election for Beshear was a substantial swing in all the "educated" counties in KY (counties with 20% or more of 25 and over with a college degree) and especially in counties with a higher education institution.  Yeah, Bevin definitely made the teachers mad (cause he's a disrespectful jerk) but did they rekindled the union spirit in coal country? no.

[Lechasseur]

Yeah, Hood's done.  Time to start carving his political epitaph.

I wonder how Brandon Presley would have done...

Hint: he would've lost too

Yeah if Hood couldn't win then no Democrat had the slightest chance of winning in MS this year. Hood was the strongest possible nominee the Democrats could have put up.

[lfromnj]

NYCMM was certainly correct about Atlas (himself included) being wrong...

You may be somewhat correct regarding one of us; however, NYCMM predicted about a 3% margin when I spoke to him, so if Beshear merely got two extra points at the expense of Bevin, which isn't that far off.

Ah right! Too bad for him that the rest of us can read what he actually predicted...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election#Polling_3

I'm going to give Beshear the 46% in the latest Mason Dixon poll, the Lolbertarian 1%, and the rest to Bevin

Kentucky

Bevin: 53%
Beshear: 46%
Libertarian: 1%

@Bagel23: you're taller than I expected and that Jon Tester outfit seems to fit you well, I recommend rocking it in college to attract the ladies

Anyway guys, as an Internet addict who keeps finding my way back, here are my last predictions. You can make fun of me if they end up being wrong.

Virginia House and Senate: will go D (I won't even bother researching the exact races in order to predict how much)

Louisiana: Rispone 51.5%, JBE 48.5%; however a JBE 50.1%, Rispone 49.9% result or something along those lines is decently possible; you could say it's between Lean R and Tilt R.

Kentucky: Bevin 51%, Beshear 47%, Libertarian 2%. However, there's a small chance for a Beshear 48.2%, Bevin 48.1%, Libertarian 3.7% style victory. You can say it's Lean R.

Mississippi: Hood can't seem to get beyond 45% in the Hickman Analytics(D) polls, ergo I rate it Likely R, possibly Safe. I predict a result similar to the 2018 MS-SEN Special race between Hyde-Smith and Espy. If you factor in that gubernatorial races can be less partisan, you can predict that Hood can mayyybe get up to 48%. I'd still predict something like 50% Reeves, 48% Hood, 2% Third Party. There exists the possibility that it'll be something more like 54% Reeves, 45% Hood, 1% Third Party. And you could even argue that it's possible that Hood will get less than 45%.

Right now the likeliest option for me is something like 53% Reeves, 46% Hood, 1%Third Party.

Edit: by the way I'll do my best not to pop in again until the Iowa Caucus results. Again, normally my 'internet addiction' wouldn't be a problem if I was content to have a regular life, but I yearn for something far more ambitious.

Edit2: Also my hot take for the Iowa Caucus this far out is that there is a decently greater chance of Warren+Buttigieg being in the Top 2 than Bernie+Biden being in the Top 2. Again, I don't have faith in those geezers.

Be fair

[NOVA Green]

Turns out there were just a lot of ultra-GOP outstanding precincts in Hattiesburg's county.  Reeves won it by 1.7.

Good Point Extreme 'Pub....

As you well know and we have discussed on various other threads, precinct level results in many parts of the "Dirty South" can dramatically change county level electoral final results....

Dating my age with this link...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiuEFG0ZBd8

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Did anyone use the line "Kentucky Fried Bevin" yet?

This definitely makes up for someone I personally know, and don't care for (while also being a Republican) becoming my new representative in the New Jersey Assembly. I'm proud to be wrong about Kentucky. It's especially good because now I don't even have to care about the results of the Louisiana gubernatorial election. I was always going to be happy if the Democrats ended up winning at least one of the big three gubernatorial races, and now I am. I will of course be relieved at an Edwards victory on the 16th, should it happen. Virginia too provided some very satisfying results tonight, though those were much more expected. I can't even be disappointed by Mississippi either, I expected even less out of it than I did Kentucky. Sometimes low expectations can reward you with pleasant surprises. Because of those expectations, I have actually found this election night less stressful than last year's-Florida didn't ruin it. Though my own state is a tiny bit.

The burbstomping continues! I mean, sure, it may have been more of a rejection of Bevin than it was an embrace of Beshear, but it ultimately proves that prioritizing the President's ego over issues is costing Republicans and that the trends in the suburbs are real.

It's nice that this year hasn't been such a drought for Democratic electoral wins after all. I really hope that whatever shenanigans Bevin wants to pull doesn't undo this.

Honestly, this narrative kinda annoys me.  The Cincinnati burbs voted solidly R in every race, and in some races even outperformed Trump2016 (though oc slight underperformance to Romney 2012). This election is just the opposite of "trends are real". Could it be an outlier? Sure. In fact, I'd even say probably so. But there's nothing here today to indicate any real leftwards swing in the Cincinnati burbs Republicans need to be worrying about, unless they're planning to nominate Matt Bevin for Ohio Governor 2022.

Yeah, in fact, Beshears dad carried the exact same burb counties back in 2011, but with an even bigger share of the vote. Not exactly Dallas County...

[Sir Mohamed]

Congrats for Andy Beshear and one of the worst GOP govs gone. Mr. Trump obviously isn't enough of a force to get people vote for a gov with a horrible resume.

With Bevin out, is there a chance he challenges McConnell again? It would be hilarious.

[NOVA Green]

KY Politics at the State level are statewide politics but tie into an Historical Narrative, which can trickle into Federal GE Races....

The revival of the Trade Union Movement in the Form of the Teacher's Strikes in Kentucky have revived the memories of older retirees in a heavily white impoverished State.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/13/us/teacher-walkout-kentucky-oklahoma-arizona/index.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2019/03/20/teacher-strike-sickout-kentucky-jcps-wayne-lewis-names-list/3223587002/

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/education/2019/02/28/kentucky-teacher-sickout-strike-due-to-pension-system-bill/3012091002/

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/409014-some-in-kentucky-teacher-strike-were-confused-says-governor

https://apnews.com/3622dc9b61204787a5b5f3da24e409e1


Although this did not directly cripple the KY State Republican Party, it is clear that they got a punch in the face from segments of the electorate that they had expected to win, based upon the popularity of the 'Pub brand on items such as Energy Policy, Social Conservative Religious Platforms, and even possibly even Gun Owners (Although that vast majority of KY Voters have a firearm within their house).

Anybody who chooses to believe that many registered KY DEMs within the Coal Country of SE KY have forgotten their Coal Miner Daughter Roots, let alone Coal Counties of Western Kentucky (Muhlenberg County for one example) have forgotten their Trade Union Ancestral Roots, must be smoking a bigger and stronger form of Crystal Meth than any of the "crackheads" within the declining Timber Mill and Factory Towns of Downstate Oregon....

UMWA Pension Plans have been screwed over from the bosses for a long time, which is currently one of the major items for the rump of the UMWA, while meanwhile there are literally generations of Coal Miners within the tight-knit communities of Appalachia that will always remember and never forget, while meanwhile their kids and grandkids migrate to the bright-lights and big cities of places like Cinci, Indie, Chi-Town....

"Insert John Prine Song from the early '70s"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEy6EuZp9IY

No Question: Beshear's win was directly a result of the Union Movement activists in a heavily Non-Union State, with the small exception of a handful of Public Sector Workers (Teachers, Cops, Firefighters, County, State, and Municipal Employees) that were getting screwed over by the same type of forced "Austerity Politics" we have seen enforced against our rural communities over the decades from both Democratic and Republican Political Leaders alike.

For whatever reason, KY coal was far less unionized than WV, and there are no union coal mines left in KY.  Bloody Harlan actually swung hard towards Bevin in this election, though the coal county swings were generally mixed and minimal.  What won the election for Beshear was a substantial swing in all the "educated" counties in KY (counties with 20% or more of 25 and over with a college degree) and especially in counties with a higher education institution.  Yeah, Bevin definitely made the teachers mad (cause he's a disrespectful jerk) but did they rekindled the union spirit in coal country? no.

Thanks DINGO Joe... believe we've been buddies for quite a few years on Atlas, and hopefully not confusing you with White Trash, but if not "buddies" at least fellow travelers on a few mutual items of interest....

You are absolutely correct regarding the Unionization of the Coal Sector within KY and WV from an historical perspective.

That was part of the reason for the UMWA Pittston Strike of '89.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pittston_Coal_strike

http://umwa.org/take-action/

Now, you are 100% correct that the last struggle of the UMWA was against Non-Union Mines being generated within Coal Country as part of "Double-Breasting" strategy of the Operators...

https://www.nytimes.com/1993/02/06/us/union-prepares-for-long-strike-at-coal-mines.html

I was in Ohio during the strike of '93 in College and combined with multiple Union Activists brought 3rd Generation Coal Miners from SE OH on speaking tours throughout the Cities, Union Halls, and Universities to explain the struggle within the Coal Fields of Appalachia...

Now, the point you missed was that when you live in smaller rural communities where the jobs dry up in heavily small town and rural communities, is that you drift towards the larger small towns, and towards the larger cities, which like in most of downstate Oregon aren't too plentiful in search of an alternate reality....

Did somehow a bunch of Yuppies invade the "Urban" and "Suburban" areas of Kentucky from elsewhere seeking job opportunities in the Non-Union Auto Plants of KY?

Were there massive swings in military base towns of KY?

Sorry... don't buy the MSM narrative from MSNBC and CNN, and possibly even 'Pub Media that this was somehow a "massive swing in Upper Income Wealthy White 'Burbs in KY".

Might make sense in other parts of the Country, but not in KY.

Teacher Strike was key.... many sons and daughters, grandkids etc of former miners are teachers, cops, and firefighters within all counties and cities in KY and recognize the War Against the Union when they see one....

Apologies if you thought I was directly talking about election results just from SE-KY....

Lived in OH in the early '90s where just recently Anti-Discrimination Bills had been passed to protect folks of Appalachian decent in places like Cinci, Dayton, and Columbus....

Remember, heading over to a Union Demo in East Liverpool, where I got warned from a local who had at least +20 on me, to keep my eyes open in small towns along the Ohio River, because you could robbed at knife point if you don't take it easy....

Didn't give an eff as a punker and never got robbed at knife point in a small Ohio River City with a pop of 5-10k, but yeah stayed on the main streets of towns with 40% youth unemployment rates....

[Matty]

What happened in NJ?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What happened in NJ?

Really bad Democratic underperformance, especially in South Jersey. Jeff Van Drew's old State Senate seat went to a Republican, along with a few Assembly seats.

[Sir Mohamed]

What happened in NJ?

Really bad Democratic underperformance, especially in South Jersey. Jeff Van Drew's old State Senate seat went to a Republican, along with a few Assembly seats.

#trendsarereal

[Skye]

Not to be a killjoy, but the AP still hasn't called the race. I guess there are still a substantial amount of votes to be counted?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not to be a killjoy, but the AP still hasn't called the race. I guess there are still a substantial amount of votes to be counted?

No, there aren't.

The only reason it wasn't called is because Bevin is being a sore loser.